Monday, March 31, 2008
Power Rankings (round 2)
- The Cats weren't 100% convincing in their finishing of Port Adelaide last week, but they quelled any doubts with the thumping of Essendon yesterday. These Cats are far and away the best team in the competition, making the 01-04 Lions and 05-06 Eagles look like the 08 Demons.
2. Hawthorn (1st 2-0)
-Two games, two very convincing victories. The Melbourne win was impressive because of the significant names missing from action, the Fremantle win established Hawthorn as legitimate contenders. The Dockers played pretty good footy but the Hawks forward line depth and midfield attack was awesome. The Hawks have the best forward line in the league, and when Mitchell, Hodge, Crawford, Ladson and Osbourne line up the midfield won't be far behind.
3. St. Kilda (4th 2-0)
- Both of St. Kilda's victories have been unconvincing, but the 1st quarter against the Swans and 2nd and 3rd terms against Carlton showed glimpses of a premiership contender. The midfield trio of Hayes, Dal Santo and Montagna have made a great start to the season, and the defence can be labeled the best in the league. Big next two weeks (Bulldogs, Geelong).
4. Western Bulldogs (3rd 2-0)
- The 'other' unbeaten team, the Dogs would be the most confident team in the team right now. They run as well as any other team, but I'll be interested to see how they go against the better defensive teams in the league. The next three games are against St. Kilda, Essendon and Richmond. A win against St. Kilda this Friday night could easily set-up a 5-0 dream start to the season.
5. Adelaide (6th 1-1)
- One kick away from 3rd spot and a perfect start to the season. Instead they're sixth, but they're still looking good. The Crows have followed up a fantastic pre-season with a respectable loss to the Dogs and a super impressive win against nemesis West Coast. They seemed to have made the transition from lockdown defensive unit to fast-paced attacking team flawlessly. Jason Porplyzia and Simon Goodwin are playing terrific footy and the latter is leading by example. Next week's showdown with Port will be a telling game for both teams.
6. Collingwood (7th 1-1)
- The Pies looked OK against Brisbane, but they didn't look like the team that finished within a kick of the grand final last year. If not for a few Alan Didak brain-fades the Pies might be 2-0. The upcoming schedule for Collingwood features four games that they 'should' win against Richmond, Carlton, North Melbourne and Essendon. This early in the season I'd be expecting 3-1 from the Woods against those four, but 4-0 should be the goal.
7. Sydney (5th 1-1)
-Against St. Kilda the Swans were sloppy and looked slow and old. Against Port Adelaide they were precise and looked quick and fluid. Barry Hall, a joke against the Saints, was in fine form looking imposing and kicking a bag of five goals. What the Swans did well against the Saints was fight hard for the ball, and they did the same against Port Adelaide and to even greater effect. The Swans will be tested in the next three weeks with trips to Brisbane and Geelong sandwiching a home game against arch-nemesis West Coast.
8. Brisbane (10th 1-1)
- The Lions have the makings of a finals team, but they're going to have to address a few flaws. The main concern is with the backline, which lacks polish and proven players. The other problem is someone standing up to be Jonathan Brown's sidekick. The Lions need a second option up front, be it Jarrod Brennan, Daniel Bradshaw or Mitchell Clark when he returns. Brown seemed to have five guys on him whenever the ball came near him on Friday night. If the Lions want to play finals that can't continue to happen. On the brighter side the midfield looks fantastic - Black, Power, Johnstone, Adcock, Rischitelli on the ball and with Charman and Leuenberger in the ruck they are forming a formidable midfield.
9. Kangaroos (9th 1-1)
-It's still hard to believe the Roos almost played in a grand final last year. Few teams work as hard as the Kangas, but you've got to question how far work ethic can take you - talent's pretty important too. The Roos looked good against Richmond, and you sense that just like last year they'll be putting away the bad teams all year. North last year showed that they know how to beat bad teams, but they can't match it with the elite. This year it'll probably be the same deal.
10. Essendon (11th 1-1)
- I still haven't forgotten how good the Dons looked last week. It's no real surprise that they were thoroughly annihilated by Geelong. Essendon are light years away from Geelong but that doesn't mean they're a bad team. I suspect (in the first half of the season anyway) Essendon will still be able to run a number of teams off their feet. On the topic of providing Lloyd with some forward line support - Adam McPhee centre half forward?
