Last night's triumph over the reigning premiers was quite possibly the best Collingwood win since the 1990 grand final. It was certainly the most tense, anyway. The only real contenders are the 2002 Preliminary Final vs. Adelaide, the 02 Qualifying Final against Port, and the 03 Qualifying Final vs. Brisbane. The Adelaide prelim was awesome, but you got the sense the Magpies were going to lose. The Brisbane victory was marred by the fact that we were absolutely thumped by them in the match that counted three weeks later. The 02 QF final was terrific, but was more the product of a Port Adelaide choke-job (Will never forget Burgoyne playing on on the goalline and getting tackled to effectively lose the match). That's why last night was Collingwood's best victory in 17 years. Despite the absence of Judd, Cousins and Kerr, the Eagles were still favourites, due solely to the late change which saw Josh Fraser leave the game. Fraser was the key to this game. If he could hold Cox around the game, the Pies would win the match. Instead, we had the not so mobile Chris Bryan. Cox picked up 27 disposals and was dominant.
There's no doubt about it, the West Coast Eagles were by far the better team for three quarters. They won the ball, ran harder, and had the better forward line entry. Not to mention that they were kicking straight. After an intense first term term, the Magpies dropped off completely. The Pies were in touch at half time due solely to luck. Nothing else. The game looked like it would be over by 3/4 time, with the Eagles leading by 22 points in a low scoring game, coming home with the breeze. But Alan Didak had other ideas.
Didak was injected into the midfield with the hopes of creating a spark, and boy did he deliver.
Didak single-handedly got the Magpies back in the game, winning the clearances and delivering the ball inside 50. His prowess had the Magpies within 4 points at the final break, about 4 goals closer than they deserved to be. The final minutes of the 3rd term decided the match. From there, the rest is history.
The Magpies won the match because they dominated the clearances, had superior fitness, and took their chances in the 2nd half. Here's how I rated everyone's performance:
9/10
Alan Didak - The igniter. Didak turned the tide singlehandedly in the 3rd term, and delivered a crucial goal of brilliance in the last, to give the Pies the lead. His best ever game, as he once again asserted himself as the Magpies most clutch player.
8/10
Dane Swan - 38 disposals says it all. Swan was dominant in the midfield, owning the clearances. His disposal was suspect at times, but his ability to win the ball out of the middle
was magnificent.
Travis Cloke - Last night Travis Cloke had 12 inside 50's. The next best player for either team had 6. That stat is one of the most telling of the night. The Pies had a key forward that could lead out mark from 65-75 and drive the ball inside, the Eagles didn't. Travis was terrific, the best on ground in the 1st half for the Magpies, and kicked the goal in the 3rd term to give the Pies hope.
7/10
Shane O'Bree - O'Bree last night did all that he knows to do - grab the ball and slam it on the boot. And last night he did it pretty damn well. O'Bree's 27 disposals were crucial.
Dale Thomas - An underrated performance by the young gun. Didn't really get his fair due in my eyes. Thomas chased and tackled ferociously. He kicked a clutch goal to put the Magpies ahead with 3 minutes remaining, and went on a game-sealing run in the final minute of the match. An important performance following the letdowns of the past fortnight.
Paul Medhurst - Medhurst did what he does best last night, create a spark. Whenever he got the ball he looked dangerous. He kicked the first goal of the match (albeit tentatively), took arguably the mark of the year, and kicked a crucial goal in the final term.
6/10
Tarkyn Lockeyer - Lockeyer gave a strong solid performance, winning the ball and disposing of it with his usual poise. Nothing magnificent, just a good all-round game.
Martin Clarke - Clarke really is a phenomenon. To play with the confidence and audacity that he has in the past two weeks has been incredible. Another solid game, and played the key role in setting up Pendlebury's game sealing goal.
Leon Davis - Got very little of the ball, but when he did (and even when he didn't) he looked extremely dangerous. Workrate was superb, at one stage giving four legitimate tackling efforts.
Tyson Goldsack - Moneybags gave another solid performance, sure to win over more fans. Puts his body on the line and backs himself every single time.
5/10
Shane Wakelin - Coughed up a handball which lead to an important West Coast goal, but that aside, got the job done. Limited the Big Q superbly.
Heath Shaw - Not his most dominant performance, but provided a solid contribution off the half-back flank.
James Clement - A bizarre performance from the usually reliable Clement. Almost singlehandedly lost the game, gifting West Coast 2 goals. Stepped up in the last quarter and extra time with renewed confidence. Showed some genuine balls to pinpoint Shane O'Bree 3 inches inside the boundary line with 45 seconds left in the 4th term.
Nick Maxwell - Gave a trademark solid knuckled performance, spoiling with his usual conviction and injecting some anger into the proceedings early on.
Harry O-Brien - Rarely seen, but apparently did his job.
Chris Bryan - Looked out of sorts in the ruck, but around the ground was useful. Kicked that vital goal in the first period of extra time to set up the win.
4/10
Scott Pendlebury - Receiving too many accolades for a somewhat mediocre performance. Was magnificent last week, but was restricted by the conditions tonight. Found a fair bit of the ball, but his disposal was poor, consistently lofting the ball over the head of his targets. Almost lost the game with a missed shot on goal late in the last, but kept his composure to nail the game winner in the 2nd period of extra time.
Scott Burns - Disappointing performance from the seasoned veteran. Won a couple of contested possessions, but was obviously hampered by his ankle injury.
Guy Richards - Murdered in the ruck and let Cox run rampant on him. Redeemed himself partially by creating a contest in the late 3rd term ruck contests to give the midfielders a chance.
