The fourth consecutive bizarre week in the NFL. Upsets all round and the confusion in the AFC playoff picture has now been matched by the NFC. What do we make of losses to Dallas and Denver, and the mediocre performances of San Diego, Buffalo and Jacksonville? Are Washington the real deal? Plenty of questions, all of which are answered below.
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (4-0, LW: 1)
The class of the AFC. Four games in and they haven't really been tested yet. Hands down the best defense in the league, and the offense is capable enough to get by. 30+ points the last two weeks shows that they aren't a slouch on offense. The running game is still going smoothly, and Kerry Collins has been competent. It's a bit depressing to think how good they would be if Vince Young had lived up to his potential. This team can run away with the AFC South.
2. Buffalo Bills (4-0, LW: 2)
The second shaky performance in a row, but this tough is only going to help them later on in the year. They're coming up big under pressure and Trent Edwards is showing he can perform on fourth quarter drives. The defense is stellar and they did will to escape a potential danger game with a victory.
3. San Diego Chargers (2-2, LW: 3)
Not thrilled with this pick, considering the 15-0 halftime deficit in lowly Oakland, but looking at the competition I don't know who else belongs here. At the very least you can't question the team's spirit. In their two losses and the game against Oakland they came out after halftime, came from behind and played spirited football. The next test is playing four quarters of good football.
4. New England Patriots (2-1, LW: 6)
Almost every team in the AFC got worse this weekend, so doing nothing moves you up in my eyes. No matter how good a certain player is, even if he's Tom Brady, I don't believe all of a sudden you can go from 16-0 to a mediocre team. If the Patriots can incorporate Randy Moss into the offense they should be fine given the strength of their shockingly easy schedule.
5. Denver Broncos (3-1, LW: 4)
Could easily be, and probably should be, 1-3. The offense might be amazing but when the defense gives up that many yards a game it's a difficult flaw to cover up. They aren't really a contender but they should still make the playoffs. Why? After the bye week they have a stretch where they go Miami, @Cleveland, @Atlanta, Oakland, @Jets, Kansas City. They should go at least 5-1 in that stretch.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, LW: 5)
Dodged a bullet today. Huge win over the Ravens to gain control of the AFC North. The Ravens had that game but the Steelers came from nowhere. Pittsburgh is too banged up and too weak on the offensive line to be considered true contenders, but given the weak division they play in they'll be in the playoffs. The schedule the AFC North drew is horrible for them, so 9-7 will more likely than not win you the division.
On the outside looking in:
Jacksonville (2-2, LW: -)
I don't know how you can like any team that is two field goal kicks from being 0-4. The run game isn't the same as it was last year, and David Garrard (despite the strong performance yesterday) is looking shaky. Will probably be in a battle for the Wild Card.
Indianapolis (1-2, LW: -)
This AFC is so wide open it wouldn't shock me if Indy suddenly got its act together and came from nowhere to take the championship. But considering their porous run defense and the health concerns on offense, it's hard to like them right now. The schedule is brutal as well. Already 1-2, the Colts have to play Tennessee twice, New England, and away to Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Diego. Even games they have like away to Houston next week are no gimme.
Baltimore (2-1, LW: -)
Season might have ended today. Win that game against Pittsburgh and the Ravens are 3-0, 2 games clear of the Steelers and in control of the division. The defense looks good and the offense at the very least does a capable job of moving forward. Joe Flacco doesn't inspire that much confidence though, missing a wide open Ray Rice in the second quarter on that play was called back was shocking. The next two weeks (home to Tennessee, at Indy) will go a long way to establishing their season. A split their and the division is not out of the question.
NY Jets (2-2, LW: -)
Still don't buy it. I think the Arizona game was their abberation game, where simply everything went right on offense. The defense is swiss cheese (84 points conceded the past two weeks) and Favre is never going to play like that again.
NFC
1. NY Giants (3-0, LW: 3)
Has to be doesn't it? The Eagles and Cowboys failed to impress so until proven otherwise the Giants are the class of the NFC. The Plaxico situation raises a few concerns, but with Seattle, Cleveland and San Fran coming in the next few weeks they'll have a while to sort it out.
2. Dallas Cowboys (3-1, LW: 1)
Washington game raises some concerns. You still have to question their chemistry and intelligence on offense. The loss was no fluke, they were genuinely outplayed by the Redskins.
3. Carolina Panthers (3-1, LW: 4)
I like the look of this Panthers team. The Panthers are solid on D, and the offense looks great. The running back tandem is solid, Jake Delhomme looks good and Steve Smith is definitely back. My pick to win the South.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, LW: 2)
Don't put too much weight on the loss to Chicago. Away in a tough environment without their best player, and they were literally two inches from winning the match. How strange was Desean Jackson on Sunday, has a wide receiver ever had so much positive and negative impact on a game? Scores a touchdown and gets two huge runs, but a) fumbles a punt that is recovered by the bears, b) misjudges a punt which leads to the Eagles being pinned inside their own 5, and c) run a route wrong, which led to an interception. Amazing.
5. Chicago (2-2, LW: -)
Got to love the heart this team showed against the Eagles. That goal line stand could be the launching point of a playoff season. The defense is as good as any, the special teams probably the best in the league, but you have to worry about the offense. Lets not kid ourselves, Kyle Orton is dreadful. The amazing thing is that it may not matter. With that defense and Devon Hester the offense is going to getting the ball around midfield time and time again. With the Packers banged up and the Vikes shaky you have to like the Bears in the North.
6. Seattle Seahawks (1-2, LW: -)
I'm over my 49ers love. With Branch and Engram coming back the Hawks will be in decent shape for the rest of the season. Despite the poor start to the year Seattle is still tied for the division lead in the loss column. 7-9 will win this division, I kid you not.
On the outside looking in:
Washington (3-1, LW: -)
Not buying it. As good as they were against Dallas I think that was just a case of everything going right for the Skins, and catching Dallas on a bad day. The fact that they've outscored their opponents by just 5 points on the season means something.
Green Bay (2-2, LW: 4)
Past two weeks raise some concern. The loss of key players on defense hurts and with Ryan Grant and now Rodgers banged up things don't look good. The season may hinge on Ryan Grant's ability to match last year's form.
New Orleans (2-2, LW: -)
Drew Brees is carrying this team more than any other individual is carrying a team in the NFL. Not sure where I stand on the Saints. Defense is terrible and receiving corps banged up, but they're one big Redskins play and the boot of Martin Gramatica away from being 4-0. Keep an eye on them.
Tampa Bay (3-1, LW: -)
I don't know about them. Solid team that seemingly gets it done. Virtually no shot at that Super Bowl, but they might get into the playoffs. Unlike last year I don't think 9-7 wins the South, Carolina is too good.
San Francisco (2-2, LW: 6)
Scoring one touchdown against the terrible New Orleans defense is a concern.
Super Bowl pick: After the Dallas loss I think now it has to be Tennessee. The defense is phenomenal, the offense gets it done and most importantly the team seems locked in and focused. That's a pretty good mix.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
The obligatory awards
2008 AFL MVP
Gary Ablett, Geelong
Changed the way the game is played. Ablett forced coaches into conceding defeat and focusing on limiting Ablett's dominance instead of stopping it. It became simply a matter of how much Ablett was going to dominate matches, not whether or not it was going to happen. 29 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, a goal and a goal assist is usually going get you three votes. They werre Ablett's averages for the season. His 39 disposal, 2 goal, 3 goal assist, 5 tackles and 12 inside 50 turn against North Melbourne in Round 11 was the best individual performance of the year by far. Only enhanced his reputation in finals, best for his team in the Grand Final. The best player in the league right now, and I don't think that can be debated.
Runners-up (in order): Lance Franklin, Brent Harvey, Simon Black, Nick Riewoldt, Chris Judd, Adam Cooney, James Bartel, Matthew Richardson, Adam Goodes.
LVP (Least Valuable Player)
Chad Fletcher, West Coast
Soon to be renamed the Chad Fletcher award for ineptitude. When choosing the least valuable player in the league you don't look for simply bad players. Someone like Sam Iles (yeah, who?) might not be very good at football, but he doesn't hurt the team. I'm looking at players that when you see lining up for the opposition you smile. Chad Fletcher is one of these such players. More often than not Fletcher makes a) bad decisions with the ball, and b) disposes of it poorly. The beauty of Fletcher is that he finds the ball with ease, and racks up disposals at a rate that places him among the league leaders on a yearly basis. So basically the player who is arguably worst at disposing of the ball is getting the opportunity to do so on a frequent rate. Maybe West Coast should simply dispose of him.
Runners-up: Warren Tredrea, Nathan Thompson, Tom Hawkins
Rising star
Rhys Palmer, Fremantle
The most exciting young talent in the league. This guy is great to watch. His endurance and hard running is unreal. He reads the play, finds the ball, has no shortage of courage, and his marking ability is insane. Just needs to improve his disposal, especially on his opposite. If he gets that stuff together he'll be the complete package.
Runners-up: Cyril Rioli, Trent Cotchin, Garrick Ibbotson
Top 10 matches of the season
10. Round 11 Carlton 75 def. Port Adelaide 63 (AAMI Stadium)
Just one of Carlton's extraordinary come from behind victories, and one of Port Adelaide's stunning chokes. Down by 38 points late in the third term Carlton came home with a seven goal to none final term. Matthew Kreuzer was the star with three last quarter goals, and the Blues hit the front for the first time all day 32 minutes into the last quarter.
9. Round 16 St. Kilda 119 def. Hawthorn 89 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of common beliefs about the season only one match changed perception of the season more than this one. Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo (plus some Blake magic) swung the game in St. Kilda's favour in the second half. 12 goals to 3 in the second half rallied the Saints from 34 points down, and went a long way to establishing St. Kilda's top four hopes.
8. Round 12 Hawthorn 76 def. Adelaide 72 (AAMI Stadium)
Just a fantastic contest all night long. On a Saturday night in Adelaide we got one of the best, and most intense battles of the season. With Nathan Bock controlling Lance Franklin the Crows stayed in the match all night long. Luke Hodge's calmly composed goal to win the match deep into the fourth quarter was probably the goal of the year.
7. Round 2 Adelaide 85 def. Port Adelaide 79 (AAMI Stadium)
It's great watching a physical struggle between two teams that genuinely hate each other. The most physical and violent game of the year, and one of the best showdowns ever. Down to 18 fit men the Crows held off the Power dropping their foes to 0-3 on the season.
6. Round 1 Western Bulldogs 126 def. Adelaide 123 (Telstra Dome)
Incredible match, felt more like a fairytale than a game of football. In Brad Johnson's 300th match he kicked the final two goals to seemingly win the match. He wouldn't have the last word though, Nathan Bock had an opportunity to win the match after the siren but missed.
5. Round 11 Geelong 127 def. Kangaroos 114 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of match quality this was probably the best match of the season. The Kangaroos tested the Cats all night long in a free flowing attacking game. Gary Ablett and his Cats would have the last laugh though recording a well earned win at the Dome.
4. Round 1 Richmond 109 def. Carlton 79 (MCG)
The first match of the season was one of the best. The atmosphere at the 'G between two huge rivals was fantastic. And Chris Judd's debut was the most awaited event in the offseason, and he didn't disappoint. Matthew Richardson and Richmond prevailed though.
3. Round 17 Geelong 88 def. Hawthorn 77 (MCG)
The much hyped match was the one everyone was looking forward to all season. It didn't disappoint. The game was close all day and was a great prelude to the eventual Grand Final. Only an unusually erratic Luke Hodge prevented Hawthorn from victory.
2. Round 9 Collingwood 134 def. Geelong 48 (MCG)
Probably the most amazing result of the past ten years. If you'd told me Collingwood would beat Geelong I would have been surprised. But by 86 points? Do we even have a result to compare to this? It was an extraordinary couple of hours, it felt more like a dream than a match of football. Collingwood's tackling and pressure was the best football has ever seen in the best performance by a single team all season.
1. Round 22 Hawthorn 159 def. Carlton 81 (Telstra Dome)
More so an event than a game of football. The chase for 100 goals was probably the most fun event of the football season. It was fantastic to see the fans maul the ground. But things got really exciting in the second half when Fevola started getting close and the Blues were looking for him every single time. It was a refreshing experience, and a great game to watch.
Gary Ablett, Geelong
Changed the way the game is played. Ablett forced coaches into conceding defeat and focusing on limiting Ablett's dominance instead of stopping it. It became simply a matter of how much Ablett was going to dominate matches, not whether or not it was going to happen. 29 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, a goal and a goal assist is usually going get you three votes. They werre Ablett's averages for the season. His 39 disposal, 2 goal, 3 goal assist, 5 tackles and 12 inside 50 turn against North Melbourne in Round 11 was the best individual performance of the year by far. Only enhanced his reputation in finals, best for his team in the Grand Final. The best player in the league right now, and I don't think that can be debated.
Runners-up (in order): Lance Franklin, Brent Harvey, Simon Black, Nick Riewoldt, Chris Judd, Adam Cooney, James Bartel, Matthew Richardson, Adam Goodes.
LVP (Least Valuable Player)
Chad Fletcher, West Coast
Soon to be renamed the Chad Fletcher award for ineptitude. When choosing the least valuable player in the league you don't look for simply bad players. Someone like Sam Iles (yeah, who?) might not be very good at football, but he doesn't hurt the team. I'm looking at players that when you see lining up for the opposition you smile. Chad Fletcher is one of these such players. More often than not Fletcher makes a) bad decisions with the ball, and b) disposes of it poorly. The beauty of Fletcher is that he finds the ball with ease, and racks up disposals at a rate that places him among the league leaders on a yearly basis. So basically the player who is arguably worst at disposing of the ball is getting the opportunity to do so on a frequent rate. Maybe West Coast should simply dispose of him.
Runners-up: Warren Tredrea, Nathan Thompson, Tom Hawkins
Rising star
Rhys Palmer, Fremantle
The most exciting young talent in the league. This guy is great to watch. His endurance and hard running is unreal. He reads the play, finds the ball, has no shortage of courage, and his marking ability is insane. Just needs to improve his disposal, especially on his opposite. If he gets that stuff together he'll be the complete package.
Runners-up: Cyril Rioli, Trent Cotchin, Garrick Ibbotson
Top 10 matches of the season
10. Round 11 Carlton 75 def. Port Adelaide 63 (AAMI Stadium)
Just one of Carlton's extraordinary come from behind victories, and one of Port Adelaide's stunning chokes. Down by 38 points late in the third term Carlton came home with a seven goal to none final term. Matthew Kreuzer was the star with three last quarter goals, and the Blues hit the front for the first time all day 32 minutes into the last quarter.
9. Round 16 St. Kilda 119 def. Hawthorn 89 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of common beliefs about the season only one match changed perception of the season more than this one. Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo (plus some Blake magic) swung the game in St. Kilda's favour in the second half. 12 goals to 3 in the second half rallied the Saints from 34 points down, and went a long way to establishing St. Kilda's top four hopes.
8. Round 12 Hawthorn 76 def. Adelaide 72 (AAMI Stadium)
Just a fantastic contest all night long. On a Saturday night in Adelaide we got one of the best, and most intense battles of the season. With Nathan Bock controlling Lance Franklin the Crows stayed in the match all night long. Luke Hodge's calmly composed goal to win the match deep into the fourth quarter was probably the goal of the year.
7. Round 2 Adelaide 85 def. Port Adelaide 79 (AAMI Stadium)
It's great watching a physical struggle between two teams that genuinely hate each other. The most physical and violent game of the year, and one of the best showdowns ever. Down to 18 fit men the Crows held off the Power dropping their foes to 0-3 on the season.
6. Round 1 Western Bulldogs 126 def. Adelaide 123 (Telstra Dome)
Incredible match, felt more like a fairytale than a game of football. In Brad Johnson's 300th match he kicked the final two goals to seemingly win the match. He wouldn't have the last word though, Nathan Bock had an opportunity to win the match after the siren but missed.
5. Round 11 Geelong 127 def. Kangaroos 114 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of match quality this was probably the best match of the season. The Kangaroos tested the Cats all night long in a free flowing attacking game. Gary Ablett and his Cats would have the last laugh though recording a well earned win at the Dome.
4. Round 1 Richmond 109 def. Carlton 79 (MCG)
The first match of the season was one of the best. The atmosphere at the 'G between two huge rivals was fantastic. And Chris Judd's debut was the most awaited event in the offseason, and he didn't disappoint. Matthew Richardson and Richmond prevailed though.
3. Round 17 Geelong 88 def. Hawthorn 77 (MCG)
The much hyped match was the one everyone was looking forward to all season. It didn't disappoint. The game was close all day and was a great prelude to the eventual Grand Final. Only an unusually erratic Luke Hodge prevented Hawthorn from victory.
2. Round 9 Collingwood 134 def. Geelong 48 (MCG)
Probably the most amazing result of the past ten years. If you'd told me Collingwood would beat Geelong I would have been surprised. But by 86 points? Do we even have a result to compare to this? It was an extraordinary couple of hours, it felt more like a dream than a match of football. Collingwood's tackling and pressure was the best football has ever seen in the best performance by a single team all season.
