It's Official

The Magpies are now officially playing finals football in 2007. The only way that the Magpies could miss out on the finals would involve Essendon beating Richmond and West Coast (in Perth) by a combined margin of around 100 points. It would aso require Collingwood to lose to both Sydney and Adelaide. Possible? Yes. Realistic? No.

Now that that the Magpies are in the focus must shift to the allignment within the top 8. Obviously the aim will be to finish 4th, and that is a distinct possibility. The following things must happen for Collingwood to finish 4th:

-Collingwood defeat Sydney and Adelaide by 30 points more than than the Kangaroos defeat Carlton and the Bulldogs.
-Hawthorn lose to either the Bulldogs or Sydney (SCG).

In my eyes the Bulldogs are a mediocre team that lacks strength, defence and a genuine key forward. I can't see them troubling a disciplined side like the Kangaroos, but their running game could upset Hawthorn. I'd expect a defensive and accountable team like Sydney to beat the Hawks, as they did earlier in the year. Keep in mind that should Sydney lose to Collingwood, victory over Hawthorn is essential to their finals aspirations. Geelong will finish 1st. West Coast will finish 2nd. Port Adelaide should finish 3rd. An interesting possibility arises if Geelong absolutely demolish Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium tomorrow (not out of the question). Port's percentage is mighty, but a real 80 point thumping will place them vulnerable to Hawthorn, the Roos and Collingwood.

I don't believe that Collingwood are good enough to win the flag this year, but if they make the 4 anything can happen. Even if they do beat Sydney and Adelaide logic suggests that the Kangaroos will snag 4th spot. If Collingwood lose to Sydney tonight, chances are they will finish 7th and play an elimination final against Hawthorn. That's the worst case scenario for Collingwood. Aside from Geelong and West Coast in Perth, the team Collingwood needs to avoid is Hawthorn. Hawthorn run hard and have the best forward line in the league. The Hawthorn midfield spearheaded by Mitchell, Hodge and Crawford will trample Collingwood. I have every belief that the Magpies can beat Port Adelaide, the Kangaroos and Sydney in finals football. Hawthorn, Geelong and West Coast though, diminish my confidence.

So, lets assume that Collingwood beat Sydney and Adelaide, but miss out of the 4 (as they did last year). Lets say they finish 5th and play the team that finishes 8th. Who will that be? Odds are it will be St. Kilda (42 points, plays Richmond R22), Adelaide (40 points, plays Brisbane at home, Collingwood away) or Brisbane (40 points, plays Adelaide away, Geelong at home). If Adelaide finishes 8th, Collingwood won't finish 5th, so that rules out that scenario. Although Collingwood beat St. Kilda during the season, it was in the wet where skills weren't a factor. On a dry night St. Kilda would destroy Collingwood. Believe it or not, the best bet would be against Brisbane. Yes that Brisbane. The same Brisbane that demolished Collingwood by 93 points at the MCG.

But the fact is that Jared Brennan won't kick 7 goals again, and Collingwood would be in much better shape fitness wise. Shut down Jonathan Brown and Collingwood will beat Brisbane in an elimination final at the MCG. In that match at the MCG Collingwood were laconic and error-prone. You wouldn't see that in a final. In that match Collingwood didn't have Buckley or more importantly Clement. With those two playing the Magpies have a defensive general capable and midfield class. Not to mention that those two are Collingwood's main leaders.

So I for one will be barracking for the Lions to knock off Adelaide and Geelong these coming weeks.