A lengthy layoff but I'm back...
St. Kilda vs. Essendon
Massive danger game for St. Kilda. One half of my really expects the speedy Bombers to completely run the slower Saints off their feet. The other half reasons that good teams win these matches, and I (even though I know I shouldn't) believe the Saints are a good team and Essendon are not. The winner of this game will probably be decided in the first ten minutes - whoever dictates the pace of the game will win. For the record I don't think ditching Fraser Gehrig was the right move. It's laziness from the Saints coaching management. Stick Gehrig in the goal-square, Koschitzke 30 out from goal rotating into the ruck, and Riewoldt at true Centre-Half Forward dropping back to 30 out when Kosi's in the ruck. Easy? Saints by 12
Geelong vs. Sydney
Don't kid yourselves, this will be a blowout. The Swans are simply too slow, and the Cats (unlike the Saints in round 1) are too smart to play to Sydney's gameplan. The Cats will run and create like they always do and goals will abound. Geelong by 40
Adelaide vs. Fremantle
Last week asserted that the Crows aren't legitimate flag contenders but will definitely contend for the 8. Last week also asserted that Fremantle are a complete disgrace. Losing to the worst team in the competition AT HOME a week after a big victory is totally unforgivable. You almost have to feel that Fremantle should start rebuilding again, and hopefully put together a half-decent time with Matthew Pavlich still near his prime. How sad is that? The Dockers have basically spent ten years building to a three year period where they were thumped in a preliminary final, failed to make the eight, and now who knows what happens this year. Adelaide by 16
Collingwood vs. Kangaroos
Last week was as disgraceful as it was surprising for Collingwood. This year and last year the Pies relied on foot skills and applying pressure to win matches. On the weekend they were terrible by foot (Dane Swan 13/18 ineffective kicks) and were simply outhustled by a mediocre team that wanted it more. Expect the Pies to bounce back this week against the ever consistent Kangaroos. Collingwood by 5
Brisbane vs. Hawthorn
Match of the round easily. Brisbane right now is somewhere in between 2006 and 2007 Hawthorn - fantastic youth beginning to come together, but not quite there yet. The Lions are a fringe finals team this year, and the Hawks are the greatest threat to Geelong's throne. The interesting thing here is Brisbane's home ground advantage, and whether the Hawks will be able to deal with pressure away from home. I suspect they will, but I think this has the makings of a ripper contest. Hawks by 20
Melbourne vs. Carlton
Melbourne should just quit really. Just mail-in the next 18 weeks and pick up the #1 draft pick. It's so pathetic that a team that won a final 18 months ago has next to no conceivable shot at victory against a team that has won once in 16 matches. Nuff said. Carlton by 24.
Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond
I suspect last week was a mere anomaly for Richmond. One match every year will defy all types of logic and give us a shocking result. Last year it was Brisbane beating Collingwood by 90+ points at the 'G (after the Pies dispatched Brisbane by 5 goals at the GABBA). This year it was Richmond stunning Fremantle. Expect the Tigers to play hard but hit the ground harder against the resurgent Bulldogs. Bulldogs by 27
West Coast vs. Port Adelaide
Brisbane v Hawthorn may be the match of the round, but in terms of the general season this match will have the greatest impact of the weekend. The loser of this match you expect will have close to zero shot at finals in 2008. A loss for the Eagles, they're 1-4 with a four match losing streak (including 2 at home) and missing a bulk of their key players. A loss for the Power and they're 0-5 with a difficult schedule. Huge match, and when two mediocre teams go up against each other you have to give the edge to the home team. That, coupled with the returns of Embley and Wirrapanda might just hammer the nails into the Port Adelaide coffin. West Coast by 6
Running score
R1: 4, R2: 5, R3: 7, R4: 5, TOTAL: 21
Friday, April 18, 2008
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Over already?
Let me preface this by saying that I believe the Port Adelaide team of 2007 was one of the ten worst of all time to ever appear in a Grand final. They were the fourth best team in the competition and only reached the grand final because of some last second madness in matches against Hawthorn and Geelong, Collingwood being in the wrong side of the finals draw, and West Coast being raped by injuries to Judd, Cousins, Kerr and Hansen. Fans and media recognized this fact, and although expectations for Port Adelaide this year were high, they were also tempered. Port were expected to contend for top four, and push for top two with some luck. Either way they were considered a lock for finals. Four weeks in and four devastating losses later the Power's season might already be over. Can they turn their fortunes around? Let's see.
For any team to rebound from 0-4 and make the 8 they must have a pretty talented list and team. The Power midfield is one of quickest most skilled in the competition. They have the best ruck duo in the league (Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan), the best two-way midfielder in the league (Kane Cornes) and the two of the silkiest players in the league the Burgoyne brothers. Throw in hard worker Dominic Cassisi, the electric Danyle Pearce and the league's number one swingman hot-head Chad Cornes, and you've got an elite midfield. The defence is suspect, headed by reliable Toby Thurstans and backed up by a number of youngsters. The forward 50 has dead-weight leader Warren Tredrea, perennially underrated Brad Ebert, young prodigy Justin Westhoff, mental basket case/occasional superstar Daniel Motlop, and a rotating midfielder and you've got an adequate forward line.
On paper the team isn't as good as you might initially suspect, but it's nonetheless a list capable of playing finals. The team is built around a fantastic nucleus of the Cornes, Burgoyne and Ruck brothers - everyone else is a supporting act. That nucleus carried Port to a grand final last year. Things have changed this year though, the competition is greater. Whereas last year you had (Geelong aside) only three legitimate contenders - West Coast, Collingwood and Port - this year you have a hell of a lot more. Collingwood have improved, Hawthorn has taken the next step, the Bulldogs are a force, St. Kilda is healthy and Adelaide and Sydney are rejuvenated. Right there you have six teams competing with Geelong for a flag, throw in the unpredictable Brisbane and Fremantle and you have a heated finals race. Merely being decent, as Port were last year, won't get the job done in 2008.
From their induction into the league to the present day Port have branded the label of soft. Their perennial finals choking is well remembered. The current team is one that relies on speed and finesse, not toughness and hard work. The same went for the wasted dynasty of the early 21st century. Port Adelaide are a football club that has always relied on skill. Skill doesn't win premierships, it helps, but something greater is required. The Bombers of 2000 were a force that intimidated teams into defeat with run, toughness and punishing scores. The Lions of 2001-2003 were an incredible physical force that dominated teams with their toughness and strength. Sydney of 2005 were a structured team that lived and died on trust and work ethic. The enduring image of the 2006 West Coast Eagles premiership team is Daniel Kerr's desperation gut-busting run in the dying seconds of the Grand Final.