1. Round 22 Hawthorn 159 def. Carlton 81 (Telstra Dome)
More so an event than a game of football. The chase for 100 goals was probably the most fun event of the football season. It was fantastic to see the fans maul the ground. But things got really exciting in the second half when Fevola started getting close and the Blues were looking for him every single time. It was a refreshing experience, and a great game to watch.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Season 2008
The day after the Grand Final seems as good a day as any to review the 2008 AFL season. First though, a note on yesterday's post. I think I may have been a little harsh in criticising the quality of yesterday's Grand Final. It might not have been a classic for the ages, but it was still a pretty good Grand Final - one of the better ones, at the very least. For me the Hawthorn-Geelong clash ranks above the 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007 Grand Finals, below the 2002, 2005 and 2006 matches, and on level terms with the 2001 Brisbane-Essendon clash (a similar match in fact). Anyway, here are my feelings on the 2008 season...
1. Hawthorn (20-5)
2008: Obviously a magnificent season for the Premiers. Perhaps the mark of a great team is not only its ability to win matches, but to genuinely affect the way the game is played. With their zone defense, which suffocated opponents into submission, the Hawks did just that. Their revolutionary zone was able to mask a few defensive deficiencies, the midfield led by skipper Sam Mitchell, consistent and underrated Brad Sewell, hard-nuts Jordan Lewis and Chance Bateman, and the still useful Shane Crawford was terrific all year. The forward line was the story though, with the mercurial Lance Franklin dominant all season, and well backed by the capable Jarryd Roughead and Mark Williams. Lost a few matches that they shouldn't have (Richmond, Kangaroos, St. Kilda) but come finals that didn't matter. The Hawks made the Dogs and Saints look very bad, and then did the same to the Cats. A brilliant season. Grade: A
Greatest strength: Zone defense. The biggest tactical story of the year. The way the Hawks employed this all season made it virtually impossible to advance the ball forward out of your backline. The way the Hawks suffocated the Bulldogs in the qualifying final with the zone was extraordinary.
Area that needs to be addressed: The Ruck. Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf is probably the weakest premiership ruck tandem for... ever?
MVP: Lance Franklin. I was tempted to go with the inspirational Luke Hodge, but Buddy is the Hawks most important player. His ability to win matches off his own boot is second to none. Showed something in the Grand Final too, despite being beaten on the day he still was able to produce two crucial goals. They say the mark of a great player is being able to get it done even when you're not at your best. That's exactly what Buddy did yesterday. The most exciting player in the league.
Outlook: Is there any reason to believe the Hawks won't be even better next year? That's the scary thing, this team is so young. The potential loss of Crawford won't hurt too much, the Hawks have the depth to cover the veteran. The most frightening prospect for opposition teams is that Lance Franklin is only going to get better. Assuming they aren't decimated by injuries this team is a virtual lock for top 2 next year.
2. Geelong (23-2)
2008: Dominated all year but came up short when it mattered. The degree to which Geelong choked away the 2008 premiership can not be understated. With Hawthorn on the ropes midway through the final term the game was theirs for the taking. Instead Hawthorn reeled off three of four goals in a row. A great team would never let that happen. The Cats were again dominant in the home and away season, destroying opponents on a weekly basis. They did slip a few times though, the loss to Collingwood and close escapes against Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos. Rarely were they matched though. The defensive unit was rock solid, the forward line creative and the midfield the best in the league. The Bartel-Ablett-Corey-Selwood quartet was brilliant. It's hard to beat a team when they have 4 of the 15 players in the league all playing in the same part of the ground. It was all for nothing though, as the Cats came up short in September. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Joel Selwood would be the best midfielder at nine different clubs. At Geelong he's the fourth best. That says it all.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line. Cam Mooney choking in the Grand Final just highlighted how shallow the Cats forward line is. With Steve Johnson beginning to play further up the ground, the Cats rely too much on Cam Mooney. Tom Lonergan is an average player at best, so Cam Mooney is the only reliable tall target in the forward line. The midfield makes the forward line look a lot better. Much like Quentin Lynch never would have kicked 60 goals in a season without Judd, Cousins and Kerr, it's hard to see Matty Stokes and Lonergan kicking 38 and 36 goals respectively at any other club. If this club wants to take the next step into the truly elite it needs another key forward.
MVP: Cam Mooney and Matthew Scarlett might be more important structuarly, but Gary Ablett is still what makes this team tick. Incredibly Ablett improved on his amazing 2007 season. An extraordinary talent, Ablett's core strength and low centre of gravity make him virtually impossible to tackle. His performance in a losing Grand Final only enhanced his reputation as the #1 player in the league.
Outlook: No reason to think the Cats won't be back next year on the final Saturday of September. Ablett (25 next year), Bartel (25), Corey (27), Chapman (27), Ling (28), Johnson (26), Rooke (27) and Enright (28) will all still be in their primes next year. Joel Selwood will be 21 next year. Guys like Harley (31), Ottens (29), Scarlett (30), Mooney (30) and Milburn (32) are all getting on but should be able to contribute next year. Beyond that though things are less certain.
3. Western Bulldogs (16-1-8)
2008: A mixed season for the Dogs. One loss through 15 rounds was extraordinary. The Dogs were playing a free-flowing wonderfully attacking style of game. They were impossible to slow down. The Round 16 thumping at the hands of Geelong was a reality check though, and that sent the Dogs in a spiral where they finished the season with just three wins from their final ten matches. In the finals their fortunes were mixed. The Hawks embarassed them but they bounced back strong and took care of Sydney. They then pushed Geelong almost to the brink, but choked away the match with countless missed shots in the third term. On the whole you have to consider the season a success, but it's a hollow statement given where they were at Round 15 as opposed to where they finished. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Run. When this team runs and carries going forward into attack they look as good as any team in the league. Their ability to win matches largely depends on the ability to create run and dash. Quality teams like Hawthorn and Geelong don't allow for it.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line is still a problem. The Dogs don't have a single tall forward that can be relied on to deliver week in week out. Scott Welsh (43 goals) and Mitch Hahn (34 goals) are OK stop-gap solutions, but come September neither delivered. With Johnson, Akermanis, Murphy and Giansiracusa the Dogs have a surplus of small forwards, but unlike the Eagles of 05-06 and the Cats of present day the midfield isn't good enough to cover the flaws of the forward 50.
MVP: Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney. I'm not sure his credentials are Brownlow worthy, but Cooney is definitely the best and most important player on this team. He adds class, dash and opportunism to the Bulldog midfield.
Outlook: If the way the season ended is any indication this Bulldog team has a while to go yet. They aren't going to win a flag with this list, they still need a key forward and another gun midfielder. Unless they get those things they're going to be a perennial 3-6 team.
4. St. Kilda (14-11)
2008: A strange season for the Saints. The fact that they only won three more matches than they lost is kind of telling. St. Kilda were once again heavy on talent, but low on heart. Not even Robert Harvey's retirement could propel them to greater emotional heights. The Saints lucked their way into fourth position, with an easy draw and a number of things falling their way. They won the matches they should have, and lost all the ones they shouldn't have. Against the big three of Geelong, Hawthorn and the Dogs they finished a combined 1-5. Add in Collingwood and Sydney, the other teams in the top six and the Saints still have a terrible 3-8 mark. The inability to beat quality sides obviously hurt St. Kilda in September. They played the two elite teams in September and were thoroughly smashed in each match-up. They eked out a win against a Collingwood team which would have lost to Melbourne on that night. The shining light of the season was their shock win over Hawthorn in Round 16. For one half of football everything the Saints have promised for half a decade now, they delivered. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Talent. The Saints win matches because of their unreal list of individual talents. Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hayes, Dal Santo, Ball, Montagna, Fisher, Goddard, Maguire, Gram, the Clarke brothers. The sheer number of talented players on this team is astounding. Unfortunately the Saints play exactly like individuals, there's no cohesion or direction in the team. That's why they're on the outside looking in yet again.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed in the midfield. Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball are all quality players but none of them are going to win a 100m sprint. The Saints simply get run off their feet by too many teams.
MVP: Nick Riewoldt. Is any player more important to his team than Riewoldt is to the Saints? Without Riewoldt St. Kilda are probably a borderline bottom four team believe it or not. Saint Nick elevated the Saints to a higher level of play in the second half of the season almost singehandedly. His level of performance is largely indicative of his team's result. So not surprisingly Riewoldt played one brilliant final and two shockers, and the Saints won one final convincingly, and were thumped in the other two.
Outlook: It's hard to know what to expect from these Saints. They always promise so much yet fail to deliver. They tease their fans with the odd brilliant performance, only to come thudding back down to Earth soon after. Backing up the tremendous win over Hawthorn with a loss to lowly West Coast was not only indicative of the 2008 season, but of the club in general. The team is still relatively young. The core of Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Fisher, Gram, Goddard, Montagna and Ball is still under 27. But the problem with this team has never been talent, it's been heart. There are no signs this team is about to turn it around, so it's hard to see them getting any closer to a Grand Final than they were this year.
5. Sydney (13-1-10)
2008: You have to think that this was the last year of relevance for the Swans for maybe a while. Considering that the Swans finished the season on a 4-7 run doesn't inspire much confidence. What is more disturbing though is this - in the 2008 home and away season the Swans beat one finals team. That's quite extraordinary. In the regular season Sydney finished 1-9 against teams that finished in the top eight. And the lone win came against at home in poor conditions against a struggling St. Kilda side. Sydney have reached the stage where they can still take care of weak sides, but are unable to raise their game against the big dogs of the league. The Swans played in five matches this year that were decided by two kicks or less and won four of them. This team had no business playing a home final let alone making the finals. The team is old, worn out and in dire need of some youth. They played a terrific final against the lowly Kangaroos, but were completely handled the following week by the Bulldogs. The season is difficult to judge, as they did a) make the finals, and b) won a final. The team simply wasn't very good, but they played well enough when they had to. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Tackling. The Swans list isn't that talented these days, but talent isn't something you require for tackling. Led by inspirational hard nut Brett Kirk, the Swans led the lead in tackling, as they are accustomed to doing these days. They might not win as often as they used to, but the Swans make sure you earn victory physically.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed and youth. These things often come hand in hand. The conditions in the first final against the Roos masked Sydney's lack of speed, but they were exposed by the Dogs on the fresh MCG grass. Sydney simply can't keep up with teams.
MVP: Jarrad McVeigh was Sydney's best player this year, and may be for the next few years, but Adam Goodes is still far and away the most valuable. McVeigh is pushing for it, but Goodes is still the only special player on the Sydney team. He elevates them.
Outlook: Not good. The team is too old, and at best might be semi-relevant for one more year. Kieran Jack and Jarryd Moore are great young talents but beyond them the youth is thin. Maybe next year the Swans have a half chance at competing for the eight, but after that fans should prepare for a prolonged run in the cellars of the competition.
6. Collingwood (13-11)
2008: A strange season for the Pies. It's hard to know whether they overachieved or underachieved. I think they fall somewhere in between. They simply achieved. As has been the case for three years now, Collingwood shot themselves in the foot by failing to take care of lesser teams. Losses to Fremantle, Carlton (twice) and Essendon really killed the season. The 12-10 record didn't really represent where Collingwood stood in the competition. Collingwood didn't play in that many close matches, but the two matches they played in that went down to the wire (2 point loss to Brisbane, the Didak miss against the Kangaroos) they lost. Often a season is made by winning the matches that could go either way, this year Collingwood lost them and found themselves trying to win the flag from 8th spot. The stat that stands out about Collingwood's season though is this - against teams ranked in the top 7 Collingwood finished 6-3, against teams ranked 8th and below they finished 6-7. In finals the Pies were a mixed bag. They played a pretty good match against Adelaide, before playing their worst match of the season against St. Kilda the following week. The losses of Buckley, Licuria and Clement from last season, and the absences of Rocca, Rusling and then later on Didak and Shaw hurt Collingwood a lot. Considering injuries and the Didak fiasco, Collingwood did pretty well to win a final. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Game-changing players. An odd strength to have, but the Pies team is almost built upon the ability of Dale Thomas, Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak to change matches. These four guys are what make Collingwood special. They're skillful, clever and creative. Hopefully all four are back next year.
Area that needs to be addressed: THE RUCK. I'm almost resigned to the fact that Collingwood will never ever have a half decent ruckman. The stats speak for themselves. Since 1999 Collingwood's averages in hitouts per game amongst the league have ranked like this - 14th, 16th, 16th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 16th, 15th, 12th, 13th. It's as astounding as it is depressing. Compare that to this, since 2001 the premiership team has ranked - 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and this year 9th. The stats don't lie, unless you have Buddy Franklin you need a good ruckman to win the premiership. Josh Fraser, Chris Bryan and Cameron Wood don't inspire much confidence.
MVP: Travis Cloke might be more important, but this year Paul Medhurst was the most valuable. Statistically Medhurst was brilliant, 16 disposals 8 marks and 2 goals a game doesn't grow on trees. It went beyond the statistics. It was around the Essendon game (the one we lost) where Medhurst officially made the leap. As a fan you just got the sense that everytime he got the ball he was going to do something special with it. After 11 years of watching Collingwood play the only other player I developed this sense with was Buckley. And that's the greatest compliment I can give any Collingwood player.
Outlook: Clouded. It's difficult to get a handle on this team. I can rationalise them finishing next year anywhere between 3rd and 13th. The case to be made for them states that O'Brien, Brown, Goldsack and Maxwell all get better, and the return of Heath Shaw with something to prove shores up the defense. Rocca, Rusling and Reid all return to give us a forward line of Cloke, Rocca and the choice of Reid/Rusling/Dawes to go alongside Paul Medhurst and John Anthony. The case against says that Medhurst and Davis come back down to Earth, Anthony Rocca's corpse doesn't do anything, Travis will never deliver, the Pies lack a gun midfielder and competent ruckman, and we still don't have anyone to stop the Franklins, Fevolas and Riewoldts of the world. The question hinges on Ben Cousins. If we get him, I like us as a top four team. If we don't we're destined to spend the fourth year running as a bottom half of the eight side.
7. Adelaide (13-10)
2008: Same old, same old really. Finished inexplicably high on the ladder after 22 rounds but failed to deliver in finals. My theory is this - Adelaide is a well-oiled machine that overachieves every home and away season because of their coach. They win because of tactics, structure and strategy. When it comes to finals though, you need a depth of talent and a lot of heart. Adelaide don't have that. The telling stat is this - in Neil Craig's tenure Adelaide have come from behind at three quarter time to win a match once. That's incredible. The Crows just don't look like a tough team. They got as close as 8 or 9 points in the last quarter of the final against Collingwood but I was never really that worried. Science and structure are no substitute for a killer instinct. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Strategy and discipline. The Crows don't take nights off. They always come to play, and if their is a realistic shot of winning they'll do it or come pretty close to it. The Crows win matches that they should, they finished 10-3 against the bottom eight this year.
Greatest weakness: Talent. Being well-oiled and ready to play every night can only get you so far. You need a depth of talent all over the field. You look at Adelaide's list and it's no wonder they haven't won a final in three years. The Crows have four genuinely quality players - Scott Thompson, Brett Burton, Jason Porplyzia and Andrew McLeod. Porplyzia couldn't stay healthy and Burton is a perennial injury concern. McLeod is 32 years old. Scott Thompson made a leap of sorts this year, but he can still be too easily shut out of matches and doesn't perform in big games.
MVP: I actually think it's Andrew McLeod. He's the heart and soul of the team, he provides drive and class of the half back line. Until Scott Thompson steps up the MVP is McLeod's.
Outlook: It's too hard to tell with these Crows. If Burton and Porplyzia are healthy for next year, and the draw favours them they'll have a crack at the eight again. If not, then they're in trouble.
8. Kangaroos (12-1-10)
2008: Wow, what happened? Entering round 21 the Kangaroos were believed to be the second best team in the competition. After they lost, but didn't disgrace themselves, against Geelong they were still believed to be as good a contender as anyone. All they had to do was take care of lowly Port Adelaide in Melbourne and they had fourth spot. Incredibly they lost, and they didn't just lose - they were smashed. All of a sudden they found themselves in 7th spot, confidence shattered into a million pieces and a trip to Sydney and poor conditions ahead. They played a terrible final and were one and done. So much can change in three weeks. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Discipline and focus. Like Adelaide the Kangaroos play hard every week. They tackle hard and do all the small things. Rarely do they lose matches they should win (unless fourth spot and the double chance is on the line).
Greatest weakness: Midfield depth. There isn't much on offer after Brent Harvey. Adam Simpson will be 33 next year, Brady Rawlings is a negator, Daniel Wells might be trade bait and Jess Sinclair is nothing but a poor man's Nick Dal Santo.
MVP: Does it even need to be said? Brent Harvey is the reason the Kangaroos are even relevant. He's a mercurial talent, as well as the guy that makes this team tick.
Outlook: People write off the Kangaroos every year. Already they're something like 14th favourite to win the flag next year. Shannon Grant is done, and Adam Simpson, Jess Sinclair, Corey Jones and even Brent Harvey won't be far behind. The team is surprisingly young though, although the youth doesn't exactly wow anyone. If Hale and Petrie can perform like they did this year in 2009 then the Roos are a chance, but as of now I don't have them in the finals.