11. West Coast (12th 1-1)
- Troubling signs for West Coast fans. There's no excuse for losing by 12 goals to a team that you probably should have beat. The Eagles looked sloppy against Adelaide and didn't play hard for the footy. You just get the sense that with all the turmoil surrounding West Coast, and the leadership void created by the absence of Chris Judd and to a greater degree Ben Cousins, this is a club lacking direction. The Eagles haven't had a legitimate forward since Peter Sumich. It's shocking that this hasn't been addressed. Quinten Lynch is not the answer. With no Judd or Cousins the Eagles midfield loses 40 goals a season, they can no longer rely on the midfielders to kick 10 goals between them per game. LeCras, Staker and Lynch are all good pieces, but none is a gun forward. Bring in Josh Kennedy.
12. Richmond (8th 1-1)
- Enjoy it while it lasts Tigers faithful, because this will be the last time this season Richmond will find themselves in the top 8. Forget about last week, Carlton aren't a barometer of quality, the Tigers will be bottom four again, and won't contend until 2010.
13. Fremantle (13th 0-2)
- Despite the loss at home the Dockers can take a number of positives out of Saturday night. The Dockers played harder, they rallied, and in general they made a good fist of it against a very good football team. Rhys Palmer looks to have the tools to become a bona fide superstar, something that Matthew Pavlich re-iterated Saturday that he already is. What will be most interesting is how the Dockers deal with Chris Tarrant. 6 kicks and no goals in two weeks is simply not good enough. It's becoming increasingly clear that Tarrant, someone of immense football talent, is not an AFL football player. This year is the last chance for Tarrant to salvage what has been to this date an absolute disgrace of a football career.
14. Port Adelaide (15th 0-2)
- Port need to get their act together and quick. Last year they were the worst team to appear in a grand final since Melbourne in 2000, and they were about 9 seconds away from not making the finals altogether. The Power have been soft since their AFL induction, and that needs to change. The Swans intimidated them into defeat with their toughness around the ball Sunday. The Showdown clash comes at a perfect time for Port Adelaide, it'll be a great way for them to potentially get there season back on track.
15. Carlton (14th 0-2)
- Judd is still obviously hindered by his groin, and the Blues are still clearly hindered by a lack of defence and basic skill errors. Those who tipped the Blues for a finals spot this year are sticking needles in their forearms, this Carlton outfit will not win 8 games.
16. Melbourne (16th 0-2)
- Melbourne are taking mediocrity to a whole new level. It's incredible that a team can lose by 95 points to a) a team they beat last year, b) a team that isn't all that good, and most incredibly c) in shocking wet weather. Geelong 241 Melbourne 40, you heard it here first.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Defining a superstar
a) an ability to win the football. The player has to be able to find and win the pill to be considered a superstar. Guys like Alan Didak and Nathan Brown (Richmond) do marvelous things with the ball, but they only touch it 12-14 times a game - that's not a superstar.
b) at least one brilliant and exceptional characteristic. Nick Stevens racks up 22-25 possessions in his sleep, but is there anything truly exceptional about him? No - so that's not a superstar.
c) this is the big one for me - the sense of knowing that when this player gets the ball they are going to do something special with it - be it bursting through a pack, spearing a pass onto the chest of a forward, or a perfectly placed sweeping handball.
d) they can't have a weakness so significant that it hinders their play consistently.
e) the ability to take over a game.
f) do they go missing? have they done it over a sustained period of time?
Right now I believe the following players are 'considered' to be superstars by the fans and the media - Jonathan Brown, Chris Judd, Dean Cox, Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, Chad Cornes, Adam Goodes, Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Simon Black, Lance Franklin, Sam Mitchell, Daniel Ke
rr.
Lets put them to the test. I mark each criterion out of ten, a final score of 50+ is enough for superstar status in my opinion.
