Burning questions

I thought the last day of the home and away season might be a fitting date to discuss some of the burning questions in football. Without further ado;

10. Palmer or Cotchin? This year's rising star.
Much like the Pendlebury vs. Selwood debate last year, both players are unreal talents, but the argument is moot as their is only one real winner. Cyril Rioli is a brilliant player. He uses the ball to perfection, and has that aura about him that whenever he gets the ball he's going to do something brilliant with it. That quality in a player is extremely rare. But ultimately when you average less than 14 disposals a game you aren't the NAB rising star. Rhys Palmer is. Palmer's season has been unreal, just watch his performance against Collingwood on Friday night. He's 19 years old and has already developed the knowledge of how to dominate games. He doesn't so much read the play as he makes the play work for him. He runs tirelessly, and has excellent pace. He's also a fantastic mark, and courage isn't by any means a shortcoming. He puts his body on the line. He's Dale Thomas meets a younger Ben Cousins. His disposal is his much publicised shortcoming, and for good reason. It needs to improve. On his preferred left he's fine, but his right foot is shocking. Genuinely shocking. Once he fixes this up though, the sky truly is the limit. Because right now he's the best young talent in the game.

9. Where will Josh Carr be next year?
It seemed like Carr was almost a lock for a trade to Port Adelaide next year, but Mark Williams' comments last night (saying that Carr is too old for Port) added some doubt and spice to the conversation. Carr is 28 and you would suspect he was 2-3 years of genuine usefulness left in him. Carr's longevity should be very good. He's played 18+ games in every year since 2001. His game doesn't depend on speed, it relies on reading the play and hardness at the contest. He's still a quality player and would slot into any contending team nicely. The only question for Port is his age. No rebuilding team should be looking to trade for quality 28 year olds. Mark Williams seems to think that Port is in a rebuilding stage but the facts beg to differ. This team will contend next year. People seem to forget that the Power played in a grand final last year. That list is largely unchanged. This team won just 7 games this year, but in reality they should have won a few more. Port finished 1-7 in games decided by 2 goals or less. They lost two games at home when leading by 5+ goals at three quarter time. This team has all the talent, they need the mental stability and leadership to close out matches. Josh Carr provides that. The Power have the youth and they have the veteran core to contend, Josh Carr will only add to that. I suspect Mark Williams appreciates this, and Carr will find himself back in Power colours next year. A second round draft pick should get it done, and I think it would be worth it.

8. Is Jeff Farmer's career over?

No. He's too talented. On his day, as he re-asserted this weekend, he's still one of the elite small forwards in the game. His problem is obviously motivation and discipline. When motivated, as he was on Friday playing for a new contract, he plays well. He needs to be in an environment where his every action is scrutinised. This will keep him in line. Fremantle is not this location. His trade value hovers around zero, and for a team on the rebuild (albeit what should be a quick rebuild) Farmer has no place. He'll be delisted but I'd expect a team to take a punt on him in the preseason draft. He'd be a perfect fit at Brisbane. Should Jonathan Brown stay (more on this later) he'd perfectly compliment him and Bradshaw. The veteran leadership of Simon Black, Luke Power and Brown would be sure to keep him closer in line as well.

7. Will delisted players find new homes?

This season has seen a lot of players publicly delisted before the season has finished. It must be depressing for guys like Jeff White, Adam Yze and Damien Peverill to know that their team no longer values them, midway through the season. Adam Yze is undeniably done. No team will go near him, he's about three years past being borderline useful. Damien Peverill is young enough that a team will probably pick him with either a very late pick in the draft or in the pre-season draft. Jeff White is the interesting one. I heard a commentator today saying that he didn't think Jeff White would be able to find a home next year. I find this too hard to believe. I struggle to find a single team in the league that wouldn't benefit from having Jeff White on their team. It was just last year that Jeff White was the 3rd best ruckman (hitouts per game) in the league. He's still a fantastic ruckman, and his brilliant athleticism means he'd still be effective as a forward. He fits with any team as either a #2 ruckman and part-time forward, and on teams like Collingwood and Carlton he'd be the #1 ruckman. He would work as either a ruckman for a contending team, or a stop-gap on a developing team until youth developed.

6. Is Scott West's career over?

Unfortunately you'd have to say yes. The Bulldogs play at an absolutely breakneck speed and West can't keep up. His body seems to be shot, and the Bulldogs seem to have pieced together a decent enough season without him. Football's a cruel game and Scott West will be its latest victim. A legend of the Western Bulldogs and a champion footballer, Scott West has played his last game.

5. Ablett, Harvey or Bartel?

The Brownlow medal really is impossible to judge. There have been so many years when a favourite has been considered a 'lock' to win, only to fall well short. Anthony Koutoufides was a lock to win in 2000, only for Shane Woewodin to come from nowhere and take the award. Luke Darcy was considered an easy favourite for 2002, only for Simon Black to take the honours. Likewise last year for Gary Ablett, with teammate Jimmy Bartel stealing the award. The amount of votes to win varies as well. In 2004 Chris Judd needed 30 votes to win, the next year teammate Ben Cousins only needed 20. A lot of things are required to win the medal, luck is one of them. Umpires tend to go for fair and honest players that win plenty of the ball and obviously play in the midfield. They tend to value consistency and hardness over explosiveness. This is the reason players like Sam Mitchell and Simon Black poll well and Gary Ablett and Anthony Koutoufides generally do not. The notion that players in good teams have teammates stealing votes and therefore can't win is false. The logic is right, the evidence is not. Jason Akermanis, Simon Black, Chris Judd, Ben Cousins and James Bartel have all managed to win Brownlow's in star-studded teams. Who is my pick for this year's Brownlow? I'm going to go with a dark horse and pick Simon Black. He always polls well and he had a terrific season. He's a champion and a second Brownlow would be thoroughly deserved.