9. Richmond (11-1-10)
2008: I think the Ninthmond Tigers has a better ring to it. Luckily this year the heartbreak wasn't so painful for the Tiger supporters - they were never really in it. The team took massive strides this year, and for a unit that was a consensus bottom two pick, they showed up everyone. They showed the future by finishing the season an astounding 8-3. In spite of all this I feel like the positive win-loss record is a bit misleading. I still can't really see how this team did so well. When you look closer the team really wasn't that good. On that 8-3 run seven of the teams they beat were bottom eight sides. Against top eight teams the Tigers were 1-1-9, they still have a while to go. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Swagger. You have to like the way this team plays. In close matches they genuinely know what they're doing. The wins over Carlton in the first match of the season, Essendon, Brisbane and Port Adelaide at AAMI were inspirational.
Area that needs to be addressed: The forward line is going to be a problem very soon. By next season Matthew Richardson will be 34. Jack Riewoldt is too thin, and no one else really stands out as a forward line option.
MVP: Call me the devil but what the hell - Joel Bowden. The case for Matthew Richardson is obvious, but the older Bowden's case is just as strong. For someone that was dropped early in the year Joel Bowden had a remarkable season. The 30 year old defender won three matches in the dying seconds. The courageous mark back with the flight to earn victory against Port Adelaide, the composed killing of the clock against Essendon, and the super clutch goal against Brisbane to keep the season alive. Richardson may have been better, but you can't say Bowden wasn't valuable.
Outlook: Obviously bright. The youth is fantastic. Deledio and Foley are stars and Cotchin (if he isn't already) will be there soon. This still isn't a finals side though. Richardson is in for a regression and Nathan Brown isn't getting any younger. I'm guessing a slight decline in wins next year and finals the year after.
10. Brisbane (10-12)
2008: What a collapse. After being touted as a top four team the Lions finished the year 3-8 and somehow fell behind Richmond. The Lions lost three matches (Melbourne, Kangaroos, Carlton) where they were in a position where they seemingly couldn't lose. Simply put they choked. This Lions team is possibly the biggest anomaly in the AFL. Are they a good team? Last year there was about a five week patch towards the end of the season where they were playing better football than any team in the league. This year they started the season at 7-3 and were well on their way. Once again it all turned to crap. The forward line is completely reliant on Brown and Bradshaw, there's no halfway competent third option. The midfield is good, but the defense is suspect. Daniel Merrett doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence as a number one key defender. The Lions played some great footy this year but too often didn't show up, and when push came to shove they were left wincing in the corner. Grade: C
Greatest strength: The midfield. The obvious option is the Bradshaw/Brown tandem, but I question Bradshaw's quality and the midfield really is fantastic. Old hands Simon Black, Luke Power and rejuvenated Travis Johnstone along with young guns Michael Rischitelli and Brad Dalziell make this unit formiddible at the feet of Jamie Charman.
Greatest weakness: Performance in the clutch. The team simply doesn't know what to do in clutch situations. They don't manage the clock or control tempo. That's why they didn't play finals for the fourth year running.
MVP: J. Brown is the obvious answer, but the Brownlow medal runner-up deserves some love. I don't think people really appreciate exactly how good Simon Black is. There's a reason he finished runner up this year and won the medal a few years back. The way he gets himself to every stoppage and wins the ball at the clinches is amazing. My defining memory of Black is from last year in a classic match against Sydney. With the season on the line and down by a goal with about 30 seconds to go the Swans were suffocating the stoppages. Black was able to win the ball cleanly, run along the boundary line and deliver a desperate handball to Luke Power as his legs fell from beneath him. Power delivered to Jonathan Brown who slotted the goal to keep the season alive. That passage was so indicative of Simon Black. The hard worker and matchwinner whose work so often goes unnoticed. Not by the umpires though, and definitely not by me.
Outlook: Pretty good I think. Black and Power are 29 and 28 respectively so they'll have 2-3 years left of quality football and probably more. Newly re-signed skipper Jonathan Brown is just 26, and the youth looks very good. Taking over from Leigh Matthews is no easy gig, but I think a breath of fresh air might be good for this team. I fully expect them to play finals next year.
11. Carlton (10-12)
2008: A rollercoaster year for the Blues and a return to relevance. This team scares me. They piss me off just as much. I hate the fact that they've tanked their way into Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer, and now seem set for years. After losing their first three matches the Blues finished the season 10-9 and look in great shape for the future. The midfield is frightening. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Carrazo, Scotland? C'mon. Seems like Judd left Kerr and Cousins for two guys that are going to be as good as them. All season the Blues played with a genuine swagger and belief. They believed they were good enough to win matches and they ended up doing just that. The come from behind wins interstate over Port Adelaide and Brisbane were unreal. Unlike Richmond, Carlton actually managed to compete against some half-decent teams. The Blues finished just 3-5 against teams in the top six, and were very unlucky not to snatch a win over Sydney. The year was a huge success for Carlton, and success is something this team is only going to see more of. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Judd and Murphy are superstars, Bryce Gibbs will be, Nick Stevens is an established gun, and Heath Scotland and Carrazo are very solid. It's a scary unit.
Area that needs to be addressed: Aside from getting a Robin to Fevola's Batman, the Blues need a ruckman. They ranked 16th in hitouts this season and need some stop-gap to put the ball to Judd, Murphy and co's advantage while Kreuzer develops.
MVP: Chris Judd. He provides leadership, hardness and intelligence to the football club. Fully expect him to regain his title as best player in the league once healthy.
Outlook: Very bright. If the Blues can get say Jeff White and someone else steps up in the forward line there is no reason they can't be playing finals next year. In 2010 and beyond though, that's where they'll be really dangerous.
12. Essendon (8-14)
2008: They showed the future in 2008 but more often than not at the cost of the present. They play an exciting free-flowing brand of footy, but it lacks accountability and pressure. Hopefully that will improve in time. The list is young and explosive. Reimers, Jetta, Davey and Houli are all exciting talents. Watson, Stanton, Monfries and Welsh will hold down spots for years. This year was largely a development year though. The Dons simply weren't good enough to play well enough over 22 rounds to be relevant. The fact that 12 of their 14 losses came amidst losing streaks is indicative of the inexperienced list. The season was not lost though, the Dons still showed that they have a bright future. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Exciting young talent. Similar to Collingwood, Essendon have a number of players that can simply break games open. Houli, Jetta, Reimers and Davey (assuming he's the same when he returns) can all turn matches with their unreal talents.
Area that needs to be addressed: Accountability. The Dons didn't man up all year and it hurt them. No team conceded more goals. This one's on Matthew Knights.
MVP: Matthew Lloyd. This year he was the barometer. 62 goals this season was a remarkable effort from the skipper. Lloyd kicked 33 goals in 8 Bomber wins. He kicked 29 in 14 losses. When Lloyd fired so did Essendon.
Outlook: Mixed. Next year is no sure thing. Lloyd and Lucas will be 31 and Fletcher will be 34. We've seen the best of them. That said the youth will step up again, and McVeigh and Hille will still be in their prime. 10 wins is the next step.
13. Port Adelaide (7-15)
2008: Were much better than their record indicated. Like Brisbane and Fremantle last year's runners-up simply couldn't get over the line in close games. In games decided by 20 points or less the Power were 1-8. Contrast that to last year when the Power were 8-2 in those games. The team was largely unchanged from the Grand Final side of last year. Port simply weren't a very good team last year. Everything fell their way. They won matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide late in the season that they simply shouldn't have. In finals they snuck over the line against an injury-decimated West Coast and a mediocre Kangaroos side. This year's results were more indicative of the quality of the side than last year's. That said Port Adelaide are much better than a 7 win team. They should have won 10-11 matches this year. The youth in the team is exciting, and they still have a number of gun players. Last year everything went right, this year everything went wrong. They've been at both extremes, but that's football. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. The Power ranked #1 in hitouts this year. Port have always been blessed with elite ruckman, with Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan the Power have incredibly ranked in the top half of the league in hitouts ever since their inception.
Area that needs to be addressed: Key position players. Port lack a key defender or key forward. The forward line is held down by the smaller Brett Ebert and Daniel Motlop. These guys are terrific players but shouldn't be the focal point of any forward line. Tredrea's corpse needs to be laid to rest, and the Westhoffs are too thin. In defense Toby Thurstans doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Chad Cornes might need to be established at one end next year.
MVP: Hard to call. Chad Cornes is the most important, his brother is the most consistent, but its Shaun Burgoyne that elevates them to another level. Burgoyne doesn't get his fair due, he's one of the elite players in the league. A dominant force at the clearances, Burgoyne's performance against Collingwood in Round 20 (33 disposals 18 clearances) was astounding.
Outlook: I fully expect Port Adelaide to be back in finals next year. There's too much talent in this team. A full season of Chad Cornes and Shaun Burgoyne and the continued development of young players, combined with improved results in close games will be enough for a finals spot.
14. Fremantle (6-16)
2008: One of the most bizarre seasons you'll ever see. How a team can have a percentage of 94 and lose 16 games is beyond me. The Dockers simply failed in every possible close situation. Losing five games in a row when leading at three quarter time is astounding. In reality Freo were probably as good or better than the higher placed Carlton/Richmond/Essendon trio. It's harsh to pin it on one man, but if Matthew Pavlich could kick straight Fremantle definitely would have had two more wins, and possibly four. The youth was promising on the year though, Rhys Palmer is a gun and Garrick Ibbotson will be a 200 game player. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. Aaron Sandilands gives his team an advantage that no other team has.
Area that needs to be addressed: Taking advantage of the ruck. Freo has this advantage that other teams (hmmmm Collingwood?) would kill for. Sandilands is winning the ruck every week yet Fremantle were unable to capitalise on it. They need a better stoppage structure and more intelligence from the midfielders.
MVP: Matthew Pavlich. No brainer. The Captain failed in clutch situations this year, but excelled in every other situation. Still the barometer of the club and one of the ten best players in the league.
Outlook: A healthy Paul Haselby, the continued improvement of the youngsters and Fremantle can push for finals next year. I think the team is too young though, and the mental fragility won't just go away. They'll come close next year but they'll spend a third consecutive September on the outisde looking in.
15. West Coast (4-18)
2008: How far the mighty have fallen. I don't think a dynasty has ever ended so quickly. And so violently. The Eagles simply imploded without superstars Chris Judd and Ben Cousins. The team lacked leadership, direction and health all season long. They weren't quite as bad as their record reflected, injuries hurt them more than any other team, but they were still horrible. Veterans looked terrible and the youth showed their inexperience. They played a handful of decent matches, but too often they simply didn't show up for matches. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the loss at home to Geelong was the single worst performance I have seen from and team in any code of sport. Grade: E
Greatest strength: Ummm? I guess it's the ruck. Dean Cox is still the pre-eminent ruckman in the league and he makes the Eagles competitive in stoppages at the very least.
Area that needs to be addressed: Leadership. The void left by Judd and Cousins can not be understated. Usually steady hands Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein had years to forget, and leader Adam Hunter couldn't get on the field.
MVP: Clearly Dean Cox. In a year when the Eagles looked like rubbish Cox only enhanced his reptuation as one of the best players, and best blokes in the competition.
Outlook: The youth is solid and the veterans (Embley, Stenglein, Glass, Hunter, Wirrpanda) should bounce back. The middle-band of players in their prime is still pretty good. Cox, Kerr, Priddis, Selwood, Rosa, Waters, Lynch, Hansen and LeCras is a pretty good group of players. It'd be extraordinary if they bounced back to play finals next year, but with some health and focus it's not out of the question. Still though, smart money is on a bottom four finish.
16. Melbourne (3-19)
2008: One of the most inept seasons of all time. You don't wind up with a percentage of 62 easily. You have to earn that. And the Demons did. It was one of the worst ever teams you'll ever see. The veterans went down early, the youth didn't impress a lot and the team played sloppy football all season. I don't think there's anything positive to take out of the season. Grade: E-
Greatest strength: ...
Area that needs to be addressed: Getting good players. Seriously, if you were building a finals team from the ground up who would you take from the Melbourne team? Cameron Bruce and Brock McLean probably. Nathan Jones might have a shot at the bench.
MVP: Cameron Bruce I guess. The classy midfielder quietly pieced together one of his finest seasons.
Outlook: They'll be competitive... in 2013.
1. Hawthorn (20-5)
2008: Obviously a magnificent season for the Premiers. Perhaps the mark of a great team is not only its ability to win matches, but to genuinely affect the way the game is played. With their zone defense, which suffocated opponents into submission, the Hawks did just that. Their revolutionary zone was able to mask a few defensive deficiencies, the midfield led by skipper Sam Mitchell, consistent and underrated Brad Sewell, hard-nuts Jordan Lewis and Chance Bateman, and the still useful Shane Crawford was terrific all year. The forward line was the story though, with the mercurial Lance Franklin dominant all season, and well backed by the capable Jarryd Roughead and Mark Williams. Lost a few matches that they shouldn't have (Richmond, Kangaroos, St. Kilda) but come finals that didn't matter. The Hawks made the Dogs and Saints look very bad, and then did the same to the Cats. A brilliant season. Grade: A
Greatest strength: Zone defense. The biggest tactical story of the year. The way the Hawks employed this all season made it virtually impossible to advance the ball forward out of your backline. The way the Hawks suffocated the Bulldogs in the qualifying final with the zone was extraordinary.
Area that needs to be addressed: The Ruck. Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf is probably the weakest premiership ruck tandem for... ever?
MVP: Lance Franklin. I was tempted to go with the inspirational Luke Hodge, but Buddy is the Hawks most important player. His ability to win matches off his own boot is second to none. Showed something in the Grand Final too, despite being beaten on the day he still was able to produce two crucial goals. They say the mark of a great player is being able to get it done even when you're not at your best. That's exactly what Buddy did yesterday. The most exciting player in the league.
Outlook: Is there any reason to believe the Hawks won't be even better next year? That's the scary thing, this team is so young. The potential loss of Crawford won't hurt too much, the Hawks have the depth to cover the veteran. The most frightening prospect for opposition teams is that Lance Franklin is only going to get better. Assuming they aren't decimated by injuries this team is a virtual lock for top 2 next year.
2. Geelong (23-2)
2008: Dominated all year but came up short when it mattered. The degree to which Geelong choked away the 2008 premiership can not be understated. With Hawthorn on the ropes midway through the final term the game was theirs for the taking. Instead Hawthorn reeled off three of four goals in a row. A great team would never let that happen. The Cats were again dominant in the home and away season, destroying opponents on a weekly basis. They did slip a few times though, the loss to Collingwood and close escapes against Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos. Rarely were they matched though. The defensive unit was rock solid, the forward line creative and the midfield the best in the league. The Bartel-Ablett-Corey-Selwood quartet was brilliant. It's hard to beat a team when they have 4 of the 15 players in the league all playing in the same part of the ground. It was all for nothing though, as the Cats came up short in September. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Joel Selwood would be the best midfielder at nine different clubs. At Geelong he's the fourth best. That says it all.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line. Cam Mooney choking in the Grand Final just highlighted how shallow the Cats forward line is. With Steve Johnson beginning to play further up the ground, the Cats rely too much on Cam Mooney. Tom Lonergan is an average player at best, so Cam Mooney is the only reliable tall target in the forward line. The midfield makes the forward line look a lot better. Much like Quentin Lynch never would have kicked 60 goals in a season without Judd, Cousins and Kerr, it's hard to see Matty Stokes and Lonergan kicking 38 and 36 goals respectively at any other club. If this club wants to take the next step into the truly elite it needs another key forward.
MVP: Cam Mooney and Matthew Scarlett might be more important structuarly, but Gary Ablett is still what makes this team tick. Incredibly Ablett improved on his amazing 2007 season. An extraordinary talent, Ablett's core strength and low centre of gravity make him virtually impossible to tackle. His performance in a losing Grand Final only enhanced his reputation as the #1 player in the league.
Outlook: No reason to think the Cats won't be back next year on the final Saturday of September. Ablett (25 next year), Bartel (25), Corey (27), Chapman (27), Ling (28), Johnson (26), Rooke (27) and Enright (28) will all still be in their primes next year. Joel Selwood will be 21 next year. Guys like Harley (31), Ottens (29), Scarlett (30), Mooney (30) and Milburn (32) are all getting on but should be able to contribute next year. Beyond that though things are less certain.
3. Western Bulldogs (16-1-8)
2008: A mixed season for the Dogs. One loss through 15 rounds was extraordinary. The Dogs were playing a free-flowing wonderfully attacking style of game. They were impossible to slow down. The Round 16 thumping at the hands of Geelong was a reality check though, and that sent the Dogs in a spiral where they finished the season with just three wins from their final ten matches. In the finals their fortunes were mixed. The Hawks embarassed them but they bounced back strong and took care of Sydney. They then pushed Geelong almost to the brink, but choked away the match with countless missed shots in the third term. On the whole you have to consider the season a success, but it's a hollow statement given where they were at Round 15 as opposed to where they finished. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Run. When this team runs and carries going forward into attack they look as good as any team in the league. Their ability to win matches largely depends on the ability to create run and dash. Quality teams like Hawthorn and Geelong don't allow for it.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line is still a problem. The Dogs don't have a single tall forward that can be relied on to deliver week in week out. Scott Welsh (43 goals) and Mitch Hahn (34 goals) are OK stop-gap solutions, but come September neither delivered. With Johnson, Akermanis, Murphy and Giansiracusa the Dogs have a surplus of small forwards, but unlike the Eagles of 05-06 and the Cats of present day the midfield isn't good enough to cover the flaws of the forward 50.
