Wild card weekend picks

Last week: 3-1 (season: 6-5-1)

ARIZONA (+2) over Atlanta
Atlanta may be the better team, but on the road with a rookie quarterback against a playoff-seasoned veteran in a stadium with fans going crazy is not a situation I like. The shaky way the Falcons beat the Rams last week in a match they absolutely had to win doesn't bode well either.

Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
If Atlanta can get a win in Minnesota in a must-win game I think the Eagles can too. I'm taking the Eagles for three reasons; 1) 44-6 against a desperate and fully stocked Cowboys team is more impressive than 20-19 against a team of reserves with nothing to play for, 2) Adrian Peterson is having trouble protecting the ball, and coming up against an Eagles team that ravaged the ball from Dallas is not the antidote, 3) Tarvaris Jackson.

Baltimore (-3) over MIAMI
Baltimore has as good a chance as anyone to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens are playing as well as anyone right now, and it's entirely conceivable that they could beat Miami, Tennessee and Pittsburgh en route to the Super Bowl. Miami may be the worst 11-5 team of all time. Miami just hasn't beaten any quality opponents this year. Their one really impressive win, over the Patriots in week three was due entirely to the wacky wildcat formation no one had ever seen before. The wildcat formation has lost its wackyness now, and teams are prepared for it. Baltimore is the lock of the week.

SAN DIEGO (+1) over Indianapolis
This is almost criminal. It's ridiculous that an 8-8 team can be hosting a 12-4 team, it really is. The Colts don't match up well with this Chargers team. If MJD can look like OJ against this Colts team, what are a rejuvenated LT and Sproles going to do against this team. Peyton Manning can only will the Colts to a certain amount of wins, the road has to end somewhere, and I think it ends in San Diego.

NFL picks week 17

Last week 2-2 (Season 3-4-1)

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Detroit
This line really is too good to be true. I'd take Green Bay at -16. The Packers have lost their past four games by four points or less and have been the genuine 'good' bad team all season. All the close losses and heartbreak of the season is going to come out with a decimation of the Lions. Lock of the season.

Seattle (+6) over ARIZONA
Love this line almost as much as the Packers line. The Cardinals have been terrible ever since getting edged by the Giants, and they've got nothing to play for here. The Seahawks on the other hand have been playing hard recently and will be keen to send Coach Holmgren out with a win.

Miami (+2.5) over NY JETS
It's all over for the Jets. What I see here in this game is the Dolphins getting out of the gates early - maybe a kickoff return for touchdown, or a Favre interception returned deep into Miami territory - then Pennington consolidating the lead, before the Jets make a furious comeback and fall just short. Take the Dolphins.

SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Denver
The line definitely seems too high but I'm going with it anyway. The reason being that I just think Denver is a terrible team. They get blown out and they lose matches where they are the only team that has anything to gain. The Chargers defence isn't much chop, but Denver's might be the worst in the league.

Week 16 picks

Last week 1-2-1

JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Indianapolis
A bad matchup for Indy. The way to beat the Colts is too simply just pound them with the run, something they don't defend that well. MJD and Fred Jones have been disappointing this year, but they went off against the Colts last time and could definitely do so again. The Jags looked to get things back on track a little last week, and although they might not win, they should cover that huge spread at home.

DALLAS (-4.5) over Baltimore
I think Baltimore is done. The Ravens lose here and they could easily find themselves behind two of the Jets/Dolphins/Pats trio heading into the final week for the final wild card spot. Looking at their schedule Baltimore hasn't beaten one bona fide good team this year, and unfortunately for them you can make the argument that Dallas is the best team in football right now.

NEW YORK (-3) over Carolina
This is pretty much it for the Giants. Last week looked terrible for the G-Men but the one positive they can take out of it is how well they defended the run, which is what the Panthers thrive on. DeAngelo comes down to Earth and the Giants restore a little order.

Green Bay (+4.5) over Chicago
This Green Bay team keeps suckering me in. But still, I don't understand how a team can beat another by almost five touchdowns then be the underdog a little more than a month later.

Week 15 picks

From now on I'm gonna be giving four picks a week. And to change things up, the picks are all going to be against the spread. I'll give the picks for the Sunday and Monday night games (and Thursday night games if that's the case, as it is this week), and then two other games I think have the best chance of getting it done. Here we go (home team in caps)...

New Orleans over CHICAGO (+3)
I really don't think this Chicago team is all that good. Aside from maybe the win over the Colts in the first week they haven't really had a legitimately good win all year. They've lost twice this year at home, and only beat Detroit by 4 points at home as well. And then there's Drew Brees vs. Kyle Orton.

Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE (+1.5)
This Jags team has quit. This is now seven losses on the trot if you count Detroit as a bye. Green Bay has one their 5 games by a combined margin of 92 points. Even when you count the hammering at the hands of New Orleans that Monday night, their 8 losses have been by a margin of just 56. Blame it on the defense, blame it on Rodgers, whatever. Sometimes it's just bad luck. Expect Del Rio's boys to help them out though. Really love this line.

DALLAS over New York (-3)
The Cowboys loss in Pittsburgh might have been the most simultaneously incredibly impressive and incredibly unimpressive performance of the season by any team. The Boys defense was phenomenal, matched the Steelers bit for bit. But the choke-job ensured that until Tony Romo wins a big game he's just another quarterback. The Dallas secondary is all of a sudden a weapon and without Burress to be double teamed, the Cowboys I'm sure will jump head first into the strategy of simply loading the box and stopping the run. If Jacobs doesn't play I can't see the Giants winning or covering, and even if he does I don't like their chances.

Cleveland over PHILADELPHIA (+14)
Before getting blown out in Tennessee the Browns hadn't lost a game by more than 10 points since week three, so that's something to keep an eye on. After two emotion charged wins this sets up as a huge trap game for the Eagles. The Browns aren't going to win this game but they should cover the two touchdown spread.

Blank

All losses hurt. That's a fact. Even if it's an honourable loss, with much gained, there is still pain because, well - you lost. In my eyes there are four different possible reactions to losing.

1. Indifference - This generally happens when the game played meant little or nothing. These occur usually late in the season when your team is either very good or very bad. Very bad teams that lose will produce indifferent reactions from the fans because they're so used to losing and nothing is at stake except draft picks. Very good teams that lose late in the season when they've already secured their spot on the ladder won't really care as the loss has no grand effect on their season, bar a slight halting of momentum.
Example: Round 21 2004 Port Adelaide 107 Collingwood 70
Collingwood weren't anywhere near the eight, and weren't low enough to be competing for the first draft pick. So in essence, who cares about this match? (From a Collingwood perspective anyway).

2. Reasoning - This occurs chiefly after honourable losses. 'Well you know, Team A was a pretty good team and we gave them a real run for their money. The young guys looked really good too'. These are generally the best type of losses as they produce more positives than negatives, irrespective of the result.
Example: Round 7 2006 West Coast 112 Collingwood 98
In Perth against the Judd-Cousins-Kerr Eagles without Buckley and the Pies pushed the Eagles to the limit. A 14 point loss in Subiaco was nothing to be ashamed of and the positives taken out of this game definitely played some part in the three wins that followed immediately after it.

3. Anger - Probably the most typical response to losing. The team loses and your frustrated with any number of things - bad luck, poor quality of the match, poor quality of play from your own team, losing to a rival, umpiring, etc. Almost always this reaction is produced by your team losing to an inferior team.
Example: Round 17 2008 Essendon 128 Collingwood 80
Unfortunately Collingwood is making a habit to lose to inferior teams, so the response of anger is fairly typical. This match was a killer, up against a mediocre Essendon team with little to play for, and we're considered a top four contender and we get hammered by eight goals. Bad times.

4. ... - 99% of the team you meet losses with indifference, reasoning or anger. But there's a reaction beyond those. A reaction where the pain and realisation of the loss is to much to handle so you just go

...

Blank.

It's a combination of the struggle to accept the loss and the refusal to do so. It's like running down the street turning your head to say hello to someone then running straight into the full brunt of a tree. It's a terrible feeling, and one you'll only feel (hopefully) a handful of times in your life. Here are my experiences of these such moments with Collingwood, in reverse order of devastation;

4. 2003 Grand Final Brisbane 134 Collingwood 84
Generally devastating losses that induce the reaction above come from close games. This was a special exception to the rule. The defeat here was so gratuitous, so destructive that it basically numbed me for four quarters and the rest of the night. The thing of it is that Collingwood never were in this match. And the amazing thing, and the thing that makes the loss so devastating, is that Collingwood were favourites. I'm not sure what's more astounding, the fact Collingwood lost so terribly, or the fact that they were favoured to win.

3. Round 9 2002 Port Adelaide 91 Collingwood 86
How could a regular season game so early in the season possibly hurt more than a Grand Final? A combination of things. For anyone who can't remember, this was the game where Anthony Rocca had a set shot from 45 metres out directly in front virtually on the siren to tie the game in Adelaide. He missed. There were other factors though that attributed to the devastation. Firstly, I actually thought Anthony would make the kick. That was his range. The kick itself wasn't that bad, it was close but it was a clear miss. My hopes were raised when Anthony half-heartedly began to raise his fist, but the goal umpire quickly killed those hopes with the pointing of not two fingers, but one. Secondly, it was so pathetic to hear Eddie Maguire commentating that with four seconds left and Port Adelaide kicking out that Collingwood still had a chance. No Eddie, it's over. But for a second you almost thought it wasn't. After the siren a clash ensued and a Cornes was front and central. For a brief second I considered the possibility of a free kick after the siren to Collingwood. Not to be. Just like everything else in this match.

2. 2002 Grand Final Brisbane 75 Collingwood 66
Why is this one more devastating than the 03 final? Because we came so close. Before the match and at quarter time, even with Collingwood leading and the conditions clearly favouring them I had no real expectation of winning. Even at halftime with the game so tight I never fully believed it was actually possible that Collingwood might win. In the third quarter that changed. When Nathan nailed that goal from outside 50 on the boundary I began to believe. Buckley was playing like a champion, Anthony Rocca was playing the game of his life and so was Josh Fraser. But then Jason Akermanis and Michael Voss combined to put the Magpies to rest. As well as my dreams. I basically put my heart in my mouth that entire second half, and hard Jason Fucking Akermanis stick a bullet in it. Even down by 9 points with less than a minute to go I still thought it was possible. Just get one goal then anything can happen from the centre bounce. We never got that chance.