Port Adelaide of 2004 won a premiership because they had Byron Pickett and Damien Hardwick - two catalysts that demanded toughness from teammates and loved the physical contest. Port were respectable in week one against the Cats, week two against Sydney they were intimidated into submission by pressure, week three they were out-hustled by Adelaide, and last night - the worst loss yet - they simply choked. That's the only possible excuse for conceding a 47 point 3rd quarter lead in wet weather.
Next week the Power have an excellent opportunity to right the ship. They travel away to an equally disoriented West Coast - a team without Matthew Priddis and David Wirrapanda (and yeah, Cousins and Judd too). A win at Subiaco could give Port the boost to get a bit of form going. And I suspect Mark Williams at this stage would take any victory he could get. In conclusion, no the winless four weeks have not doomed Port Adelaide to the bottom eight, but it is equally clear that this team does not - and has never - have what it takes to win a premiership.
For any team to rebound from 0-4 and make the 8 they must have a pretty talented list and team. The Power midfield is one of quickest most skilled in the competition. They have the best ruck duo in the league (Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan), the best two-way midfielder in the league (Kane Cornes) and the two of the silkiest players in the league the Burgoyne brothers. Throw in hard worker Dominic Cassisi, the electric Danyle Pearce and the league's number one swingman hot-head Chad Cornes, and you've got an elite midfield. The defence is suspect, headed by reliable Toby Thurstans and backed up by a number of youngsters. The forward 50 has dead-weight leader Warren Tredrea, perennially underrated Brad Ebert, young prodigy Justin Westhoff, mental basket case/occasional superstar Daniel Motlop, and a rotating midfielder and you've got an adequate forward line.
On paper the team isn't as good as you might initially suspect, but it's nonetheless a list capable of playing finals. The team is built around a fantastic nucleus of the Cornes, Burgoyne and Ruck brothers - everyone else is a supporting act. That nucleus carried Port to a grand final last year. Things have changed this year though, the competition is greater. Whereas last year you had (Geelong aside) only three legitimate contenders - West Coast, Collingwood and Port - this year you have a hell of a lot more. Collingwood have improved, Hawthorn has taken the next step, the Bulldogs are a force, St. Kilda is healthy and Adelaide and Sydney are rejuvenated. Right there you have six teams competing with Geelong for a flag, throw in the unpredictable Brisbane and Fremantle and you have a heated finals race. Merely being decent, as Port were last year, won't get the job done in 2008.
From their induction into the league to the present day Port have branded the label of soft. Their perennial finals choking is well remembered. The current team is one that relies on speed and finesse, not toughness and hard work. The same went for the wasted dynasty of the early 21st century. Port Adelaide are a football club that has always relied on skill. Skill doesn't win premierships, it helps, but something greater is required. The Bombers of 2000 were a force that intimidated teams into defeat with run, toughness and punishing scores. The Lions of 2001-2003 were an incredible physical force that dominated teams with their toughness and strength. Sydney of 2005 were a structured team that lived and died on trust and work ethic. The enduring image of the 2006 West Coast Eagles premiership team is Daniel Kerr's desperation gut-busting run in the dying seconds of the Grand Final.
Port Adelaide of 2004 won a premiership because they had Byron Pickett and Damien Hardwick - two catalysts that demanded toughness from teammates and loved the physical contest. Port were respectable in week one against the Cats, week two against Sydney they were intimidated into submission by pressure, week three they were out-hustled by Adelaide, and last night - the worst loss yet - they simply choked. That's the only possible excuse for conceding a 47 point 3rd quarter lead in wet weather.
Next week the Power have an excellent opportunity to right the ship. They travel away to an equally disoriented West Coast - a team without Matthew Priddis and David Wirrapanda (and yeah, Cousins and Judd too). A win at Subiaco could give Port the boost to get a bit of form going. And I suspect Mark Williams at this stage would take any victory he could get. In conclusion, no the winless four weeks have not doomed Port Adelaide to the bottom eight, but it is equally clear that this team does not - and has never - have what it takes to win a premiership.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Truly the end of an era
Right now I'm watching the Sydney vs. West Coast 'blockbuster' on channel ten. It's midway through the third term and a flawed Sydney is man-handling the Eagles to the tune of 50 points. So I ask myself? How on Earth did this happen?
OK, so everyone knew that the absence of Ben Cousins and Chris Judd would hurt the Eagles this year. The question was how much. The consensus was that, yes the void would be difficult to fill, but the Eagles would still be premiership contenders on the basis that they did win 15 games last year with Ben Cousins out of action for just that many games, and Chris Judd hampered significantly by injury. Everyone figured that the Eagles still had a formidable midfield headlined by Daniel Kerr (perhaps the premier midfielder in the league), Dean Cox (undoubtedly the premier ruckman in the league), Andrew Embley, Matthew Priddis, Tyson Stenglein, Michael Braun and young guns Beau Waters, Adam Selwood and Matt Rosa, arguably the best defence in the competition with the likes of Darren Glass, Adam Hunter, Shannon Hurn, Brett Jones and add in some very capable role players (Mark LeCras, Mark Seaby, David Wirrapanda, Brent Staker) and the ideal arrangement for bounce-back years for Chad Fletcher and Mark Nicoski and you just about figure this team is a lock for at least top six.
So on the verge of a 1-3 record, how has everything gone wrong? Put it down to two things - depth and identity. The easier thing to analyse from a purely football perspective is of course depth. The main problem, and the most publicised, is the fact that Daniel Kerr is now warranting the number one opposition tagger. Over the past few years you'd say that generally Chris Judd would get the #1 tagger, Cousins the #2 and Kerr probably #3. That's completely wrong though, because no single team in the AFL has ever employed three taggers with the pure purpose to shutdown opposition players. Generally a team will have one, maybe two designated taggers, and other players will be manned up on by run-with players.