Chris Judd (Carlton/Midfielder)
a) averages 21 disposals for his career, up that to 23 if you discount his first two seasons and the injury plagued 2007. 8.5/10
b) one brilliant characteristic? try four or five with Chris Judd. Judd's strength, composure and disposal all qualify as exceptional, but what makes him so brilliant is his explosiveness. Along with Nick Riewoldt taking a mark going back the flight, Chris Judd bursting through a pack is a defining image of Australian rules football. 10/10
c) no doubter here, whenever Judd wins the footy you know he's going to do something genuinely special with it. 9/10
d) Judd does have a clear weakness - injury. His body seems to find new ways to break down. 5/10
e) Chris Judd has the ability to win and change the direction of games off his own back. 9.5/10
f) Rarely quiet, he's been doing his thing since his first game. 9/10
SUPERSTAR? 51/60 YES
Jonathan Brown (Brisbane/Key Forward)
a) Key forward averages 15 disposals a game, closer to 17 the past few years. 8.5/10
b) He knows no fear. 10/10
c) He is hands down the scariest player in the league for opposition fans. 10/10
d) Two years ago you could say over-aggression was a big problem, but he's quelled that of late. Injury has been a concern as well. 8/10
e) The most dominating player in the league. 10/10
f) Can be quieted, but only when there are three men assigned to him. 8/10
SUPERSTAR? 54.5//60 YES
Daniel Kerr (West Coast/Midfielder)
a) Wins his own footy, averaging close to 23 possies a game post-2004. 9.5/10
b) Fearless, awesome toughness and strength, terrific disposal. 9.5/10
c) Great composure under pressure and good decision making skills make him usually a safe bet to use the ball well. 8.5/10
d) Good run with injuries, cleaned up his act with suspensions, but a weakness of his (that often goes overlooked) is his inability to kick goals. This is a big one for me, gun midfielders need to kick goals. Kerr is to selfless, and lacks a killer instinct near the big sticks. 6.5/10
e) His uncanny ability to win the ball can change a game. 8/10
f) Doesn't get beaten by a tag often, the most consistent of the Judd and Cousins trio while it lasted (you could argue). 9/10
SUPERSTAR? 51/60 YES
Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle/Key Forward)
a) Averages 17 disposals a game, terrific for a key forward. 8.5/10
b) Unreal strength and athleticism. 8.5/10
c) Combination of athleticism, skill and football smarts make him an intimidating force. 8/10
d) No clear weakness. He's consistent (goalless just once in his past 49 games) that's for sure. 9/10
e) He has the ability, but he doesn't exercise it enough. He kicked 6 goals twice last year, Jonathan Brown did it 5 times last year (including a bag of 10) and once already last year. Needs to step up in the big games. 7/10
f) A steady presence, can be relied on to perform. 8.5/10
SUPERSTAR? 51.5/10 YES
Nick Riewoldt (St. Kilda/Key Forward)
a) 16 disposals a game, runs hard on leads like no other to win the footy. 9/10
b) Fearless, incredibly athletic, works hard. 9.5/10
c) No. Riewoldt is prone to kicking mistakes, and misses too many set shots. 6/10
d) Goalkicking yips. Kills momentum with big misses too often. 6.5/10
e) Rarely dominates matches, needs to kick more goals to do that. He averages 2 goals a game for his career, the difference between a St. Kilda premiership and watching the last Saturday in September at home could hinge on his ability to up that to 3 a game. 6/10
f) The nature of his game (leading hard to the wings, always the number one target) means that it's a rarity to see Riewoldt go missing. 9/10
SUPERSTAR? 46/60 NO
Dean Cox (West Coast/Ruckman)
a) Averaging 18 disposals per game and 7 marks the past two seasons, terrific for a ruckman. 9/10
b) Unreal athleticism, fitness and foot skills for a big man. 9/10
c) Cox doesn't do anything spectacular with the ball, but he uses it effectively and can be relied upon. 8/10
d) Has very few flaws to his game, injury/suspension free virtually (21+ games in each of the past four years) 9.5/10
e) Not a true matchwinner but his ruckwork can change a game. 8/10
f) Solid as a rock. 9/10
SUPERSTAR? 52.5/60 YES
Chad Cornes (Port Adelaide/Utility)
a) Averaging around 23 disposals per game from premiership season onwards, averaged 26 last year. 9/10
b) Unreal strength and competitiveness - the most versatile player in the league and perhaps the best overhead mark. 8.5/10
c) Uses the ball efficiently, has the ability to break tackles and take spectacular marks. 8/10
d) Competitiveness leads to over-aggression which leads to too many free kicks against. Poor record goalkicking . 7.5/10
e) Can shutdown opposition forwards, can win the clearances and can win matches by going forward. 8/10
f) Has been consistently in the leagues top twenty players since 2004. 9/10
SUPERSTAR? 50/60 YES
Adam Goodes (Sydney/Midfielder)
a) Averages just 16 disposals per game for his career, around 19 in a collection of his better years. 8/10
b) One of the four or five best athletes in the league, exceptional marking and running ability. 9/10
c) One of the most dangerous players in the league. 9/10
d) Can win matches off his own back. 9.5/10
e) Has played 190+ games in a row. 10/10
f) Has a tendency to go missing in matches, can be shutdown. 6.5/10
SUPERSTAR? 52/60 YES
Watch Chris Run
The bigger story was the performance of Marc Murphy. The kid is already a star, and it's only a matter of time before he reaches superstar status. He doesn't seem especially quick or strong, but his composure, decision making and disposal is insane for someone his age. At the very least he'll be a Nick Dal Santo, but he has the potential to be even more.
