Round 5 tips

A lengthy layoff but I'm back...

St. Kilda vs. Essendon

Massive danger game for St. Kilda. One half of my really expects the speedy Bombers to completely run the slower Saints off their feet. The other half reasons that good teams win these matches, and I (even though I know I shouldn't) believe the Saints are a good team and Essendon are not. The winner of this game will probably be decided in the first ten minutes - whoever dictates the pace of the game will win. For the record I don't think ditching Fraser Gehrig was the right move. It's laziness from the Saints coaching management. Stick Gehrig in the goal-square, Koschitzke 30 out from goal rotating into the ruck, and Riewoldt at true Centre-Half Forward dropping back to 30 out when Kosi's in the ruck. Easy? Saints by 12

Geelong vs. Sydney

Don't kid yourselves, this will be a blowout. The Swans are simply too slow, and the Cats (unlike the Saints in round 1) are too smart to play to Sydney's gameplan. The Cats will run and create like they always do and goals will abound. Geelong by 40

Adelaide vs. Fremantle

Last week asserted that the Crows aren't legitimate flag contenders but will definitely contend for the 8. Last week also asserted that Fremantle are a complete disgrace. Losing to the worst team in the competition AT HOME a week after a big victory is totally unforgivable. You almost have to feel that Fremantle should start rebuilding again, and hopefully put together a half-decent time with Matthew Pavlich still near his prime. How sad is that? The Dockers have basically spent ten years building to a three year period where they were thumped in a preliminary final, failed to make the eight, and now who knows what happens this year. Adelaide by 16

Collingwood vs. Kangaroos

Last week was as disgraceful as it was surprising for Collingwood. This year and last year the Pies relied on foot skills and applying pressure to win matches. On the weekend they were terrible by foot (Dane Swan 13/18 ineffective kicks) and were simply outhustled by a mediocre team that wanted it more. Expect the Pies to bounce back this week against the ever consistent Kangaroos. Collingwood by 5

Brisbane vs. Hawthorn

Match of the round easily. Brisbane right now is somewhere in between 2006 and 2007 Hawthorn - fantastic youth beginning to come together, but not quite there yet. The Lions are a fringe finals team this year, and the Hawks are the greatest threat to Geelong's throne. The interesting thing here is Brisbane's home ground advantage, and whether the Hawks will be able to deal with pressure away from home. I suspect they will, but I think this has the makings of a ripper contest. Hawks by 20

Melbourne vs. Carlton

Melbourne should just quit really. Just mail-in the next 18 weeks and pick up the #1 draft pick. It's so pathetic that a team that won a final 18 months ago has next to no conceivable shot at victory against a team that has won once in 16 matches. Nuff said. Carlton by 24.

Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond

I suspect last week was a mere anomaly for Richmond. One match every year will defy all types of logic and give us a shocking result. Last year it was Brisbane beating Collingwood by 90+ points at the 'G (after the Pies dispatched Brisbane by 5 goals at the GABBA). This year it was Richmond stunning Fremantle. Expect the Tigers to play hard but hit the ground harder against the resurgent Bulldogs. Bulldogs by 27

West Coast vs. Port Adelaide

Brisbane v Hawthorn may be the match of the round, but in terms of the general season this match will have the greatest impact of the weekend. The loser of this match you expect will have close to zero shot at finals in 2008. A loss for the Eagles, they're 1-4 with a four match losing streak (including 2 at home) and missing a bulk of their key players. A loss for the Power and they're 0-5 with a difficult schedule. Huge match, and when two mediocre teams go up against each other you have to give the edge to the home team. That, coupled with the returns of Embley and Wirrapanda might just hammer the nails into the Port Adelaide coffin. West Coast by 6

Running score

R1: 4, R2: 5, R3: 7, R4: 5, TOTAL: 21