So effectively Daniel Kerr has gone from playing on players just as focused on getting the ball as they are on stopping him, to players that have the simple assignment to almost disregard their own game and make his life misery. Obviously it's a massive step to take for Kerr, to continue to play at a high standard despite being so closely watched. Lone superstars in the midfield, the Nathan Buckley's and Brent Harvey's of the world have been able to take the next step - I believe Kerr has what it takes to do the same, it's only a matter of time.
The bigger problem lies less with Kerr and more with the overall composition of the West Coast midfield. The brilliance of the West Coast Eagles in the past few years was their amazing depth in the middle. You had to deal with Judd, Cousins and Kerr - then you also had to worry about very good players like Andrew Embley, Matthew Priddis, Tyson Stenglein, Michael Braun and Chad Fletcher. With the absence of the aforementioned superstars, Priddis and Braun are now the #2 and #3 in the midfield. Priddis is still an AFL youngster (26 games), and Braun (30) has his best well behind him. Andrew Embley is only useful when loose and running - now he's warranting a much tighter tag, and his game will suffer. Tyson Stenglein thrived in the Eagles arrangement being the number 1 tagger and racking up an easy 16-18 possies per game (22 last year), now he has to be more effective working as an attacking player. Stenglein is a fantastic player, but his suspect disposal by foot will come under more scrutiny now. Chad Fletcher has virtually thrown away his career, and is at a crossroads right now having just been dropped from the team.
The lower positions in the midfield depth chart, one occupied by the players listed above, are now being handled by the flanker-turned-midfielder Beau Waters (a good move) and a handful of unpolished youngsters (Chris Masten, Matt Rosa, Adam Selwood). The difference from Judd, Cousins, Kerr to Kerr, Braun, Priddis and from Stenglein, Embley, Fletcher to Waters, Masten, Rosa has been massive.
One other thing I have to note before moving on to the next point is the lack of firepower in the midfield. The Eagles have never had a good forward line, but they've been able to kick winning scores through their midfielders (midfielders who can kick goals and provide sustained entry to the forward 50). Cousins and Judd could be counted on for 45 goals a year, and countless forward 50 entries. In the midfield now you have Kerr, Priddis, Braun, Stenglein and Fletcher, none of whom are goalkickers. Andrew Embley is the only midfielder they have that can be counted as a scoring threat week in week out.
OK, in spite of the lost depth and the lack of killer goal instinct in the middle, the Eagles are still a very solid team. So what's really at work here? A loss of identity. I'm going to make a bold statement here and say that no single player over the past 15 years has meant more to a playing group than Ben Cousins. In his time at the Eagles Ben Cousins was a god (a Ben Cousins piece is on the way, for now I'll stick to West Coast 08), the spiritual leader of the team. He was the most loved player by the fans and within the team. So, not only do you lose your spiritual leader and superstar, but weeks later you lose your captain, best player and arguably the finest player in the league. I think people tend to underrate individual players. The argument is that one player can't have THAT significant impact on a game that has 21 other players. What is often left out is that one player can indirectly impact the playing ability of all 21 players. That's something than Ben Cousins, and to a lesser extent, Chris Judd did week in week out. They made their teammates better with their player and their leadership. That's not something you can replace.
Daniel Kerr is not a leader, Dean Cox is too nice a guy, and although Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein have the heart and ferocity of a lion, they don't consistently inspire through their play. Not only have the Eagles lost their two best players, they've lost their two best leaders. The Eagles can bounce back this year, but they won't be serious contenders for the premiership. In order to bounce back the midfield have to embrace their new roles filled with greater expectation, and Daniel Kerr needs to establish himself as a leader. You sense that the Eagles midfielders are playing as though Judd and Cousins are still there carrying the load, that's obviously not the case and veterans Braun, Kerr and Stenglein need to lead by example.
Ultimately I could talk as much as I liked about the impact of a loss of depth, the lack of leadership, and heightened roles for midfielders, but at the end of the day the fact is that for three years the oft-spoken poetic run-on sentence 'Judd, Cousins, Kerr' has inspired hope, fear and mainly awe for a generation of football fans - and now two of them are gone.
OK, so everyone knew that the absence of Ben Cousins and Chris Judd would hurt the Eagles this year. The question was how much. The consensus was that, yes the void would be difficult to fill, but the Eagles would still be premiership contenders on the basis that they did win 15 games last year with Ben Cousins out of action for just that many games, and Chris Judd hampered significantly by injury. Everyone figured that the Eagles still had a formidable midfield headlined by Daniel Kerr (perhaps the premier midfielder in the league), Dean Cox (undoubtedly the premier ruckman in the league), Andrew Embley, Matthew Priddis, Tyson Stenglein, Michael Braun and young guns Beau Waters, Adam Selwood and Matt Rosa, arguably the best defence in the competition with the likes of Darren Glass, Adam Hunter, Shannon Hurn, Brett Jones and add in some very capable role players (Mark LeCras, Mark Seaby, David Wirrapanda, Brent Staker) and the ideal arrangement for bounce-back years for Chad Fletcher and Mark Nicoski and you just about figure this team is a lock for at least top six.
So on the verge of a 1-3 record, how has everything gone wrong? Put it down to two things - depth and identity. The easier thing to analyse from a purely football perspective is of course depth. The main problem, and the most publicised, is the fact that Daniel Kerr is now warranting the number one opposition tagger. Over the past few years you'd say that generally Chris Judd would get the #1 tagger, Cousins the #2 and Kerr probably #3. That's completely wrong though, because no single team in the AFL has ever employed three taggers with the pure purpose to shutdown opposition players. Generally a team will have one, maybe two designated taggers, and other players will be manned up on by run-with players.
So effectively Daniel Kerr has gone from playing on players just as focused on getting the ball as they are on stopping him, to players that have the simple assignment to almost disregard their own game and make his life misery. Obviously it's a massive step to take for Kerr, to continue to play at a high standard despite being so closely watched. Lone superstars in the midfield, the Nathan Buckley's and Brent Harvey's of the world have been able to take the next step - I believe Kerr has what it takes to do the same, it's only a matter of time.