The Saints looked absolutely dreadful in the first quarter, looking like the weak laconic side of early 07 and mid 06. They picked up their act in the 2nd and 3rd terms, but it wasn't a thoroughly convincing victory. The next two weeks represent massive tests for St. Kilda. Friday night they play a Bulldogs team full of confidence which will come into the match thinking that they're better than they are. It's crucial for St. Kilda to beat these kinds of middle of the road borderline contender teams if they want to stake a legitimate claim for the premiership. Round 4 is the big one though - Geelong. This will be the ultimate test for the Saints, and will give a great indication of where they are at. The game will hinge of the mindset of the Saints. If St. Kilda succumb to the expectation of taking Geelong to the wire they will get blown out, but if they see themselves as the big underdogs (which they will be) they could give the Cats a run for their money.
With one of the top four midfields in the league (Dal Santo, Hayes, Montagna, Fisher, King) the second best forward line (Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Gehrig, Milne), and (when fit) arguably the best defence in the league (Maguire, Fisher, Hudghton, Gram) that has players that can both shutdown opposition forwards and provide run, the Saints should be hoping for nothing less than a grand final berth.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Curse of Rhyce Shaw
Rhyce Shaw, the son of a former Captain Ray Shaw, and the nephew of the hero of our last premiership, Tony Shaw. Rhyce Shaw, the man with the bloodlines worthy of Magpie knighthood. Rhyce Shaw, the man who slipped and fell on the biggest stage of all. I attribute all of Collingwood's struggles over the last five years solely to the six second passage of play where a young nervous Rhyce Shaw slipped, fell and turned the ball over to Alistair Lynch who pounced and kicked the game-sealing goal in the 2nd quarter of the 2003 grand final. I will never forget that moment. The sheer disbelief that a professional sportsman could make such an elementary mistake on such an important stage. Collingwood didn't lose that grand final because of Anthony Rocca's recklessness in getting suspended the week prior. They didn't lose because Chris Tarrant was molested by Mal Michael and Justin Leppitsch all game. And they didn't lose because Tristen Walked, yes he of the 1 disposal and ill-directed hitouts in opposition territory, somehow won himself selection. They lost purely because Rhyce Shaw choked.
But they didn't just lose the 2003 Grand Final because of Shaw's choke-job for the ages. Everything bad that has happened to Collingwood in the past five years can be attributed to that six second passage where Rhyce lost his bearings. Rhyce Shaw is the reason why Collingwood were struck with injuries and failed to be competitive in 2004 and 2005. Rhyce Shaw is the reason why Collingwood didn't have the percentage points to win a top four spot in 2006. Rhyce Shaw is why Nathan Buckley took the field just 5 times in 2007. Rhyce Shaw is the reason why Gary Ablett snapped and goaled to win the prelim final last September. And Rhyce Shaw is the reason why Collingwood lost to Brisbane last night by 2 points.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Finals football ahead for the Dons?
The loss of Scott Lucas will be massive though. The team now becomes far too dependent on Matthew Lloyd. If Lloyd doesn't kick 5 the chances of Essendon winning are slim. Nathan Lovett-Murray won't kick a bag every week - or any other week for that matter. If the Bombers can get themselves to the break at something like 6-6 Lucas' return could push them into the finals.
