The four (2007)

Every season I like to believe that their are four teams with genuine premiership aspirations. These are usually the top four teams at the end of the regular season, but circumstances (an easy draw, one slip-up) might permit a weaker team to finish one spot ahead of a stronger team. So I'm not talking about the top four teams in terms of ladder position, but the top four teams in terms of quality, potential and produced play. For instance, the Kangaroos were the 4th placed team at the end of the home and away season last year, but they fared 3-7 against the other teams in the top eight (4-9 after finals). They were the product of an easy draw, and in reality they were probably the 7th best team in the competition that year.

It's not only unlikely, but almost statistically unheard of for a team to finish in the bottom half of the eight and win the premiership. Adelaide of '98 finished 5th and won the flag, the only example of a team in the bottom half of the eight doing so. In fact, dating back to 1969 the premier has emerged from the top three every year other than the '92 Eagles, '97 Crows and the aforementioned '98 Adelaide unit. My berated point is this - teams simply don't pop out of nowhere in finals to take premiership glory. They need to establish consistent high-quality in the regular season, teams simply don't turn it on come September.

Last year the four teams that had legitimate premiership aspirations were Geelong, Collingwood, West Coast and Port Adelaide - probably in that order too. Port Adelaide were in way over their head that season, and in retrospect their success was probably the worse thing possible for that team at the time. They succeeded through heart, a duo of brothers, and a ridiculous penchant for stealing games in the clutch. They won games against Hawthorn and Geelong away from home in the final ten seconds, and escaped with a three point win against injury-battered West Coast in the preliminary final. In essence they got lucky. West Coast seemed to be on the flipside of Port Adelaide's luck. It's amazing how many bad breaks this team caught. They came up against an inspired Essendon unit in Round 22 which prevented them from getting the percentage points they required to finish second and earn a home final. Daniel Kerr found himself injured watching the season end from the sideline, Ben Cousins tore his hamstring effectively ending his season, and Chris Judd played the second half of the season at about 30% before reaching a point where he simply could not play anymore. They lost their two finals by three points and in extra time. I'll always hate the football Gods for denying us the chance to see Geelong fight with a fit Judd, Cousins, Kerr led West Coast unit in a Grand Final. I maintain to this day that the Eagles would have won that match - but we'll never know.

Injury woes and inconsistent play (the thumping at the hands of Port in Round 15, home losses to St. Kilda and Brisbane, the inability to put away Essendon in Round 22) have me believe that the Eagles were really a shadow of the team they were in 05-06. It wasn't necessarily their own fault, but mitigating circumstances just never really allowed that team to gel. They looked like they were coming together after the return of Cousins, finishing the season on a 6-1 tear, but injuries played their part. Funnily enough, Collingwood, the team that finished 6th ended up being the second best team last year. The Pies were strong across the board and played a style suited to the intensity of finals. We dominated Sydney, and then showed tremendous steel to beat West Coast. Of course everyone says that beating West Coast without Judd, Cousins and Kerr is like winning a Major without Tiger Woods, but this was still a huge win. Here's my reasoning. Judd had been injured even before Cousins returned, an injured Judd had become part of the 2007 West Coast Eagles identity. The Pies were missing Josh Fraser, who for Collingwood is as important if not more so than either Cousins or Kerr is for West Coast. The main thing is though that Collingwood came into Perth and won on West Coast's home turf. We went into their house, and we earned our ticket back home to a preliminary final. Then we made Geelong sweat like no other team had.

Obviously the other team in the four last year was the dominant Cats. Tomorrow I'll look at the teams in this year's four.