1. 2007 Preliminary Final Geelong 92 Collingwood 87
No matter how many premierships Collingwood win in my lifetime, be it fifteen or zero, I will never fully recover from this loss. The previous three losses left me devastated, but at least they were honest. In 2003 Brisbane were the better team. In the Port Adelaide game Anthony simply missed. In the 2002 Grand Final Brisbane were just that extra bit too good. This was different though, this match left me feeling cheated. The whole season had a fairytale feel to it. The upcoming youth with Thomas, Pendlebury, Cloke and Shaw and then Clarke. In our heart of hearts we knew this would be Bucks' last go around, and the whole season seemingly built up to his return. When his first kick back was an off-balanced 45 metre perfectly weighted pass that led to a Dale Thomas goal we knew this team was something special. The 2003 Pies might have an argument, but I think you could say confidently this unit was the best team of my lifetime. The surprisingly comfortable win over Sydney and the extraordinary nervous breakdown, I mean football match, against West Coast set the scene for the Geelong game. My mates and I gave Collingwood a 1 in 100 chance.

I doubt I'll ever remember a game as vividly as this one. I'll remember Scott Burns kicking the first goal of the match, setting the tone for the whole night. I'll remember Alan Didak's freak goal in the second quarter to ignite Collingwood and the crowd and get them back in the match. I'll remember Paul Medhurst's goal in the third quarter to give Collingwood the lead and send the Collingwood crowd into a roar that still gives me goosebumps just thinking about it. I'll remember Gary Fucking Ablett snapping a goal from 45 metres out (a 45 METRE SNAP!) with Guy Richards making a lackadaisical half-effort to tackle him. I'll remember the seeming eternity it took for the next score after that. And I'll remember the sound of the siren sounding. The siren sounding and the score showing Geelong had more points than Collingwood. I'll remember the complete and total numbness in my body as I simply stood in a crowd of 98, 000 people as though I had the entire stadium to myself. I'll remember standing there replaying in my head when the siren went on the Collingwood 50 metre arc. And I'll remember knowing that all Collingwood needed was five more seconds, one more chance, because I knew that was all we needed to win. But most of all I'll remember seeing Nathan Buckley standing on edge of the MCG grass simply looking up into the sky, soaking up the atmosphere of his final match ever, and at that moment the blankness subsided, albeit temporarily, and the cold reality kicked in - for me and for Bucks, it was over.

Not as clear cut as it seems

Ladies and gentlemen get ready for your 2008 World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the... Los Angeles Dodgers!

That's right, the Dodgers could very well be the World Series. I don't think a 3-1 series deficit has ever been so misleading. The Dodgers have been the better team in three out of four games, but are down 3-1 because of four swings of the bat. The Dodgers have looked much better the past two games. I believe that Cole Hamels will prove to everyone that he's still soft with a weak performance on the road, Chad Billingsley bounces back behind his home crowd and the Dodgers go back to Philly full of confidence. Brett Myers will break down under the pressure and then it'll come down to Lowe vs. Moyer in Game 7, a match where the Dodgers would be favoured. The series rests with Hamels and his arm tomorrow night.

The other series you have to figure is as good as over. 9-1 and 13-4 wins on the road is extraordinary. How has this happened?

a) Upton/Longoria/Pena/Crawford
Combined these guys have 7 HR, 20 RBI, 10 walks and are hitting 23 for 56 (.411). They get big hits and come up strong for their team whenever required. Their were questions about the Rays potency on offense - these guys have made that argument mute.

b) Pitching
Ironically the only Rays big name pitcher (Scott Kazmir) failed miserably while the three lesser lights have shone tremendously. James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have combined for 20.2 innings giving up just 18 hits, 6 walks and 6 earned runs while striking out 13. These guys haven't been overpowering (just 13 K's) but they are pitching with intelligence and poise, and going deep enough to cover up the surprisingly suspect bullpen the Rays have thrown out.

c) Dan Wheeler
You can't overstate how big this guy's performance was in Game 2. Lose that game and let's face it the Rays are probably done. He came in early, messed up, then atoned incredibly. If the Rays win the World Series you can point back to 3.1 innings, 4 K's and 1 hit allowed as the major reason.

d) Defense
The Rays own the best defense in the major leagues and it's showing. Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett has to be about the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. This team manages to turn double plays when they have to, and they do it fantastically.

e) Boston
This Red Sox team just doesn't have it, but it's tough to blame them. Their #1 pitcher and #1 hitter are both injured to the point of being borderline useless. David Ortiz has zero presence at the plate and is 1 for 14 at the plate. Beckett's injury has hurt even more. The ability to throw out a guy and know that he's going to get it done is invaluable in the postseason. Beckett just doesn't have it right now. J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell are injured adding further stress to the lineup. There is too much pressure on Jon Lester to get it done, and if you can retire Pedroia and Youkillis then you've pretty much got the match won. The Red Sox are a fine team, baseball's best shot at a dynasty at present - but it's not going to happen for them in 2008.

Defense

Tony Romo isn't a good quarterback... and neither is Joe Flacco

Tony Romo is the most overrated player in the NFL. I'll stand by that. His success is a product of the players around him and the system that he is in. I genuinely believe that if you were to substitute him with Kurt Warner the Dallas Cowboys would be a football team. It's a bit tough to call Romo a 'bad' quarterback, but at times he really harms his team. He spends way too long in the pocket, tries to force throws, makes careless mental mistakes and refuses to give up on plays. When you're handing the ball off to Marion Barber and Felix Jones, and have Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton as targets obviously you're got an upper hand from the beginning. Romo's not taking advantage of it. On the surface Romo's 24/39 321 yards and 3 TD's is a fantastic game today. But the number that stands out to me is this - 3. 3: the number of times Tony Romo fumbled the ball, in instances due to mental errors and trying to create plays that simply weren't there. On the joke of a rule called the 'tuck rule' Romo avoided a fourth fumble and a subsequent Arizona touchdone. 3: the number of times Romo was sacked, all on occasions where he tried too hard to keep a play going when the best option was to simply throw away the ball.

I can't call Tony Romo a bad quarterback. What I will say though is that he's an overrated one, and he doesn't help his team as much as he should. When he does then maybe we can consider Dallas a genuine contender. On to the rankings.

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
The number one team maintains their position. The teams that follow them - Denver (loss), Buffalo (bye), Pittsburgh (bye), New England (loss) and Baltimore (loss) - didn't exactly do much to state their own case. The number one team until they're defeated.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 4)
There are more talented teams, and certainly more healthy ones, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team with as much heart as the Steelers. The schedule is tough, but given the class and resiliency of this team, especially in their division, they're a virtual lock for the playoffs.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 3)
Are they too young? How they come out of the bye week will speak volumes about the Bills. They're coming off three mediocre performances in a row, and Marshawn Lynch has been quiet of late. Huge game against the Chargers.

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2, LW: -)
They're baaaaaaaaack. Certainly feels like the Colts have woken up. 31 points against the NFL's #1 ranked defense with Peyton, Marvin and Reggie back to their old tricks has to have the rest of the AFC worried. @Green Bay and @Tennessee the next two weeks will be big.

5. Denver Broncos (4-2, LW: 2)
Not looking as good now are they. They're susceptible to the run, and you can't help but feel that the Tampa game might have been an abberation. They'll score a lot, they'll give up a lot, whether or not they'll win a lot is unclear.

6. San Diego Chargers (3-3, LW: -)
In undoubtedly the game of the week the Chargers came out and made a huge statement at home against the reeling Patriots. LT wasn't great but he showed some zip, but the story was Phil Rivers. He only had to throw 27 times for 300+ yards and his now routine trio of TD's. Rivers' willingness to throw the long ball might be the greatest positive difference between this year's Chargers and the teams of 06/07.

On the outside looking in

NY Jets (3-2, LW: -)
The Jets seem like a solid 8-8 or 9-7 football team to me. Despite their wins they're yet to beat a decent team (Miami without the wildcat, an Arizona team that can't play on the road, and the winless Bengals). They might not have to though to get into the playoffs, their schedule is piss easy. They still have games against Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami.
Jacksonville (3-3, LW: -)
Finally they put together a comprehensive performance. That said they were a good matchup for the Broncos with their greatest strength (rushing offense) going against Denver's greatest weakness.
New England (3-2, LW: 5)
I watched the clash against the Chargers and this Patriots team looks awful. The run game is mediocre at best, the secondary can be targeted and then there's Matt Cassel. This guy is terrible. He's reduced the offense to slant passes. He missed Randy Moss open on a long ball by eight or nine yards, and he had three passing opportunities on a goal line play and screwed up all of them. The Patriots aren't making the playoffs with Cassel at the helm.
Baltimore (2-3, LW: 6)
Okay I was wrong, I'll admit it. The Ravens are going anywhere fast. The defense may be great, but it's overrated and it's not going to compensate for the horrible offense. Right now Joe Flacco is simply not a good player. A 1 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio is just awful.

I just want to say that for the first time this year I'm feeling pretty confident about the AFC playoff picture. Tennessee and Pittsburgh seem like pretty sure bets, and you have to expect the Bills to be in there. Obviously one of the Chargers and Broncos will win the division, and the other will probably get the Wild Card. New York, New England and Jacksonville are all a shot at the other Wild Card, but I like the Colts over all of them.

NFC

1. NY Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
The champs stay here at least until tomorrow night.

2. Arizona Cardinals (4-2, LW: 6)
Really? I think it has to be. Who else? The Cardinals have played as well as anyone over the past two weeks beating two of what most would consider to be the top six teams in the league. Kurt Warner runs the offense well, Edge James and Hightower represent a solid running game and Larry Fitzgerald is a freak.

3. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-2, LW: -)
After today I don't think anyone can argue with placing them above Carolina. The run game is good, the defense is excellent, and Jeff Garcia can manage an offense. Put it this way - the Bucs have lost two games this year, both on the road to decent teams by a combined margin of 7 points. Their four wins have come against four teams all at .500 or better by a combined margin of 51 points. Super Bowl team? Probably not. Playoff team? I'd say so.

4. Washington Redskins (4-2, LW: 2)
St. Louis hurts. On the road you could maybe justify it - new coach, players with something to prove - but at home there's no excuses. When Jason Campbell and Santana Moss don't have it going the Redskins offense looks painfully one-dimensional. Clinton Portis will only take this team so far.

5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2, LW: 4)
Enough said at the top really. The Cowboys along with the Chargers are the most talented team in the NFL, there's little question of that. Mentally though they might be the weakest. This team just makes dumb plays. They need to get their act together, and fast.

6. Green Bay Packers (3-3, LW: -)
Big win on the road against the Hawks, great performance from Rodgers. The offense with Rodgers, Jennings, Driver and Grant is dynamite if they can get it together. Driver and Grant need to lift.