3/10
Anthony Rocca - Fluked his way to 3 goals. Unintentionally kicked one of them as well. Was beaten in aerial and ground contests comprehensively by Darren Glass. Not only did he not create, but he was burned the other way on a regular basis by the superior Glass. Only bright spot was his clutch goal to bring the Pies to within 4 points at 3/4 time. Only excuse can be an injury, because he did not produce any 2nd efforts tonight.
Nathan Buckley - On a night where champions needed to stand up, the Magpie skipper was disgraced. Disposal was horrible, time and time again favouring around the body snaps to nowhere in particular over drop punts. Gifted Rosa a goal in the dying minutes, and almost gave away a stupid deliberate decision in the final minute. The defining moment of his night was when he missed a regulation shot on the run from 45 metres out in the 1st half. The greatest ever kick of a football has to do better than that.
-1/10
Sean Rusling - Last night Sean Rusling delivered the single worst individual game of football I have ever seen in my entire life. He couldn't hold a mark, dropping numerous sitters, couldn't out-run a man more than ten years his senior with a body breaking down, and most disgustingly, refused to give second efforts. Rusling is so crucial to the structure of this team - next week he needs to stand up.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Sunday, September 2, 2007
September
Few would have expected it at the start of the year, but the Magpies are playing in September, for the 4th time in 6 years.
2007 has been a strange year, not quite as bumpy and bizarre as 2006, but exciting all the same. Collingwood had a strong first half to the year, as they did in 2006, before dropping off again in the later months. There seemed to be games where the Pies just didn't show up (Brisbane @ the G, both Melbourne matches, latter Richmond match), and those were the games that cost the Pies a spot in the top four. The fact is that if you want to finish in the top 4 you have to have a record better than 4-3 against teams in the bottom four. The problem with the Pies this year is that they've struggled against teams better (0-4 vs. West Coast, Port and Hawthorn) and worse than they are (only 4-3 against Bulldogs, Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond), and beat teams of around the same overall quality (8-2 vs. Sydney, Adelaide, St. Kilda, Brisbane, Fremantle, Essendon).
If the Black and White want to do better in the future they have to really put away terrible teams like Richmond and Melbourne. Collingwood's other main problem this year was percentage. Many might put the Woods' percentage worries down to the 93 point thumping to Brisbane (ironically Collingwood's biggest win of the season came against, guess who - Brisbane), but that's not true. Collingwood this year were not able to have a single six-goal victory. Collingwood struggled to 4-goal victories vs. Carlton and Richmond, and limped to an 11 point win over Melbourne. I don't recall there being one match where Collingwood had buried their opponent by 3 quarter time.
Ultimately though percentage has become somewhat irrelevant. Had Collingwood won multiple matches by 300+ points they still wouldn't be in the four.
Anyways that's in the past. It might sound as though I'm putting a somewhat negative spin on what has to be called an unbridled success of a season. When pundits place you 10-14 before the season begins, and come September you're looking at a home final, that's a success of a season. But (allowing the eternal cynicism to take hold again) 2007 has been a disappointing season in many ways. Collingwood have only found consistency in their inconsistency. Dropping games to Richmond and Melbourne hurt. And losing games against the Bulldogs and Hawthorn from winning positions didn't feel good either. Despite being in the finals series, I still view this year as purely a development season for the youngsters. This team isn't going to win a premiership. We lack the midfield speed and ferocity and the rounded experience to win a flag... for now.
Collingwood's problem is that they are too old and too young at the same time. By the time the youngsters mature (Cloke, Pendlebury, Thomas, Shaw, etc) the old guard will be gone (Rocca, Buckley, Burns, Clement? How old is Jimmy anyway?). Anyways, that's another thought for another day.
For now, please drop Richards for Fraser, R. Shaw for Didak, and O'Brien for Licuria. And FUCKING GO WOODS!!!!!!!
2007 has been a strange year, not quite as bumpy and bizarre as 2006, but exciting all the same. Collingwood had a strong first half to the year, as they did in 2006, before dropping off again in the later months. There seemed to be games where the Pies just didn't show up (Brisbane @ the G, both Melbourne matches, latter Richmond match), and those were the games that cost the Pies a spot in the top four. The fact is that if you want to finish in the top 4 you have to have a record better than 4-3 against teams in the bottom four. The problem with the Pies this year is that they've struggled against teams better (0-4 vs. West Coast, Port and Hawthorn) and worse than they are (only 4-3 against Bulldogs, Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond), and beat teams of around the same overall quality (8-2 vs. Sydney, Adelaide, St. Kilda, Brisbane, Fremantle, Essendon).
If the Black and White want to do better in the future they have to really put away terrible teams like Richmond and Melbourne. Collingwood's other main problem this year was percentage. Many might put the Woods' percentage worries down to the 93 point thumping to Brisbane (ironically Collingwood's biggest win of the season came against, guess who - Brisbane), but that's not true. Collingwood this year were not able to have a single six-goal victory. Collingwood struggled to 4-goal victories vs. Carlton and Richmond, and limped to an 11 point win over Melbourne. I don't recall there being one match where Collingwood had buried their opponent by 3 quarter time.
Ultimately though percentage has become somewhat irrelevant. Had Collingwood won multiple matches by 300+ points they still wouldn't be in the four.