MVP: Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney. I'm not sure his credentials are Brownlow worthy, but Cooney is definitely the best and most important player on this team. He adds class, dash and opportunism to the Bulldog midfield.
Outlook: If the way the season ended is any indication this Bulldog team has a while to go yet. They aren't going to win a flag with this list, they still need a key forward and another gun midfielder. Unless they get those things they're going to be a perennial 3-6 team.
4. St. Kilda (14-11)
2008: A strange season for the Saints. The fact that they only won three more matches than they lost is kind of telling. St. Kilda were once again heavy on talent, but low on heart. Not even Robert Harvey's retirement could propel them to greater emotional heights. The Saints lucked their way into fourth position, with an easy draw and a number of things falling their way. They won the matches they should have, and lost all the ones they shouldn't have. Against the big three of Geelong, Hawthorn and the Dogs they finished a combined 1-5. Add in Collingwood and Sydney, the other teams in the top six and the Saints still have a terrible 3-8 mark. The inability to beat quality sides obviously hurt St. Kilda in September. They played the two elite teams in September and were thoroughly smashed in each match-up. They eked out a win against a Collingwood team which would have lost to Melbourne on that night. The shining light of the season was their shock win over Hawthorn in Round 16. For one half of football everything the Saints have promised for half a decade now, they delivered. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Talent. The Saints win matches because of their unreal list of individual talents. Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hayes, Dal Santo, Ball, Montagna, Fisher, Goddard, Maguire, Gram, the Clarke brothers. The sheer number of talented players on this team is astounding. Unfortunately the Saints play exactly like individuals, there's no cohesion or direction in the team. That's why they're on the outside looking in yet again.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed in the midfield. Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball are all quality players but none of them are going to win a 100m sprint. The Saints simply get run off their feet by too many teams.
MVP: Nick Riewoldt. Is any player more important to his team than Riewoldt is to the Saints? Without Riewoldt St. Kilda are probably a borderline bottom four team believe it or not. Saint Nick elevated the Saints to a higher level of play in the second half of the season almost singehandedly. His level of performance is largely indicative of his team's result. So not surprisingly Riewoldt played one brilliant final and two shockers, and the Saints won one final convincingly, and were thumped in the other two.
Outlook: It's hard to know what to expect from these Saints. They always promise so much yet fail to deliver. They tease their fans with the odd brilliant performance, only to come thudding back down to Earth soon after. Backing up the tremendous win over Hawthorn with a loss to lowly West Coast was not only indicative of the 2008 season, but of the club in general. The team is still relatively young. The core of Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Fisher, Gram, Goddard, Montagna and Ball is still under 27. But the problem with this team has never been talent, it's been heart. There are no signs this team is about to turn it around, so it's hard to see them getting any closer to a Grand Final than they were this year.
5. Sydney (13-1-10)
2008: You have to think that this was the last year of relevance for the Swans for maybe a while. Considering that the Swans finished the season on a 4-7 run doesn't inspire much confidence. What is more disturbing though is this - in the 2008 home and away season the Swans beat one finals team. That's quite extraordinary. In the regular season Sydney finished 1-9 against teams that finished in the top eight. And the lone win came against at home in poor conditions against a struggling St. Kilda side. Sydney have reached the stage where they can still take care of weak sides, but are unable to raise their game against the big dogs of the league. The Swans played in five matches this year that were decided by two kicks or less and won four of them. This team had no business playing a home final let alone making the finals. The team is old, worn out and in dire need of some youth. They played a terrific final against the lowly Kangaroos, but were completely handled the following week by the Bulldogs. The season is difficult to judge, as they did a) make the finals, and b) won a final. The team simply wasn't very good, but they played well enough when they had to. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Tackling. The Swans list isn't that talented these days, but talent isn't something you require for tackling. Led by inspirational hard nut Brett Kirk, the Swans led the lead in tackling, as they are accustomed to doing these days. They might not win as often as they used to, but the Swans make sure you earn victory physically.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed and youth. These things often come hand in hand. The conditions in the first final against the Roos masked Sydney's lack of speed, but they were exposed by the Dogs on the fresh MCG grass. Sydney simply can't keep up with teams.
MVP: Jarrad McVeigh was Sydney's best player this year, and may be for the next few years, but Adam Goodes is still far and away the most valuable. McVeigh is pushing for it, but Goodes is still the only special player on the Sydney team. He elevates them.
Outlook: Not good. The team is too old, and at best might be semi-relevant for one more year. Kieran Jack and Jarryd Moore are great young talents but beyond them the youth is thin. Maybe next year the Swans have a half chance at competing for the eight, but after that fans should prepare for a prolonged run in the cellars of the competition.
6. Collingwood (13-11)
2008: A strange season for the Pies. It's hard to know whether they overachieved or underachieved. I think they fall somewhere in between. They simply achieved. As has been the case for three years now, Collingwood shot themselves in the foot by failing to take care of lesser teams. Losses to Fremantle, Carlton (twice) and Essendon really killed the season. The 12-10 record didn't really represent where Collingwood stood in the competition. Collingwood didn't play in that many close matches, but the two matches they played in that went down to the wire (2 point loss to Brisbane, the Didak miss against the Kangaroos) they lost. Often a season is made by winning the matches that could go either way, this year Collingwood lost them and found themselves trying to win the flag from 8th spot. The stat that stands out about Collingwood's season though is this - against teams ranked in the top 7 Collingwood finished 6-3, against teams ranked 8th and below they finished 6-7. In finals the Pies were a mixed bag. They played a pretty good match against Adelaide, before playing their worst match of the season against St. Kilda the following week. The losses of Buckley, Licuria and Clement from last season, and the absences of Rocca, Rusling and then later on Didak and Shaw hurt Collingwood a lot. Considering injuries and the Didak fiasco, Collingwood did pretty well to win a final. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Game-changing players. An odd strength to have, but the Pies team is almost built upon the ability of Dale Thomas, Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak to change matches. These four guys are what make Collingwood special. They're skillful, clever and creative. Hopefully all four are back next year.
Area that needs to be addressed: THE RUCK. I'm almost resigned to the fact that Collingwood will never ever have a half decent ruckman. The stats speak for themselves. Since 1999 Collingwood's averages in hitouts per game amongst the league have ranked like this - 14th, 16th, 16th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 16th, 15th, 12th, 13th. It's as astounding as it is depressing. Compare that to this, since 2001 the premiership team has ranked - 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and this year 9th. The stats don't lie, unless you have Buddy Franklin you need a good ruckman to win the premiership. Josh Fraser, Chris Bryan and Cameron Wood don't inspire much confidence.
MVP: Travis Cloke might be more important, but this year Paul Medhurst was the most valuable. Statistically Medhurst was brilliant, 16 disposals 8 marks and 2 goals a game doesn't grow on trees. It went beyond the statistics. It was around the Essendon game (the one we lost) where Medhurst officially made the leap. As a fan you just got the sense that everytime he got the ball he was going to do something special with it. After 11 years of watching Collingwood play the only other player I developed this sense with was Buckley. And that's the greatest compliment I can give any Collingwood player.
Outlook: Clouded. It's difficult to get a handle on this team. I can rationalise them finishing next year anywhere between 3rd and 13th. The case to be made for them states that O'Brien, Brown, Goldsack and Maxwell all get better, and the return of Heath Shaw with something to prove shores up the defense. Rocca, Rusling and Reid all return to give us a forward line of Cloke, Rocca and the choice of Reid/Rusling/Dawes to go alongside Paul Medhurst and John Anthony. The case against says that Medhurst and Davis come back down to Earth, Anthony Rocca's corpse doesn't do anything, Travis will never deliver, the Pies lack a gun midfielder and competent ruckman, and we still don't have anyone to stop the Franklins, Fevolas and Riewoldts of the world. The question hinges on Ben Cousins. If we get him, I like us as a top four team. If we don't we're destined to spend the fourth year running as a bottom half of the eight side.
7. Adelaide (13-10)
2008: Same old, same old really. Finished inexplicably high on the ladder after 22 rounds but failed to deliver in finals. My theory is this - Adelaide is a well-oiled machine that overachieves every home and away season because of their coach. They win because of tactics, structure and strategy. When it comes to finals though, you need a depth of talent and a lot of heart. Adelaide don't have that. The telling stat is this - in Neil Craig's tenure Adelaide have come from behind at three quarter time to win a match once. That's incredible. The Crows just don't look like a tough team. They got as close as 8 or 9 points in the last quarter of the final against Collingwood but I was never really that worried. Science and structure are no substitute for a killer instinct. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Strategy and discipline. The Crows don't take nights off. They always come to play, and if their is a realistic shot of winning they'll do it or come pretty close to it. The Crows win matches that they should, they finished 10-3 against the bottom eight this year.
Greatest weakness: Talent. Being well-oiled and ready to play every night can only get you so far. You need a depth of talent all over the field. You look at Adelaide's list and it's no wonder they haven't won a final in three years. The Crows have four genuinely quality players - Scott Thompson, Brett Burton, Jason Porplyzia and Andrew McLeod. Porplyzia couldn't stay healthy and Burton is a perennial injury concern. McLeod is 32 years old. Scott Thompson made a leap of sorts this year, but he can still be too easily shut out of matches and doesn't perform in big games.
MVP: I actually think it's Andrew McLeod. He's the heart and soul of the team, he provides drive and class of the half back line. Until Scott Thompson steps up the MVP is McLeod's.
Outlook: It's too hard to tell with these Crows. If Burton and Porplyzia are healthy for next year, and the draw favours them they'll have a crack at the eight again. If not, then they're in trouble.
8. Kangaroos (12-1-10)
2008: Wow, what happened? Entering round 21 the Kangaroos were believed to be the second best team in the competition. After they lost, but didn't disgrace themselves, against Geelong they were still believed to be as good a contender as anyone. All they had to do was take care of lowly Port Adelaide in Melbourne and they had fourth spot. Incredibly they lost, and they didn't just lose - they were smashed. All of a sudden they found themselves in 7th spot, confidence shattered into a million pieces and a trip to Sydney and poor conditions ahead. They played a terrible final and were one and done. So much can change in three weeks. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Discipline and focus. Like Adelaide the Kangaroos play hard every week. They tackle hard and do all the small things. Rarely do they lose matches they should win (unless fourth spot and the double chance is on the line).
Greatest weakness: Midfield depth. There isn't much on offer after Brent Harvey. Adam Simpson will be 33 next year, Brady Rawlings is a negator, Daniel Wells might be trade bait and Jess Sinclair is nothing but a poor man's Nick Dal Santo.
MVP: Does it even need to be said? Brent Harvey is the reason the Kangaroos are even relevant. He's a mercurial talent, as well as the guy that makes this team tick.
Outlook: People write off the Kangaroos every year. Already they're something like 14th favourite to win the flag next year. Shannon Grant is done, and Adam Simpson, Jess Sinclair, Corey Jones and even Brent Harvey won't be far behind. The team is surprisingly young though, although the youth doesn't exactly wow anyone. If Hale and Petrie can perform like they did this year in 2009 then the Roos are a chance, but as of now I don't have them in the finals.
9. Richmond (11-1-10)
2008: I think the Ninthmond Tigers has a better ring to it. Luckily this year the heartbreak wasn't so painful for the Tiger supporters - they were never really in it. The team took massive strides this year, and for a unit that was a consensus bottom two pick, they showed up everyone. They showed the future by finishing the season an astounding 8-3. In spite of all this I feel like the positive win-loss record is a bit misleading. I still can't really see how this team did so well. When you look closer the team really wasn't that good. On that 8-3 run seven of the teams they beat were bottom eight sides. Against top eight teams the Tigers were 1-1-9, they still have a while to go. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Swagger. You have to like the way this team plays. In close matches they genuinely know what they're doing. The wins over Carlton in the first match of the season, Essendon, Brisbane and Port Adelaide at AAMI were inspirational.
Area that needs to be addressed: The forward line is going to be a problem very soon. By next season Matthew Richardson will be 34. Jack Riewoldt is too thin, and no one else really stands out as a forward line option.
MVP: Call me the devil but what the hell - Joel Bowden. The case for Matthew Richardson is obvious, but the older Bowden's case is just as strong. For someone that was dropped early in the year Joel Bowden had a remarkable season. The 30 year old defender won three matches in the dying seconds. The courageous mark back with the flight to earn victory against Port Adelaide, the composed killing of the clock against Essendon, and the super clutch goal against Brisbane to keep the season alive. Richardson may have been better, but you can't say Bowden wasn't valuable.
Outlook: Obviously bright. The youth is fantastic. Deledio and Foley are stars and Cotchin (if he isn't already) will be there soon. This still isn't a finals side though. Richardson is in for a regression and Nathan Brown isn't getting any younger. I'm guessing a slight decline in wins next year and finals the year after.
10. Brisbane (10-12)
2008: What a collapse. After being touted as a top four team the Lions finished the year 3-8 and somehow fell behind Richmond. The Lions lost three matches (Melbourne, Kangaroos, Carlton) where they were in a position where they seemingly couldn't lose. Simply put they choked. This Lions team is possibly the biggest anomaly in the AFL. Are they a good team? Last year there was about a five week patch towards the end of the season where they were playing better football than any team in the league. This year they started the season at 7-3 and were well on their way. Once again it all turned to crap. The forward line is completely reliant on Brown and Bradshaw, there's no halfway competent third option. The midfield is good, but the defense is suspect. Daniel Merrett doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence as a number one key defender. The Lions played some great footy this year but too often didn't show up, and when push came to shove they were left wincing in the corner. Grade: C
Greatest strength: The midfield. The obvious option is the Bradshaw/Brown tandem, but I question Bradshaw's quality and the midfield really is fantastic. Old hands Simon Black, Luke Power and rejuvenated Travis Johnstone along with young guns Michael Rischitelli and Brad Dalziell make this unit formiddible at the feet of Jamie Charman.
Greatest weakness: Performance in the clutch. The team simply doesn't know what to do in clutch situations. They don't manage the clock or control tempo. That's why they didn't play finals for the fourth year running.
MVP: J. Brown is the obvious answer, but the Brownlow medal runner-up deserves some love. I don't think people really appreciate exactly how good Simon Black is. There's a reason he finished runner up this year and won the medal a few years back. The way he gets himself to every stoppage and wins the ball at the clinches is amazing. My defining memory of Black is from last year in a classic match against Sydney. With the season on the line and down by a goal with about 30 seconds to go the Swans were suffocating the stoppages. Black was able to win the ball cleanly, run along the boundary line and deliver a desperate handball to Luke Power as his legs fell from beneath him. Power delivered to Jonathan Brown who slotted the goal to keep the season alive. That passage was so indicative of Simon Black. The hard worker and matchwinner whose work so often goes unnoticed. Not by the umpires though, and definitely not by me.
Outlook: Pretty good I think. Black and Power are 29 and 28 respectively so they'll have 2-3 years left of quality football and probably more. Newly re-signed skipper Jonathan Brown is just 26, and the youth looks very good. Taking over from Leigh Matthews is no easy gig, but I think a breath of fresh air might be good for this team. I fully expect them to play finals next year.
11. Carlton (10-12)
2008: A rollercoaster year for the Blues and a return to relevance. This team scares me. They piss me off just as much. I hate the fact that they've tanked their way into Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer, and now seem set for years. After losing their first three matches the Blues finished the season 10-9 and look in great shape for the future. The midfield is frightening. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Carrazo, Scotland? C'mon. Seems like Judd left Kerr and Cousins for two guys that are going to be as good as them. All season the Blues played with a genuine swagger and belief. They believed they were good enough to win matches and they ended up doing just that. The come from behind wins interstate over Port Adelaide and Brisbane were unreal. Unlike Richmond, Carlton actually managed to compete against some half-decent teams. The Blues finished just 3-5 against teams in the top six, and were very unlucky not to snatch a win over Sydney. The year was a huge success for Carlton, and success is something this team is only going to see more of. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Judd and Murphy are superstars, Bryce Gibbs will be, Nick Stevens is an established gun, and Heath Scotland and Carrazo are very solid. It's a scary unit.
Area that needs to be addressed: Aside from getting a Robin to Fevola's Batman, the Blues need a ruckman. They ranked 16th in hitouts this season and need some stop-gap to put the ball to Judd, Murphy and co's advantage while Kreuzer develops.
MVP: Chris Judd. He provides leadership, hardness and intelligence to the football club. Fully expect him to regain his title as best player in the league once healthy.
Outlook: Very bright. If the Blues can get say Jeff White and someone else steps up in the forward line there is no reason they can't be playing finals next year. In 2010 and beyond though, that's where they'll be really dangerous.