On the outside looking in

Minnesota
a) putting up 12 points against Detroit is a worry, b) doing it at home is an even bigger one. The fire the coach chants in Minnesota were well warranted, this team was supposed to be going to the Super Bowl. Teams are just going to stuff Adrian Peterson all day, so a lot of matches are going to hinge on Gus Frerotte's arm. That's not good.
Atlanta
Sorry, still don't buy it. Beating the Bears the way they did was a fluke, there's no other way to put it. Where that game was at with 12 seconds to go or whatever, the Bears will win 98 times out of 100. It just happned to be one of those two times for Atlanta. Still haven't beaten a team with more wins than losses.
Chicago
Pretty incredible, that's the third game they absolutely should have won but lost. Giving new meaning to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Philadelphia
The season would have been flashing before their eyes at three quarter time against the Niners. The Eagles are a good team, but you have to question their all round ability to compete with the other teams in their division. I don't think the Eagles are as good as anyone in the NFC East let alone the Bucs, Panthers, Cardinals and even teams like the Bears and Packers can stand up to the Eagles.

Super Bowl pick
New York, New York.

NFL Week 6 picks

Last week: 6-8 (42-32)

Trying to atone for my miserable 6-8 from last week...

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)
Two of the surprise teams of the year, one more so than the other. I still don't like Kyle Orton despite his decent stats - he inspires zero confidence. I'm actually pretty sure I'd take the QB/RB combo of Ryan/Turner over Orton/Forte. In spite of that I think the Bears win here. Atlanta comes back down to Earth after tight win in Lambeau and the Bears D comes up big. Chicago 27 Atlanta 20

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-3)
Really important match-up for both teams here. This is make or break for the Colts. A loss here and they're 2-4, four games behind in the loss column to the Titans and competing with the Chargers, Patriots, Jags, Jets and co for the Wild Card. Baltimore should run with abandon against the worst rush defense in the league. Peyton Manning won't be on the field much, but I think Baltimore loses another game in the fourth quarter that they should have won. Indianapolis 19 Baltimore 16

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)
Massive win for the Vikes on Monday Night to pretty much keep their season alive. They follow it up with a take care of business game at home against Detroit. Peterson will be wild. Minnesota 37 Detroit 21

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)
Danger game for the Saints because the Raiders aren't that bad. That said Drew Brees doesn't let them lose this one. New Orleans 28 Oakland 23

Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2)
The Bengals are seemingly getting better each week. The Jets game against Arizona was probably their aberration game of the year. If the Jets are to be legitimate playoff contenders these are games they absolutely must win. NY Jets 27 Cincinnati 24

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
Clash of the AFC South titans. Both teams play similar styles, great defense and pound it with a double-headed running game. The edge goes to Carolina in the passing game though. On a last quarter drive who do you want - Jeff Garcia throwing to Antonio Bryant, or Jake Delhomme throwing to Steve Smith? That outweighs home field advantage. Carolina 24 Tampa Bay 14

St Louis (0-5) at Washington (4-1) LOCK OF THE WEEK
Could be ugly. Very ugly. Washington 35 St. Louis 13

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)
The Texans aren't as bad as they look. They've had a shocking schedule with their first four games on the road. They nearly beat the Colts and the Titans too. I like their chances here at home with the Wildcats, er, Dolphins coming back down to Earth. Houston 27 Miami 16

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)
The Jags are really not a good football team. They looked atrocious on Monday night. The running game has become stagnant and the entire offense relies on David Garrard. The defense is no better either, susceptible to the pass. The Jags runners might go wild on the Denver D, but the Denver pass is going to do the same and worse to Jacksonville. Denver 28 Jacksonville 21

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)
Being touted as a danger game all over the place, but Dallas will come out and re-assert their claim as the best team in football. Dallas 36 Arizona 17

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)
Philadelphia might have to win all of their out-of-division matches to make the playoffs, shocking as that sounds. Don't pencil this in as a win though, Frank Gore, JT and the Niners aren't all that bad. That said when good teams need to win they generally do. Philadelphia 26 San Francisco 17.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)
If Seattle lose this one at home against a banged up out of sorts Green Bay I think you could just about call time on their season. If Hasselbeck plays I think they win, if he doesn't they don't. Green Bay 21 Seattle 17

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) UPSET OF THE WEEK
One of the better rivalries in the game right now, and hands down the clash of the week. The Chargers might be the better team but New England are more balanced and better coached. Look for the Pats to place a nail over the San Diego coffin. New England 20 San Diego 15

NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)
Not exactly must-see TV for a Monday night clash. The Giants take care of business and Derek Anderson loses his business. New York 30 Cleveland 19

Someone has to win

The four teams left in baseball are all losers of sorts. We don't have teams like the wildly successful Yankees or Cardinals playing, we've got four teams all built in losing traditions.

The Phillies have just one World Series title, opposed to four losses, which is the lowest for any non-expansion team. Oh yeah and they've lost more matches than any other team in the sport. They've put together a decent team now, and with no clear favourite for the title they'll believe that they're a legitimate shot at their first championship in 28 years.

The Dodgers have six World Series to their credit, but they've lost twice that amount. That, and the heart and culture of the club was formed in their New York days getting beat up on by the Yankees on a regular basis. Right now this team is riding a hot streak, the hottest of the four teams left, and stands probably the better chance of coming out of the NL.

You can't talk about losing without mentioning the Red Sox and Rays, probably the two best examples of the lesser fate in baseball. The Rays are defined as losers. They lose. It's what they do, and what they do best. This is their first season over the 70 win mark, it's extraordinary. What's more extraordinary is that they're probably going in favourites against a team that has won two of the past four World Series titles.

That of course is the Boston Red Sox, who despite the recent success remain the most recognisable loser in all of sports. Unlike the Rays who have simply lost and lost again, the Red Sox won quite a few matches - they just lost all the ones that counted. Now though those days seem to be behind them, they're establishing a dynasty set to imitate the best days of their arch-rivals.

For the record, I like the Dodgers over the Phillies in 6. The offenses are a wash in my eyes. The Phillies might hit for more power but that Dodgers lineup with Furcal, Martin, Manny, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Blake and more is just as dangerous, and more balanced too. Seems like the Phillies depend way too much on Rollins, Howard and Utley, who are going to have to have a big series for the Phillies to stay close. Lowe-Billingsley-Kuroda tops Hamels-Myers-Moyer too. The Phillies might have the best bullpen in the NL, but it's not going to be a huge advantage because the Dodgers might run a close 2nd. In the end though it comes down to this - the Phillies struggled to take down a bad team in four games, while the Dodgers dominated a good team in three. I like the Dodgers.

Red Sox-Rays is virtually impossible to pick. I've yet to see a truly persuasive argument for either. Red Sox starting pitching is better, Rays defense is better, Red Sox offense is better, Rays bullpen is better. The greatest edge I think goes to the Rays in the bullpen area. In the middle innings you can genuinely count on guys like Bradford, Howell and Balfour to get guys out. Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima don't exactly inspire the same confidence. The Red Sox offense is a lot better than the Rays though it must be said. The Rays have one intimidating hitter (Longoria), the Red Sox have four and maybe five. The thing is though that of the four or five guys, David Ortiz is clearly struggling at the plate, J.D. Drew is injured, and Dustin Pedroia had one hit against the Angels. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkillis are good players, but bona fide superstars they are not. Jon Lester is clearly the best pitcher in this series, but the Rays might only have to deal with him twice. Matsuzaka is overrated and Beckett is a shadow of his former self right now. I'll take the Red Sox trio over Shields-Kazmir-Garza, but the gap isn't that great.

I really can't pick a winner here. As unfair as it may sound, I think this series comes down to Evan Longoria's bat. I figure their will be about four, maybe five situations where he'll be in a position where can change the game (bases loaded one out, runners on first and second two out, etc) and if he can come up big in two of three of those I think the Rays win the series. The Red Sox when healthy are clearly the better team, but with Beckett, Drew and Lowell all struggling I'm going with the Rays in 7.

'07 powers failing

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
I don't think anyone can question this team's ranking now. A perfect 5-0 and the undisputed class of the AFC. A 2 1/2 game lead in the AFC South already, this team is built for the long run. Hands down the best defense in the league, a great running game and now a quarterback who can lead them from behind in the dying minutes. At the beginning of the year the schedule looked brutal, but now that we've seen the Colts, Jaguars and Texans to be more or less impotent the run home doesn't look too difficult now.

2. Denver Broncos (4-1, LW: 4)
I'm not in love with this ranking but I think it can be justified. The offense is obviously explosive, the best in the AFC. The win over Tampa Bay was massive, if the defense can play like that all year then the Broncos can win a playoff game or two. The major reason for the high ranking though is the shockingly easy schedule they have.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 2)
Not quite time to panic but pretty close. This is now three consecutive sub-par performances in a row from the Bills, but this time they didn't have Trent Edwards to bail them out in the end. The bye week has come at the right time, hopefully they can get their act together. The home game against San Diego the week after is going to be huge.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 6)
Have to give a lot of credit to Ben Roeslithberger, that's two weeks in a row he's practically willed his team to victory. The helmet catch was incredible, but Big Ben was pulling an Eli on pretty much every play in that second half. The bye couldn't have come sooner.

5. New England Patriots (3-1, LW: 4)
Start to like their chances as the division champions. The team we saw against San Francisco is probably going to be the Patriots team we see for the rest of the year. This Pats team has all the makings of a 10-6 unit.

6. Baltimore Ravens (2-2, LW: -)
Two losses in a row moves you up in my rankings. The Steelers and Titans are two quality teams and Baltimore probably should have beaten both of them. The defense is fantastic and if Joe Flacco can get it together this team is an outside chance at the playoffs.

On the outside looking in:

San Diego (2-3, LW: 3)
Who knows with these Chargers. They looked so good against New York I think I might have overrated them. No excuses for losing to Miami. Phil Rivers has come back down to Earth, LT is injured and the defense is terrible. With Denver's lead the Chargers absolutely must beat New England.
Miami (2-2, LW: -)
This Miami team is extraordinary. To be a 1-15 team one year and then beat the two teams that played off in the championship game convincingly the next is amazing. I still can't buy them totally though. I want to see them take care of Houston first.
Indianapolis (2-2, LW: -)
Speaking of extraordinary, how is this team not 0-4? And even more to the point, how is this team in a position to possibly being 0-4? This Colts team has played terribly, but by virtue of luck and some Manning they can still turn it around. They can't afford to keep on playing like this though, the upcoming stretch is brutal. Baltimore, @ Green Bay, @ Tennessee, New England, @ Pittsburgh. Ouch.
Jacksonville (2-3, LW: -)
This team is really not good. I watched the Sunday night clash against Pittsburgh and this team inspires no confidence. The defense is mediocre and the running game is easily stuffed. They're basically dependent on David Garrard's arm to win matches, and that's not really a good thing. I can't see this team making the playoffs, winning half their games is going to be hard enough a task.