4. Where will Alan Didak and the Shaw brothers be next year?

Heath Shaw will be a magpie next year and for years beyond, there's little doubt of that. His brother Rhyce is less of a sure bet. Rhyce is just about the quickest guy on Collingwood's list, and on top of that he runs hard as well. His disposal is generally very good as well. I'd prefer to keep him, but if the Pies can get a 2nd round pick for him I wouldn't be unhappy if they pulled the trigger. Didak is obviously the big one. With the miraculous improvements of Medhurst and Davis, as well as the continued development of Dale Thomas, Didak is something at Collingwood he's never been before - expendable. If the Woods were to trade him it would more than likely be to an Adelaide team. With Motlop and Ebert already there, Didak doesn't really fit in. But he's a quality player and quality players find ways to fit in. Port will have the #5 pick in the draft, and Collingwood would be foolish not to trade Dids for that pick. My gut feeling is that he leaves.

3. Will Daniel Kerr be at a Victorian club next year?

No. The Eagles are still wounded by how little they let Chris Judd go for last year, and they will demand too much for Daniel Kerr. 'Two draft picks in the top ten' is what they're asking for, and they aren't going to get it. Given Kerr's injury and suspension history he isn't worth that much anyway. There's a good chance that Kerr will leave next year, possibly for nothing, so the Eagles need to trade him now while they have some leverage. The teams allegedly interested in Kerr are (with expected first round draft picks in parentheses) Carlton (#6), Essendon (#5), Hawthorn (#15), Sydney (#11), Richmond (#8) and Collingwood (#9).

Carlton simply don't need Kerr. With Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Carrazo and Scotland the Blues midfield is set for years. They have more pressing needs, namely a ruckman, more defence, and a forward to compliment Fev. Hawthorn is just not going to happen. If you believe the Eagles are serious about two draft picks in the top ten, then Hawthorn would have to swing two trades just to get the draft picks required. With a midfield of Mitchell, Hodge, Sewell, Lewis, Ladson, Bateman, Crawford, and more, the Hawks like the Blues have more pressing needs. Richmond are a chance, Kerr could be what pushes them to the next level. A Foley, Cotchin, Kerr midfield would be scary. What would it take to get it done though? The Tigers could probably offer something like #8, #26, Mark Coughlan and Richard Tambling, although I doubt West Coast would bite. The Tigers aren't getting Kerr without breaking up the youthful core.

Sydney are interesting, as they'd seemingly be a good fit for Kerr. They obviously have the reputation as being good with tradees, and a trade for Kerr would invigorate a) a team seemingly on the slide, and b) a supporter base that needs invigoration. I just can't see the Swans getting a deal done though, considering their ageing list. #11, Kieran Jack and Jarred Moore might get it done, but it would be to the detriment of the Swans. Collingwood desperately need a game-breaking midfielder, and Kerr is that kind of player. The Pies can afford him too. How would they get it done. Would Port Adelaide trade pick #4 for Alan Didak? If they would then the Pies could offer #4, #9 and say Ben Reid for Kerr and maybe a third round pick. I don't see how either team could turn that down. The deal is obviously dependent on Port biting on Didak. These teams don't have a good relationship, so Collingwood might have to sweeten it by adding a second rounder to it. If that were the case Collingwood could get Kerr and #35 for Didak, Reid, #9 and #27. Considering Didak's indiscretions that's not a bad deal.

The favourite though has to be Essendon I think. The Dons own the #5 pick which already gives them leverage over Collingwood and Richmond. The Dons could trade #5, Andrew Lovett (on the way out anyway) and one of Reimers, Jetta, Dyson and Monfries is a very solid deal.

2. Will Jonathan Brown stay with Brisbane?

I'm beginning to lean towards no. Given how long it has taken for him to not make a decision, and seeing how he's played over the past month, he's looked like a player that wants out. Add to this the disappointing results from Brisbane and the impending coaching dilemmas, Brown might be better served leaving. The favourite as we stand is Collingwood, because of our deep pockets. The worst thing Collingwood could do for now, and for the future, is to get Jonathan Brown. The Pies forward line is set - Cloke, Rusling, Dawes, Reid, Rocca, Thomas, Didak, Medhurst, Davis, Anthony - it needs no adding to. The problems with the Pies lie with the lack of experience in defence, lack of explosiveness and game-breaking play in the midfield, and lack of A RUCKMAN. Jonathan Brown, with his body on the decline and his reckless/heroic style of play, is not the answer. I suspect he will move, but hopefully it's not to the Pies.

1. Ben Cousins

The biggest question in the AFL is Ben Cousins. Will he play next year? If so, who for? And how will he get there?

If he does play, Collingwood, as they are with Jonathan Brown, are the favourites. They desperately need a leader and a gun midfielder, and Cousins is both of those. He'll be cheap too. If they have the opportunity Collingwood have to take Cousins. The problem is that he may or may not reach them. All other teams have the power to grab him in the draft, and there are presently 8 teams in front of the Pies. Whatever happens, Ben Cousins will be dominating headlines until and through the start of next year.