12. Essendon (8-14)
2008: They showed the future in 2008 but more often than not at the cost of the present. They play an exciting free-flowing brand of footy, but it lacks accountability and pressure. Hopefully that will improve in time. The list is young and explosive. Reimers, Jetta, Davey and Houli are all exciting talents. Watson, Stanton, Monfries and Welsh will hold down spots for years. This year was largely a development year though. The Dons simply weren't good enough to play well enough over 22 rounds to be relevant. The fact that 12 of their 14 losses came amidst losing streaks is indicative of the inexperienced list. The season was not lost though, the Dons still showed that they have a bright future. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Exciting young talent. Similar to Collingwood, Essendon have a number of players that can simply break games open. Houli, Jetta, Reimers and Davey (assuming he's the same when he returns) can all turn matches with their unreal talents.
Area that needs to be addressed: Accountability. The Dons didn't man up all year and it hurt them. No team conceded more goals. This one's on Matthew Knights.
MVP: Matthew Lloyd. This year he was the barometer. 62 goals this season was a remarkable effort from the skipper. Lloyd kicked 33 goals in 8 Bomber wins. He kicked 29 in 14 losses. When Lloyd fired so did Essendon.
Outlook: Mixed. Next year is no sure thing. Lloyd and Lucas will be 31 and Fletcher will be 34. We've seen the best of them. That said the youth will step up again, and McVeigh and Hille will still be in their prime. 10 wins is the next step.
13. Port Adelaide (7-15)
2008: Were much better than their record indicated. Like Brisbane and Fremantle last year's runners-up simply couldn't get over the line in close games. In games decided by 20 points or less the Power were 1-8. Contrast that to last year when the Power were 8-2 in those games. The team was largely unchanged from the Grand Final side of last year. Port simply weren't a very good team last year. Everything fell their way. They won matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide late in the season that they simply shouldn't have. In finals they snuck over the line against an injury-decimated West Coast and a mediocre Kangaroos side. This year's results were more indicative of the quality of the side than last year's. That said Port Adelaide are much better than a 7 win team. They should have won 10-11 matches this year. The youth in the team is exciting, and they still have a number of gun players. Last year everything went right, this year everything went wrong. They've been at both extremes, but that's football. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. The Power ranked #1 in hitouts this year. Port have always been blessed with elite ruckman, with Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan the Power have incredibly ranked in the top half of the league in hitouts ever since their inception.
Area that needs to be addressed: Key position players. Port lack a key defender or key forward. The forward line is held down by the smaller Brett Ebert and Daniel Motlop. These guys are terrific players but shouldn't be the focal point of any forward line. Tredrea's corpse needs to be laid to rest, and the Westhoffs are too thin. In defense Toby Thurstans doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Chad Cornes might need to be established at one end next year.
MVP: Hard to call. Chad Cornes is the most important, his brother is the most consistent, but its Shaun Burgoyne that elevates them to another level. Burgoyne doesn't get his fair due, he's one of the elite players in the league. A dominant force at the clearances, Burgoyne's performance against Collingwood in Round 20 (33 disposals 18 clearances) was astounding.
Outlook: I fully expect Port Adelaide to be back in finals next year. There's too much talent in this team. A full season of Chad Cornes and Shaun Burgoyne and the continued development of young players, combined with improved results in close games will be enough for a finals spot.
14. Fremantle (6-16)
2008: One of the most bizarre seasons you'll ever see. How a team can have a percentage of 94 and lose 16 games is beyond me. The Dockers simply failed in every possible close situation. Losing five games in a row when leading at three quarter time is astounding. In reality Freo were probably as good or better than the higher placed Carlton/Richmond/Essendon trio. It's harsh to pin it on one man, but if Matthew Pavlich could kick straight Fremantle definitely would have had two more wins, and possibly four. The youth was promising on the year though, Rhys Palmer is a gun and Garrick Ibbotson will be a 200 game player. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. Aaron Sandilands gives his team an advantage that no other team has.
Area that needs to be addressed: Taking advantage of the ruck. Freo has this advantage that other teams (hmmmm Collingwood?) would kill for. Sandilands is winning the ruck every week yet Fremantle were unable to capitalise on it. They need a better stoppage structure and more intelligence from the midfielders.
MVP: Matthew Pavlich. No brainer. The Captain failed in clutch situations this year, but excelled in every other situation. Still the barometer of the club and one of the ten best players in the league.
Outlook: A healthy Paul Haselby, the continued improvement of the youngsters and Fremantle can push for finals next year. I think the team is too young though, and the mental fragility won't just go away. They'll come close next year but they'll spend a third consecutive September on the outisde looking in.
15. West Coast (4-18)
2008: How far the mighty have fallen. I don't think a dynasty has ever ended so quickly. And so violently. The Eagles simply imploded without superstars Chris Judd and Ben Cousins. The team lacked leadership, direction and health all season long. They weren't quite as bad as their record reflected, injuries hurt them more than any other team, but they were still horrible. Veterans looked terrible and the youth showed their inexperience. They played a handful of decent matches, but too often they simply didn't show up for matches. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the loss at home to Geelong was the single worst performance I have seen from and team in any code of sport. Grade: E
Greatest strength: Ummm? I guess it's the ruck. Dean Cox is still the pre-eminent ruckman in the league and he makes the Eagles competitive in stoppages at the very least.
Area that needs to be addressed: Leadership. The void left by Judd and Cousins can not be understated. Usually steady hands Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein had years to forget, and leader Adam Hunter couldn't get on the field.
MVP: Clearly Dean Cox. In a year when the Eagles looked like rubbish Cox only enhanced his reptuation as one of the best players, and best blokes in the competition.
Outlook: The youth is solid and the veterans (Embley, Stenglein, Glass, Hunter, Wirrpanda) should bounce back. The middle-band of players in their prime is still pretty good. Cox, Kerr, Priddis, Selwood, Rosa, Waters, Lynch, Hansen and LeCras is a pretty good group of players. It'd be extraordinary if they bounced back to play finals next year, but with some health and focus it's not out of the question. Still though, smart money is on a bottom four finish.
16. Melbourne (3-19)
2008: One of the most inept seasons of all time. You don't wind up with a percentage of 62 easily. You have to earn that. And the Demons did. It was one of the worst ever teams you'll ever see. The veterans went down early, the youth didn't impress a lot and the team played sloppy football all season. I don't think there's anything positive to take out of the season. Grade: E-
Greatest strength: ...
Area that needs to be addressed: Getting good players. Seriously, if you were building a finals team from the ground up who would you take from the Melbourne team? Cameron Bruce and Brock McLean probably. Nathan Jones might have a shot at the bench.
MVP: Cameron Bruce I guess. The classy midfielder quietly pieced together one of his finest seasons.
Outlook: They'll be competitive... in 2013.
Darkly dreaming slightly underwhelming Dexter
I finished the second season of Dexter a couple of days ago and I was a little disappointed. Don't get me wrong, it was still an excellent season of television, but it lacked the thrilling storyline of the first season. The whole Lila plot thread started off as interesting but lost its way after three or four episodes. I thought it was pretty weak how she ultimately became the central character in the season's finale. I'm also sad to see Sergeant Doakes go, next to Dexter he was probably my favourite character.
The evolution of Dexter has been interesting to watch. As the series has progressed he's become more and more human, and altruistic too. The completely self-absorbed character from the Pilot is now a mere memory. Michael C. Hall is just perfect in the title role. It's one of those performances where it's impossible to envision anyone else in the role. He makes it his own.
Season two was a slight disappointment, but it still had me watching 4 episodes at a time. Either way, I'm dying to get to season three.
The evolution of Dexter has been interesting to watch. As the series has progressed he's become more and more human, and altruistic too. The completely self-absorbed character from the Pilot is now a mere memory. Michael C. Hall is just perfect in the title role. It's one of those performances where it's impossible to envision anyone else in the role. He makes it his own.
Season two was a slight disappointment, but it still had me watching 4 episodes at a time. Either way, I'm dying to get to season three.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Thoughts on the 2008 Grand Final
Some random thoughts on the Grand Final
8 - Stuart Dew (Hawthorn)
8 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)
7 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
7 - Brad Sewell (Hawthorn)
7 - Matthew Scarlett (Geelong)
- Geelong choked away the match. Any talk of comparing them to the great teams of the past 25 years is now mute. 42 wins from 44 matches means nothing, as we stand history remembers the 97-98 Adelaide Crows as a superior team than these Cats.
- I've been saying it ever since the Cats did their best at choking away the preliminary final last year - in huge pressure situations I doubt their mental fortitude. The past two years the Cats have played four matches in the last fortnight in September - they've choked in three of them.
- A number of Geelong players are going to be haunted by that match for a long time. Matty Stokes and James Kelly did nothing. Travis Varcoe did little, and his hesitation on one play in the final term was very costly. Tom Harley may have been injured, but he was also undisciplined. Didn't have a good day. In one of the Cats lowest moments Brad Ottens missed without any pressure on him from 20m directly in front with open teammates in the goalsquare.
- The two key figures for the Cats though aren't hard to point out - Cam Mooney and Harry Taylor. Cam Mooney may have lost this match for Geelong off his own boot. That miss from four metres out at the half time siren would have shook Geelong's confidence immensely going into the break. He then channeled some '05 Michael O'Loughlin and missed two imminently gettable set shots in the second half. The less obvious culprit was Harry Taylor. Taylor did a phenomenal job on Nick Riewoldt earlier in the finals series, but that will count for zero as he coughed up the Grand Final with one mistake. The ghost of Rhyce Shaw hovered near, when in the third quarter Taylor was inside defensive 50, had no clue what he was doing, lost control of the ball in a non-pressure situation and then Stuart Dew pounced and the scoreboard started to look bad for Geelong.
- Let it be known that this was not a very good match of football. Neither team really looked like they wanted to win, the skills weren't as good as you would expect, and Buddy didn't have an impact. The saving grace though was the brute physicality of the contest. Contest really is the apt word, given the way the match was played a boxing ring might have been a more fitting venue to decide the victor than the open plains of the MCG.
- Gary Ablett took an absolute hammering. The Hawks tried the same tactic with Brent Harvey last year in the finals and it didn't work. They lost focus. Not so this time, Ablett was abused all day but the Hawks still managed to stay on task. In spite of this, Ablett played a magnificent match. He was by far Geelong's best, but his inability to kick that goal he should have about halfway through the last term was costly.
- Buddy was a huge disappointment. Scarlett laid the opening blow with a bump that left Franklin down early, and Scarlett maintained the advantage all day. In one on one's Scarlett won about 90% of the time. Again, in spite of this, Franklin came up huge with that goal to match Ablett in the third term, and then the game-breaker midway through the last.
- What on Earth happened to Sam Mitchell? He had no impact in the first half, and seemingly lost it mentally by decking Ablett high twice. It's a good thing Mitchell won today, because he might not have much say in the first month or two of the 2009 campaign. Lucky he kicked that goal in the last quarter.
- The Norm Smith vote and the placing of Shane Crawford among the best is a joke. Crawford played horribly. Sure he got like 25 disposals, but that's not a good thing when you consider the way he was disposing of it. On at least 6 occasions Crawford turned the ball over under no pressure at all. Yeah, it's a great story, but the refusal to acknowledge his poor performance is just plain denial.
- Didn't like the choice of Luke Hodge as Norm Smith medallist. I think it's more on the back of his performances in the preceding finals than what he did today. Yes, he was solid all day, but he gave away a goal and didn't have the impact he had in earlier September matches. My Norm Smith would go to Stuart Dew. Dew almost singlehandedly broke open the game in that decisive third term. He kicked two ripper goals, and set up another with sheer determination. A great performance.
- Cyril Rioli elevated his status today from classy gun to superstar. His efforts to win a 2-on-1 in the third term were inspirational, and he slotted a pressure set shot. Hats off to the kid, he's a champ.
- Don't give too much credit to the Hawks. On the whole the Cats were the better team. They were the better team for the entire match except for that five minute Hawthorn burst in the 3rd term. The Cats completely dominated the second quarter, and as to how the Hawks were within four goals, let alone leading at halftime is astounding. That said, Hawthorn stepped up in the premiership quarter, mentally they were tougher than the Cats, and they stepped up when they needed to. And that's why they're the 2008 premiers and the Cats are not.
8 - Stuart Dew (Hawthorn)
8 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)
7 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
7 - Brad Sewell (Hawthorn)
7 - Matthew Scarlett (Geelong)
The worst finals series ever
The 2008 AFL Finals series came to a close today, and before talking about the hyped match between the Hawks and Cats I want to talk about the disappointment that the finals series was in general. Finals are supposed to be the best matches of the season. Ferocious, intense, desperate. What we want to see more than anything though (unless your a fan of the team playing) is a close match. There's nothing more thrilling than a close game in September.
Under the new finals system there are 9 finals to be played. 2 elimination, 2 qualifying, 2 semi-finals, 2 prelims and the Grand Final. Obviously not all of these matches are going to be close, but there's a realistic hope that 3 or 4 of these matches would have the result in doubt heading into the last ten minutes. This year, not one final was in doubt with ten minutes to play. Not one. On the scoreboard the closest match was in fact the Grand Final - the final margin was 26 points. In reality the closest match was the Collingwood Adelaide clash, but the Pies kicked clear midway through the final term to secure the 31 point win.
Generally each year in the finals we get a handful of close games, and one or two genuine classic matches. Last year there were three finals decided by less than a kick plus another one that went to extra time. Hawthorn-Adelaide (Buddy with the matchwinner), Collingwood-West Coast (extra time, and perhaps the most excruciating final minute of fourth quarter in the history of football), Geelong-Collingwood (a nailbiter for the ages in front of 98, 000 people at the 'G). All these were classic matches. 2006 - two finals decided by a point, and another two decided by less than three goals. Both Sydney-West Coast matches were instant classics. 2005 - five games decided by 16 points or less, again both Sydney-West Coast matches were classics, and then of course there's the Nick Davis match against Geelong. 2004 saw four finals decided by ten points or less, and the Port Adelaide-St. Kilda preliminary final was one of the best finals of the past decade.
Every year we get a number of September matches that we'll remember long after we've seen them. That's the thrill of finals footy. This year we got none.
Under the new finals system there are 9 finals to be played. 2 elimination, 2 qualifying, 2 semi-finals, 2 prelims and the Grand Final. Obviously not all of these matches are going to be close, but there's a realistic hope that 3 or 4 of these matches would have the result in doubt heading into the last ten minutes. This year, not one final was in doubt with ten minutes to play. Not one. On the scoreboard the closest match was in fact the Grand Final - the final margin was 26 points. In reality the closest match was the Collingwood Adelaide clash, but the Pies kicked clear midway through the final term to secure the 31 point win.
Generally each year in the finals we get a handful of close games, and one or two genuine classic matches. Last year there were three finals decided by less than a kick plus another one that went to extra time. Hawthorn-Adelaide (Buddy with the matchwinner), Collingwood-West Coast (extra time, and perhaps the most excruciating final minute of fourth quarter in the history of football), Geelong-Collingwood (a nailbiter for the ages in front of 98, 000 people at the 'G). All these were classic matches. 2006 - two finals decided by a point, and another two decided by less than three goals. Both Sydney-West Coast matches were instant classics. 2005 - five games decided by 16 points or less, again both Sydney-West Coast matches were classics, and then of course there's the Nick Davis match against Geelong. 2004 saw four finals decided by ten points or less, and the Port Adelaide-St. Kilda preliminary final was one of the best finals of the past decade.
Every year we get a number of September matches that we'll remember long after we've seen them. That's the thrill of finals footy. This year we got none.