The bigger problem lies less with Kerr and more with the overall composition of the West Coast midfield. The brilliance of the West Coast Eagles in the past few years was their amazing depth in the middle. You had to deal with Judd, Cousins and Kerr - then you also had to worry about very good players like Andrew Embley, Matthew Priddis, Tyson Stenglein, Michael Braun and Chad Fletcher. With the absence of the aforementioned superstars, Priddis and Braun are now the #2 and #3 in the midfield. Priddis is still an AFL youngster (26 games), and Braun (30) has his best well behind him. Andrew Embley is only useful when loose and running - now he's warranting a much tighter tag, and his game will suffer. Tyson Stenglein thrived in the Eagles arrangement being the number 1 tagger and racking up an easy 16-18 possies per game (22 last year), now he has to be more effective working as an attacking player. Stenglein is a fantastic player, but his suspect disposal by foot will come under more scrutiny now. Chad Fletcher has virtually thrown away his career, and is at a crossroads right now having just been dropped from the team.
The lower positions in the midfield depth chart, one occupied by the players listed above, are now being handled by the flanker-turned-midfielder Beau Waters (a good move) and a handful of unpolished youngsters (Chris Masten, Matt Rosa, Adam Selwood). The difference from Judd, Cousins, Kerr to Kerr, Braun, Priddis and from Stenglein, Embley, Fletcher to Waters, Masten, Rosa has been massive.
One other thing I have to note before moving on to the next point is the lack of firepower in the midfield. The Eagles have never had a good forward line, but they've been able to kick winning scores through their midfielders (midfielders who can kick goals and provide sustained entry to the forward 50). Cousins and Judd could be counted on for 45 goals a year, and countless forward 50 entries. In the midfield now you have Kerr, Priddis, Braun, Stenglein and Fletcher, none of whom are goalkickers. Andrew Embley is the only midfielder they have that can be counted as a scoring threat week in week out.
OK, in spite of the lost depth and the lack of killer goal instinct in the middle, the Eagles are still a very solid team. So what's really at work here? A loss of identity. I'm going to make a bold statement here and say that no single player over the past 15 years has meant more to a playing group than Ben Cousins. In his time at the Eagles Ben Cousins was a god (a Ben Cousins piece is on the way, for now I'll stick to West Coast 08), the spiritual leader of the team. He was the most loved player by the fans and within the team. So, not only do you lose your spiritual leader and superstar, but weeks later you lose your captain, best player and arguably the finest player in the league. I think people tend to underrate individual players. The argument is that one player can't have THAT significant impact on a game that has 21 other players. What is often left out is that one player can indirectly impact the playing ability of all 21 players. That's something than Ben Cousins, and to a lesser extent, Chris Judd did week in week out. They made their teammates better with their player and their leadership. That's not something you can replace.
Daniel Kerr is not a leader, Dean Cox is too nice a guy, and although Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein have the heart and ferocity of a lion, they don't consistently inspire through their play. Not only have the Eagles lost their two best players, they've lost their two best leaders. The Eagles can bounce back this year, but they won't be serious contenders for the premiership. In order to bounce back the midfield have to embrace their new roles filled with greater expectation, and Daniel Kerr needs to establish himself as a leader. You sense that the Eagles midfielders are playing as though Judd and Cousins are still there carrying the load, that's obviously not the case and veterans Braun, Kerr and Stenglein need to lead by example.
Ultimately I could talk as much as I liked about the impact of a loss of depth, the lack of leadership, and heightened roles for midfielders, but at the end of the day the fact is that for three years the oft-spoken poetic run-on sentence 'Judd, Cousins, Kerr' has inspired hope, fear and mainly awe for a generation of football fans - and now two of them are gone.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Round 4 tips
Essendon vs. Western Bulldogs
No Lloyd, no Lucas, no chance. If everything goes right for the Dons they might contain the likes of Johnson, Akermanis and Hahn in defence, and they might even win the midfield battle with their blinding speed. But they have literally no forward line. Who is going to kick their goals? Jason Laycock is currently lining up as full forward, not inspiring much confidence. I wrote earlier that the Bulldogs were too weak physically to contend for a top four spot, after last weeks sterling performance I take it back - for the time being. The Dogs were truly magnificent in the last three quarters on Friday night, they run unbelievably hard and they did all the small things. I expect this game will be played at a breakneck pace, so it should be one to check out. Bulldogs by 24.
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
This week's 'nobody cares' game - aside of course from all the Kangaroos and Demons supporters, all 14 of them. The Kangaroos reiterated against Hawthorn that they are still a decent time, but also showed that they still don't have that additional gear to rise to the elite. A strong performance from Melbourne against the Cats, but they were given too much credit - the Cats were simply sloppy. The Kangaroos are the best in the league at beating bad teams (Geelong aside of course), and that's exactly what Melbourne is. Kangaroos by 36
St. Kilda vs. Geelong
Last Thursday this was looking like the match of the round. Not anymore, Hawthorn vs. Adelaide takes that mantle. The Saints desperately have to respond to the disgraceful loss to the Bulldogs. I don't really think the result matters for the Saints, this is going to be a statement game. If the Saints play hard and do the tough things then they'll be winners no matter what. Right now I can't see St. Kilda beating Geelong in any possible manner. But this could be a building block for St. Kilda for another contest in September. The Cats will also be looking to be respond from a miserable performance against Melbourne. Ultimately the Cats are simply too fast and too much of a team for the slow and mentally soft Saints. Geelong by 27
Sydney vs. West Coast
Seems pretty early to be writing off the Eagles doesn't it? Then again they've looked a shadow of the 2005-07 in recent weeks. Was this a two man team? (I'll discuss the impact of Judd and Cousins on the Eagles during the upcoming week) I think the Eagles will come out this week trying to prove that they're not. Props to management for cutting loose the slack Chad Fletcher and Mark Nicoski. Embley, Kerr, Priddis (out this week), Braun, Stenglein, Cox is still an excellent midfield, combine that with the strong defence of Darren Glass, Adam Hunter and Beau Waters and you have a team that should be playing finals. The Swans have looked fantastic early on, but don't warrant this extreme favouritism. Ultimately I think it will come down to West Coast missing Priddis, Wirrapanda and a healthy Dean Cox. Sydney by 5
Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane
Port Adelaide have been overrated for the last six months, but they're still a decent team. They've fought hard in two of their three losses, and haven't looked all that terrible. The problem is that they are too soft around the edges. You'd think a guy with as much agro as Chad Cornes would inspire a little passion. Brisbane are a decent team but they're too young and unpolished around the edges. Nobody inspires much confidence for Port matching up on one J. Brown, so he'll be the x-factor. I expect Brown to kick 5-6 but Port's crowd to carry them home. Port Adelaide by 16
