Bogey team

Over the years there have been a number of teams Collingwood just struggle to beat. The Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Melbourne for instance always seem to get the better of Collingwood no matter what the situation with ladder positions. On the flipside there are a few teams the Pies have the wood over. The media would have you believe that one of these teams is Geelong, but that's not exactly true. It is true to some extent (the 86 point shock this year, and the 100+ point thumping in 2006), but the fact remains that Geelong have won 2 of the past 3 against the Woods. The two teams that really stand out to me are one Adelaide, and two Sydney.

After the Pies' big grinding win on Saturday night against the Swans we can officially label ourselves as Sydney's bogey team. Why have Collingwood beaten Sydney on the past 5 occasions (including 4 in the past 12 months)? It's hard to say. Collingwood's backline lacks depth yet time and time again they minimalise the damage of Sydney's three-pronged attack of Hall, O'Loughlin and O'Keefe. (The fact that they can do this but get thoroughly dominated by the one-dimensional Fevola-oriented Carlton attack is maddening). The Woods' ruckman are arguably the worst in the league, yet they seem to hold their own against Everitt and Jolley - arguably the best in the league.

To me Collingwood's leverage over Sydney comes down to this. The Swans have a solid backline with a guy that provides drive from the back-flank (Kennelley), a workmanlike midfield of accountable players, and a terrifically structured forward line in the league. They win games because of their commitment, pressure and intensity. That's basically Collingwood in a nutshell (with Heath Shaw taking Kennelley's role). Collingwood do all the things that Sydney do, just better. The difference between the two teams is that Collingwood is vastly more talented, faster and younger. The other difference is that Collingwood have playmakers and gamebreakers like Dale Thomas, Scott Pendlebury, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak. Each of those four guys can turn a game singlehandedly within minutes. Thomas did just that in the first half. Creating something out of nothing. Sydney have just one of those players, and he didn't even play Saturday night. Say what you want about the Swans but without Adam Goodes they are a fringe top 8 team.

The difference between Collingwood and Sydney is all about the ceiling. At best Sydney is a 4th team that bows out in a preliminary final. That's their ceiling. Collingwood on their day can beat any team in the league. Sydney can not, and as disciplined and well coached as they may be, you need superior talent to win a premiership. Collingwood have that and Sydney doesn't.

Saturday night was not a pleasant spectacle, but the Pies got the job done. A spurt in the second quarter capped by Travis Cloke's fantastic goal from 55m out won the match. Collingwood's defensive efficiency in the first three quarters was truly remarkable. Not only did Sydney score just 2 goals (one of which resulted from a Heath Shaw 50m penalty), they never looked like scoring. Every time the ball went into the Swans forward line the Pies had the numbers and composure to clear the ball cleanly. I will admit to being a bit scared in the final term, and had O'Loughlin kicked that relatively easy goal with something like eight minutes remaining to make the score 61-45 I might be writing the eulogy to Collingwood's season right now. Fortunately it wasn't to be, and the Pies held on.

A few notes from the game...

-Collingwood murdered Sydney winning the contested ball. It just seemed that every time there was a contested possession to be won the Pies came up with the goodes that Sydney didn't have, awful pun I know.
-On most occasions you could put that down to Collingwood's superior quickness, and more often than not - superior football IQ.
-Disappointing from Heath Shaw. Firstly to give away a stupid 50m penalty that directly led to the goal that let Sydney back in the match. Secondly and more importantly though, he missed the perfect 'fuck you' moment minutes later when he missed a relatively simple set shot at the other end. Champions make that shot at goal.
-I don't care that he's got zero skill and makes poor decisions with the ball, I want Tyson Goldsack on my team. He does the one percenters as well as anyone in the league. His smothers, his accountability and his desperation is fantastic. I love you moneybags.
-Travis Cloke is a star. Saturday night he was the best player on the field hands down.
-Dale Thomas has that James Hird quality where he could only get 9 touches for a game and still be the best player on the field. Can't overstate how huge he was in the first quarter.
-What did Barry Hall and Michael O'Loughlin kick between them? Was it 2.7?
-Sydney's three main forwards (Hall, O'Loughlin, O'Keefe) kicked 3.8, Collingwood's three main ones (Cloke, Medhurst, Thomas) kicked 8.5. That's huge.
-How frustrating was the inaccuracy of the first quarter? Luckily after the abysmal 1.5 of the first quarter (5 makeable shots) Collingwood kicked 10.8 for the rest of the game.
-Sydney came back strong in the last quarter, but they should have come back stronger - they kicked seven behinds in the final term.
-John Anthony looked solid. He won't be a star, but with his solid overhead marking and aerial ability he could be a decent player.
-Great to see how far Alan Didak has come on his opposite foot. Early last year he literally could not kick the ball on his right foot. Saturday night he hit targets along the boundary with it and kicked the sealing goal with a spearing 35m drop punt on it.

All in all it was a good win for the Pies, not pretty, but extremely necessary. It's a big step towards the top 4, and at the very least securing a spot in the top 8. At this point Collingwood are Sydney's only legitimate competition for 4th spot and the right to play Geelong, something I'm sure Collingwood fans would relish (86 FREAKIN POINTS!!). That said, the top 4 is overrated this year. Not the teams that are in it, but the importance of it per se. With the top three teams being Victorian and the fourth being Sydney, it's not like years past where finishing out of the top four might been a trip to play in the house of death against Judd, Cousins, Kerr Eagles in Perth or a trip to Brisbane or Port Adelaide. If Collingwood finish out of the 4 but in the 8, and win their first final, they're going to be playing either at the MCG or in Sydney, which as we know is hardly a bad thing. Give me an elimination final against the Swans in Sydney anyway of the week.

Of course the double chance is still huge and Collingwood still have to solidify their spot in the eight. The Sydney win was a start, and they can continue with a win next week against Adelaide at the 'G. And if they have any premiership aspirations, that's a game they absolutely have to win.