Anyways that's in the past. It might sound as though I'm putting a somewhat negative spin on what has to be called an unbridled success of a season. When pundits place you 10-14 before the season begins, and come September you're looking at a home final, that's a success of a season. But (allowing the eternal cynicism to take hold again) 2007 has been a disappointing season in many ways. Collingwood have only found consistency in their inconsistency. Dropping games to Richmond and Melbourne hurt. And losing games against the Bulldogs and Hawthorn from winning positions didn't feel good either. Despite being in the finals series, I still view this year as purely a development season for the youngsters. This team isn't going to win a premiership. We lack the midfield speed and ferocity and the rounded experience to win a flag... for now.
Collingwood's problem is that they are too old and too young at the same time. By the time the youngsters mature (Cloke, Pendlebury, Thomas, Shaw, etc) the old guard will be gone (Rocca, Buckley, Burns, Clement? How old is Jimmy anyway?). Anyways, that's another thought for another day.
For now, please drop Richards for Fraser, R. Shaw for Didak, and O'Brien for Licuria. And FUCKING GO WOODS!!!!!!!
Saturday, August 25, 2007
It's Official
The Magpies are now officially playing finals football in 2007. The only way that the Magpies could miss out on the finals would involve Essendon beating Richmond and West Coast (in Perth) by a combined margin of around 100 points. It would aso require Collingwood to lose to both Sydney and Adelaide. Possible? Yes. Realistic? No.
Now that that the Magpies are in the focus must shift to the allignment within the top 8. Obviously the aim will be to finish 4th, and that is a distinct possibility. The following things must happen for Collingwood to finish 4th:
-Collingwood defeat Sydney and Adelaide by 30 points more than than the Kangaroos defeat Carlton and the Bulldogs.
-Hawthorn lose to either the Bulldogs or Sydney (SCG).
In my eyes the Bulldogs are a mediocre team that lacks strength, defence and a genuine key forward. I can't see them troubling a disciplined side like the Kangaroos, but their running game could upset Hawthorn. I'd expect a defensive and accountable team like Sydney to beat the Hawks, as they did earlier in the year. Keep in mind that should Sydney lose to Collingwood, victory over Hawthorn is essential to their finals aspirations. Geelong will finish 1st. West Coast will finish 2nd. Port Adelaide should finish 3rd. An interesting possibility arises if Geelong absolutely demolish Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium tomorrow (not out of the question). Port's percentage is mighty, but a real 80 point thumping will place them vulnerable to Hawthorn, the Roos and Collingwood.
I don't believe that Collingwood are good enough to win the flag this year, but if they make the 4 anything can happen. Even if they do beat Sydney and Adelaide logic suggests that the Kangaroos will snag 4th spot. If Collingwood lose to Sydney tonight, chances are they will finish 7th and play an elimination final against Hawthorn. That's the worst case scenario for Collingwood. Aside from Geelong and West Coast in Perth, the team Collingwood needs to avoid is Hawthorn. Hawthorn run hard and have the best forward line in the league. The Hawthorn midfield spearheaded by Mitchell, Hodge and Crawford will trample Collingwood. I have every belief that the Magpies can beat Port Adelaide, the Kangaroos and Sydney in finals football. Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast though, diminish my confidence.
So, lets assume that Collingwood beat Sydney and Adelaide, but miss out of the 4 (as they did last year). Lets say they finish 5th and play the team that finishes 8th. Who will that be? Odds are it will be St. Kilda (42 points, plays Richmond R22), Adelaide (40 points, plays Brisbane at home, Collingwood away) or Brisbane (40 points, plays Adelaide away, Geelong at home). If Adelaide finishes 8th, Collingwood won't finish 5th, so that rules out that scenario. Although Collingwood beat St. Kilda during the season, it was in the wet where skills weren't a factor. On a dry night St. Kilda would destroy Collingwood. Believe it or not, the best bet would be against Brisbane. Yes that Brisbane. The same Brisbane that demolished Collingwood by 93 points at the MCG.
But the fact is that Jared Brennan won't kick 7 goals again, and Collingwood would be in much better shape fitness wise. Shut down Jonathan Brown and Collingwood will beat Brisbane in an elimination final at the MCG. In that match at the MCG Collingwood were laconic and error-prone. You wouldn't see that in a final. In that match Collingwood didn't have Buckley or more importantly Clement. With those two playing the Magpies have a defensive general capable and midfield class. Not to mention that those two are Collingwood's main leaders.
So I for one will be barracking for the Lions to knock off Adelaide and Geelong these coming weeks.
Now that that the Magpies are in the focus must shift to the allignment within the top 8. Obviously the aim will be to finish 4th, and that is a distinct possibility. The following things must happen for Collingwood to finish 4th:
-Collingwood defeat Sydney and Adelaide by 30 points more than than the Kangaroos defeat Carlton and the Bulldogs.
-Hawthorn lose to either the Bulldogs or Sydney (SCG).
In my eyes the Bulldogs are a mediocre team that lacks strength, defence and a genuine key forward. I can't see them troubling a disciplined side like the Kangaroos, but their running game could upset Hawthorn. I'd expect a defensive and accountable team like Sydney to beat the Hawks, as they did earlier in the year. Keep in mind that should Sydney lose to Collingwood, victory over Hawthorn is essential to their finals aspirations. Geelong will finish 1st. West Coast will finish 2nd. Port Adelaide should finish 3rd. An interesting possibility arises if Geelong absolutely demolish Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium tomorrow (not out of the question). Port's percentage is mighty, but a real 80 point thumping will place them vulnerable to Hawthorn, the Roos and Collingwood.
