The home stretch

With just four rounds to go we're now well and truly entering the home stretch of season 2007. The finals formation is interesting- whereas last year things were essentially set in stone, this year the team in 13th has a legitimate shot at the finals. This week I'll look at the finals chances and make predictions regarding each finals contender. We start at the top...

Geelong - Current position 1st - Current record 15-3
Run home -Adelaide (SS), Kangaroos (TD), Port Adelaide (SS), Brisbane (G)

There's no doubt that the Cats will finish top of the ladder. With their percentage taken into account, they effectively have a four game lead atop of the ladder. One win of their final four will win them the minor premiership. The Cats have looked magnificent all year and are well and truly the team to beat in September. They're fast, strong and skilled. And most importantly - they are playing as a team. They are strong from one end of the ground to the other, with gun defenders (Scarlett, Harley), gun midfielders (Ling, Bartel, Ablett) and a gun forward (Cameron Mooney). I fully expect them to dismantle Adelaide (too slow) and Port Adelaide (not strong enough). The Kangaroos are a test, but the Cats should pass. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if Brisbane is still in finals contention in round 22 (which I assume they will be), the Lions will prevail over the Cats. I expect the Cats to win 3 of their last 4 and finish top of the ladder with a 18-4 record.

Whether or not they take that into the finals I'm not sure. You would assume they'll play the Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Collingwood or Hawthorn in a qualifying final. No team there has the mettle to much the Cats. The only two teams I can see toppling the Cats are West Coast and Sydney. Sydney will obviously have the mental edge (Nick Davis anyone?) and the finals experience, and West Coast's midfield can beat anyone on its day. It's early days yet but I'm going to guess that Geelong are beaten by the Eagles in the grand final this year, but win it in 08 against the same opposition.

Prediction - Adelaide (W), Kangaroos (W), Port Adelaide (W), Brisbane (L)
Final record - 18-4 - Position - 1st

How does this affect Collingwood?

Good news for the Pies, the Cats play four finals contenders in the upcoming weeks. Let's hope they knock all of them off - especially the Kangaroos and Port.

Kangaroos - Current position - 2nd - Current record - 12-6
Run home - West Coast (TD), Geelong (TD), Carlton (TD), Bulldogs (TD)

I don't get the Kangaroos. I've never really paid attention to their games (they rarely play on free-to-air TV) and I just don't get how they keep on winning. On paper they are no better than Richmond or Melbourne (well on paper they're worse than Melbourne). They were tipped as the wooden spooner this year, and deservedly so. But they've defied all the critics, and if the season ended today they'd have a home qualifying final. The word is that they play like a team. They do the one percenters, and help out there mates. Something that much more talented teams like Fremantle and St. Kilda don't do. Every week the Kangaroos go out there and give it there all. All they have needed is one superstar (Brent Harvey) and a solid secondary. Still though, playing as a team can only get you so far (as trite as that may sound). You have to have talent to back it up. The Kangaroos don't have that. That's why I'm fully expecting them to lose to West Coast and Geelong. But you can pencil in a win against Carlton, and the Roos should beat the Doggies (although finals aspirations will be on the line for the Dogs).

The wildcard is that the Roos play all their matches at Telstra Dome. This year at the Dome they're 5-1. They like it there. I doubt the Roos will beat the Eagles or Geelong, and they'll beat Carlton, so the Bulldogs game is the one that counts. The Dogs are famous for loving the Dome, and have a solid record this year there (5-3-1). It's not an exceptional record, but keep in mind they lost two of those matches to a surging Geelong and West Coast. Take those out of play and they're as good as the Roos there.

Prediction - West Coast (L), Geelong (L), Carlton (W), Bulldogs (W)
Record - 14-8

How does this affect Collingwood?

If there's a team Collingwood can knock out the top four it's the Kangaroos. If the Roos finish 14-8, then Collingwood only have to win 3 out of 4 (with one big win out of the three) to leapfrog the Roos, almost certainly into the four. If there's a team Collingwood want losing it's the Kangaroos. If the Bulldogs beat the Kangaroos, Collingwood will be in excellent shape come September.

Hawthorn

Current position - 3rd - Current record - 11-7
Run home - Brisbane (MCG), Port Adelaide (A), Bulldogs (TD), Sydney (SCG)

Just like the Kangaroos the Hawks have risen from the depths of mediocrity to become a team to be reckoned with in 2007. They have a superb fleet-footed midfield and arguably the best forward line in football. Their defence is the weak link, or so you would think - the Hawks have only conceded 100 points or more 3 times this year. They've had some worries with injuries, and Mark Williams' absence hurts them. Just like every other contender, their run home is tough. The match against Brisbane figures to be the match of the round (Sydney vs. St. Kilda forces an argument though), and is pivotal to the aspirations of both teams. Honestly, the loser is fucked. Going on form, I'm going to tip the Lions to prevail. I expect Hawthorn to rebound with a win over Port in Fortress Aurora. The Dogs at the Dome is tough, but I think the Hawks will prevail. Shutdown teams like Sydney and Adelaide have had the Hawks' measure this year, and I don't expect things to change against the Swans in round 22.

Prediction - Brisbane (L), Port Adelaide (W), Bulldogs (W), Sydney (L)
Record - 13-9

How this affects Collingwood

Hawthorn, like the Kangaroos, are a team Collingwood need losing. The Hawks' percentage is so good they almost have a one game advantage over Collingwood. Barring any unforseen circumstances, the Pies need to win more games than Hawthorn to finish in front of them.

Tomorrow... Port Adelaide, West Coast and Sydney