NFC

1. New York Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
Everything's shaping up nicely for the G-men. Eli has well and truly taken the leap now, the defense is fantastic and the running game is great too. The best all-round team in the game right now.

2. Washington Redskins (4-1, LW: -)
Okay, now I'm buying it. You can write off one remarkable win, but to beat Dallas and Phildadelphia back-to-back on the road means your the real deal. The defense is stout and Clinton Portis might be the best back in the game right now. The schedule gets much easier now too. A real danger team.

3. Carolina Panthers (4-1, LW: 3)
You know, if I had to bet on one team to make the playoffs it might well be these Panthers. The NFC South is really not that strong, and the Panthers are just a fantastic all round team. Good on defense, good in the air, good on the ground. They just don't seem to have the extra level to maybe match it with the truly elite, but we'll see.

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-1, LW: 2)
The half-hearted win against the Bengals might be more troubling than the loss to the Redskins. This is a game that they absolutely should have won by four touchdowns, but were one fluke play away from having to deal with Carson Palmer marching down the field to win the match. They'll still make the playoffs, but the defense is beatable and Tony Romo hasn't shown himself to be the quarterback we thought he was.

5. Minnesota Vikings (2-3, LW: -)
With Tampa's and Chicago's impotent offenses, Green Bay's injuries and inexperience, I like the Vikes to come out of the North right now. The run game and the defense against the run is one of the best in the league. You can not run against this time. Loved Gus Frerotte bringing the deep ball on Monday night too.

6. Arizona Cardinals (3-2, LW: -)
Three weeks, three different winners I have coming out of the dreary West. After Seattle's performance on the weekend I don't think you can consider them at this point. The 49ers are close, but the Cardinals might be better all round.

On the outside looking in:

Chicago (3-2, LW: 5)
I just don't like the offense. Kyle Orton is not a good quarterback, and against good teams when they fall behind they're going to struggle. Really struggle.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, LW: 4)
A victim of their surroundings. In the NFC West the Eagles might go 13-3 and get a bye in the first week. But in the East the Eagles look like a 9-7 team that finishes outside the playoff bracket. They are a very good team, but with Westbrooke's troubles they just aren't quite there.
Tampa Bay (3-2, LW: -)
Putting up 13 points against Denver is not a good sign. The quarterback situation is too messed up to consider this team a contender.
Green Bay (2-3, LW: -)
I still like this team, but losing to Atlanta at home is worrying. By the time they get it together with health they might be too far out to contend.

Super Bowl pick: It's the New York Giants. The most complete team in the league now that Eli Manning has truly made the team his own. More composed than Dallas, better than the Redskins, and their advantage on offense outweighs their disadvantage on defense when compared to the Titans.

Jxxxx Bxxxxx Sxxxxxx

NFL week 5 picks

Last week: 8-5 (Season: 36-24)

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)
Carolina are in great shape to really grab hold of the NFC South these upcoming weeks. After hosting Kansas they go @Tampa, New Orleans, Arizona, BYE, @Oakland, Detroit, @Atlanta. In this upcoming stretch before the bye even if they only go 2-2, they should be looking to take all three games after the bye which would have them at 8-3 and a near lock for the playoffs. 2-2 is a conservative estimate though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers didn't drop a game until Week 13 at Green Bay. Love the look of them. Steve Smith played a good game against Atlanta, and Jake Delhomme is a quarterback that can take them deep into January. Kansas City are pretenders, Larry Johnson won't have another game like that this year. The Panthers D is a lot tougher than Denver's as well. Carolina 31 Kansas City 14

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-4)
The goal line stand against Philly, and Brian Westbrook's absence, probably saved Chicago's season last Sunday. 1-3 in a relatively decent division is a hole that would be difficult to escape. Minnesota will probably tell you that come January. Must-win take care of business game here for the Bears. Possible danger game, I think the Lions are better than what they've shown so far this year. If the Lions get ahead early, say 14-3 or something, they're a great chance to go and win. Kyle Orton is not a quarterback you want to trust to lead you when you're behind. That said I think Devon Hester is due for a big special teams play and the Chicago defense should do enough to win. Chicago 30 Detroit 24

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)
Really important game for Green Bay here, for obvious reasons. Green Bay was my Super Bowl pick out of the NFC in the preseason and two weeks in that was looking pretty good. Now not so much. The secondary is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is questionable and Ryan Grant has done nothing. That said I think come Sunday they grind out a tough win, with or without Rodgers. I think Ryan Grant breaks loose and the Packers get back over .500. Green Bay 21 Atlanta 17

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)
This Miami team is impossible to figure. They beat the Patriots, were one play from beating the relatively decent Jets, but were blown out by the mediocre Cardinals. I think the Jets game is probably the best indication of where they stand. I'm guessing Ronnie Brown gets shut down by the Chargers defense, LT goes wild and Phil Rivers throws multiple touchdown passes. San Diego 37 Miami 21.

Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)
Must win here for the Giants to assert themselves at the top of the NFC East. They have to take care of business these coming weeks (Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) because the schedule afterwards is not fun. After Week 7 they don't have an easy game. Seattle looms as a danger team. Matt Hasselbeck is healthier and has some toys now. No Plax will matter. Similar to the Cincinnati win I think the Giants escape in a close one. NY Giants 24 Seattle 23

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
I'm still not buying these Redskins. They looked so bad against New York back in week one. They escaped narrowly against the Saints and Cardinals which makes the win in Dallas all the more incredible. Common sense dictates that they're better than the loss in the Meadowlands, but not as good as the win in Texas. On the other hand I think Philly are the real deal. In two games that could have gone either way they came up on the short-end. They could easily be 4-0. A real must-win for them here, a 2-3 hole in the East could be fatal. That enough should be inspiration to get them over the line. Philadelphia 27 Washington 20

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) UPSET OF THE WEEK
This game could go to OT with the scores locked at 0-0. Both defenses are fantastic and both offenses are pretty impotent. At this point in time I think the Titans are the class of the AFC, but I think the Ravens are a team that can give them some problems. I like the look of this Ravens team, they were very unlucky not to beat the Steelers and go to 3-0. With some plays by the defense and special teams, as well as the hostile Baltimore crowd I think the Ravens eke out a tough win here. Baltimore 14 Tennessee 9

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)
Massive danger game here for the Colts. They haven't looked good this year, and away to the Texans, a decent home team that isn't as bad as advertised, they could be in some trouble. Steve Slaton will probably go wild against the weak Colts run defense, but Peyton Manning can have a day out against this defense. It'll be tight, but the Colts should get over the line. Indianapolis 28 Houston 20

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)
Two teams not as good as their records indicate. The Broncos could, and probably should, be 1-3 and the Bucs have won a pair of games that could have gone either way. It's a great offense against a great defense, but the game will probably be won or lost on the other side. Trust Earnest Graham to have a good game and run the clock to keep Jay Cutler off the field. Tampa Bay 24 Denver 20

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)
Hard to figure out this Arizona team. Giving up 56 points to the Jets offense, a slightly above offense at best, is unforgivable. At home they should bounce back a bit, but I still like the Bills in this game. The Bills have played back-to-back mediocre grind it out matches against weak teams, so they'll want to put in a good performance against the Cards. Expect Trent Edwards to have a good game against the weak Arizona secondary. Buffalo 34 Arizona 24

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)
We'll have a much better idea of where the Pats stand after this game. Both of these teams are coming off hugely disappointing performances, but the Pats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong. The Miami game was so bizarre and unlikely I think you have to throw it out the door. The Patriots team I expect to see for the rest of the season will resemble the team that played smart football to beat the Jets back in week two. A winnable game for San Francisco here, but New England should get over the line. New England 20 San Francisco 13

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)
A winless team without its starting quarterback against a juggernaut with something to prove. Not a good combination for Bengals fans. This could get ugly, and I mean really ugly. It should be high scoring enough that the Bengals don't embarass themselves too much. Dallas 47 Cincinnati 24

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The injuries that the Steelers have suffered combined with the short turnaround after the emotion charged win against Baltimore adds up nicely for Jacksonville. Jacksonville still hasn't played a comprehensive game yet, but they should be able to show the Steelers that they can win without the heroism of Josh Scobee. Jacksonville 32 Pittsburgh 14

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)
If the Vikings are down at any stage in the last quarter the season will be flashing before their eyes. The alleged Super Bowl contenders are a good shot at being 1-4 after Monday night's clash with the Saints. The Vikings pass defense is its greatest weakness, not a good thing with Drew Brees on the mound. 400 yards from Brees is more likely than not. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 24

Playoff predictions

Thanks to Danks and Thome the White Sox are in the playoffs. The matchups are now set, and games kick-off tomorrow. No better time to analyse them.

NL

Phildadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Expect a few 15 run games. The balance of quality offense vs. quality pitching here is shocking. The Brewers have Sabathia and that's it. Philly has Hamels (not so good lately), Myers (even worse) and Moyer (64 years old). Offensively though we're going to see Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. It probably won't be pretty but the series will be exciting.

Hard to see the Phillies losing this series. Offensively the teams are a wash, with maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. But on the pitching front the Phillies win out. You have to expect one of Hamels and Myers to pitch a great game, Jamie Moyer has been fantastic of late, and Joe Blanton is servicable. The Brewers have Sabathia and then literally no one. The fact that the Phillies beat the Brewers 5-1 in the season series (with a recent sweep) doesn't bode well for the people of Milwaukee. Phillies sweep.