Now you might think all this finals talk is a little presumptive after just one round, but hear me out. Geelong, St. Kilda and Hawthorn are virtual locks for September. West Coast will play finals again, and you'd be a hard man to not include Port in your top eight. That's 5 teams, who else is their? I'd be willing to put strong money on my beloved Pies being there for the third consecutive year. That leaves another two teams. Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne won't be anywhere close. Sydney and Adelaide are running on empty. This leaves us with the Kangaroos, Fremantle, the Bulldogs, Brisbane and Essendon. The Bulldogs don't have the game to adapt and beat the better sides in the comp, Fremantle will struggle dearly on the road, and the Kangaroos showed today that they still aren't contenders. For me this leaves the final two spots in the eight to Brisbane and Essendon, with the strong possibility of Freo winning enough games at home to qualify for the eight.
Essendon aren't going to win the flag, and they'll probably get demolished by Geelong next week, but never write off a team that believes in itself. And belief is a quality Essendon today showed they possess.
Pavlich vs. Riewoldt
Jonathan Brown aside, the general consensus is that Fremantle skipper Matthew Pavlich and Saints captain Nick Riewoldt are the premier centre-half forwards in the league. Yesterday I was able to see both in action, and therefore can make a comparison of each in the major categories. Here we go…
Edge: Riewoldt, by a long way. Riewoldt is faster, and seemingly fitter.
Edge: Pavlich. No contest, Pavlich is rock solid.
Edge: Pavlich, just. This one is just about dead-even, but in the dying minutes of a game in the balance I’d rather my team kicking to Pavlich in a pack than Riewoldt.
Edge: Pavlich, by a fair way. Better technique, better record, better goalkicker.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Ferocity vs. Poise
Lenny Hayes
-The ferocity and sheer intensity in which Hayes attacked the ball from the first bounce was truly the stuff of legend. In the first passage of play he went for the ball and whoever was around it with fire I've never seen before.
-Around stoppages Hayes mauled his direct opponent, shredding the tag with sheer strength and tenacity. Hayes had numerous opponents who for the most part succeeded in limiting his impact. At times Hayes could be seen to be fighting off his tagger trying to get free as the ruckman was making contact with the ball.
-It was interesting watching Hayes when he didn't have the ball. Hayes was constantly running, mainly through the corridor, and never slowed to anything less than a jog. The only times he was still was watching someone lineup for goal.
-Hayes generally patrolled the middle of the ground, and the shallow wing, always about a kick ahead of the play.
-Hayes was limited to just 7 kicks and 10 handballs, but he made them count. His handballs in close packs were terrific, and he always put in the extra effort to put on a block and shepherd.
-His kicking was good too, hitting a target inside 50, and using the ball responsibly.
-His leadership was very good as well, directing players to pick up loose men time and time again.
-All in all he had a pretty quiet game, but he made his possessions and especially his presence count.
Nick Dal Santo
-I spent much more time observing Hayes than Dal Santo, but in the final quarter and in the time Hayes was on the bench, I watched Saint Nick.
-Dal Santo started on a half-forward flank, spent some time in the back-pocket, but played the bulk of his game on the ball.
-Dal Santo didn't cover nearly as much ground as Hayes, and could often be seen walking.
-Dal Santo's disposal of the ball was virtually flawless. Of his 15 kicks and 4 handballs I can't remember one that didn't reach its desired destination.
-Nick Dal Santo has a technically perfect kicking action. He releases the ball perfectly, makes clean connection, and is balanced magnificently. Weight transference isn't such a big issue because of his supreme balance.
-Dal Santo isn't a one-dimensional kick of the football either. On display Saturday night were Dal Santo's well placed lofted kicks to the running target or lead, as well as his across the body spear passes inside the forward 50.
-The perception that Dal Santo is strictly a receiver is perhaps warranted, but a tad naive. Dal Santo has superb hands, and time after time he can be seen gathering the ball one-handed in the middle of a congested situation.
-The highlight of the game came with a freaky one-handed mark from Dal Santo, which was followed by a perfectly waited kick to hit a target 15m out from goal.
-Nick Dal Santo is a star make no mistake. He has exquisite skills, unmatched poise and unreal balance. What separates him from superstar status is his general inability to win his own football. He's a player that needs space to utilise his game, and that's why he's better suited as a receiver-type.
