The four (2008)

In direct relationship to my previous post, I thought I'd have a look at the four teams that have a genuine shot at the flag this season. This season is interesting, as unlike last year where it appeared there were just two elite teams (Geelong and the now fallen Eagles) that had legitimate flag aspirations, this year we have three - and the drop-off between the top three and the fourth appears to be significant... or not (bear with me).

The three I'm talking about occupy the top three spots on the ladder, and will almost certainly finish the home and away season there. Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn have been the three best teams this season and the ladder reflects that. The third place Hawks currently have a 2-and-a-half lead over the Swans, as well as a slight percentage edge, so the top three now are most likely here to stay. Geelong, following their ultra-impressive handling of the Dogs Saturday have a six point buffer as well as a huge percentage edge over their nearest rivals - they'll finish top again, no worries. The fact is that Geelong will finish top and play fourth, and the Hawks and Dogs will play off meaning that finishing second opposed to third is absolutely meaningless.

Today I want to look at two things, 1 - of these three which is most equipped to win the premiership, and 2 - which is the team most likely to challenge them?

On the first point. If this weekend demonstrated anything it's that the Cats are still the class of the competition. They play such an attacking take-the-game-on style of footy, it's intoxicating. They don't just look good though, they're the most effective team in the comp. They've got the best player in the league, and the best midfield. Having Ablett, Bartel, Ling, Corey, Kelly, Selwood gives Geelong six absolute gun midfielders - no other team can claim to have that. The defense, and the rebound from defense is close to the best and the best in the competition. I still maintain that Matthew Scarlett is the team's most important player. The forward line is underrated too. They've got a legitimate tall key forward in Cam Mooney, and have a number of capable forwards. Steve Johnson and Matty Stokes I'm looking at you.

The defending champs aren't without weaknesses though. Firstly, the team seems to be incredibly injury prone. You can't really hold that against them, but it will hurt them in the future. Secondly, the forward line isn't that good. The Cats are in many ways just a more daring West Coast Eagles 2005-06 unit with a bit more depth. They constant between these teams is the lack of a superstar forward. Cam Mooney is a step-up over the Big Q, but a superstar he is not. A quick athletic defense can stop the Cat's forwards. Thirdly, Josh Hunt can be targeted. He's not that bad a player, but he gets beaten regularly, and he makes poor decisions with the ball. Lastly, and most importantly, these Cats have shown that when pushed they can break. Collingwood has broken them twice already. They went missing against Fremantle earlier this year. They have flaws. They're a fantastic team yes, but it's easier to find flaws in this team than it is to find in the Essendon and Brisbane dynasties. They can be beaten.

Of the Hawks and the Bulldogs which team is most likely to take the Cat's crown? Neither made a very strong case this weekend, but based strictly on potential you can't go past Hawthorn. If this team can get its act together, they have the highest ceiling of any team in the league, including Geelong. The defence on paper is mediocre, but the system they have in place is more than effective - although it has holes as the Bulldogs have exploited. The midfield is superb when its up and going. Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Chance Bateman, Brad Sewell and a healthy Shane Crawford is a fantastic starting five in the midfield. The special thing about the Hawks midfield is that they have all these guys like Osbourne, Lewis, Ladson and Young that you couldn't really identify by name, but they all bring something to the table. The forward line is obviously the greatest strength for the Hawks. The huge 1-2 duo of Franklin and Roughhead, and then the best 3-4 combo in the league of Williams and Rioli.

What's holding back the Hawks? Firstly, youth. This team doesn't have enough experience to realistically expect to win a premiership - yet. They don't have the self-belief to win tough matches. They imploded on field against the Kangaroos in last year's final, and have shown an inability to win hard grind it out games. They struggle against tough, four-quarter teams like Sydney, North, and Adelaide (yes I realise that Hawthorn have won their last three encounters with Adelaide, but given the vast disparity in talent the fact that the margin in two of the three matches combined has been seven points is not flattering for the Hawks). Come September I suspect the Hawks will be exposed. Talent and flare can't replace hard work and self-belief.

That said I don't have that much faith in the Bulldogs either. Yes I know they can run the ball really well, and that they've got a gun midfield. Let's talk about that gun midfield. Cooney, Griffin, Ray is hands down the most exciting young midfield in the comp. They really symbolise the Dogs, fast, determined and with a lot of swagger. The midfield is exciting, but people don't talk enough about the stellar Bulldogs defense. A gaping weakness last year, with Brian Lake holding up the store, the Dogs defense has been one of the most improved units of the season. The forward line is arguably the Dogs' greatest strength and its greatest weakness. The Dogs have a number of guys, Johnson, Murphy, Giansiricusa, that can create something out of nothing. It's the experienced answer to Davis, Didak, Medhurst, Thomas.

The fact is though, that even in this day and age, it's still too difficult to win a premiership without a semblance of a tall forward. Kangaroos - Carey, Essendon - Lloyd, Brisbane - Lynch + Brown, Port Adelaide - Tredrea in his prime, Sydney - Hall, O'Loughlin, West Coast - Lynch + Hunter, Geelong - Mooney. All those teams had quality key forwards. The exception is West Coast, but their midfield was so good that the feed into the forward so numerous that they scored enough goals to win match ups. The Eagles won a flag not through quality of the receivers, but by quantity of the delivery. The Dogs midfield isn't at that level.

The fact is that right now the Hawks and Dogs just don't seem to have enough to topple the Cats - and honestly neither team seems all that close. The Dogs had a huge chance to get one up on the Cats last weekend in the absence of Ablett and Ling but failed. In September Geelong will be even more formidable. It's hard to know exactly where the Hawks are at right now, especially after the loss to the Saints this weekend, but given their list, system and potential they are a more dangerous threat to the Cats. So who does the fourth spot in the four belong to? Let's break it down.