Cubs vs. LA Dodgers
The best team in the league against the hottest. Top to bottom the Cubs are hands down the best team in the NL and the best placed to go to the World Series. That said playing the hot Dodgers in a 5 game series is no sure thing. If the Dodgers can grab one of two in Chicago all of a sudden they're in excellent shape. The Cubs have some questions. Zambrano has been out of sorts, Harden is a 6-inning pitcher, and Ryan Dempster has never done this before. A big hit here or there and catching a few breaks could have the Dodgers going to the NLCS. That said you have to like the Cubs. The Dodgers hot streak has come against mediocre teams and the Cubs have been the best team since day one. I think Billingsley gets the win against Zambrano but the Cubs take two in LA. Cubs in 4

AL

Tampa Bay vs. White Sox
The White Sox are the worst team in the postseason. They owe more to the failures of Cleveland and Detroit than they will ever know. Some big hits and clutch pitching has aided them over the past three days and they'll enter Tampa full of confidence. But aside from the Ramirez slam against the Tigers yesterday the offense without Carlos Quentin has been stagnant and the rotation of Vasquez, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd is far from frightening. In fact you'd take the Rays top three guys over any of them. The Rays are a better team offensively, defensively and on the pitching front. Add homefield advantage to that and nothing looks good for Chicago. Tampa Bay sweep

LA Angels vs. Boston
The marquee matchup of the first round. You could make a case that this is the World Series right here, the two most complete teams in baseball. They say that the 5 game format helps the weaker team, but here I think it favours Anaheim. They only have to face Josh Beckett once, and the Sox have less time to get Lowell and Drew healthy. I think the series might come down to the huge game one matchup of Lester and Lackey. A must-win for the Angels because I don't see the Angels winning at Fenway. I don't they'll have to though. Angels in 5

Power shift

The fourth consecutive bizarre week in the NFL. Upsets all round and the confusion in the AFC playoff picture has now been matched by the NFC. What do we make of losses to Dallas and Denver, and the mediocre performances of San Diego, Buffalo and Jacksonville? Are Washington the real deal? Plenty of questions, all of which are answered below.

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (4-0, LW: 1)
The class of the AFC. Four games in and they haven't really been tested yet. Hands down the best defense in the league, and the offense is capable enough to get by. 30+ points the last two weeks shows that they aren't a slouch on offense. The running game is still going smoothly, and Kerry Collins has been competent. It's a bit depressing to think how good they would be if Vince Young had lived up to his potential. This team can run away with the AFC South.

2. Buffalo Bills (4-0, LW: 2)
The second shaky performance in a row, but this tough is only going to help them later on in the year. They're coming up big under pressure and Trent Edwards is showing he can perform on fourth quarter drives. The defense is stellar and they did will to escape a potential danger game with a victory.

3. San Diego Chargers (2-2, LW: 3)
Not thrilled with this pick, considering the 15-0 halftime deficit in lowly Oakland, but looking at the competition I don't know who else belongs here. At the very least you can't question the team's spirit. In their two losses and the game against Oakland they came out after halftime, came from behind and played spirited football. The next test is playing four quarters of good football.

4. New England Patriots (2-1, LW: 6)
Almost every team in the AFC got worse this weekend, so doing nothing moves you up in my eyes. No matter how good a certain player is, even if he's Tom Brady, I don't believe all of a sudden you can go from 16-0 to a mediocre team. If the Patriots can incorporate Randy Moss into the offense they should be fine given the strength of their shockingly easy schedule.

5. Denver Broncos (3-1, LW: 4)
Could easily be, and probably should be, 1-3. The offense might be amazing but when the defense gives up that many yards a game it's a difficult flaw to cover up. They aren't really a contender but they should still make the playoffs. Why? After the bye week they have a stretch where they go Miami, @Cleveland, @Atlanta, Oakland, @Jets, Kansas City. They should go at least 5-1 in that stretch.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, LW: 5)
Dodged a bullet today. Huge win over the Ravens to gain control of the AFC North. The Ravens had that game but the Steelers came from nowhere. Pittsburgh is too banged up and too weak on the offensive line to be considered true contenders, but given the weak division they play in they'll be in the playoffs. The schedule the AFC North drew is horrible for them, so 9-7 will more likely than not win you the division.

On the outside looking in:

Jacksonville (2-2, LW: -)
I don't know how you can like any team that is two field goal kicks from being 0-4. The run game isn't the same as it was last year, and David Garrard (despite the strong performance yesterday) is looking shaky. Will probably be in a battle for the Wild Card.
Indianapolis (1-2, LW: -)
This AFC is so wide open it wouldn't shock me if Indy suddenly got its act together and came from nowhere to take the championship. But considering their porous run defense and the health concerns on offense, it's hard to like them right now. The schedule is brutal as well. Already 1-2, the Colts have to play Tennessee twice, New England, and away to Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Diego. Even games they have like away to Houston next week are no gimme.
Baltimore (2-1, LW: -)
Season might have ended today. Win that game against Pittsburgh and the Ravens are 3-0, 2 games clear of the Steelers and in control of the division. The defense looks good and the offense at the very least does a capable job of moving forward. Joe Flacco doesn't inspire that much confidence though, missing a wide open Ray Rice in the second quarter on that play was called back was shocking. The next two weeks (home to Tennessee, at Indy) will go a long way to establishing their season. A split their and the division is not out of the question.
NY Jets (2-2, LW: -)
Still don't buy it. I think the Arizona game was their abberation game, where simply everything went right on offense. The defense is swiss cheese (84 points conceded the past two weeks) and Favre is never going to play like that again.

NFC

1. NY Giants (3-0, LW: 3)
Has to be doesn't it? The Eagles and Cowboys failed to impress so until proven otherwise the Giants are the class of the NFC. The Plaxico situation raises a few concerns, but with Seattle, Cleveland and San Fran coming in the next few weeks they'll have a while to sort it out.

2. Dallas Cowboys (3-1, LW: 1)
Washington game raises some concerns. You still have to question their chemistry and intelligence on offense. The loss was no fluke, they were genuinely outplayed by the Redskins.

3. Carolina Panthers (3-1, LW: 4)
I like the look of this Panthers team. The Panthers are solid on D, and the offense looks great. The running back tandem is solid, Jake Delhomme looks good and Steve Smith is definitely back. My pick to win the South.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, LW: 2)
Don't put too much weight on the loss to Chicago. Away in a tough environment without their best player, and they were literally two inches from winning the match. How strange was Desean Jackson on Sunday, has a wide receiver ever had so much positive and negative impact on a game? Scores a touchdown and gets two huge runs, but a) fumbles a punt that is recovered by the bears, b) misjudges a punt which leads to the Eagles being pinned inside their own 5, and c) run a route wrong, which led to an interception. Amazing.

5. Chicago (2-2, LW: -)
Got to love the heart this team showed against the Eagles. That goal line stand could be the launching point of a playoff season. The defense is as good as any, the special teams probably the best in the league, but you have to worry about the offense. Lets not kid ourselves, Kyle Orton is dreadful. The amazing thing is that it may not matter. With that defense and Devon Hester the offense is going to getting the ball around midfield time and time again. With the Packers banged up and the Vikes shaky you have to like the Bears in the North.

6. Seattle Seahawks (1-2, LW: -)
I'm over my 49ers love. With Branch and Engram coming back the Hawks will be in decent shape for the rest of the season. Despite the poor start to the year Seattle is still tied for the division lead in the loss column. 7-9 will win this division, I kid you not.

On the outside looking in:

Washington (3-1, LW: -)
Not buying it. As good as they were against Dallas I think that was just a case of everything going right for the Skins, and catching Dallas on a bad day. The fact that they've outscored their opponents by just 5 points on the season means something.
Green Bay (2-2, LW: 4)
Past two weeks raise some concern. The loss of key players on defense hurts and with Ryan Grant and now Rodgers banged up things don't look good. The season may hinge on Ryan Grant's ability to match last year's form.
New Orleans (2-2, LW: -)
Drew Brees is carrying this team more than any other individual is carrying a team in the NFL. Not sure where I stand on the Saints. Defense is terrible and receiving corps banged up, but they're one big Redskins play and the boot of Martin Gramatica away from being 4-0. Keep an eye on them.
Tampa Bay (3-1, LW: -)
I don't know about them. Solid team that seemingly gets it done. Virtually no shot at that Super Bowl, but they might get into the playoffs. Unlike last year I don't think 9-7 wins the South, Carolina is too good.
San Francisco (2-2, LW: 6)
Scoring one touchdown against the terrible New Orleans defense is a concern.

Super Bowl pick: After the Dallas loss I think now it has to be Tennessee. The defense is phenomenal, the offense gets it done and most importantly the team seems locked in and focused. That's a pretty good mix.

The obligatory awards

2008 AFL MVP
Gary Ablett, Geelong

Changed the way the game is played. Ablett forced coaches into conceding defeat and focusing on limiting Ablett's dominance instead of stopping it. It became simply a matter of how much Ablett was going to dominate matches, not whether or not it was going to happen. 29 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, a goal and a goal assist is usually going get you three votes. They werre Ablett's averages for the season. His 39 disposal, 2 goal, 3 goal assist, 5 tackles and 12 inside 50 turn against North Melbourne in Round 11 was the best individual performance of the year by far. Only enhanced his reputation in finals, best for his team in the Grand Final. The best player in the league right now, and I don't think that can be debated.
Runners-up (in order): Lance Franklin, Brent Harvey, Simon Black, Nick Riewoldt, Chris Judd, Adam Cooney, James Bartel, Matthew Richardson, Adam Goodes.

LVP (Least Valuable Player)
Chad Fletcher, West Coast

Soon to be renamed the Chad Fletcher award for ineptitude. When choosing the least valuable player in the league you don't look for simply bad players. Someone like Sam Iles (yeah, who?) might not be very good at football, but he doesn't hurt the team. I'm looking at players that when you see lining up for the opposition you smile. Chad Fletcher is one of these such players. More often than not Fletcher makes a) bad decisions with the ball, and b) disposes of it poorly. The beauty of Fletcher is that he finds the ball with ease, and racks up disposals at a rate that places him among the league leaders on a yearly basis. So basically the player who is arguably worst at disposing of the ball is getting the opportunity to do so on a frequent rate. Maybe West Coast should simply dispose of him.
Runners-up: Warren Tredrea, Nathan Thompson, Tom Hawkins

Rising star
Rhys Palmer, Fremantle

The most exciting young talent in the league. This guy is great to watch. His endurance and hard running is unreal. He reads the play, finds the ball, has no shortage of courage, and his marking ability is insane. Just needs to improve his disposal, especially on his opposite. If he gets that stuff together he'll be the complete package.
Runners-up: Cyril Rioli, Trent Cotchin, Garrick Ibbotson

Top 10 matches of the season

10. Round 11 Carlton 75 def. Port Adelaide 63 (AAMI Stadium)
Just one of Carlton's extraordinary come from behind victories, and one of Port Adelaide's stunning chokes. Down by 38 points late in the third term Carlton came home with a seven goal to none final term. Matthew Kreuzer was the star with three last quarter goals, and the Blues hit the front for the first time all day 32 minutes into the last quarter.

9. Round 16 St. Kilda 119 def. Hawthorn 89 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of common beliefs about the season only one match changed perception of the season more than this one. Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo (plus some Blake magic) swung the game in St. Kilda's favour in the second half. 12 goals to 3 in the second half rallied the Saints from 34 points down, and went a long way to establishing St. Kilda's top four hopes.