The final verdict
Lenny Hayes and Nick Dal Santo are completely different players. Lenny Hayes is fearless lionheart, Dal Santo is the debonair skill-set. Dal Santo has a better feel for the ball and uses the ball better than Hayes, but Hayes is harder at the ball and much better at winning his own football. Ultimately though Hayes workrate and on-field leadership eclipses Dal Santo. Compared strictly as individuals Dal Santo is the superior player. But looking at the greater picture, and taking on-field influence into account you'd take Lenny Hayes every single time.
Early signs
An interesting first round match-up for sure, that showed some good signs and some not so good ones. Firstly, it was great to see Collingwood's fitness to run out the fourth quarter. The legs and fitness were a hallmark of 2007, so it's fantastic to see that has been retained in 08. The first three quarters of the game were a mixed bag, blending great passages with terrible ones. The Pies finally came to life for good in the early stages of the last quarter, spearheaded by Anthony Rocca and Dale Thomas. A few thoughts on the game...
-Nathan Brown is a keeper. He's big, of great strength, and wins the one-on-ones (with Matthew freakin' Pavlich!). I didn't really get a good look at his closing speed, or the timing of his spoils, so that's something I'll have to pay attention next week. He basically looks like a bigger stronger Presti.
-Given the right set-up Anthony Rocca can still dominate games. What I've basically come to expect from Rocca the past few years is that he'll dominate about 4 games per year and kick 5-6 goals in each, he'll be completely shutdown in around about the same amount of games (see: prelim final last year), and the other 10-12 he'll kick his 2-3 goals and do alright. Yesterday he dominated, he had his kicking boot on and led by example. And is it just me or do the Rocca brothers own Fremantle? Rocca kicked 6 today, 5 last year in the same fixture, and remember the game years back where Sav lit them up for 12 goals? Hmmmmmmmm
-Josh Fraser you are a disgrace to the black and white colours. I will never forgive Fraser for chickening out of the West Coast and Geelong finals last year. Yesterday, Fraser was at his worst. Classic Josh Fraser in the ruck - timing his jumps shockingly early so that by the time the ball has reached its apex he's already on the way down. Adding to the annals of Fraser shame yesterday was an incident that occurred at an important stage in the middle of the game. Fraser and Peter Bell were one out in the Freo goal square and Bell out-muscled and out-marked Josh Fraser. Yes Bell, he of the 5'10 height. Bell goaled and the momentum swung. Let us not forget that in Scott Burns' absence yesterday Josh Fraser was the captain. The captain being out-marked by someone about 20cm and 20kg his junior. Disgusting Josh.
-Alan Didak and Paul Medhurst need to become smarter football players. I can appreciate that Didak played well yesterday and bagged a trio of goals, but his showpony attempt at a superman goal in the 2nd half was unforgivable. Paul Medhurst plays hard, but someone has to tell him their is a difference between hard and blatantly reckless.
-Chris Egan should be delisted. He was the worst player on the ground in the first half. He made skill errors, failed to break tackles, and gave away a 50m penalty that led to a Fremantle goal. He made a nice play in the 3rd term, but right now he's first to go when Scotty Burns and Ben Johnson return.
-On a brighter note Cameron Wood showed some good signs. He played well in the ruck and did some good things around the ground. Yes, he missed a goal he should have kicked, but I'm willing to forget that in light of his strong performance.
-Leon Davis take a bow. As good as Rocca was, Davis was the best player on the field for me. He kicked a brace of goals (one a magnificent snap to virtually win the game in the last quarter), won the ball out of the centre and used it superbly. Apologies to Tarkyn Lockeyer, but Leon Davis may very well be the best user of the ball in the team now that Nathan has hung up the boots.
Collingwood played OK, hardly the quality of football they played in last year's finals campaign, but for a first round performance it was passable. The fact that they were able to put together a comprehensive victory despite playing only 30 minutes of genuinely decent football says a lot about the quality of the opponent. This game re-asserted the fact that Fremantle is still a pretender. The back-line struggled, but that was more due to the mediocre play of the midfield than anything. The allegedly 'formidable' forward line looked pretty pedestrian. Pavlich played well, but given the good play of Brown he had to win his 21 disposals mainly on the wing and deep along half-forward. Jeff Farmer had a minor impact, McPharlin came too little too late, and Chris Tarrant... well, yeah.