Friday, September 26, 2008
NFL week 4 predictions
Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3)
Well, one team has to win. Everyone expected these teams to under-perform this year, but no one would have predicted a combined 0-6 record heading into this game. This game should be an offensive explosion, 6 or 7 TD's is more than likely. The Browns really have shown nothing this year. Losing to the Flacco-led Ravens by three scores is something to be ashamed of. Cinci on the other hand are at least showing flashes of form. They played hard last week in Jersey, and Carson Palmer looked much better. Home field and the better QB gives the edge to the Bengals. Cincinnati 35 Cleveland 31
Minnesota (1-2) at Tennessee (3-0)
The Titans are looking like the best team in the AFC. A big test comes from the unproved Vikings this week at home. The Vikings offense is one-dimensional, and is averaging just 18 points a game. Combine that with the fact that the Titans have given up just 29 points in three matches, and it doesn't bode well for the Vikes. Neither running game is going anywhere, so the game is going to be one in the air you suspect. Can't comment on who the better of Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte is, but the Titans pass defense is a lot better than Minnesota's, and that should be the telling edge. Tennessee 19 Minnesota 13
Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3)
It's never good when one of the top 5 teams in the league goes against one of the bottom 5. The Broncos defense might not be the best, but it's not going to matter against the lowly Chiefs. A good time to own Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall on your fantasy team. Denver 39 Kansas City 21
San Francisco (2-1) at New Orleans (1-2)
The Saints have been on the end of some tough luck lately, they could very easily be 3-0. Combine that with the fact that they've lost their two most dangerous receivers, and the Big Easy is going to be in Big Trouble. Should be an offensive battle, and considering the injuries I think the offenses are a wash, but the 49ers D is much better. Will be tight, but I'm already hopping on the JT bandwagon. San Francisco 31 New Orleans 27
Arizona (2-1) at NY Jets (2-1)
The bright shiny mood in New York is well and truly gone. They were lucky to edge the lowly Dolphins, were thoroughly out-coached by the not-so-good Patriots, and then were embarassed on national TV by the Chargers. It's a bit early in the season, but the fact is this - Tennessee, Indy, Jacksonville, Denver and San Diego are all better teams than the Jets. Those teams will swallow up the wild cards, so the Jets have to win their division to get to the postseason. Falling into a 1-3 hole when you have to deal with the 3-0 Bills and the 2-1 Patriots (who will get better) is as good as death. A must win for the Jets, and I think Favre breaks loose the shackles and leads NY to a momentum building victory. NY Jets 27 Arizona 24
Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Important clash for the NFC. The way I see it Dallas and Philly are in their own tier in the NFC. Then the next tier down has a lot of teams like New York, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa and maybe Chicago. This match will go a long way to deciding which of these teams is the real deal. It would be a huge win for the Packers, to overcome their injuries to the secondary and bounce back from their defeat last week to the Cowboys. But with Ryan Grant still banged up, I think the Bucs can focus on shutting down the pass and come up with the win. Tampa Bay 24 Green Bay 17
Atlanta (2-1) at Carolina (2-1)
The Panthers should take care of business this week. Last week I think they were just beaten by a decent team at home that absolutely had to win. Another week with Steve Smith in the offense, and I think the Stewart/Williams combo runs riot on the porous Atlanta defense. Carolina 28 Atlanta 13
Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2)
Another must win for the Jags. The Texans have looked very ordinary so far, and opening the season with three road games (due to Ike) is going to kill them. That said the Texans have had the goods over Jacksonville lately, and if they can pull out a win they'll be in pretty good shape for the rest of the season (8 of the last 13 games at home, where they are tough to beat). Easier said than done though, I think Jones and MJD build on last week and take care of business. Jacksonville 27 Houston 17
San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The Chargers looked really good on Monday night. This could be ugly. San Diego 41 Oakland 10
Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3)
Potential danger game for the Bills. On the road against a lowly team that isn't as bad as its hyped to be filled with underachieving players. I think the Rams come close, but Trent Edwards comes up big for the Bills down the stretch. Buffalo 30 St. Louis 27
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0)
Statement game here for the Cowboys. The Redskins aren't a good team, and they've been lucky to eke out those two wins. I think this is an embarassment for the Skins. Dallas 44 Washington 20
Philadelphia (2-1) at Chicago (1-2) UPSET OF THE WEEK
Huge game here for the Bears. It's only Week 4 but this is a huge game for the shape of their season really. If they lose three games on the trot at home they aren't going to be in good shape for the rest of the year. With the Eagles' two key players, McNabb and Westbrook, both banged up I think the Bears come through at home. Chicago 24 Philadelphia 13
Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Big game for Baltimore's playoff aspirations. I still think they're pretenders. They beat a lowly Bengals team and a Cleveland team with zero confidence. Joe Flacco hasn't really impressed, and as good as the defense is the offense needs to function and I don't think it will. McGahee is under an injury cloud, and Pittsburgh are out to prove a point. That said, I think that Pittsburgh offense is so banged up (terrible offensive line, no Willie Parker, Big Ben hurting) that the Ravens hammer them into submission. Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 14
Well, one team has to win. Everyone expected these teams to under-perform this year, but no one would have predicted a combined 0-6 record heading into this game. This game should be an offensive explosion, 6 or 7 TD's is more than likely. The Browns really have shown nothing this year. Losing to the Flacco-led Ravens by three scores is something to be ashamed of. Cinci on the other hand are at least showing flashes of form. They played hard last week in Jersey, and Carson Palmer looked much better. Home field and the better QB gives the edge to the Bengals. Cincinnati 35 Cleveland 31
Minnesota (1-2) at Tennessee (3-0)
The Titans are looking like the best team in the AFC. A big test comes from the unproved Vikings this week at home. The Vikings offense is one-dimensional, and is averaging just 18 points a game. Combine that with the fact that the Titans have given up just 29 points in three matches, and it doesn't bode well for the Vikes. Neither running game is going anywhere, so the game is going to be one in the air you suspect. Can't comment on who the better of Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte is, but the Titans pass defense is a lot better than Minnesota's, and that should be the telling edge. Tennessee 19 Minnesota 13
Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3)
It's never good when one of the top 5 teams in the league goes against one of the bottom 5. The Broncos defense might not be the best, but it's not going to matter against the lowly Chiefs. A good time to own Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall on your fantasy team. Denver 39 Kansas City 21
San Francisco (2-1) at New Orleans (1-2)
The Saints have been on the end of some tough luck lately, they could very easily be 3-0. Combine that with the fact that they've lost their two most dangerous receivers, and the Big Easy is going to be in Big Trouble. Should be an offensive battle, and considering the injuries I think the offenses are a wash, but the 49ers D is much better. Will be tight, but I'm already hopping on the JT bandwagon. San Francisco 31 New Orleans 27
Arizona (2-1) at NY Jets (2-1)
The bright shiny mood in New York is well and truly gone. They were lucky to edge the lowly Dolphins, were thoroughly out-coached by the not-so-good Patriots, and then were embarassed on national TV by the Chargers. It's a bit early in the season, but the fact is this - Tennessee, Indy, Jacksonville, Denver and San Diego are all better teams than the Jets. Those teams will swallow up the wild cards, so the Jets have to win their division to get to the postseason. Falling into a 1-3 hole when you have to deal with the 3-0 Bills and the 2-1 Patriots (who will get better) is as good as death. A must win for the Jets, and I think Favre breaks loose the shackles and leads NY to a momentum building victory. NY Jets 27 Arizona 24
Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Important clash for the NFC. The way I see it Dallas and Philly are in their own tier in the NFC. Then the next tier down has a lot of teams like New York, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa and maybe Chicago. This match will go a long way to deciding which of these teams is the real deal. It would be a huge win for the Packers, to overcome their injuries to the secondary and bounce back from their defeat last week to the Cowboys. But with Ryan Grant still banged up, I think the Bucs can focus on shutting down the pass and come up with the win. Tampa Bay 24 Green Bay 17
Atlanta (2-1) at Carolina (2-1)
The Panthers should take care of business this week. Last week I think they were just beaten by a decent team at home that absolutely had to win. Another week with Steve Smith in the offense, and I think the Stewart/Williams combo runs riot on the porous Atlanta defense. Carolina 28 Atlanta 13
Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2)
Another must win for the Jags. The Texans have looked very ordinary so far, and opening the season with three road games (due to Ike) is going to kill them. That said the Texans have had the goods over Jacksonville lately, and if they can pull out a win they'll be in pretty good shape for the rest of the season (8 of the last 13 games at home, where they are tough to beat). Easier said than done though, I think Jones and MJD build on last week and take care of business. Jacksonville 27 Houston 17
San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The Chargers looked really good on Monday night. This could be ugly. San Diego 41 Oakland 10
Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3)
Potential danger game for the Bills. On the road against a lowly team that isn't as bad as its hyped to be filled with underachieving players. I think the Rams come close, but Trent Edwards comes up big for the Bills down the stretch. Buffalo 30 St. Louis 27
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0)
Statement game here for the Cowboys. The Redskins aren't a good team, and they've been lucky to eke out those two wins. I think this is an embarassment for the Skins. Dallas 44 Washington 20
Philadelphia (2-1) at Chicago (1-2) UPSET OF THE WEEK
Huge game here for the Bears. It's only Week 4 but this is a huge game for the shape of their season really. If they lose three games on the trot at home they aren't going to be in good shape for the rest of the year. With the Eagles' two key players, McNabb and Westbrook, both banged up I think the Bears come through at home. Chicago 24 Philadelphia 13
Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Big game for Baltimore's playoff aspirations. I still think they're pretenders. They beat a lowly Bengals team and a Cleveland team with zero confidence. Joe Flacco hasn't really impressed, and as good as the defense is the offense needs to function and I don't think it will. McGahee is under an injury cloud, and Pittsburgh are out to prove a point. That said, I think that Pittsburgh offense is so banged up (terrible offensive line, no Willie Parker, Big Ben hurting) that the Ravens hammer them into submission. Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 14
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Killing time with Dexter
I've only seen 17 episodes of Dexter so far but I'm already convinced that it's the best show on television and one of the ten best shows of the past decade. The show is such a great mix of drama, dry comedy and surprisingly emotion. On the surface Dexter might be hard to empathise with, because of his lack of emotion, but you find yourself rooting for him pretty quickly. The black script is fantastic. The comedy is low-key and understated but it produces some laughs. The acting across the table is terrific. Michael C. Hall really is amazing as Dexter Morgan. He's got the role down pat. Everything from the uncomfortable look he has, the raised shoulders, even the way he eats. Maybe I'm overanalysing but everything about his character rings true.
I stayed up until 4am a couple nights ago finishing off the first season of Dexter. I loved the Ice Truck Killer arc, although I did pick the shock 'twist' around episode 8 or whatever. It's not normal for someone to talk that in depth about a love of limbs. The show isn't perfect though. Deb has got to be one of the 25 most annoying characters in TV history. Even when Dexter has just found out that his biological father has just died she has a massive go at him. I'm not a fan of the Ice Truck Killer's ethics, but I would have easily turned a blind eye had he taken care of Deb.
The start of the second season was a little underwhelming, I must admit. Everything seems like it's just building towards something greater, not much is going on right now. One surprising thing has been the evolution of Rita's bitchyness. She's become a real unpleasant person, and you can't help but hope that Dex ends up with fresh new Lyla, who by the way is a great addition to the show. I'm excited for the season on a whole though, and just really excited for the show in general. God's speed Dexter.
On the other side of TV, last night's episode of Fringe was really disappointing. The first episode was fantastic but last night was just dreadful. It was kind of funny the irony of how the storyline about aging and dying unnaturally quickly reflected my interest in the show in general. That's a bit harsh though. Given the strength of the Pilot I've already locked myself in for the first 5 or 6 episodes at least, but beyond that no promises.
Boston Legal remains consistent as ever, Wednesday night's episode a solid contribution to the Boston Legal canon. The problem, and the only real one, with the show is it's inability to produce really good episodes. There's probably only about two or three genuinely fantastic episodes each season (one of season 4's came a week ago). Still though, no complaints from me this is still a brilliant show.
I stayed up until 4am a couple nights ago finishing off the first season of Dexter. I loved the Ice Truck Killer arc, although I did pick the shock 'twist' around episode 8 or whatever. It's not normal for someone to talk that in depth about a love of limbs. The show isn't perfect though. Deb has got to be one of the 25 most annoying characters in TV history. Even when Dexter has just found out that his biological father has just died she has a massive go at him. I'm not a fan of the Ice Truck Killer's ethics, but I would have easily turned a blind eye had he taken care of Deb.
The start of the second season was a little underwhelming, I must admit. Everything seems like it's just building towards something greater, not much is going on right now. One surprising thing has been the evolution of Rita's bitchyness. She's become a real unpleasant person, and you can't help but hope that Dex ends up with fresh new Lyla, who by the way is a great addition to the show. I'm excited for the season on a whole though, and just really excited for the show in general. God's speed Dexter.
On the other side of TV, last night's episode of Fringe was really disappointing. The first episode was fantastic but last night was just dreadful. It was kind of funny the irony of how the storyline about aging and dying unnaturally quickly reflected my interest in the show in general. That's a bit harsh though. Given the strength of the Pilot I've already locked myself in for the first 5 or 6 episodes at least, but beyond that no promises.
Boston Legal remains consistent as ever, Wednesday night's episode a solid contribution to the Boston Legal canon. The problem, and the only real one, with the show is it's inability to produce really good episodes. There's probably only about two or three genuinely fantastic episodes each season (one of season 4's came a week ago). Still though, no complaints from me this is still a brilliant show.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
The NBA, just a month away
September is the greatest month in sports lets face it. The AFL finals series, the NFL and College football get started, the tennis US Open is in full swing and the MLB playoff hunt intensifies then comes to a close. After that though we have the start of the NHL (which I'm going to make an effort to follow) and the NBA in October. I love the NBA. The NBA finals series between Boston and LA was just a really great sporting event, and left me wanting a fair bit more. This might seem a bit early, but much like my new NFL habit, I'm going to evaluate the chances of each team. Here we go...
Eastern Conference
1. Boston Celtics (59 wins)
Got to pay respect to the defending champs. The loss of Posey hurts, as does the aging of the Big Three. I think that the continued improvement of Rondo and Perkins (who looked really good in the playoffs) counters the inevitable decline of the Big Three. For this year at least.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (57 wins)
I think this is the year that Cleveland really elevate themselves to that next tier. LeBron takes further steps to entering the realm of Jordon, and the Mo Williams signing helps this team a lot.
3. Toronto Raptors (49 wins)
I think the Jermaine O'Neal signing works wonders for this team. O'Neal and Bosh in the front court with Calderon running the offense is good for a first round home series in the playoffs. The major drawback of the Raptors is that they don't have any reliable scoring guards. I'm not rapped about the Raptors, but such is the weakness of the East I think this is where they might end up.
4. Orlando Magic (48 wins)
The way the Magic departed from the playoffs and the way Dwight Howard struggled has to be concerning for people in Orlando. They haven't made many strides to improve this offseason either. Point guard is still a worry, but the Magic will earn home court advantage and take the division purely on weight of talent.
5. Detroit Pistons (46 wins)
I think this is the year that the Pistons mini-dynasty begins to end. They'll die a slow death though. There's quality all over the roster, but I'm not sure this team has enough youth or desire to get back to the top of the East.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (43 wins)
I see the Sixers being one of the disappointments of the season. All this talk of them joining the elite could very well go to their heads. This was a workmanlike team that played well above their heads all season. Now that the media says they're good, and with the expectation of winning I think they come back down to Earth.
7. Washington (42 wins)
The perennial 6th-8th Washington Wizards ladies and gentlemen. It must be a bleak existence for Wizards fans. The absolute ceiling of this team is a second round exit. That's the best possible outcome. Sadly enough I don't think Gilbert Arenas' absence in the first month hurts this team that much.
8. Milwaukee (41 wins)
Everyone is talking about the improved East but I don't really buy it. I think Milwaukee will be an average team fighting for .500 all season, but I think they'll make the playoffs in the still lowly East. You can do worse than a Ridnour, Redd, Richardson, Villanueva and Bogut in your starting lineup. There's three quality guys there. Ramon Sessions is fascinating too off the bench.
9. Atlanta (39 wins)
Loved the heart this team showed against the Celtics. Joe Johnson has established himself as a franchise guy, Josh Smith is insanely talented, Al Horford will improve some more and Mike Bibby should provide some stability at point. The problem will be depth.
10. Chicago (37 wins)
I think the Bulls regain their swagger from a couple of years ago. I think Rose has a decent season, and overall the team plays harder than they did last year. They'll be a good hustle team all year, but they have zero frontcourt and that'll stop them from reaching the playoffs.
11. Miami (35 wins)
I don't buy the Miami hype. Yeah, there's Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley. One proven superstar then a number three intangibles guy and a rookie who doesn't play defense. This team has zero depth. The team is entirely dependent on one player, and an injury-prone player at that. If Wade goes down the Heat are a 15 win team again.
12. New York (32 wins)
The Knicks will be improved. I think D'Antoni begins to harness some of the talent of this team. This team has been a solid offensive and terrible defensive team for a while now, and I think D'Antoni takes that and runs with it. Guys like Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford will thrive in this system.
13. Indiana Pacers (31 wins)
Some are talking about the Pacers as a potential playoff team. I really don't see it. I mean, they don't have a system and no real cause for optimism. At best Granger is a number 2 guy, and when Mike Dunleavy is your second best player your in trouble.
14. Charlotte Bobcats (30 wins)
No idea at the direction of this team. Richardson, Wallace and Okafor are all OK players, but none of them are going to front a playoff run. Larry Brown can't do much to help either. Not hard to see the Cats 8-19 and Brown losing it completely.
15. New Jersey (24 wins)
Seems like Jay-Z is betting it all on getting LeBron in 2010. If he doesn't, he's in huge trouble because this team isn't looking in good shape. People are talking about losing Richard Jefferson. They're forgetting that Jersey also lost Marcus Williams, Desanga Diop, Boston Nachbar and Nenad Krystic (all key rotation guys) for virtually nothing. When Yi Jianlian and Josh Boone is your starting frontcourt it's going to be a long year.
Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers (63 wins)
It's scary how well this team is set up for now and the future. Having the best player in the game, and then Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum in the same lineup is frightening for everyone else in the league. The bench with Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, Ariza and Vlad is in great shape too. Full years from Ariza and Bynum will make this team that much better. This team should cruise (now easy task in the West) to the top of the conference. The real test will be of its mental fortitude in the playoffs.
2. Houston Rockets (58 wins)
The only genuine threat to LA. With T-Mac, Yao and Artest the Rockets' upside is scary for the Lakers. They should retain their defensive intensity from last year, and the added scoring punch of Artest makes them almost a lock for home court in the playoffs. In this environment I can't really see Artest imploding either.
3. Utah Jazz (54 wins)
This team needs to figure out how to win on the road. Maybe they should watch some Giants games or something, but something has to happen. If this team can go like .500 on the road, which they definitely should, they're a lock for 50 wins. Deron Williams is one of the elite players in the league, and they're still the toughest team to beat at home.