8. Round 12 Hawthorn 76 def. Adelaide 72 (AAMI Stadium)
Just a fantastic contest all night long. On a Saturday night in Adelaide we got one of the best, and most intense battles of the season. With Nathan Bock controlling Lance Franklin the Crows stayed in the match all night long. Luke Hodge's calmly composed goal to win the match deep into the fourth quarter was probably the goal of the year.

7. Round 2 Adelaide 85 def. Port Adelaide 79 (AAMI Stadium)
It's great watching a physical struggle between two teams that genuinely hate each other. The most physical and violent game of the year, and one of the best showdowns ever. Down to 18 fit men the Crows held off the Power dropping their foes to 0-3 on the season.

6. Round 1 Western Bulldogs 126 def. Adelaide 123 (Telstra Dome)
Incredible match, felt more like a fairytale than a game of football. In Brad Johnson's 300th match he kicked the final two goals to seemingly win the match. He wouldn't have the last word though, Nathan Bock had an opportunity to win the match after the siren but missed.

5. Round 11 Geelong 127 def. Kangaroos 114 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of match quality this was probably the best match of the season. The Kangaroos tested the Cats all night long in a free flowing attacking game. Gary Ablett and his Cats would have the last laugh though recording a well earned win at the Dome.

4. Round 1 Richmond 109 def. Carlton 79 (MCG)
The first match of the season was one of the best. The atmosphere at the 'G between two huge rivals was fantastic. And Chris Judd's debut was the most awaited event in the offseason, and he didn't disappoint. Matthew Richardson and Richmond prevailed though.

3. Round 17 Geelong 88 def. Hawthorn 77 (MCG)
The much hyped match was the one everyone was looking forward to all season. It didn't disappoint. The game was close all day and was a great prelude to the eventual Grand Final. Only an unusually erratic Luke Hodge prevented Hawthorn from victory.

2. Round 9 Collingwood 134 def. Geelong 48 (MCG)
Probably the most amazing result of the past ten years. If you'd told me Collingwood would beat Geelong I would have been surprised. But by 86 points? Do we even have a result to compare to this? It was an extraordinary couple of hours, it felt more like a dream than a match of football. Collingwood's tackling and pressure was the best football has ever seen in the best performance by a single team all season.

1. Round 22 Hawthorn 159 def. Carlton 81 (Telstra Dome)
More so an event than a game of football. The chase for 100 goals was probably the most fun event of the football season. It was fantastic to see the fans maul the ground. But things got really exciting in the second half when Fevola started getting close and the Blues were looking for him every single time. It was a refreshing experience, and a great game to watch.

Season 2008

The day after the Grand Final seems as good a day as any to review the 2008 AFL season. First though, a note on yesterday's post. I think I may have been a little harsh in criticising the quality of yesterday's Grand Final. It might not have been a classic for the ages, but it was still a pretty good Grand Final - one of the better ones, at the very least. For me the Hawthorn-Geelong clash ranks above the 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007 Grand Finals, below the 2002, 2005 and 2006 matches, and on level terms with the 2001 Brisbane-Essendon clash (a similar match in fact). Anyway, here are my feelings on the 2008 season...

1. Hawthorn (20-5)
2008: Obviously a magnificent season for the Premiers. Perhaps the mark of a great team is not only its ability to win matches, but to genuinely affect the way the game is played. With their zone defense, which suffocated opponents into submission, the Hawks did just that. Their revolutionary zone was able to mask a few defensive deficiencies, the midfield led by skipper Sam Mitchell, consistent and underrated Brad Sewell, hard-nuts Jordan Lewis and Chance Bateman, and the still useful Shane Crawford was terrific all year. The forward line was the story though, with the mercurial Lance Franklin dominant all season, and well backed by the capable Jarryd Roughead and Mark Williams. Lost a few matches that they shouldn't have (Richmond, Kangaroos, St. Kilda) but come finals that didn't matter. The Hawks made the Dogs and Saints look very bad, and then did the same to the Cats. A brilliant season. Grade: A
Greatest strength: Zone defense. The biggest tactical story of the year. The way the Hawks employed this all season made it virtually impossible to advance the ball forward out of your backline. The way the Hawks suffocated the Bulldogs in the qualifying final with the zone was extraordinary.
Area that needs to be addressed: The Ruck. Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf is probably the weakest premiership ruck tandem for... ever?
MVP: Lance Franklin. I was tempted to go with the inspirational Luke Hodge, but Buddy is the Hawks most important player. His ability to win matches off his own boot is second to none. Showed something in the Grand Final too, despite being beaten on the day he still was able to produce two crucial goals. They say the mark of a great player is being able to get it done even when you're not at your best. That's exactly what Buddy did yesterday. The most exciting player in the league.
Outlook: Is there any reason to believe the Hawks won't be even better next year? That's the scary thing, this team is so young. The potential loss of Crawford won't hurt too much, the Hawks have the depth to cover the veteran. The most frightening prospect for opposition teams is that Lance Franklin is only going to get better. Assuming they aren't decimated by injuries this team is a virtual lock for top 2 next year.

2. Geelong (23-2)
2008: Dominated all year but came up short when it mattered. The degree to which Geelong choked away the 2008 premiership can not be understated. With Hawthorn on the ropes midway through the final term the game was theirs for the taking. Instead Hawthorn reeled off three of four goals in a row. A great team would never let that happen. The Cats were again dominant in the home and away season, destroying opponents on a weekly basis. They did slip a few times though, the loss to Collingwood and close escapes against Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos. Rarely were they matched though. The defensive unit was rock solid, the forward line creative and the midfield the best in the league. The Bartel-Ablett-Corey-Selwood quartet was brilliant. It's hard to beat a team when they have 4 of the 15 players in the league all playing in the same part of the ground. It was all for nothing though, as the Cats came up short in September. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Joel Selwood would be the best midfielder at nine different clubs. At Geelong he's the fourth best. That says it all.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line. Cam Mooney choking in the Grand Final just highlighted how shallow the Cats forward line is. With Steve Johnson beginning to play further up the ground, the Cats rely too much on Cam Mooney. Tom Lonergan is an average player at best, so Cam Mooney is the only reliable tall target in the forward line. The midfield makes the forward line look a lot better. Much like Quentin Lynch never would have kicked 60 goals in a season without Judd, Cousins and Kerr, it's hard to see Matty Stokes and Lonergan kicking 38 and 36 goals respectively at any other club. If this club wants to take the next step into the truly elite it needs another key forward.
MVP: Cam Mooney and Matthew Scarlett might be more important structuarly, but Gary Ablett is still what makes this team tick. Incredibly Ablett improved on his amazing 2007 season. An extraordinary talent, Ablett's core strength and low centre of gravity make him virtually impossible to tackle. His performance in a losing Grand Final only enhanced his reputation as the #1 player in the league.
Outlook: No reason to think the Cats won't be back next year on the final Saturday of September. Ablett (25 next year), Bartel (25), Corey (27), Chapman (27), Ling (28), Johnson (26), Rooke (27) and Enright (28) will all still be in their primes next year. Joel Selwood will be 21 next year. Guys like Harley (31), Ottens (29), Scarlett (30), Mooney (30) and Milburn (32) are all getting on but should be able to contribute next year. Beyond that though things are less certain.

3. Western Bulldogs (16-1-8)
2008: A mixed season for the Dogs. One loss through 15 rounds was extraordinary. The Dogs were playing a free-flowing wonderfully attacking style of game. They were impossible to slow down. The Round 16 thumping at the hands of Geelong was a reality check though, and that sent the Dogs in a spiral where they finished the season with just three wins from their final ten matches. In the finals their fortunes were mixed. The Hawks embarassed them but they bounced back strong and took care of Sydney. They then pushed Geelong almost to the brink, but choked away the match with countless missed shots in the third term. On the whole you have to consider the season a success, but it's a hollow statement given where they were at Round 15 as opposed to where they finished. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Run. When this team runs and carries going forward into attack they look as good as any team in the league. Their ability to win matches largely depends on the ability to create run and dash. Quality teams like Hawthorn and Geelong don't allow for it.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line is still a problem. The Dogs don't have a single tall forward that can be relied on to deliver week in week out. Scott Welsh (43 goals) and Mitch Hahn (34 goals) are OK stop-gap solutions, but come September neither delivered. With Johnson, Akermanis, Murphy and Giansiracusa the Dogs have a surplus of small forwards, but unlike the Eagles of 05-06 and the Cats of present day the midfield isn't good enough to cover the flaws of the forward 50.
MVP: Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney. I'm not sure his credentials are Brownlow worthy, but Cooney is definitely the best and most important player on this team. He adds class, dash and opportunism to the Bulldog midfield.
Outlook: If the way the season ended is any indication this Bulldog team has a while to go yet. They aren't going to win a flag with this list, they still need a key forward and another gun midfielder. Unless they get those things they're going to be a perennial 3-6 team.

4. St. Kilda (14-11)
2008: A strange season for the Saints. The fact that they only won three more matches than they lost is kind of telling. St. Kilda were once again heavy on talent, but low on heart. Not even Robert Harvey's retirement could propel them to greater emotional heights. The Saints lucked their way into fourth position, with an easy draw and a number of things falling their way. They won the matches they should have, and lost all the ones they shouldn't have. Against the big three of Geelong, Hawthorn and the Dogs they finished a combined 1-5. Add in Collingwood and Sydney, the other teams in the top six and the Saints still have a terrible 3-8 mark. The inability to beat quality sides obviously hurt St. Kilda in September. They played the two elite teams in September and were thoroughly smashed in each match-up. They eked out a win against a Collingwood team which would have lost to Melbourne on that night. The shining light of the season was their shock win over Hawthorn in Round 16. For one half of football everything the Saints have promised for half a decade now, they delivered. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Talent. The Saints win matches because of their unreal list of individual talents. Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hayes, Dal Santo, Ball, Montagna, Fisher, Goddard, Maguire, Gram, the Clarke brothers. The sheer number of talented players on this team is astounding. Unfortunately the Saints play exactly like individuals, there's no cohesion or direction in the team. That's why they're on the outside looking in yet again.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed in the midfield. Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball are all quality players but none of them are going to win a 100m sprint. The Saints simply get run off their feet by too many teams.
MVP: Nick Riewoldt. Is any player more important to his team than Riewoldt is to the Saints? Without Riewoldt St. Kilda are probably a borderline bottom four team believe it or not. Saint Nick elevated the Saints to a higher level of play in the second half of the season almost singehandedly. His level of performance is largely indicative of his team's result. So not surprisingly Riewoldt played one brilliant final and two shockers, and the Saints won one final convincingly, and were thumped in the other two.
Outlook: It's hard to know what to expect from these Saints. They always promise so much yet fail to deliver. They tease their fans with the odd brilliant performance, only to come thudding back down to Earth soon after. Backing up the tremendous win over Hawthorn with a loss to lowly West Coast was not only indicative of the 2008 season, but of the club in general. The team is still relatively young. The core of Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Fisher, Gram, Goddard, Montagna and Ball is still under 27. But the problem with this team has never been talent, it's been heart. There are no signs this team is about to turn it around, so it's hard to see them getting any closer to a Grand Final than they were this year.