I don't believe that Collingwood are good enough to win the flag this year, but if they make the 4 anything can happen. Even if they do beat Sydney and Adelaide logic suggests that the Kangaroos will snag 4th spot. If Collingwood lose to Sydney tonight, chances are they will finish 7th and play an elimination final against Hawthorn. That's the worst case scenario for Collingwood. Aside from Geelong and West Coast in Perth, the team Collingwood needs to avoid is Hawthorn. Hawthorn run hard and have the best forward line in the league. The Hawthorn midfield spearheaded by Mitchell, Hodge and Crawford will trample Collingwood. I have every belief that the Magpies can beat Port Adelaide, the Kangaroos and Sydney in finals football. Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast though, diminish my confidence.
So, lets assume that Collingwood beat Sydney and Adelaide, but miss out of the 4 (as they did last year). Lets say they finish 5th and play the team that finishes 8th. Who will that be? Odds are it will be St. Kilda (42 points, plays Richmond R22), Adelaide (40 points, plays Brisbane at home, Collingwood away) or Brisbane (40 points, plays Adelaide away, Geelong at home). If Adelaide finishes 8th, Collingwood won't finish 5th, so that rules out that scenario. Although Collingwood beat St. Kilda during the season, it was in the wet where skills weren't a factor. On a dry night St. Kilda would destroy Collingwood. Believe it or not, the best bet would be against Brisbane. Yes that Brisbane. The same Brisbane that demolished Collingwood by 93 points at the MCG.
But the fact is that Jared Brennan won't kick 7 goals again, and Collingwood would be in much better shape fitness wise. Shut down Jonathan Brown and Collingwood will beat Brisbane in an elimination final at the MCG. In that match at the MCG Collingwood were laconic and error-prone. You wouldn't see that in a final. In that match Collingwood didn't have Buckley or more importantly Clement. With those two playing the Magpies have a defensive general capable and midfield class. Not to mention that those two are Collingwood's main leaders.
So I for one will be barracking for the Lions to knock off Adelaide and Geelong these coming weeks.
Monday, August 6, 2007
The home stretch
With just four rounds to go we're now well and truly entering the home stretch of season 2007. The finals formation is interesting- whereas last year things were essentially set in stone, this year the team in 13th has a legitimate shot at the finals. This week I'll look at the finals chances and make predictions regarding each finals contender. We start at the top...
Geelong - Current position 1st - Current record 15-3
Run home -Adelaide (SS), Kangaroos (TD), Port Adelaide (SS), Brisbane (G)
There's no doubt that the Cats will finish top of the ladder. With their percentage taken into account, they effectively have a four game lead atop of the ladder. One win of their final four will win them the minor premiership. The Cats have looked magnificent all year and are well and truly the team to beat in September. They're fast, strong and skilled. And most importantly - they are playing as a team. They are strong from one end of the ground to the other, with gun defenders (Scarlett, Harley), gun midfielders (Ling, Bartel, Ablett) and a gun forward (Cameron Mooney). I fully expect them to dismantle Adelaide (too slow) and Port Adelaide (not strong enough). The Kangaroos are a test, but the Cats should pass. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Brisbane is still in finals contention in round 22 (which I assume they will be), the Lions will prevail over the Cats. I expect the Cats to win 3 of their last 4 and finish top of the ladder with a 18-4 record.
Whether or not they take that into the finals I'm not sure. You would assume they'll play the Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Collingwood or Hawthorn in a qualifying final. No team there has the mettle to much the Cats. The only two teams I can see toppling the Cats are West Coast and Sydney. Sydney will obviously have the mental edge (Nick Davis anyone?) and the finals experience, and West Coast's midfield can beat anyone on its day. It's early days yet but I'm going to guess that Geelong are beaten by the Eagles in the grand final this year, but win it in 08 against the same opposition.
Prediction - Adelaide (W), Kangaroos (W), Port Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L)
Final record - 18-4 - Position - 1st
How does this affect Collingwood?
Good news for the Pies, the Cats play four finals contenders in the upcoming weeks. Let's hope they knock all of them off - especially the Kangaroos and Port.
Kangaroos - Current position - 2nd - Current record - 12-6
Run home - West Coast (TD), Geelong (TD), Carlton (TD), Bulldogs (TD)
I don't get the Kangaroos. I've never really paid attention to their games (they rarely play on free-to-air TV) and I just don't get how they keep on winning. On paper they are no better than Richmond or Melbourne (well on paper they're worse than Melbourne). They were tipped as the wooden spooner this year, and deservedly so. But they've defied all the critics, and if the season ended today they'd have a home qualifying final. The word is that they play like a team. They do the one percenters, and help out there mates. Something that much more talented teams like Fremantle and St. Kilda don't do. Every week the Kangaroos go out there and give it there all. All they have needed is one superstar (Brent Harvey) and a solid secondary. Still though, playing as a team can only get you so far (as trite as that may sound). You have to have talent to back it up. The Kangaroos don't have that. That's why I'm fully expecting them to lose to West Coast and Geelong. But you can pencil in a win against Carlton, and the Roos should beat the Doggies (although finals aspirations will be on the line for the Dogs).
The wildcard is that the Roos play all their matches at Telstra Dome. This year at the Dome they're 5-1. They like it there. I doubt the Roos will beat the Eagles or Geelong, and they'll beat Carlton, so the Bulldogs game is the one that counts. The Dogs are famous for loving the Dome, and have a solid record this year there (5-3-1). It's not an exceptional record, but keep in mind they lost two of those matches to a surging Geelong and West Coast. Take those out of play and they're as good as the Roos there.