4. New Orleans (50 wins)
I think New Orleans is in for a bit of a regression. But you can't complain when your regression season still has you at 50 wins. Chris Paul should come back down to Earth a bit, and they didn't really impress in the playoffs against the Spurs. I think that series will do them a lot of good though. They're due for a stiffer run with health this year, and maybe a little less luck, but come the playoffs I think they'll be a harder out.
5. Phoenix Suns (48 wins)
Phoenix's demise has been slightly exaggerated. This team was probably all up about three or four plays from beating Western Conference runners-up San Antonio. Sure Nash and Shaq are older, but people are forgetting just how good Amare was towards the end of last year. I still think they're relevant.
6. Dallas Mavericks (48 wins)
They'll be improved from last year's debacle. A full season of Jason Kidd in the system will help the offense, and hopefully they've sorted out a few of their mental issues. I doubt they'll be back up to the top of the league, but they'll have a say in the playoffs.
7. San Antonio (47 wins)
Tim Duncan's getting older, Tony Parker took a huge step backwards last year and Manu Ginobili is already injured and no sure bet for the season. I don't think San Antonio are the 7th best team in the West, they're better than that. But as far as getting through 82 tough regular season games, they'll have the seventh best record in the West when all is said and done or thereabouts. Come playoff season though, they'll have a decent shot.
8. Portland Trailblazers (45 wins)
So much pressure on this team. I think they live up to expectations. Roy is a stud, and if Oden is three quarters the guy everyone says he is then the Blazers will be an almost sure thing for the playoffs. Love the way they hustle.
9. Los Angeles Clippers (40 wins)
Easily the most interesting team in the NBA. With all the controversy in the offseason and all the comings and goings this team is going to be a wild ride all season. Baron, Thornton and Gordon are three big offensive weapons, Kaman is solid down low and Camby will be a presence as always. Playoffs is not beyond them.
10. Golden State Warriors (35 wins)
No Baron, no Monta (for a while), no playoffs for the Warriors. Baron was the heart of this team, and it's hard to see the Warriors even flirting with .500 without Ellis for the first month or so. One bad month in the West will see your playoff hopes go down the drain.
11. Sacramento Kings (32 wins)
Strikes me as a team that on the surface is pretty mediocre but overachieves a little. Kevin Martin is a gun, and he's surrounded by a lot of OK players. Nothing special will abound from this team, but they're not going to embarass themselves.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (31 wins)
The future is brighter for the Wolves than it has been for a while. At least now they have some direction. Got to Love the Love and Jefferson frontcourt tandem. They'll make solid progress this year.
13. Denver Nuggets (29 wins)
Here's my big tip for the 08/09 season - the Denver Nuggets completely implode. I'm talking about punch-ons, consistent 138-114 losses and the trade of Allen Iverson at mid-season. I think it all goes to hell.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (27 wins)
A team that knows a little about hell are the players stuck on the Memphis Grizzlies. Another lottery pick awaits.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (24 wins)
The Thunder will be stuck in the lottery for quite a while. I'm sure the people of Oklahoma City will be rapt to see any sort of pro basketball (or pro sport for that matter) and Durant will be a huge buzz. They probably won't even care about winning or losing, they'll just be thrilled to watch some basketball. That's a good thing because the Thunder will be doing a lot of losing.
Championship: At this stage you can't go past the Lakers. You've got to figure with the youth and Bynum the Lakers will only get better, while the Celtics might be on the decline.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston Celtics (59 wins)
Got to pay respect to the defending champs. The loss of Posey hurts, as does the aging of the Big Three. I think that the continued improvement of Rondo and Perkins (who looked really good in the playoffs) counters the inevitable decline of the Big Three. For this year at least.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (57 wins)
I think this is the year that Cleveland really elevate themselves to that next tier. LeBron takes further steps to entering the realm of Jordon, and the Mo Williams signing helps this team a lot.
3. Toronto Raptors (49 wins)
I think the Jermaine O'Neal signing works wonders for this team. O'Neal and Bosh in the front court with Calderon running the offense is good for a first round home series in the playoffs. The major drawback of the Raptors is that they don't have any reliable scoring guards. I'm not rapped about the Raptors, but such is the weakness of the East I think this is where they might end up.
4. Orlando Magic (48 wins)
The way the Magic departed from the playoffs and the way Dwight Howard struggled has to be concerning for people in Orlando. They haven't made many strides to improve this offseason either. Point guard is still a worry, but the Magic will earn home court advantage and take the division purely on weight of talent.
5. Detroit Pistons (46 wins)
I think this is the year that the Pistons mini-dynasty begins to end. They'll die a slow death though. There's quality all over the roster, but I'm not sure this team has enough youth or desire to get back to the top of the East.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (43 wins)
I see the Sixers being one of the disappointments of the season. All this talk of them joining the elite could very well go to their heads. This was a workmanlike team that played well above their heads all season. Now that the media says they're good, and with the expectation of winning I think they come back down to Earth.
7. Washington (42 wins)
The perennial 6th-8th Washington Wizards ladies and gentlemen. It must be a bleak existence for Wizards fans. The absolute ceiling of this team is a second round exit. That's the best possible outcome. Sadly enough I don't think Gilbert Arenas' absence in the first month hurts this team that much.
8. Milwaukee (41 wins)
Everyone is talking about the improved East but I don't really buy it. I think Milwaukee will be an average team fighting for .500 all season, but I think they'll make the playoffs in the still lowly East. You can do worse than a Ridnour, Redd, Richardson, Villanueva and Bogut in your starting lineup. There's three quality guys there. Ramon Sessions is fascinating too off the bench.
9. Atlanta (39 wins)
Loved the heart this team showed against the Celtics. Joe Johnson has established himself as a franchise guy, Josh Smith is insanely talented, Al Horford will improve some more and Mike Bibby should provide some stability at point. The problem will be depth.
10. Chicago (37 wins)
I think the Bulls regain their swagger from a couple of years ago. I think Rose has a decent season, and overall the team plays harder than they did last year. They'll be a good hustle team all year, but they have zero frontcourt and that'll stop them from reaching the playoffs.
11. Miami (35 wins)
I don't buy the Miami hype. Yeah, there's Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley. One proven superstar then a number three intangibles guy and a rookie who doesn't play defense. This team has zero depth. The team is entirely dependent on one player, and an injury-prone player at that. If Wade goes down the Heat are a 15 win team again.
12. New York (32 wins)
The Knicks will be improved. I think D'Antoni begins to harness some of the talent of this team. This team has been a solid offensive and terrible defensive team for a while now, and I think D'Antoni takes that and runs with it. Guys like Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford will thrive in this system.
13. Indiana Pacers (31 wins)
Some are talking about the Pacers as a potential playoff team. I really don't see it. I mean, they don't have a system and no real cause for optimism. At best Granger is a number 2 guy, and when Mike Dunleavy is your second best player your in trouble.
14. Charlotte Bobcats (30 wins)
No idea at the direction of this team. Richardson, Wallace and Okafor are all OK players, but none of them are going to front a playoff run. Larry Brown can't do much to help either. Not hard to see the Cats 8-19 and Brown losing it completely.
15. New Jersey (24 wins)
Seems like Jay-Z is betting it all on getting LeBron in 2010. If he doesn't, he's in huge trouble because this team isn't looking in good shape. People are talking about losing Richard Jefferson. They're forgetting that Jersey also lost Marcus Williams, Desanga Diop, Boston Nachbar and Nenad Krystic (all key rotation guys) for virtually nothing. When Yi Jianlian and Josh Boone is your starting frontcourt it's going to be a long year.
Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers (63 wins)
It's scary how well this team is set up for now and the future. Having the best player in the game, and then Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum in the same lineup is frightening for everyone else in the league. The bench with Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, Ariza and Vlad is in great shape too. Full years from Ariza and Bynum will make this team that much better. This team should cruise (now easy task in the West) to the top of the conference. The real test will be of its mental fortitude in the playoffs.
2. Houston Rockets (58 wins)
The only genuine threat to LA. With T-Mac, Yao and Artest the Rockets' upside is scary for the Lakers. They should retain their defensive intensity from last year, and the added scoring punch of Artest makes them almost a lock for home court in the playoffs. In this environment I can't really see Artest imploding either.
3. Utah Jazz (54 wins)
This team needs to figure out how to win on the road. Maybe they should watch some Giants games or something, but something has to happen. If this team can go like .500 on the road, which they definitely should, they're a lock for 50 wins. Deron Williams is one of the elite players in the league, and they're still the toughest team to beat at home.
4. New Orleans (50 wins)
I think New Orleans is in for a bit of a regression. But you can't complain when your regression season still has you at 50 wins. Chris Paul should come back down to Earth a bit, and they didn't really impress in the playoffs against the Spurs. I think that series will do them a lot of good though. They're due for a stiffer run with health this year, and maybe a little less luck, but come the playoffs I think they'll be a harder out.
5. Phoenix Suns (48 wins)
Phoenix's demise has been slightly exaggerated. This team was probably all up about three or four plays from beating Western Conference runners-up San Antonio. Sure Nash and Shaq are older, but people are forgetting just how good Amare was towards the end of last year. I still think they're relevant.
6. Dallas Mavericks (48 wins)
They'll be improved from last year's debacle. A full season of Jason Kidd in the system will help the offense, and hopefully they've sorted out a few of their mental issues. I doubt they'll be back up to the top of the league, but they'll have a say in the playoffs.
7. San Antonio (47 wins)
Tim Duncan's getting older, Tony Parker took a huge step backwards last year and Manu Ginobili is already injured and no sure bet for the season. I don't think San Antonio are the 7th best team in the West, they're better than that. But as far as getting through 82 tough regular season games, they'll have the seventh best record in the West when all is said and done or thereabouts. Come playoff season though, they'll have a decent shot.
8. Portland Trailblazers (45 wins)
So much pressure on this team. I think they live up to expectations. Roy is a stud, and if Oden is three quarters the guy everyone says he is then the Blazers will be an almost sure thing for the playoffs. Love the way they hustle.
9. Los Angeles Clippers (40 wins)
Easily the most interesting team in the NBA. With all the controversy in the offseason and all the comings and goings this team is going to be a wild ride all season. Baron, Thornton and Gordon are three big offensive weapons, Kaman is solid down low and Camby will be a presence as always. Playoffs is not beyond them.
10. Golden State Warriors (35 wins)
No Baron, no Monta (for a while), no playoffs for the Warriors. Baron was the heart of this team, and it's hard to see the Warriors even flirting with .500 without Ellis for the first month or so. One bad month in the West will see your playoff hopes go down the drain.
11. Sacramento Kings (32 wins)
Strikes me as a team that on the surface is pretty mediocre but overachieves a little. Kevin Martin is a gun, and he's surrounded by a lot of OK players. Nothing special will abound from this team, but they're not going to embarass themselves.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (31 wins)
The future is brighter for the Wolves than it has been for a while. At least now they have some direction. Got to Love the Love and Jefferson frontcourt tandem. They'll make solid progress this year.
13. Denver Nuggets (29 wins)
Here's my big tip for the 08/09 season - the Denver Nuggets completely implode. I'm talking about punch-ons, consistent 138-114 losses and the trade of Allen Iverson at mid-season. I think it all goes to hell.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (27 wins)
A team that knows a little about hell are the players stuck on the Memphis Grizzlies. Another lottery pick awaits.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (24 wins)
The Thunder will be stuck in the lottery for quite a while. I'm sure the people of Oklahoma City will be rapt to see any sort of pro basketball (or pro sport for that matter) and Durant will be a huge buzz. They probably won't even care about winning or losing, they'll just be thrilled to watch some basketball. That's a good thing because the Thunder will be doing a lot of losing.
Championship: At this stage you can't go past the Lakers. You've got to figure with the youth and Bynum the Lakers will only get better, while the Celtics might be on the decline.
The round ball game... no, the OTHER round ball game
My favourite sport in the world is Aussie rules football. I think when you factor in all the physical and athletic attributes required to play the game, the mental strength required and the aesthetic appeal of the game with its pace just make it the best sport in the world. Second in my eyes is the American version of football. What I love about American football is that each position is filled by a different type of athlete, and each position needs different attributes. Running back requires vision, instinct, explosiveness, strength and evasiveness. Guard and tackle need core and upper strength. Quarterback needs peripheral vision, decision making and a bullet arm, etc, etc. Combine that with the fascinating and endless supply of tactics, and American football is a truly remarkable sport. What slows it down though is the fact that it is, well, kind of slow. The stop start nature of the sport, and the endless ad-breaks that need to be taken just ruin the flow of the sport. I'd have our code of football higher than the American one anyway, but the time consuming nature of the game only hurts its cause.
I've been thinking about what my third favourite sport in the world is. I'm sure it used to be cricket, but I just can't muster up any enthusiasm for the sport anymore. Too long, too many spells of nothingness. Amazingly, and very un-Australian of me, I prefer baseball to cricket. I love statistics, and baseball is just dominated by them. If ever you could reduce a person or group of people to a set of numbers it's in baseball. Bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, down by 2 has got to be the most exciting situation in all of the sports just about. The problem is the lack of action and its hard to sustain enthusiasm over 9 innings. Nonetheless I'm a fan of the sport.
The less said about Soccer the better. The Italian soccer team from the 2006 World Cup has officialy decimated by faith in the world game. Tennis has risen lately because of the Nadal-Federer rivalry. The problem is though, unless it is Nadal v Federer I'm probably not going to watch the match. Rugby blah. Hockey blah. Golf blah. My third favourite sport in the world is now basketball. These guys (in my opinion) are the best athletes in the world. LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are just the best overall athletes in the world. Tall, strong, fast, co-ordinated, explosive, mentally tough. These guys have it all. What I love also is the versatility of the game these days. It's kind of inspiring to see an awkward looking small white guy from Canada to be rated the best player in the NBA for two years running. Point guard has developed into my favourite position in all of sports just about. What I love most about basketball and the NBA is this - more than any other team sport, on every night there is the potential for one guy absolutely take over a match. It was Game 5 of the Lakers-Spurs Western Conference Finals where Kobe Bryant absolutely took over the match and won purely because he wanted to. More than any other sport, basketball has the ability for one single guy to elevate his teammates to a higher place. In my eyes that's what sport is all about.
I've been thinking about what my third favourite sport in the world is. I'm sure it used to be cricket, but I just can't muster up any enthusiasm for the sport anymore. Too long, too many spells of nothingness. Amazingly, and very un-Australian of me, I prefer baseball to cricket. I love statistics, and baseball is just dominated by them. If ever you could reduce a person or group of people to a set of numbers it's in baseball. Bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, down by 2 has got to be the most exciting situation in all of the sports just about. The problem is the lack of action and its hard to sustain enthusiasm over 9 innings. Nonetheless I'm a fan of the sport.
The less said about Soccer the better. The Italian soccer team from the 2006 World Cup has officialy decimated by faith in the world game. Tennis has risen lately because of the Nadal-Federer rivalry. The problem is though, unless it is Nadal v Federer I'm probably not going to watch the match. Rugby blah. Hockey blah. Golf blah. My third favourite sport in the world is now basketball. These guys (in my opinion) are the best athletes in the world. LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are just the best overall athletes in the world. Tall, strong, fast, co-ordinated, explosive, mentally tough. These guys have it all. What I love also is the versatility of the game these days. It's kind of inspiring to see an awkward looking small white guy from Canada to be rated the best player in the NBA for two years running. Point guard has developed into my favourite position in all of sports just about. What I love most about basketball and the NBA is this - more than any other team sport, on every night there is the potential for one guy absolutely take over a match. It was Game 5 of the Lakers-Spurs Western Conference Finals where Kobe Bryant absolutely took over the match and won purely because he wanted to. More than any other sport, basketball has the ability for one single guy to elevate his teammates to a higher place. In my eyes that's what sport is all about.
Fading powers
With football season winding down (yes I will post that Collingwood 2008 review... eventually) I haven't posted as frequently as I would have liked to. For the record...
-My tips last week were Geelong and St. Kilda. I thought that the Saints would be riding the Robert Harvey factor and the Hawks had no one for Riewoldt. I forget to factor in the fact that Hawthorn are a good football team and St. Kilda are not.
-Geelong almost choked away a second preliminary final in two years. The fact that the Bulldogs (far from a great team) could have won the match if only they kicked straight is a blemish on Geelong's quality. We learnt a lot about both teams last night. The Bulldogs are still somewhat of a joke of the club. Robert Murphy and Will Minson should be haunted by that game for months. The Cats are not in the same league as the 1999-2001 Bombers or the 2001-2004 Lions. They may indeed be more talented, but they lack the mentality and killer instinct of those two teams. Similarly to the performance against Collingwood last year the Cats on Friday night played purely not to lose. That is not the mentality of a champion team.
-Is it safe to say Luke Hodge is now the greatest spiritual leader of a football team in 20 years?
-My tip for the Brownlow was Simon Black and the umpires nearly made me look like a genius. I'm not happy with Cooney taking out the award. Black and Ablett are two absolute champions of the game who give all they have every single match. Adam Cooney can be shut out of games on a regular basis.
-Full credit to Paul Medhurst on his All Australian selection and 12 brownlow votes. Well deserved.