5. Sydney (13-1-10)
2008: You have to think that this was the last year of relevance for the Swans for maybe a while. Considering that the Swans finished the season on a 4-7 run doesn't inspire much confidence. What is more disturbing though is this - in the 2008 home and away season the Swans beat one finals team. That's quite extraordinary. In the regular season Sydney finished 1-9 against teams that finished in the top eight. And the lone win came against at home in poor conditions against a struggling St. Kilda side. Sydney have reached the stage where they can still take care of weak sides, but are unable to raise their game against the big dogs of the league. The Swans played in five matches this year that were decided by two kicks or less and won four of them. This team had no business playing a home final let alone making the finals. The team is old, worn out and in dire need of some youth. They played a terrific final against the lowly Kangaroos, but were completely handled the following week by the Bulldogs. The season is difficult to judge, as they did a) make the finals, and b) won a final. The team simply wasn't very good, but they played well enough when they had to. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Tackling. The Swans list isn't that talented these days, but talent isn't something you require for tackling. Led by inspirational hard nut Brett Kirk, the Swans led the lead in tackling, as they are accustomed to doing these days. They might not win as often as they used to, but the Swans make sure you earn victory physically.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed and youth. These things often come hand in hand. The conditions in the first final against the Roos masked Sydney's lack of speed, but they were exposed by the Dogs on the fresh MCG grass. Sydney simply can't keep up with teams.
MVP: Jarrad McVeigh was Sydney's best player this year, and may be for the next few years, but Adam Goodes is still far and away the most valuable. McVeigh is pushing for it, but Goodes is still the only special player on the Sydney team. He elevates them.
Outlook: Not good. The team is too old, and at best might be semi-relevant for one more year. Kieran Jack and Jarryd Moore are great young talents but beyond them the youth is thin. Maybe next year the Swans have a half chance at competing for the eight, but after that fans should prepare for a prolonged run in the cellars of the competition.

6. Collingwood (13-11)
2008: A strange season for the Pies. It's hard to know whether they overachieved or underachieved. I think they fall somewhere in between. They simply achieved. As has been the case for three years now, Collingwood shot themselves in the foot by failing to take care of lesser teams. Losses to Fremantle, Carlton (twice) and Essendon really killed the season. The 12-10 record didn't really represent where Collingwood stood in the competition. Collingwood didn't play in that many close matches, but the two matches they played in that went down to the wire (2 point loss to Brisbane, the Didak miss against the Kangaroos) they lost. Often a season is made by winning the matches that could go either way, this year Collingwood lost them and found themselves trying to win the flag from 8th spot. The stat that stands out about Collingwood's season though is this - against teams ranked in the top 7 Collingwood finished 6-3, against teams ranked 8th and below they finished 6-7. In finals the Pies were a mixed bag. They played a pretty good match against Adelaide, before playing their worst match of the season against St. Kilda the following week. The losses of Buckley, Licuria and Clement from last season, and the absences of Rocca, Rusling and then later on Didak and Shaw hurt Collingwood a lot. Considering injuries and the Didak fiasco, Collingwood did pretty well to win a final. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Game-changing players. An odd strength to have, but the Pies team is almost built upon the ability of Dale Thomas, Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak to change matches. These four guys are what make Collingwood special. They're skillful, clever and creative. Hopefully all four are back next year.
Area that needs to be addressed: THE RUCK. I'm almost resigned to the fact that Collingwood will never ever have a half decent ruckman. The stats speak for themselves. Since 1999 Collingwood's averages in hitouts per game amongst the league have ranked like this - 14th, 16th, 16th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 16th, 15th, 12th, 13th. It's as astounding as it is depressing. Compare that to this, since 2001 the premiership team has ranked - 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and this year 9th. The stats don't lie, unless you have Buddy Franklin you need a good ruckman to win the premiership. Josh Fraser, Chris Bryan and Cameron Wood don't inspire much confidence.
MVP: Travis Cloke might be more important, but this year Paul Medhurst was the most valuable. Statistically Medhurst was brilliant, 16 disposals 8 marks and 2 goals a game doesn't grow on trees. It went beyond the statistics. It was around the Essendon game (the one we lost) where Medhurst officially made the leap. As a fan you just got the sense that everytime he got the ball he was going to do something special with it. After 11 years of watching Collingwood play the only other player I developed this sense with was Buckley. And that's the greatest compliment I can give any Collingwood player.
Outlook: Clouded. It's difficult to get a handle on this team. I can rationalise them finishing next year anywhere between 3rd and 13th. The case to be made for them states that O'Brien, Brown, Goldsack and Maxwell all get better, and the return of Heath Shaw with something to prove shores up the defense. Rocca, Rusling and Reid all return to give us a forward line of Cloke, Rocca and the choice of Reid/Rusling/Dawes to go alongside Paul Medhurst and John Anthony. The case against says that Medhurst and Davis come back down to Earth, Anthony Rocca's corpse doesn't do anything, Travis will never deliver, the Pies lack a gun midfielder and competent ruckman, and we still don't have anyone to stop the Franklins, Fevolas and Riewoldts of the world. The question hinges on Ben Cousins. If we get him, I like us as a top four team. If we don't we're destined to spend the fourth year running as a bottom half of the eight side.

7. Adelaide (13-10)
2008: Same old, same old really. Finished inexplicably high on the ladder after 22 rounds but failed to deliver in finals. My theory is this - Adelaide is a well-oiled machine that overachieves every home and away season because of their coach. They win because of tactics, structure and strategy. When it comes to finals though, you need a depth of talent and a lot of heart. Adelaide don't have that. The telling stat is this - in Neil Craig's tenure Adelaide have come from behind at three quarter time to win a match once. That's incredible. The Crows just don't look like a tough team. They got as close as 8 or 9 points in the last quarter of the final against Collingwood but I was never really that worried. Science and structure are no substitute for a killer instinct. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Strategy and discipline. The Crows don't take nights off. They always come to play, and if their is a realistic shot of winning they'll do it or come pretty close to it. The Crows win matches that they should, they finished 10-3 against the bottom eight this year.
Greatest weakness: Talent. Being well-oiled and ready to play every night can only get you so far. You need a depth of talent all over the field. You look at Adelaide's list and it's no wonder they haven't won a final in three years. The Crows have four genuinely quality players - Scott Thompson, Brett Burton, Jason Porplyzia and Andrew McLeod. Porplyzia couldn't stay healthy and Burton is a perennial injury concern. McLeod is 32 years old. Scott Thompson made a leap of sorts this year, but he can still be too easily shut out of matches and doesn't perform in big games.
MVP: I actually think it's Andrew McLeod. He's the heart and soul of the team, he provides drive and class of the half back line. Until Scott Thompson steps up the MVP is McLeod's.
Outlook: It's too hard to tell with these Crows. If Burton and Porplyzia are healthy for next year, and the draw favours them they'll have a crack at the eight again. If not, then they're in trouble.

8. Kangaroos (12-1-10)
2008: Wow, what happened? Entering round 21 the Kangaroos were believed to be the second best team in the competition. After they lost, but didn't disgrace themselves, against Geelong they were still believed to be as good a contender as anyone. All they had to do was take care of lowly Port Adelaide in Melbourne and they had fourth spot. Incredibly they lost, and they didn't just lose - they were smashed. All of a sudden they found themselves in 7th spot, confidence shattered into a million pieces and a trip to Sydney and poor conditions ahead. They played a terrible final and were one and done. So much can change in three weeks. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Discipline and focus. Like Adelaide the Kangaroos play hard every week. They tackle hard and do all the small things. Rarely do they lose matches they should win (unless fourth spot and the double chance is on the line).
Greatest weakness: Midfield depth. There isn't much on offer after Brent Harvey. Adam Simpson will be 33 next year, Brady Rawlings is a negator, Daniel Wells might be trade bait and Jess Sinclair is nothing but a poor man's Nick Dal Santo.
MVP: Does it even need to be said? Brent Harvey is the reason the Kangaroos are even relevant. He's a mercurial talent, as well as the guy that makes this team tick.
Outlook: People write off the Kangaroos every year. Already they're something like 14th favourite to win the flag next year. Shannon Grant is done, and Adam Simpson, Jess Sinclair, Corey Jones and even Brent Harvey won't be far behind. The team is surprisingly young though, although the youth doesn't exactly wow anyone. If Hale and Petrie can perform like they did this year in 2009 then the Roos are a chance, but as of now I don't have them in the finals.

9. Richmond (11-1-10)
2008: I think the Ninthmond Tigers has a better ring to it. Luckily this year the heartbreak wasn't so painful for the Tiger supporters - they were never really in it. The team took massive strides this year, and for a unit that was a consensus bottom two pick, they showed up everyone. They showed the future by finishing the season an astounding 8-3. In spite of all this I feel like the positive win-loss record is a bit misleading. I still can't really see how this team did so well. When you look closer the team really wasn't that good. On that 8-3 run seven of the teams they beat were bottom eight sides. Against top eight teams the Tigers were 1-1-9, they still have a while to go. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Swagger. You have to like the way this team plays. In close matches they genuinely know what they're doing. The wins over Carlton in the first match of the season, Essendon, Brisbane and Port Adelaide at AAMI were inspirational.
Area that needs to be addressed: The forward line is going to be a problem very soon. By next season Matthew Richardson will be 34. Jack Riewoldt is too thin, and no one else really stands out as a forward line option.
MVP: Call me the devil but what the hell - Joel Bowden. The case for Matthew Richardson is obvious, but the older Bowden's case is just as strong. For someone that was dropped early in the year Joel Bowden had a remarkable season. The 30 year old defender won three matches in the dying seconds. The courageous mark back with the flight to earn victory against Port Adelaide, the composed killing of the clock against Essendon, and the super clutch goal against Brisbane to keep the season alive. Richardson may have been better, but you can't say Bowden wasn't valuable.
Outlook: Obviously bright. The youth is fantastic. Deledio and Foley are stars and Cotchin (if he isn't already) will be there soon. This still isn't a finals side though. Richardson is in for a regression and Nathan Brown isn't getting any younger. I'm guessing a slight decline in wins next year and finals the year after.