Prediction - West Coast (L), Geelong (L), Carlton (W), Bulldogs (W)
Record - 14-8
How does this affect Collingwood?
If there's a team Collingwood can knock out the top four it's the Kangaroos. If the Roos finish 14-8, then Collingwood only have to win 3 out of 4 (with one big win out of the three) to leapfrog the Roos, almost certainly into the four. If there's a team Collingwood want losing it's the Kangaroos. If the Bulldogs beat the Kangaroos, Collingwood will be in excellent shape come September.
Hawthorn
Current position - 3rd - Current record - 11-7
Run home - Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (A), Bulldogs (TD), Sydney (SCG)
Just like the Kangaroos the Hawks have risen from the depths of mediocrity to become a team to be reckoned with in 2007. They have a superb fleet-footed midfield and arguably the best forward line in football. Their defence is the weak link, or so you would think - the Hawks have only conceded 100 points or more 3 times this year. They've had some worries with injuries, and Mark Williams' absence hurts them. Just like every other contender, their run home is tough. The match against Brisbane figures to be the match of the round (Sydney vs. St. Kilda forces an argument though), and is pivotal to the aspirations of both teams. Honestly, the loser is fucked. Going on form, I'm going to tip the Lions to prevail. I expect Hawthorn to rebound with a win over Port in Fortress Aurora. The Dogs at the Dome is tough, but I think the Hawks will prevail. Shutdown teams like Sydney and Adelaide have had the Hawks' measure this year, and I don't expect things to change against the Swans in round 22.
Prediction - Brisbane (L), Port Adelaide (W), Bulldogs (W), Sydney (L)
Record - 13-9
How this affects Collingwood
Hawthorn, like the Kangaroos, are a team Collingwood need losing. The Hawks' percentage is so good they almost have a one game advantage over Collingwood. Barring any unforseen circumstances, the Pies need to win more games than Hawthorn to finish in front of them.
Tomorrow... Port Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney
Geelong - Current position 1st - Current record 15-3
Run home -Adelaide (SS), Kangaroos (TD), Port Adelaide (SS), Brisbane (G)
There's no doubt that the Cats will finish top of the ladder. With their percentage taken into account, they effectively have a four game lead atop of the ladder. One win of their final four will win them the minor premiership. The Cats have looked magnificent all year and are well and truly the team to beat in September. They're fast, strong and skilled. And most importantly - they are playing as a team. They are strong from one end of the ground to the other, with gun defenders (Scarlett, Harley), gun midfielders (Ling, Bartel, Ablett) and a gun forward (Cameron Mooney). I fully expect them to dismantle Adelaide (too slow) and Port Adelaide (not strong enough). The Kangaroos are a test, but the Cats should pass. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Brisbane is still in finals contention in round 22 (which I assume they will be), the Lions will prevail over the Cats. I expect the Cats to win 3 of their last 4 and finish top of the ladder with a 18-4 record.
Whether or not they take that into the finals I'm not sure. You would assume they'll play the Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Collingwood or Hawthorn in a qualifying final. No team there has the mettle to much the Cats. The only two teams I can see toppling the Cats are West Coast and Sydney. Sydney will obviously have the mental edge (Nick Davis anyone?) and the finals experience, and West Coast's midfield can beat anyone on its day. It's early days yet but I'm going to guess that Geelong are beaten by the Eagles in the grand final this year, but win it in 08 against the same opposition.
Prediction - Adelaide (W), Kangaroos (W), Port Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L)
Final record - 18-4 - Position - 1st
How does this affect Collingwood?
Good news for the Pies, the Cats play four finals contenders in the upcoming weeks. Let's hope they knock all of them off - especially the Kangaroos and Port.
Kangaroos - Current position - 2nd - Current record - 12-6
Run home - West Coast (TD), Geelong (TD), Carlton (TD), Bulldogs (TD)
I don't get the Kangaroos. I've never really paid attention to their games (they rarely play on free-to-air TV) and I just don't get how they keep on winning. On paper they are no better than Richmond or Melbourne (well on paper they're worse than Melbourne). They were tipped as the wooden spooner this year, and deservedly so. But they've defied all the critics, and if the season ended today they'd have a home qualifying final. The word is that they play like a team. They do the one percenters, and help out there mates. Something that much more talented teams like Fremantle and St. Kilda don't do. Every week the Kangaroos go out there and give it there all. All they have needed is one superstar (Brent Harvey) and a solid secondary. Still though, playing as a team can only get you so far (as trite as that may sound). You have to have talent to back it up. The Kangaroos don't have that. That's why I'm fully expecting them to lose to West Coast and Geelong. But you can pencil in a win against Carlton, and the Roos should beat the Doggies (although finals aspirations will be on the line for the Dogs).
The wildcard is that the Roos play all their matches at Telstra Dome. This year at the Dome they're 5-1. They like it there. I doubt the Roos will beat the Eagles or Geelong, and they'll beat Carlton, so the Bulldogs game is the one that counts. The Dogs are famous for loving the Dome, and have a solid record this year there (5-3-1). It's not an exceptional record, but keep in mind they lost two of those matches to a surging Geelong and West Coast. Take those out of play and they're as good as the Roos there.
Prediction - West Coast (L), Geelong (L), Carlton (W), Bulldogs (W)
Record - 14-8
How does this affect Collingwood?
If there's a team Collingwood can knock out the top four it's the Kangaroos. If the Roos finish 14-8, then Collingwood only have to win 3 out of 4 (with one big win out of the three) to leapfrog the Roos, almost certainly into the four. If there's a team Collingwood want losing it's the Kangaroos. If the Bulldogs beat the Kangaroos, Collingwood will be in excellent shape come September.