Hawthorn vs. Adelaide
Two of the four form teams of the competition go at it on neutral ground. Adelaide in the past have been able to shut down Hawthorn and play the game on their terms. The Crows have changed their style to a more fast-paced game to adapt though, and it seems to be working. This is the game of the round, but I think Hawthorn simply have too much offensive firepower and I expect them to run over the top of the workmanlike Crows. Hawthorn by 35
Carlton vs. Collingwood
I told you Carlton v Essendon would be a 20+ goals each team kind of match. That's the way Carlton plays, and against inept defensive teams like Essendon it can work. Collingwood can't be sucked into a shootout, because those games can go either way. It's happened in the past against Carlton, but I suspect this time the Pies will be able to handle the Blues much like St. Kilda did. Collingwood are too disciplined, too well coached and too skilled to lose this match. The foot skills on display against Richmond were unreal. The Pies are playing their best footy since mid-2003, and the most skilled footy I've ever seen them play. Collingwood by 29
Fremantle vs. Richmond
Great game by the Dockers on Saturday, grabbing a crucial win over the arch rival. I know it's early, but a Dockers loss against West Coast and the season would have been all but over. The Dockers have now played two good games in a row, and Richmond should be nothing but pedestrian opposition. Considering Richmond's terrible defence, this will be a great chance for Chris Tarrant to find some form. The Dockers will especially want to win this one considering they fly to Adelaide to play the Crows and come home to play Geelong in the next fortnight. Fremantle by 40
No Lloyd, no Lucas, no chance. If everything goes right for the Dons they might contain the likes of Johnson, Akermanis and Hahn in defence, and they might even win the midfield battle with their blinding speed. But they have literally no forward line. Who is going to kick their goals? Jason Laycock is currently lining up as full forward, not inspiring much confidence. I wrote earlier that the Bulldogs were too weak physically to contend for a top four spot, after last weeks sterling performance I take it back - for the time being. The Dogs were truly magnificent in the last three quarters on Friday night, they run unbelievably hard and they did all the small things. I expect this game will be played at a breakneck pace, so it should be one to check out. Bulldogs by 24.
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
This week's 'nobody cares' game - aside of course from all the Kangaroos and Demons supporters, all 14 of them. The Kangaroos reiterated against Hawthorn that they are still a decent time, but also showed that they still don't have that additional gear to rise to the elite. A strong performance from Melbourne against the Cats, but they were given too much credit - the Cats were simply sloppy. The Kangaroos are the best in the league at beating bad teams (Geelong aside of course), and that's exactly what Melbourne is. Kangaroos by 36
St. Kilda vs. Geelong
Last Thursday this was looking like the match of the round. Not anymore, Hawthorn vs. Adelaide takes that mantle. The Saints desperately have to respond to the disgraceful loss to the Bulldogs. I don't really think the result matters for the Saints, this is going to be a statement game. If the Saints play hard and do the tough things then they'll be winners no matter what. Right now I can't see St. Kilda beating Geelong in any possible manner. But this could be a building block for St. Kilda for another contest in September. The Cats will also be looking to be respond from a miserable performance against Melbourne. Ultimately the Cats are simply too fast and too much of a team for the slow and mentally soft Saints. Geelong by 27
Sydney vs. West Coast
Seems pretty early to be writing off the Eagles doesn't it? Then again they've looked a shadow of the 2005-07 in recent weeks. Was this a two man team? (I'll discuss the impact of Judd and Cousins on the Eagles during the upcoming week) I think the Eagles will come out this week trying to prove that they're not. Props to management for cutting loose the slack Chad Fletcher and Mark Nicoski. Embley, Kerr, Priddis (out this week), Braun, Stenglein, Cox is still an excellent midfield, combine that with the strong defence of Darren Glass, Adam Hunter and Beau Waters and you have a team that should be playing finals. The Swans have looked fantastic early on, but don't warrant this extreme favouritism. Ultimately I think it will come down to West Coast missing Priddis, Wirrapanda and a healthy Dean Cox. Sydney by 5
Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane
Port Adelaide have been overrated for the last six months, but they're still a decent team. They've fought hard in two of their three losses, and haven't looked all that terrible. The problem is that they are too soft around the edges. You'd think a guy with as much agro as Chad Cornes would inspire a little passion. Brisbane are a decent team but they're too young and unpolished around the edges. Nobody inspires much confidence for Port matching up on one J. Brown, so he'll be the x-factor. I expect Brown to kick 5-6 but Port's crowd to carry them home. Port Adelaide by 16
Hawthorn vs. Adelaide
Two of the four form teams of the competition go at it on neutral ground. Adelaide in the past have been able to shut down Hawthorn and play the game on their terms. The Crows have changed their style to a more fast-paced game to adapt though, and it seems to be working. This is the game of the round, but I think Hawthorn simply have too much offensive firepower and I expect them to run over the top of the workmanlike Crows. Hawthorn by 35
Carlton vs. Collingwood
I told you Carlton v Essendon would be a 20+ goals each team kind of match. That's the way Carlton plays, and against inept defensive teams like Essendon it can work. Collingwood can't be sucked into a shootout, because those games can go either way. It's happened in the past against Carlton, but I suspect this time the Pies will be able to handle the Blues much like St. Kilda did. Collingwood are too disciplined, too well coached and too skilled to lose this match. The foot skills on display against Richmond were unreal. The Pies are playing their best footy since mid-2003, and the most skilled footy I've ever seen them play. Collingwood by 29
Fremantle vs. Richmond
Great game by the Dockers on Saturday, grabbing a crucial win over the arch rival. I know it's early, but a Dockers loss against West Coast and the season would have been all but over. The Dockers have now played two good games in a row, and Richmond should be nothing but pedestrian opposition. Considering Richmond's terrible defence, this will be a great chance for Chris Tarrant to find some form. The Dockers will especially want to win this one considering they fly to Adelaide to play the Crows and come home to play Geelong in the next fortnight. Fremantle by 40
Saturday, April 5, 2008
Still pretenders
I can only imagine what it would be like to be a St. Kilda fan. Seriously. This is a team that has won one premiership ever. Ever. And it was by one point. But really the past five years must be the pinnacle of St. Kilda despair. I mean, when you look at the youth that this team drafted it's incredible that they haven't won multiple premierships. The foundation of the team is built with Nick Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzke, Nick Dal Santo, Leigh Montagna, Luke Ball, Matt McGuire, Brendon Goddard, Sam Fisher and the Clarke brothers. Has there even been that talented a core group of young players? Ever? I don't think so. Add in the veteran presence of Robert Harvey, Lenny Hayes, Max Hughdton and Fraser Gehrig, with a surplus of capable role players, and you have what should be a dynasty. Why hasn't it happened? There are a few reasons, some excusable, some not.