10. Brisbane (10-12)
2008: What a collapse. After being touted as a top four team the Lions finished the year 3-8 and somehow fell behind Richmond. The Lions lost three matches (Melbourne, Kangaroos, Carlton) where they were in a position where they seemingly couldn't lose. Simply put they choked. This Lions team is possibly the biggest anomaly in the AFL. Are they a good team? Last year there was about a five week patch towards the end of the season where they were playing better football than any team in the league. This year they started the season at 7-3 and were well on their way. Once again it all turned to crap. The forward line is completely reliant on Brown and Bradshaw, there's no halfway competent third option. The midfield is good, but the defense is suspect. Daniel Merrett doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence as a number one key defender. The Lions played some great footy this year but too often didn't show up, and when push came to shove they were left wincing in the corner. Grade: C
Greatest strength: The midfield. The obvious option is the Bradshaw/Brown tandem, but I question Bradshaw's quality and the midfield really is fantastic. Old hands Simon Black, Luke Power and rejuvenated Travis Johnstone along with young guns Michael Rischitelli and Brad Dalziell make this unit formiddible at the feet of Jamie Charman.
Greatest weakness: Performance in the clutch. The team simply doesn't know what to do in clutch situations. They don't manage the clock or control tempo. That's why they didn't play finals for the fourth year running.
MVP: J. Brown is the obvious answer, but the Brownlow medal runner-up deserves some love. I don't think people really appreciate exactly how good Simon Black is. There's a reason he finished runner up this year and won the medal a few years back. The way he gets himself to every stoppage and wins the ball at the clinches is amazing. My defining memory of Black is from last year in a classic match against Sydney. With the season on the line and down by a goal with about 30 seconds to go the Swans were suffocating the stoppages. Black was able to win the ball cleanly, run along the boundary line and deliver a desperate handball to Luke Power as his legs fell from beneath him. Power delivered to Jonathan Brown who slotted the goal to keep the season alive. That passage was so indicative of Simon Black. The hard worker and matchwinner whose work so often goes unnoticed. Not by the umpires though, and definitely not by me.
Outlook: Pretty good I think. Black and Power are 29 and 28 respectively so they'll have 2-3 years left of quality football and probably more. Newly re-signed skipper Jonathan Brown is just 26, and the youth looks very good. Taking over from Leigh Matthews is no easy gig, but I think a breath of fresh air might be good for this team. I fully expect them to play finals next year.

11. Carlton (10-12)
2008: A rollercoaster year for the Blues and a return to relevance. This team scares me. They piss me off just as much. I hate the fact that they've tanked their way into Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer, and now seem set for years. After losing their first three matches the Blues finished the season 10-9 and look in great shape for the future. The midfield is frightening. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Carrazo, Scotland? C'mon. Seems like Judd left Kerr and Cousins for two guys that are going to be as good as them. All season the Blues played with a genuine swagger and belief. They believed they were good enough to win matches and they ended up doing just that. The come from behind wins interstate over Port Adelaide and Brisbane were unreal. Unlike Richmond, Carlton actually managed to compete against some half-decent teams. The Blues finished just 3-5 against teams in the top six, and were very unlucky not to snatch a win over Sydney. The year was a huge success for Carlton, and success is something this team is only going to see more of. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Judd and Murphy are superstars, Bryce Gibbs will be, Nick Stevens is an established gun, and Heath Scotland and Carrazo are very solid. It's a scary unit.
Area that needs to be addressed: Aside from getting a Robin to Fevola's Batman, the Blues need a ruckman. They ranked 16th in hitouts this season and need some stop-gap to put the ball to Judd, Murphy and co's advantage while Kreuzer develops.
MVP: Chris Judd. He provides leadership, hardness and intelligence to the football club. Fully expect him to regain his title as best player in the league once healthy.
Outlook: Very bright. If the Blues can get say Jeff White and someone else steps up in the forward line there is no reason they can't be playing finals next year. In 2010 and beyond though, that's where they'll be really dangerous.

12. Essendon (8-14)
2008: They showed the future in 2008 but more often than not at the cost of the present. They play an exciting free-flowing brand of footy, but it lacks accountability and pressure. Hopefully that will improve in time. The list is young and explosive. Reimers, Jetta, Davey and Houli are all exciting talents. Watson, Stanton, Monfries and Welsh will hold down spots for years. This year was largely a development year though. The Dons simply weren't good enough to play well enough over 22 rounds to be relevant. The fact that 12 of their 14 losses came amidst losing streaks is indicative of the inexperienced list. The season was not lost though, the Dons still showed that they have a bright future. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Exciting young talent. Similar to Collingwood, Essendon have a number of players that can simply break games open. Houli, Jetta, Reimers and Davey (assuming he's the same when he returns) can all turn matches with their unreal talents.
Area that needs to be addressed: Accountability. The Dons didn't man up all year and it hurt them. No team conceded more goals. This one's on Matthew Knights.
MVP: Matthew Lloyd. This year he was the barometer. 62 goals this season was a remarkable effort from the skipper. Lloyd kicked 33 goals in 8 Bomber wins. He kicked 29 in 14 losses. When Lloyd fired so did Essendon.
Outlook: Mixed. Next year is no sure thing. Lloyd and Lucas will be 31 and Fletcher will be 34. We've seen the best of them. That said the youth will step up again, and McVeigh and Hille will still be in their prime. 10 wins is the next step.

13. Port Adelaide (7-15)
2008: Were much better than their record indicated. Like Brisbane and Fremantle last year's runners-up simply couldn't get over the line in close games. In games decided by 20 points or less the Power were 1-8. Contrast that to last year when the Power were 8-2 in those games. The team was largely unchanged from the Grand Final side of last year. Port simply weren't a very good team last year. Everything fell their way. They won matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide late in the season that they simply shouldn't have. In finals they snuck over the line against an injury-decimated West Coast and a mediocre Kangaroos side. This year's results were more indicative of the quality of the side than last year's. That said Port Adelaide are much better than a 7 win team. They should have won 10-11 matches this year. The youth in the team is exciting, and they still have a number of gun players. Last year everything went right, this year everything went wrong. They've been at both extremes, but that's football. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. The Power ranked #1 in hitouts this year. Port have always been blessed with elite ruckman, with Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan the Power have incredibly ranked in the top half of the league in hitouts ever since their inception.
Area that needs to be addressed: Key position players. Port lack a key defender or key forward. The forward line is held down by the smaller Brett Ebert and Daniel Motlop. These guys are terrific players but shouldn't be the focal point of any forward line. Tredrea's corpse needs to be laid to rest, and the Westhoffs are too thin. In defense Toby Thurstans doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Chad Cornes might need to be established at one end next year.
MVP: Hard to call. Chad Cornes is the most important, his brother is the most consistent, but its Shaun Burgoyne that elevates them to another level. Burgoyne doesn't get his fair due, he's one of the elite players in the league. A dominant force at the clearances, Burgoyne's performance against Collingwood in Round 20 (33 disposals 18 clearances) was astounding.
Outlook: I fully expect Port Adelaide to be back in finals next year. There's too much talent in this team. A full season of Chad Cornes and Shaun Burgoyne and the continued development of young players, combined with improved results in close games will be enough for a finals spot.

14. Fremantle (6-16)
2008: One of the most bizarre seasons you'll ever see. How a team can have a percentage of 94 and lose 16 games is beyond me. The Dockers simply failed in every possible close situation. Losing five games in a row when leading at three quarter time is astounding. In reality Freo were probably as good or better than the higher placed Carlton/Richmond/Essendon trio. It's harsh to pin it on one man, but if Matthew Pavlich could kick straight Fremantle definitely would have had two more wins, and possibly four. The youth was promising on the year though, Rhys Palmer is a gun and Garrick Ibbotson will be a 200 game player. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. Aaron Sandilands gives his team an advantage that no other team has.
Area that needs to be addressed: Taking advantage of the ruck. Freo has this advantage that other teams (hmmmm Collingwood?) would kill for. Sandilands is winning the ruck every week yet Fremantle were unable to capitalise on it. They need a better stoppage structure and more intelligence from the midfielders.
MVP: Matthew Pavlich. No brainer. The Captain failed in clutch situations this year, but excelled in every other situation. Still the barometer of the club and one of the ten best players in the league.
Outlook: A healthy Paul Haselby, the continued improvement of the youngsters and Fremantle can push for finals next year. I think the team is too young though, and the mental fragility won't just go away. They'll come close next year but they'll spend a third consecutive September on the outisde looking in.

15. West Coast (4-18)
2008: How far the mighty have fallen. I don't think a dynasty has ever ended so quickly. And so violently. The Eagles simply imploded without superstars Chris Judd and Ben Cousins. The team lacked leadership, direction and health all season long. They weren't quite as bad as their record reflected, injuries hurt them more than any other team, but they were still horrible. Veterans looked terrible and the youth showed their inexperience. They played a handful of decent matches, but too often they simply didn't show up for matches. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the loss at home to Geelong was the single worst performance I have seen from and team in any code of sport. Grade: E
Greatest strength: Ummm? I guess it's the ruck. Dean Cox is still the pre-eminent ruckman in the league and he makes the Eagles competitive in stoppages at the very least.
Area that needs to be addressed: Leadership. The void left by Judd and Cousins can not be understated. Usually steady hands Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein had years to forget, and leader Adam Hunter couldn't get on the field.
MVP: Clearly Dean Cox. In a year when the Eagles looked like rubbish Cox only enhanced his reptuation as one of the best players, and best blokes in the competition.
Outlook: The youth is solid and the veterans (Embley, Stenglein, Glass, Hunter, Wirrpanda) should bounce back. The middle-band of players in their prime is still pretty good. Cox, Kerr, Priddis, Selwood, Rosa, Waters, Lynch, Hansen and LeCras is a pretty good group of players. It'd be extraordinary if they bounced back to play finals next year, but with some health and focus it's not out of the question. Still though, smart money is on a bottom four finish.

16. Melbourne (3-19)
2008: One of the most inept seasons of all time. You don't wind up with a percentage of 62 easily. You have to earn that. And the Demons did. It was one of the worst ever teams you'll ever see. The veterans went down early, the youth didn't impress a lot and the team played sloppy football all season. I don't think there's anything positive to take out of the season. Grade: E-
Greatest strength: ...
Area that needs to be addressed: Getting good players. Seriously, if you were building a finals team from the ground up who would you take from the Melbourne team? Cameron Bruce and Brock McLean probably. Nathan Jones might have a shot at the bench.
MVP: Cameron Bruce I guess. The classy midfielder quietly pieced together one of his finest seasons.
Outlook: They'll be competitive... in 2013.