Hawthorn
Current position - 3rd - Current record - 11-7
Run home - Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (A), Bulldogs (TD), Sydney (SCG)
Just like the Kangaroos the Hawks have risen from the depths of mediocrity to become a team to be reckoned with in 2007. They have a superb fleet-footed midfield and arguably the best forward line in football. Their defence is the weak link, or so you would think - the Hawks have only conceded 100 points or more 3 times this year. They've had some worries with injuries, and Mark Williams' absence hurts them. Just like every other contender, their run home is tough. The match against Brisbane figures to be the match of the round (Sydney vs. St. Kilda forces an argument though), and is pivotal to the aspirations of both teams. Honestly, the loser is fucked. Going on form, I'm going to tip the Lions to prevail. I expect Hawthorn to rebound with a win over Port in Fortress Aurora. The Dogs at the Dome is tough, but I think the Hawks will prevail. Shutdown teams like Sydney and Adelaide have had the Hawks' measure this year, and I don't expect things to change against the Swans in round 22.
Prediction - Brisbane (L), Port Adelaide (W), Bulldogs (W), Sydney (L)
Record - 13-9
How this affects Collingwood
Hawthorn, like the Kangaroos, are a team Collingwood need losing. The Hawks' percentage is so good they almost have a one game advantage over Collingwood. Barring any unforseen circumstances, the Pies need to win more games than Hawthorn to finish in front of them.
Tomorrow... Port Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney
Round 18
The results...
Bulldogs draw with St. Kilda
Good result for Collingwood. Instead of one team being just a win behind them, we have two teams a win, a draw, and percentage behind them. There's never really been any doubt that Collingwood would make the finals, but this result goes along way to calming the fears of any worried fans. But judging by the way these two teams played on Friday night Collingwood had nothing to worry about in the first place. The problems with the Saints and Bulldogs are obvious - St. Kilda don't play as a team, and the Bulldogs are terrible if they're stagnant. Both of these matters were brought to the forefront on Friday - the Saints looked awful, and the Bulldogs didn't run. When the Dogs did run (in the final quarter) they looked good, but it was too late.
Geelong def. Richmond
Never in doubt was it? No bearing on Collingwood... Richmond are destined to finish last, Geelong likewise to finish first.
Adelaide def. Port Adelaide
A good result for Collingwood. The Crows are two games back of the Pies, and now the Power are only clear of the Pies on percentage. Port obviously struggle in the wet... just not against Collingwood or St. Kilda.
Brisbane def. Kangaroos
Yet another good result for Collingwood. The Kangaroos are now within striking distance, and the Lions are still a game and a half behind the Pies. This match should also lift the spirits somewhat of Pie players and fans. This shows that Brisbane are truly a force, they've now towelled up West Coast in Subiaco, Collingwood at the MCG and the Kangaroos. Imperative that Collingwood avoid them in the finals.
Sydney def. Melbourne
Never in doubt either. Sydney are building, so the Pies are going to want to beat them come Round 21. Here's hoping for a thumping St. Kilda victory next week in what proves to be the match of the round.
Hawthorn def. Essendon
Bad result for Collingwood, but it's always good to see the enemy fall. Wouldn't worry too much about the Hawks. They didn't look great and they have a hellish run home(it includes Brisbane, Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs).
Fremantle def. West Coast
A fantastic result for Collingwood. The Eagles are too good not to make the four, but an injury to Cousins, Judd or Kerr (a distinct possibility for the first two) and some bad luck could see the Magpies sneak ahead of them. Regardless the Eagles don't have the easiest run home. They play the Kangaroos at the Dome next Sunday in what looms as an important match. Any result helps Collingwood's cause, although a Kangaroos loss would be preferable. Back to the Western Derby though. Had the match remained tighter in the final minutes this probably would have been the match of the season. There's no doubt in my eyes that right now this is the best rivalry in Australian sports. Collingwood vs. Carlton has lost a bit with Carlton's perennial mediocrity, so the Eagles vs. Freo takes top spot. Such a hotly contested, intense contest. These guys genuinely hate each other. I'm dying for a West Coast vs. Fremantle final in Subiaco. Props to Freo for getting over the line. A magnificent performance that keeps their season alive. They have the ability to make the finals, they just like inspiration. Also, Josh Carr's performance yesterday ranks as by far the best individual performance of the season. That was inspired.
Bulldogs draw with St. Kilda
Good result for Collingwood. Instead of one team being just a win behind them, we have two teams a win, a draw, and percentage behind them. There's never really been any doubt that Collingwood would make the finals, but this result goes along way to calming the fears of any worried fans. But judging by the way these two teams played on Friday night Collingwood had nothing to worry about in the first place. The problems with the Saints and Bulldogs are obvious - St. Kilda don't play as a team, and the Bulldogs are terrible if they're stagnant. Both of these matters were brought to the forefront on Friday - the Saints looked awful, and the Bulldogs didn't run. When the Dogs did run (in the final quarter) they looked good, but it was too late.
Geelong def. Richmond
Never in doubt was it? No bearing on Collingwood... Richmond are destined to finish last, Geelong likewise to finish first.
Adelaide def. Port Adelaide
A good result for Collingwood. The Crows are two games back of the Pies, and now the Power are only clear of the Pies on percentage. Port obviously struggle in the wet... just not against Collingwood or St. Kilda.