Many consider Fremantle to have legitimate aspirations for a top four spot. I was among them. But yesterday showed that Fremantle are the same old team (emphasis on old, they have the least youthful list in the league). Great on paper, but too mentally fragile to ever succeed away from home. Sure Freo might win 9 out of the 12 games they play at Subiaco, but they'll drop at least 7 of the ten on the road. Make no mistake, this team is not winning a final any place other than Western Australia.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Fearless predictions
Carlton 24
Port Adelaide 9
Collingwood 18
West Coast 20
St. Kilda 48
Adelaide 6
Hawthorn 6
Essendon 2
Ladder prediction (regular season)
1. Geelong
2. St. Kilda
3. West Coast
4. Hawthorn
5. Port Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Collingwood
8. Sydney
9. Kangaroos
10. Adelaide
11. Bulldogs
12. Brisbane
13. Essendon
14. Carlton
15. Richmond
16. Melbourne
Premier: St. Kilda
Runner-up: Geelong
Brownlow: Sam Mitchell
Improved player: Brent Stanton
What I most want to see (from an AFL perspective): One of Nick Riewoldt, Lance Franklin and Jonathan Brown kicking 100 goals.
What I most want to see (from a Collingwood perspective, aside from a premiership): Josh Fraser's first All-Australian selection.
Two games in...
Richmond 109 vs. Carlton 79
-The general consensus after the game was that Chris Judd makes Carlton a better team, but it will take time. The fact is that one player, no matter how good he is, does not make a team. Carlton fans and the media are completely off the mark in saying that Carlton could contend for a finals spot this year. This year the Blues' ceiling is 8-9 wins and 10th spot. More likely is 6-7 wins and 13-14th position. The team plays absolutely no defence, the attack is too Fevola oriented, and the midfield isn't tough enough.
-Richmond still aren't a good football team. They're slightly better than Carlton, but that's not saying much. Richmond are a team that if everything goes right (Brown stays healthy, Coughlan returns to 05 form, Richo kicks 55-60 goals) they could make an impact. In my eyes though they're still 1-2 years away from competing for the 8th spot.
-Nathan Brown could be just about the most exciting player in the league when he's on.
Geelong 105 vs. Port Adelaide 96
-Geelong are every bit as good as they were last year. Defence is rock solid, forward line is okay, midfield is incredible. Bartel and Ablett are two of the five best midfielders in the comp, Ling is arguably the best tagger, and then you have to worry about All-Australian Joel Corey and future Brownlow Medallist Joel Selwood.
-Geelong is still too Mooney-dependent. Mooney goes down and Geelong are West Coast 05-07, great defence, amazing midfield, terrible forward line. Tom Hawkins is not the answer yet, and Steve Johnson and Matty Stokes are complementary pieces. Mooney is the key.
-No team runs the ball out of defence than Geelong. Incredible stuff watching Scarlett gather, run and give the hands off before they break through the corridor.
-I actually tipped Port last night (making me 0-2) figuring that the ruck match-up of Lade and Brogan would be too much for Geelong. Port won the ruck but did a poor job giving their own midfielders first use of the footy. Credit to Geelong for adapting to the situation so well.
-I have as much respect for Kane Cornes as I do for any other AFL player. The guy is an elite tagger who always locks down his direct opponent, and picks up 30 disposals every weekend. He's not especially quick or strong, and his kicking is an eyesore, but he finds the ball and works hard for four quarters.
-His brother might be my favourite player in the AFL. Chad is the complete AFL player. Relatively quick, unreal strength, one of the strongest pairs of hands in the league, and he uses the ball well by foot and by hand. He reads the play magnificently as well. He's by far the most versatile player in the league, and probably the most valuable. Putting aside the fact that he's an arrogant prick, if you were going to pick a single AFL player to start a team it'd be Chad Cornes.
-Warren Tredrea is nothing but a waste of space.
-Westhoff is not a football player.
-Daniel Motlop is the most mentally inept player in the league.
-Port are hard to figure, because they were 35 seconds from missing finals last year (as opposed to finishing 2nd). They're not premiership material, but to me they look good enough to compete for a top four spot and maybe even a home final.