A lot can be blamed on simple bad luck. The preliminary final of 2004 where the Saints fell by a lone goal to Port Adelaide at AAMI stadium wasn't because of poor play. Play that final quarter 100 times and St. Kilda would win the game 50 times. It was heartbreaking, but it could be attributed to a lack of luck and simply it was Port's year. This becomes mute though because St. Kilda would never have threatened Brisbane in a Grand Final. The 2005 season went down the drain because of bad decision making. The QF victory in Adelaide was possibly St. Kilda's best win of the decade. This was in vein though because St. Kilda management opted to play players like Justin Koshitzke, clearly limited by injury, in the preliminary final vs. Sydney. Not surprisingly St. Kilda's wounded soldiers were rolled by the Swans in the final quarter.
Much of the 06 and 07 seasons can be pinned on injury. The Saints lost countless core players for large portions of these seasons. It seemed players like Hayes, Koschitzke, Hamill, etc just never took the field.
But there's something that runs deeper than injury and luck with the Saints. The simple fact is that at the end of the day, as a team, St. Kilda are soft and mentally inept. Every time the Saints take the field in an important match it just seems as though they lack any sort of inner belief or testicular fortitude. When good teams are challenged they respond. When the Saints are challenged they wither and die. In finals since 2004 St. Kilda are 2-4. For a group so talented, that is unacceptable. For good measure, look at Collingwood since 2002. Hardly a super talented lineup of big names like St. Kilda, but Collingwood win because of self-belief and confidence. The Pies are 6-4 in finals since 02, and were probably one kick away from being 8-3.
2008 is supposed to be the year that St. Kilda comes together and makes it click. They are fully healthy, fully fit, and have addressed the big issue of ruckman. There truly are no excuses left. They have a new fitness staff, new found depth, and they should have a unquenchable thirst for success.
Last night we saw that the Saints are exactly the same team that they have always been. Lots of big names, occasional spurts of brilliance, but when forced under pressure they show their true self - undeniably soft.
A lot can be blamed on simple bad luck. The preliminary final of 2004 where the Saints fell by a lone goal to Port Adelaide at AAMI stadium wasn't because of poor play. Play that final quarter 100 times and St. Kilda would win the game 50 times. It was heartbreaking, but it could be attributed to a lack of luck and simply it was Port's year. This becomes mute though because St. Kilda would never have threatened Brisbane in a Grand Final. The 2005 season went down the drain because of bad decision making. The QF victory in Adelaide was possibly St. Kilda's best win of the decade. This was in vein though because St. Kilda management opted to play players like Justin Koshitzke, clearly limited by injury, in the preliminary final vs. Sydney. Not surprisingly St. Kilda's wounded soldiers were rolled by the Swans in the final quarter.
Much of the 06 and 07 seasons can be pinned on injury. The Saints lost countless core players for large portions of these seasons. It seemed players like Hayes, Koschitzke, Hamill, etc just never took the field.
But there's something that runs deeper than injury and luck with the Saints. The simple fact is that at the end of the day, as a team, St. Kilda are soft and mentally inept. Every time the Saints take the field in an important match it just seems as though they lack any sort of inner belief or testicular fortitude. When good teams are challenged they respond. When the Saints are challenged they wither and die. In finals since 2004 St. Kilda are 2-4. For a group so talented, that is unacceptable. For good measure, look at Collingwood since 2002. Hardly a super talented lineup of big names like St. Kilda, but Collingwood win because of self-belief and confidence. The Pies are 6-4 in finals since 02, and were probably one kick away from being 8-3.
2008 is supposed to be the year that St. Kilda comes together and makes it click. They are fully healthy, fully fit, and have addressed the big issue of ruckman. There truly are no excuses left. They have a new fitness staff, new found depth, and they should have a unquenchable thirst for success.
Last night we saw that the Saints are exactly the same team that they have always been. Lots of big names, occasional spurts of brilliance, but when forced under pressure they show their true self - undeniably soft.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Rivalry round tips
St. Kilda vs. Western Bulldogs
This is a huge opportunity for St. Kilda to show that they belong in the same company as Geelong and Hawthorn. The Bulldogs are high on confidence, and will be pumped to win. Even if the Dogs win the midfield battle (unlikely) their forward line doesn't have the tools to match St. Kilda's elite defence. At the other end of the field the Dogs won't be able to cover Riewoldt, Gehrig AND Koschitzke. St. Kilda by 18
Kangaroos vs. Hawthorn
Finals rematch and a chance for Hawthorn to show that they've matured as a team. The elimination final loss last year was disastrous for Hawthorn, and they can take strides here to rectify it. The Kangaroos play hard but much like the case was when they lost to Essendon, I suspect Hawthorn will simply run them off their feet. Hawthorn by 28
West Coast vs. Fremantle
The best rivalry in Australia currently, considering the competitive unbalance between Collingwood and Carlton. Last year's round 18 derby was my favourite match of the year. It was hands down the most fiery and intense clash of the year, and the Cousins vs. The Carr brothers matchup was the best of the year. The great thing about this rivalry is that these two teams generally hate each other. The Dockers always get up for the derby, and considering the buildup I suspect that they might just want it a bit more than West Coast. Fremantle by 17
Essendon vs. Carlton
Given the closeness of their recent battles it'd be fair to see that this rivalry is now the best in Victoria. Both teams love to run, are one-dimensional up forward, and struggle defensively. This is going to be a ripper clash with the possibility of both teams kicking 20 goals. I'm going to go with Essendon, solely because they have legitimate finals aspirations and Carlton don't. Essendon by 3
Brisbane vs. Sydney
I'll never forget last year's clash where Simon Black's desperate run and give led to Jonathan Brown's game-tying goal from outside 50 in the dying seconds. The drawn match was an enthralling encounter. This is probably the most evenly matched fixture of the round. It could go either way, but I'm going to go with Sydney's experience and discipline over Brisbane's talent and youth. Sydney by 9
Geelong vs. Melbourne
Perhaps the most uneven match up of all time. Touted as the slaughter of the millennium, it'll be a test of Dean Bailey's mettle to see how he goes about this clash. If he loads the backline and plays for a 9 goal loss it'll send the wrong message to his young troops. If Melbourne lose by 12 goals but play hard then it's a good result. Geelong by 86
Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide
Adelaide have been a surprise so far and Port have been disappointing. The Crows play a structured free flowing game and more importantly they do the team things. They are a well-oiled team. Port on the other hand have some greatly talented players but they're soft and don't win the footy. Adelaide by 26
Collingwood vs. Richmond
Collingwood's problem last year was that they struggled against mediocre teams. They have to improve on that this year, and they can start Sunday by atoning for the shock loss to Richmond last year. One thing I would like to see - if Collingwood build a substantial lead at three quarter time, could they please for once hold it and not concede late percentage killing goals? Collingwood by 24
This is a huge opportunity for St. Kilda to show that they belong in the same company as Geelong and Hawthorn. The Bulldogs are high on confidence, and will be pumped to win. Even if the Dogs win the midfield battle (unlikely) their forward line doesn't have the tools to match St. Kilda's elite defence. At the other end of the field the Dogs won't be able to cover Riewoldt, Gehrig AND Koschitzke. St. Kilda by 18
Kangaroos vs. Hawthorn
Finals rematch and a chance for Hawthorn to show that they've matured as a team. The elimination final loss last year was disastrous for Hawthorn, and they can take strides here to rectify it. The Kangaroos play hard but much like the case was when they lost to Essendon, I suspect Hawthorn will simply run them off their feet. Hawthorn by 28
West Coast vs. Fremantle
The best rivalry in Australia currently, considering the competitive unbalance between Collingwood and Carlton. Last year's round 18 derby was my favourite match of the year. It was hands down the most fiery and intense clash of the year, and the Cousins vs. The Carr brothers matchup was the best of the year. The great thing about this rivalry is that these two teams generally hate each other. The Dockers always get up for the derby, and considering the buildup I suspect that they might just want it a bit more than West Coast. Fremantle by 17
Essendon vs. Carlton
Given the closeness of their recent battles it'd be fair to see that this rivalry is now the best in Victoria. Both teams love to run, are one-dimensional up forward, and struggle defensively. This is going to be a ripper clash with the possibility of both teams kicking 20 goals. I'm going to go with Essendon, solely because they have legitimate finals aspirations and Carlton don't. Essendon by 3
Brisbane vs. Sydney
I'll never forget last year's clash where Simon Black's desperate run and give led to Jonathan Brown's game-tying goal from outside 50 in the dying seconds. The drawn match was an enthralling encounter. This is probably the most evenly matched fixture of the round. It could go either way, but I'm going to go with Sydney's experience and discipline over Brisbane's talent and youth. Sydney by 9
Geelong vs. Melbourne
Perhaps the most uneven match up of all time. Touted as the slaughter of the millennium, it'll be a test of Dean Bailey's mettle to see how he goes about this clash. If he loads the backline and plays for a 9 goal loss it'll send the wrong message to his young troops. If Melbourne lose by 12 goals but play hard then it's a good result. Geelong by 86
Port Adelaide vs. Adelaide
Adelaide have been a surprise so far and Port have been disappointing. The Crows play a structured free flowing game and more importantly they do the team things. They are a well-oiled team. Port on the other hand have some greatly talented players but they're soft and don't win the footy. Adelaide by 26
Collingwood vs. Richmond
Collingwood's problem last year was that they struggled against mediocre teams. They have to improve on that this year, and they can start Sunday by atoning for the shock loss to Richmond last year. One thing I would like to see - if Collingwood build a substantial lead at three quarter time, could they please for once hold it and not concede late percentage killing goals? Collingwood by 24
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
From a waste of talent to a waste of space: The Chris Tarrant story
There was a time when I genuinely believed Chris Tarrant was going to breakout and establish himself as a bona fide superstar. Every pre-season from 2001 to 2005 I told myself this was going to be the year that Chris shows the world what he's got. People would say that I was colourblind, seeing only in my beloved black and white, but I had absolute faith that someone with Chris Tarrant's sheer natural talent was destined to be something special. Tarrant possessed unmatched speed on a lead, rarely dropped a mark, had terrific skills around the ground with his pinpoint short kicking and well waited handballs, and had a knack for the sensational. In his Collingwood years Tarrant was the best snap shot for goal in the league, and arguably the best at spectacular marking as well. Despite all this he was constantly held back by one element of his game - his kicking for goal.
It's difficult to truly express the awkward sensation of watching Chris Tarrant line up a set shot for goal. In the early years (98-02) I just convinced myself that he was a professional athlete and such an obvious weakness would be addressed with endless practice. But it wasn't. In 2003, the prime year of Tarrant's career, I simply couldn't watch, it was too painful. I'd tilt my head and watch out of the corner of my eye. When he missed (most of the time) I'd sulk and feel sick, when he goaled I'd take a deep breath and grin. In 2004-06 I took a new approach. Every time Tarrant marked within 40 metres of goal on a relatively easy angle I'd simply mentally skip ahead to the inevitable kick-in that would follow his miss, and when he'd kick a goal it'd be a pleasant surprise.
The evolution of Tarrant in front of goal parallels his career in general. In the early days he was a useful player but he didn't have great expectations, and didn't have to deal with the copious amounts of pressure he'd have to later on. Lack of pressure led to calmness and confidence in front of goal, in his first two full years of AFL footy (00-01) he kicked an efficient 81.42 in front of goals. In 2002 and 2003 where he was treated and respected as a star, he struggled in front of goal (92.75) due to the immense pressure. After the injury plagued 04 and 05 seasons his willingness to sacrifice his body in contests disappeared, and courage was replaced with complacency. In 2006 he was a shadow of the player he was in 2003.
It always amazed me how someone with such great kicking skills around the ground (I considered Tarrant the premier passing key forward in the league) could be so abysmal in front of goal. Ultimately it comes down to a supreme lack of confidence. Tarrant can kick goals from 55m out and from the impossible angle easily, but 25m on a slight angle he'll miss more times than not. That solely comes down to mental weakness.