Brisbane def. Kangaroos
Yet another good result for Collingwood. The Kangaroos are now within striking distance, and the Lions are still a game and a half behind the Pies. This match should also lift the spirits somewhat of Pie players and fans. This shows that Brisbane are truly a force, they've now towelled up West Coast in Subiaco, Collingwood at the MCG and the Kangaroos. Imperative that Collingwood avoid them in the finals.
Sydney def. Melbourne
Never in doubt either. Sydney are building, so the Pies are going to want to beat them come Round 21. Here's hoping for a thumping St. Kilda victory next week in what proves to be the match of the round.
Hawthorn def. Essendon
Bad result for Collingwood, but it's always good to see the enemy fall. Wouldn't worry too much about the Hawks. They didn't look great and they have a hellish run home(it includes Brisbane, Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs).
Fremantle def. West Coast
A fantastic result for Collingwood. The Eagles are too good not to make the four, but an injury to Cousins, Judd or Kerr (a distinct possibility for the first two) and some bad luck could see the Magpies sneak ahead of them. Regardless the Eagles don't have the easiest run home. They play the Kangaroos at the Dome next Sunday in what looms as an important match. Any result helps Collingwood's cause, although a Kangaroos loss would be preferable. Back to the Western Derby though. Had the match remained tighter in the final minutes this probably would have been the match of the season. There's no doubt in my eyes that right now this is the best rivalry in Australian sports. Collingwood vs. Carlton has lost a bit with Carlton's perennial mediocrity, so the Eagles vs. Freo takes top spot. Such a hotly contested, intense contest. These guys genuinely hate each other. I'm dying for a West Coast vs. Fremantle final in Subiaco. Props to Freo for getting over the line. A magnificent performance that keeps their season alive. They have the ability to make the finals, they just like inspiration. Also, Josh Carr's performance yesterday ranks as by far the best individual performance of the season. That was inspired.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Nick Maxwell
Nick Maxwell has been one of the most pleasing characters in Collingwood's return to the top flights of the AFL. In fact over the past two years he's been just about the most reliable and consistent performer in the Collingwood team. He's been the genuine cog in defense, shutting down his man and always getting across to help teammates. He's also established himself as one of the best spoilers in the league. Lately though Malthouse has placed the young leader inside the forward line. The idea seems to be that Maxwell's excellent pressure and attack on the ball will help lock the ball inside the Magpies 50. The plan seemingly worked against the Lions as Maxwell kicked four goals, the only bright spot in the 93-point thumping. But honestly, I'd much rather see him in the backline. The Magpies defense of late has been relatively inexperienced with Presti and Clement out, so Malthouse's thinking must be that now they've returned, he can free up Maxwell to go inside attacking 50. I think that's a mistake.
The fact is that Collingwood have one of the weakest ruckmen in the league, and don't have any gun midfielders. Teams like Hawthorn, the Bulldogs, West Coast and Geelong have murdered them in the midfield. In finals footy the Pies aren't going to get as many inside 50s as their opponents. That's a fact. And that's why the defence needs to be at its strongest. A defensive lineup of Jimmy Clement, Presti, Wakes, Heath Shaw, Harry O'Brien and Nick Maxwell has to be just about the best in the league. The forward line is still strong, with targets in Travis and Pebbles, and Didak and Leon at their feet. The fact is that the defence needs Nick Maxwell more than the attack does. It seems as though Mick Malthouse wants a legitimate third marking option up front, and Paul Medhurst has not been the answer. Instead of turning to Maxwell Malthouse should look at rotating Josh Fraser, Dale Thomas and maybe Scott Burns in the forward 50. At least until the return of Bucks and Sean Rusling.
The fact is that Collingwood have one of the weakest ruckmen in the league, and don't have any gun midfielders. Teams like Hawthorn, the Bulldogs, West Coast and Geelong have murdered them in the midfield. In finals footy the Pies aren't going to get as many inside 50s as their opponents. That's a fact. And that's why the defence needs to be at its strongest. A defensive lineup of Jimmy Clement, Presti, Wakes, Heath Shaw, Harry O'Brien and Nick Maxwell has to be just about the best in the league. The forward line is still strong, with targets in Travis and Pebbles, and Didak and Leon at their feet. The fact is that the defence needs Nick Maxwell more than the attack does. It seems as though Mick Malthouse wants a legitimate third marking option up front, and Paul Medhurst has not been the answer. Instead of turning to Maxwell Malthouse should look at rotating Josh Fraser, Dale Thomas and maybe Scott Burns in the forward 50. At least until the return of Bucks and Sean Rusling.
Shaky, but a win is a win
Carlton 14.12 96 Collingwood 18.12 120
Admittedly the Pies didn't look very good out there today but as they seem to do time and time again this year, with their backs to the wall they pulled out the goods. After the travesty that was last Saturday night the boys had to respond strongly against the old foe. This was the perfect opportunity to atone for last week's embarassment. The Pies picked up the victory but you sense that Blues fans would have left the ground feeling better than the black and white. The Blues fought hard against a better opponent and almost stole a victory. What is worst of all though is not the Bluebaggers strong effort, but the reaction and excuse fans of the sworn enemy have put up - tanking. Worst of all is the fact that they may have a point.
With seven minutes to go and the game in the balance Brendan Fevola came off the ground. Fevola was on fire and well and truly had Presti's measure. But Brett Ratten elected to take him off at the most pivotal stage in the game (much like Malthouse did with Buckley in a game in late 2005). By the time he returned the game was over.