We can immediately eliminate Essendon, Carlton and Richmond. Each team will only get better but contention, and finals are just about out of the question. Adelaide have been too heavily hit by injuries and I suspect they'll be the unlucky team to miss out on the eight. Brisbane are too inconsistent to claim to be a contender, and the Roos play hard but they're simply not good enough. That leaves us with the Swans, Pies and Saints to choose from. I know that the Swans are always 'around', but you'd have to think that the Swans capacity to contend for another premiership is limited. They've found themselves on the wrong side of the scoreline against all of Geelong, Hawthorn, the Dogs and Collingwood. They're not going to win the flag.

Who out of Collingwood and St. Kilda is more likely to play off in a Grand Final? As much as I hate to say it, it may very well be the Saints. Now by no means am I giving up on Collingwood. I strongly believe Collingwood will be a team no one wants to play in finals, given their tackling and pressuring ability. The reason the Pies aren't a top four team this year is they same reason they weren't last year (at least after the home and away season) - they lose too often to bad teams. Last year the Pies lost to the two bottom teams Melbourne and Richmond, lost by 93 points to Brisbane who didn't even make the finals, and struggled in all four matches against Essendon and Carlton (despite going 4-0, yes I do like to bring this up). The defining thing for me about Collingwood's 2007 regular season is that they lost badly at home to Brisbane and Adelaide, yet beat each comfortably on the road. Same thing goes this year. We've beaten Geelong (BY 86 FREAKIN POINTS!), Sydney, St. Kilda and Adelaide, yet lost four times to Carlton and the Kangaroos. Against those two teams Collingwood should expect to go 3-1. That's the expectation. Had that been the case they'd be in strong contention for second spot, instead they're going to have to grind it out for fifth.

It's hard to believe but these facts present Collingwood's strongest argument for success in finals. Last year Collingwood turned around mediocre form and switched it on in the finals. This is a unit built for finals, with the tackling, pressure and the general 'teamness' of the club. Why don't I think Collingwood will be strong contenders for the flag? Two reasons. One, the Pies struggle badly against Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. The Dogs are simply too fast for the Pies in the midfield. That's why they've handled Collingwood in their past three encounters. On the other hand Hawthorn's forwards are simply too tall, too strong and too good for Collingwood's inexperienced backline. Roughhead and Franklin combined for like 11 goals against Collingwood earlier this year. What's to stop them from doing that again? The other reason is that basically Collingwood were a better team last year.

It's hard to believe such a young 'up and coming' team can regress, but it has. The losses of Buckley and Clement have been huge, especially in the case of the latter. Presti's injury has left a void of experience in defense. The young guns improving? Travis Cloke has regressed in a big way, Thomas and Pendlebury have merely held steady, and Tyson Goldsack's form was so poor he got dropped. Veterans who were superb last year have regressed understandably. Scott Burns has tackled the captaincy admirably, but his age is showing. Tarkyn Lockeyer has been nowhere near the terrific player he was last year. Heath Shaw has taken a step back from 'star' to 'solid player'. Josh Fraser has been non-existent, and Nick Maxwell is proving that he may very well be overrated. The only real improvements from last year have come from Paul Medhurst (need I say more), Harry O'Brien (rock solid), Sharrod Wellingham (a fantastic player, trust me), Nathan Brown (good raw talent, should develop) and Chris Bryan (thriving on increased playing time). For me the shining hope for this season was Cam Wood, and honestly he's been a bust so far. It's Guy Richards all over again. This Collingwood team has a surplus of young talent, and the capacity to be a finals team for years to come but barring the pick-up of Ben Cousins, Daniel Kerr, Jonathan Brown or another established gun I can't see them winning the flag.

St. Kilda on the other hand I can. This is bizarre, because I'm basically this entire analysis on one and a half quarters from Saturday night. But the thing is, for four years the Saints have been so hyped, and Saturday night in the third quarter against the Hawks they finally got it all together. The football Collingwood played against Geelong this year was phenomenal. It was intense, and amazing. But that seemed all about determination and heart. They were like the scrappy ferocious boxer that refused to lose. St. Kilda in the third term against the Hawks were a perfectly oiled machine. Winning the taps, Dal Santo and Hayes dominating the midfield, Riewoldt sublime in attack. They were a machine. They were Ali.

Could that quarter be the turning point not only for the season, but for the history of the club? Perhaps, but with the Saints you can never be sure. For four years the Saints have always had the list to win the premiership, but on Saturday night they showed the heart to compliment it. The thing is though, that the Saints have six infinitely winnable games ahead and could quite conceivably win them all and finish fourth. Given the draw the Saints are a lock to make the finals, even if they revert to their old lifeless ways. Nick Riewoldt seems recovered and never looked better than Saturday night. Nick Dal Santo is a class act, and completely dominated that match. Lenny Hayes is the most underrated player in the league. He's an admirable competitor, an absolute gun, the heart and soul of his team and one of the 30 best players in the league. Max Hudghton cops way too much flack, he's still capable of holding down a defense. Sam Fisher and Jason Gram are stars, and provide run off the back flank. Brendon Goddard is steady as she goes. Leigh Montagna, the Clarkes, King, Blake (amazing third term) and Schneider all contribute. Justin Koschitzke when healthy (as he is now) is arguably the best aerial mark in the competition, and an elite player. Robert Harvey still has something to give, and no one can question his heart. Luke Ball is vastly improved and has fixed up his kicking woes somewhat. And guys like Armitage, Geary and Clinton Jones give this team youth and flare. They can win it all, and come September should be feared. Because you never know when they're going to rip out a third term like Saturday night's.