-Had Matthew Richardson won the Brownlow, well... my faith in humanity would have taken a significant hit.
ANYWAY, moving on. As I said, the footy season is winding down. To fill the time until we get going again I'll be looking at other sports. In my mind, factoring in everything American football is the second greatest sport in the world. The NFL season has now well and truly kicked off. I started really taking a keen interest in the NFL in the playoff season of 2006/07. The first game I really watched was the now famous playoff game where Seattle beat Dallas 21-20 after Tony Romo let the game go in the final minute. It was an amazing match, and not long after I watched the incredible match between Indianapolis and New England and I was well and truly hooked on the sport. I'm a New York Giants fan, and I was absolutely thrilled watching their Super Bowl campaign last year, which features three amazing matches in a row.
My plan for the NFL season is this. On Monday or Tuesday I'll write about my thoughts on the weekend's happenings, and then rate who at that particular stage who the playoff teams of the season will be. On Friday, Saturday or Sunday I will give some predictions for the upcoming matches. Anyway, here we go...
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (3-0)
It's amazing really that Tennessee can be the best team in the AFC. What happened to perennial super powers New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and up and comers Jacksonville and Cleveland? They've all fallen flat on their faces and old (or young) reliable Tennessee has been the most consistently impressive team in the conference. The defense has been the best in the league, the running game has been terrific and Kerry Collins has provided stability at QB. The season may hinge on how the Vince Young situation is handled.
2. Buffalo Bills (3-0)
Much like Tennessee in that they aren't that flashy, they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards are fast establishing themselves as top players at their respective positions. The defense has been stout, and despite only beating the lowly Raiders (or perhaps not so lowly after back to back impressive performances) by a single point they gave their strongest indication that they will be a contender this year - they managed to pull out a win even when they weren't playing the well, perhaps the greatest mark of a good team.
3. San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Patriots have lost Brady, Colts have lost a lot too, but the Chargers don't have that excuse. Well they do have a greater excuse, the fact that they were genuinely robbed of victory by the ref in Denver, but that was still a match they should have won. The offense is still absolute dynamite. LT is still the best back in the business, and Darren Sproles amazingly isn't too far behind - this guy is extraordinary. Phillip Rivers has taken the next step. The defense creates turnovers, but has been terrible so far. Conceding something like 90 points over three games will not get it done. Sure they could easily be 3-0, but that defense needs to improve dramatically if they're to be taken really seriously.
4. Denver Broncos (3-0)
I need to establish that these rankings aren't to state what I believe the final standings will be - they're to show who I believe has the best shot at making the Super Bowl. At this stage, I still think San Diego are a better team than Denver. And Tennessee and Buffalo more together than the Broncos. They may have the best offense in the league but the defense isn't far from the worst. They will struggle in big matches against good defensive teams. I still think they'll win the division though.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
These last two spots are really difficult to figure. I went with Pittsburgh here because I figure that they'll get out of the uninspiring AFC North without too much difficulty. The defense is solid, and the offense with Big Ben, Fast Willie and the Ward/Holmes combo is pretty good. The question will be whether all of this is good enough to counter the genuinely shocking offensive line they have going.
6. New England Patriots (2-1)
Indy and Jacksonville seem too banged up so I'm going with the Patriots here, despite the incredible showing against Miami. Incredible in the worst possible sense of the word. I don't think the game was a total abberation, but you could make an argument that it was simply too bad and too wacky to be true. Cassell has to go. The Patriots need a veteran Kerry Collins-like QB to manage the offense. The offense right now with these dinky slant passes looks impotent. The difference between the Patriots making the playoffs and being on the outside looking in will depend on someone having the ability to get the long ball to Randy Moss. They get in the playoffs based on their incredibly easy schedule.
On the outside looking in:
Jacksonville: Brave performance against the Colts. Saved their season with good hustle, some luck and a guy named Scobee. I still think that offensive line and the team altogether is too banged up to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis: Also too banged up. Run defense has been a joke all season and the supposedly superhuman Manning/Addai/Wayne/Harrison/Gonzales offense is averaging just 17 points a game.
Baltimore: I don't buy it. Defense might get them 8 wins this season, but the offense and Joe Flacco don't exactly inspire. Look for Pittsburgh to embarrass them this Monday night.
New York Jets: Were embarrassed today by San Diego. What's more embarrassing though is the fact that they lost to a team at home that lost to Miami by 25 (which by the way they were lucky to beat in the first place. Jets looking more and more like a 6-10 team, and Favre looks his age.
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
No arguments here I hope. The best team in football and then some. The defense doesn't look that special, but with an offense like this ala Patriots 07 it's not going to matter. Put it this way - Brady/Maroney/Faulk/Moss/Welker/Watson or Romo/Barber/Jones/Owens/Crayton/Witten? The fact that you at least have to think long and hard about it just goes to show exactly how good these Cowboys are. I'm not about to put forward a case for a perfect season though. Romo might have the talent but he doesn't have close to the composure of Brady.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Eagles have played two quality opponents the past two weeks and have come up big both times. Any doubts about the defense after the Dallas match are just about non-existent now after they absolutely raped Big Ben and the Steelers. Next week against Chicago will be interesting, we'll see how they stack up against a really good defense.
3. New York Giants (3-0)
There's a much different feel to this Giants team this year than to last year. Last year they played with desperation, this year they're playing with composure. It's not a great ball club, but it's an all round solid team. The defense has proven that it can get the job done, and Eli Manning is showing postseason form early on. They'll go into the bye week full of confidence. When they come back they'll have games against Seatlle, @Cleveland and then home to San Francisco. They should actually find themselves 7-0. They're going to need that buffer because after that light stretch they go @Pittsburgh, Dallas and @Philadelphia. Good times.
4. Green Bay (2-1)
Despite the letdown against Dallas you still have to like this team. Say what you want but Aaron Rodgers is having a much better season than Brett Favre to this pont. Greg Jennings has established himself as a force, they just need Ryan Grant to do the same. Smells like an 11-5 team to me.
5. Carolina Panthers (2-1)
I wouldn't be too fazed with the Minnesota loss. That was a team that desperately needed to win. I still really like this team. Jake Delhomme is a quality QB, the receiving corps with Steve Smith back are very good and Jonathan Stewart will only continue to develop. With an easy schedule and home games against Atlanta and Kansas City coming up the Panthers are a near lock for 4-1 and should take the NFC South with relative ease.
6. San Fransisco 49ers (2-1)
Why not? Someone has to come out of the dreadful West, and the 49ers are in as good shape as everyone. The Seahawks are banged up, the Cardinals aren't anything inspiring and the Rams aren't going anywhere fast. The defense isn't too shabby, Frank Gore has been great and JT O'Sullivan is actually a decent QB. I watched him against Seattle last weekend and he looked really good. Sure they'll probably get murdered in the first round of the playoffs, but they're a good shot to be there.
On the outside looking in:
Minnesota: I like Green Bay more. The Packers and Vikings are a dead heat on defense but the Packers have a much better passing game, the best upside wildcard guy of the two teams (Grant) and seemingly a lot more heart. The Vikes might go 9-7 or even 10-6 but such is the structure of the playoffs the 7-9 49ers might edge them out.
Tampa Bay: Sure the defense is great again and they have a knack of beating the teams they should beat, but much like Minnesota I just prefer another team in their division. The Panthers are a better all round team, and such is the quality (and schedule in one team's case) of the Eagles and Giants I see the Wild Cards locked up already.
Chicago: Harsh as it may seem, the Bears season might have ended with those losses against Carolina and Tampa. Leading as deep as they led, and at home, those are games you absolutely have to win.
New Orleans: The loss of Colston and now Shockey is too devastating for a team that relies solely on its offense to win matches. A disappointing 7-9 season coming up.
Super Bowl pick: Still has to be Dallas. Unless Indy suddenly gets healthy, San Diego gets its defensive act together or Tom Brady's knee is touched by god I think it's safe to say that for all intents and purposes the Super Bowl will be played a couple weeks early in the NFC Championship game. As we stand I'd favour Philly and the Giants over any AFC team. And I fancy Dallas over both of them.
-My tips last week were Geelong and St. Kilda. I thought that the Saints would be riding the Robert Harvey factor and the Hawks had no one for Riewoldt. I forget to factor in the fact that Hawthorn are a good football team and St. Kilda are not.
-Geelong almost choked away a second preliminary final in two years. The fact that the Bulldogs (far from a great team) could have won the match if only they kicked straight is a blemish on Geelong's quality. We learnt a lot about both teams last night. The Bulldogs are still somewhat of a joke of the club. Robert Murphy and Will Minson should be haunted by that game for months. The Cats are not in the same league as the 1999-2001 Bombers or the 2001-2004 Lions. They may indeed be more talented, but they lack the mentality and killer instinct of those two teams. Similarly to the performance against Collingwood last year the Cats on Friday night played purely not to lose. That is not the mentality of a champion team.
-Is it safe to say Luke Hodge is now the greatest spiritual leader of a football team in 20 years?
-My tip for the Brownlow was Simon Black and the umpires nearly made me look like a genius. I'm not happy with Cooney taking out the award. Black and Ablett are two absolute champions of the game who give all they have every single match. Adam Cooney can be shut out of games on a regular basis.
-Full credit to Paul Medhurst on his All Australian selection and 12 brownlow votes. Well deserved.
-Had Matthew Richardson won the Brownlow, well... my faith in humanity would have taken a significant hit.
ANYWAY, moving on. As I said, the footy season is winding down. To fill the time until we get going again I'll be looking at other sports. In my mind, factoring in everything American football is the second greatest sport in the world. The NFL season has now well and truly kicked off. I started really taking a keen interest in the NFL in the playoff season of 2006/07. The first game I really watched was the now famous playoff game where Seattle beat Dallas 21-20 after Tony Romo let the game go in the final minute. It was an amazing match, and not long after I watched the incredible match between Indianapolis and New England and I was well and truly hooked on the sport. I'm a New York Giants fan, and I was absolutely thrilled watching their Super Bowl campaign last year, which features three amazing matches in a row.
My plan for the NFL season is this. On Monday or Tuesday I'll write about my thoughts on the weekend's happenings, and then rate who at that particular stage who the playoff teams of the season will be. On Friday, Saturday or Sunday I will give some predictions for the upcoming matches. Anyway, here we go...
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (3-0)
It's amazing really that Tennessee can be the best team in the AFC. What happened to perennial super powers New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and up and comers Jacksonville and Cleveland? They've all fallen flat on their faces and old (or young) reliable Tennessee has been the most consistently impressive team in the conference. The defense has been the best in the league, the running game has been terrific and Kerry Collins has provided stability at QB. The season may hinge on how the Vince Young situation is handled.
2. Buffalo Bills (3-0)
Much like Tennessee in that they aren't that flashy, they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards are fast establishing themselves as top players at their respective positions. The defense has been stout, and despite only beating the lowly Raiders (or perhaps not so lowly after back to back impressive performances) by a single point they gave their strongest indication that they will be a contender this year - they managed to pull out a win even when they weren't playing the well, perhaps the greatest mark of a good team.
3. San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Patriots have lost Brady, Colts have lost a lot too, but the Chargers don't have that excuse. Well they do have a greater excuse, the fact that they were genuinely robbed of victory by the ref in Denver, but that was still a match they should have won. The offense is still absolute dynamite. LT is still the best back in the business, and Darren Sproles amazingly isn't too far behind - this guy is extraordinary. Phillip Rivers has taken the next step. The defense creates turnovers, but has been terrible so far. Conceding something like 90 points over three games will not get it done. Sure they could easily be 3-0, but that defense needs to improve dramatically if they're to be taken really seriously.
4. Denver Broncos (3-0)
I need to establish that these rankings aren't to state what I believe the final standings will be - they're to show who I believe has the best shot at making the Super Bowl. At this stage, I still think San Diego are a better team than Denver. And Tennessee and Buffalo more together than the Broncos. They may have the best offense in the league but the defense isn't far from the worst. They will struggle in big matches against good defensive teams. I still think they'll win the division though.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
These last two spots are really difficult to figure. I went with Pittsburgh here because I figure that they'll get out of the uninspiring AFC North without too much difficulty. The defense is solid, and the offense with Big Ben, Fast Willie and the Ward/Holmes combo is pretty good. The question will be whether all of this is good enough to counter the genuinely shocking offensive line they have going.
6. New England Patriots (2-1)
Indy and Jacksonville seem too banged up so I'm going with the Patriots here, despite the incredible showing against Miami. Incredible in the worst possible sense of the word. I don't think the game was a total abberation, but you could make an argument that it was simply too bad and too wacky to be true. Cassell has to go. The Patriots need a veteran Kerry Collins-like QB to manage the offense. The offense right now with these dinky slant passes looks impotent. The difference between the Patriots making the playoffs and being on the outside looking in will depend on someone having the ability to get the long ball to Randy Moss. They get in the playoffs based on their incredibly easy schedule.
On the outside looking in:
Jacksonville: Brave performance against the Colts. Saved their season with good hustle, some luck and a guy named Scobee. I still think that offensive line and the team altogether is too banged up to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis: Also too banged up. Run defense has been a joke all season and the supposedly superhuman Manning/Addai/Wayne/Harrison/Gonzales offense is averaging just 17 points a game.
Baltimore: I don't buy it. Defense might get them 8 wins this season, but the offense and Joe Flacco don't exactly inspire. Look for Pittsburgh to embarrass them this Monday night.
New York Jets: Were embarrassed today by San Diego. What's more embarrassing though is the fact that they lost to a team at home that lost to Miami by 25 (which by the way they were lucky to beat in the first place. Jets looking more and more like a 6-10 team, and Favre looks his age.
NFC
1. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
No arguments here I hope. The best team in football and then some. The defense doesn't look that special, but with an offense like this ala Patriots 07 it's not going to matter. Put it this way - Brady/Maroney/Faulk/Moss/Welker/Watson or Romo/Barber/Jones/Owens/Crayton/Witten? The fact that you at least have to think long and hard about it just goes to show exactly how good these Cowboys are. I'm not about to put forward a case for a perfect season though. Romo might have the talent but he doesn't have close to the composure of Brady.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Eagles have played two quality opponents the past two weeks and have come up big both times. Any doubts about the defense after the Dallas match are just about non-existent now after they absolutely raped Big Ben and the Steelers. Next week against Chicago will be interesting, we'll see how they stack up against a really good defense.
3. New York Giants (3-0)
There's a much different feel to this Giants team this year than to last year. Last year they played with desperation, this year they're playing with composure. It's not a great ball club, but it's an all round solid team. The defense has proven that it can get the job done, and Eli Manning is showing postseason form early on. They'll go into the bye week full of confidence. When they come back they'll have games against Seatlle, @Cleveland and then home to San Francisco. They should actually find themselves 7-0. They're going to need that buffer because after that light stretch they go @Pittsburgh, Dallas and @Philadelphia. Good times.
4. Green Bay (2-1)
Despite the letdown against Dallas you still have to like this team. Say what you want but Aaron Rodgers is having a much better season than Brett Favre to this pont. Greg Jennings has established himself as a force, they just need Ryan Grant to do the same. Smells like an 11-5 team to me.
5. Carolina Panthers (2-1)
I wouldn't be too fazed with the Minnesota loss. That was a team that desperately needed to win. I still really like this team. Jake Delhomme is a quality QB, the receiving corps with Steve Smith back are very good and Jonathan Stewart will only continue to develop. With an easy schedule and home games against Atlanta and Kansas City coming up the Panthers are a near lock for 4-1 and should take the NFC South with relative ease.
6. San Fransisco 49ers (2-1)
Why not? Someone has to come out of the dreadful West, and the 49ers are in as good shape as everyone. The Seahawks are banged up, the Cardinals aren't anything inspiring and the Rams aren't going anywhere fast. The defense isn't too shabby, Frank Gore has been great and JT O'Sullivan is actually a decent QB. I watched him against Seattle last weekend and he looked really good. Sure they'll probably get murdered in the first round of the playoffs, but they're a good shot to be there.
On the outside looking in:
Minnesota: I like Green Bay more. The Packers and Vikings are a dead heat on defense but the Packers have a much better passing game, the best upside wildcard guy of the two teams (Grant) and seemingly a lot more heart. The Vikes might go 9-7 or even 10-6 but such is the structure of the playoffs the 7-9 49ers might edge them out.
Tampa Bay: Sure the defense is great again and they have a knack of beating the teams they should beat, but much like Minnesota I just prefer another team in their division. The Panthers are a better all round team, and such is the quality (and schedule in one team's case) of the Eagles and Giants I see the Wild Cards locked up already.
Chicago: Harsh as it may seem, the Bears season might have ended with those losses against Carolina and Tampa. Leading as deep as they led, and at home, those are games you absolutely have to win.
New Orleans: The loss of Colston and now Shockey is too devastating for a team that relies solely on its offense to win matches. A disappointing 7-9 season coming up.
Super Bowl pick: Still has to be Dallas. Unless Indy suddenly gets healthy, San Diego gets its defensive act together or Tom Brady's knee is touched by god I think it's safe to say that for all intents and purposes the Super Bowl will be played a couple weeks early in the NFC Championship game. As we stand I'd favour Philly and the Giants over any AFC team. And I fancy Dallas over both of them.
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