Enough about the enemy though, because as determined as they've looked the past two weeks they are still three years away from competing for the finals. The Magpies were the only team on team on the field today that actually mattered in the grand scheme of things. The Pies needed a statement victory today, but they didn't quite pull it off. Again we looked shaky in the midfield, at times unable to halt momentum, and yet again hugging the wings. A football team looks best when using the corridor, and the Magpies don't seem to do that. Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Brisbane killed Collingwood by using the corridor, the Magpies need to adjust. You don't win premierships by spearing targets along the wings. You win them by running through the middle of the ground.
The defence wasn't too sharp today either. For the second week in a row an opposition player booted six goals. Malthouse has to be smarter with matchups. With Wakelin out (surely the no. 1 guy for Fev) Malthouse had a setback before the opening bounce. Essentially there were four options. A rusty James Clement, a young Harry O'Brien, Nick Maxwell fresh off a dominant performance in the forward line, or veteran Presti. Malthouse opted with Presti, which was the wrong decision. Presti simply wasn't fast enough. Malthouse should have started O'Brien on Fev, and then later in the game a warmed up Jimmy Clement (if necessary).
The forward line was the main positive today. When Travis Cloke and Anthony Rocca combine for nine goals Collingwood will win the match, as was the case today. Travis looked good, kicking an important last quarter goal after a nice dummy. But unfortunately he yet again missed a key set shot due to his unorthodox kicking style. The difference between Travis Cloke being a Wayne Carey or a Matthew Richardson will be whether or not he adjusts his set-shot kicking style. Anthony stepped up in a big way today. After basically being non-existent for seven quarters of football (dating back to the Lions game), Rocca was the game-changer in the final term. He was a presence and kicked the goals that needed to be kicked.
The Black and White army once again showed that they've got guts, with an awesome last quarter. Although not as impressive as the St. Kilda or Kangaroos fightbacks, the Pies showed that they wanted it more today. The veterans Rocca, Lockeyer and then Burnsy all came up with clutch 4th quarter goals to win the match. And fine play by Daisy to take the mark and kick the goal to kick-start the final term.
All in all today was a narrowly averted disaster, and certainly not something to be overly proud of. But nonetheless the boys got the four points, get back on the winners list, and are now just a win against Richmond away from finals footy.
Admittedly the Pies didn't look very good out there today but as they seem to do time and time again this year, with their backs to the wall they pulled out the goods. After the travesty that was last Saturday night the boys had to respond strongly against the old foe. This was the perfect opportunity to atone for last week's embarassment. The Pies picked up the victory but you sense that Blues fans would have left the ground feeling better than the black and white. The Blues fought hard against a better opponent and almost stole a victory. What is worst of all though is not the Bluebaggers strong effort, but the reaction and excuse fans of the sworn enemy have put up - tanking. Worst of all is the fact that they may have a point.
With seven minutes to go and the game in the balance Brendan Fevola came off the ground. Fevola was on fire and well and truly had Presti's measure. But Brett Ratten elected to take him off at the most pivotal stage in the game (much like Malthouse did with Buckley in a game in late 2005). By the time he returned the game was over.
Enough about the enemy though, because as determined as they've looked the past two weeks they are still three years away from competing for the finals. The Magpies were the only team on team on the field today that actually mattered in the grand scheme of things. The Pies needed a statement victory today, but they didn't quite pull it off. Again we looked shaky in the midfield, at times unable to halt momentum, and yet again hugging the wings. A football team looks best when using the corridor, and the Magpies don't seem to do that. Hawthorn, the Bulldogs and Brisbane killed Collingwood by using the corridor, the Magpies need to adjust. You don't win premierships by spearing targets along the wings. You win them by running through the middle of the ground.
The defence wasn't too sharp today either. For the second week in a row an opposition player booted six goals. Malthouse has to be smarter with matchups. With Wakelin out (surely the no. 1 guy for Fev) Malthouse had a setback before the opening bounce. Essentially there were four options. A rusty James Clement, a young Harry O'Brien, Nick Maxwell fresh off a dominant performance in the forward line, or veteran Presti. Malthouse opted with Presti, which was the wrong decision. Presti simply wasn't fast enough. Malthouse should have started O'Brien on Fev, and then later in the game a warmed up Jimmy Clement (if necessary).
The forward line was the main positive today. When Travis Cloke and Anthony Rocca combine for nine goals Collingwood will win the match, as was the case today. Travis looked good, kicking an important last quarter goal after a nice dummy. But unfortunately he yet again missed a key set shot due to his unorthodox kicking style. The difference between Travis Cloke being a Wayne Carey or a Matthew Richardson will be whether or not he adjusts his set-shot kicking style. Anthony stepped up in a big way today. After basically being non-existent for seven quarters of football (dating back to the Lions game), Rocca was the game-changer in the final term. He was a presence and kicked the goals that needed to be kicked.
The Black and White army once again showed that they've got guts, with an awesome last quarter. Although not as impressive as the St. Kilda or Kangaroos fightbacks, the Pies showed that they wanted it more today. The veterans Rocca, Lockeyer and then Burnsy all came up with clutch 4th quarter goals to win the match. And fine play by Daisy to take the mark and kick the goal to kick-start the final term.
All in all today was a narrowly averted disaster, and certainly not something to be overly proud of. But nonetheless the boys got the four points, get back on the winners list, and are now just a win against Richmond away from finals footy.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
Starting out
Hey guys, just getting things off the ground around here. Although the title may not allude to it clearly, this is a blog dedicated to the Collingwood Magpies (Travis, in reference to prodigal son Travis Cloke). I'll make that clear in time with headings and everything else. I'll check in with a first genuine post soon.
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