It's incredible how deflating a player Chris Tarrant is. For the defence to hold steady and the midfield to work tirelessly to provide opportunity for a forward, only to see the forward to miss time and time again. All that work down the drain, it's a terrible feeling. It's the Chris Tarrant feeling.
I for one was initially disappointed when I heard of the Tarrant trade to Fremantle. The return seemed adequate (Paul Medhurst and the #8 pick), but I was disappointed in Collingwood. It was a signal that they were giving up on Tarrant pure and simple. I thought Tarrant would blossom in the West, it was the perfect situation for him. He had escaped the intense demands of Collingwood fans, he was playing for a team in the media shadow of another, and he was lining up along Matthew Pavlich. But it wasn't to be.
Tarrant took the easy road once again, choosing to be comfortable in a secondary role instead of striving towards excellence. Tarrant had a disappointing 2007 kicking 33.27, failing to finish top ten in the b&f, and getting into off-field trouble. In his past three games he has averaged 6 disposals and hasn't kicked a goal, and is now facing a potential omission from the team.
It's remarkable how far Tarrant has fallen. It's a tragic study, to see one man's confidence be absolutely decimated over the course of a decade. It's been a gradual decline, and in the past two weeks Tarrant has finally hit rock bottom. The decline began in 2004, but it's taken too long for it to happen. Tarrant has never had to work for anything, he's always rested on the laurels of his talent. That's not enough anymore though. His refusal to work hard and run himself into the ground has caught up with him. No longer is he able to cruise and coast through games. I fully expect Tarrant to be dropped this week, and if he's not that says a lot about Fremantle Football Club. No team should expect mediocrity, but for ten years that's what Chris Tarrant has provided. At 27 Tarrant can still bounce back, but time is slipping from him.
My defining memory of Chris Tarrant came in the 2003 season against Geelong. I was there at the Telstra Dome the night he took the mark of the year and I remember it vividly. I had my eyes focused on whether or not the Collingwood player's shot was going to be a goal or not and out of nowhere Tarrant arrived from the back of the back with an incredible launch and spectacular mark. I remember clearly the incredible balance of Tarrant in the air and still as he hit the ground. They don't teach that stuff, that was pure natural brilliance. What I remember most though is not for a second after the mark did I think he would kick the goal. I had no doubt in my mind. And he missed. That ladies and gentlemen is Chris Tarrant in a nutshell.
It's difficult to truly express the awkward sensation of watching Chris Tarrant line up a set shot for goal. In the early years (98-02) I just convinced myself that he was a professional athlete and such an obvious weakness would be addressed with endless practice. But it wasn't. In 2003, the prime year of Tarrant's career, I simply couldn't watch, it was too painful. I'd tilt my head and watch out of the corner of my eye. When he missed (most of the time) I'd sulk and feel sick, when he goaled I'd take a deep breath and grin. In 2004-06 I took a new approach. Every time Tarrant marked within 40 metres of goal on a relatively easy angle I'd simply mentally skip ahead to the inevitable kick-in that would follow his miss, and when he'd kick a goal it'd be a pleasant surprise.
The evolution of Tarrant in front of goal parallels his career in general. In the early days he was a useful player but he didn't have great expectations, and didn't have to deal with the copious amounts of pressure he'd have to later on. Lack of pressure led to calmness and confidence in front of goal, in his first two full years of AFL footy (00-01) he kicked an efficient 81.42 in front of goals. In 2002 and 2003 where he was treated and respected as a star, he struggled in front of goal (92.75) due to the immense pressure. After the injury plagued 04 and 05 seasons his willingness to sacrifice his body in contests disappeared, and courage was replaced with complacency. In 2006 he was a shadow of the player he was in 2003.
It always amazed me how someone with such great kicking skills around the ground (I considered Tarrant the premier passing key forward in the league) could be so abysmal in front of goal. Ultimately it comes down to a supreme lack of confidence. Tarrant can kick goals from 55m out and from the impossible angle easily, but 25m on a slight angle he'll miss more times than not. That solely comes down to mental weakness.
It's incredible how deflating a player Chris Tarrant is. For the defence to hold steady and the midfield to work tirelessly to provide opportunity for a forward, only to see the forward to miss time and time again. All that work down the drain, it's a terrible feeling. It's the Chris Tarrant feeling.
I for one was initially disappointed when I heard of the Tarrant trade to Fremantle. The return seemed adequate (Paul Medhurst and the #8 pick), but I was disappointed in Collingwood. It was a signal that they were giving up on Tarrant pure and simple. I thought Tarrant would blossom in the West, it was the perfect situation for him. He had escaped the intense demands of Collingwood fans, he was playing for a team in the media shadow of another, and he was lining up along Matthew Pavlich. But it wasn't to be.
Tarrant took the easy road once again, choosing to be comfortable in a secondary role instead of striving towards excellence. Tarrant had a disappointing 2007 kicking 33.27, failing to finish top ten in the b&f, and getting into off-field trouble. In his past three games he has averaged 6 disposals and hasn't kicked a goal, and is now facing a potential omission from the team.
It's remarkable how far Tarrant has fallen. It's a tragic study, to see one man's confidence be absolutely decimated over the course of a decade. It's been a gradual decline, and in the past two weeks Tarrant has finally hit rock bottom. The decline began in 2004, but it's taken too long for it to happen. Tarrant has never had to work for anything, he's always rested on the laurels of his talent. That's not enough anymore though. His refusal to work hard and run himself into the ground has caught up with him. No longer is he able to cruise and coast through games. I fully expect Tarrant to be dropped this week, and if he's not that says a lot about Fremantle Football Club. No team should expect mediocrity, but for ten years that's what Chris Tarrant has provided. At 27 Tarrant can still bounce back, but time is slipping from him.
My defining memory of Chris Tarrant came in the 2003 season against Geelong. I was there at the Telstra Dome the night he took the mark of the year and I remember it vividly. I had my eyes focused on whether or not the Collingwood player's shot was going to be a goal or not and out of nowhere Tarrant arrived from the back of the back with an incredible launch and spectacular mark. I remember clearly the incredible balance of Tarrant in the air and still as he hit the ground. They don't teach that stuff, that was pure natural brilliance. What I remember most though is not for a second after the mark did I think he would kick the goal. I had no doubt in my mind. And he missed. That ladies and gentlemen is Chris Tarrant in a nutshell.
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