1st Qualifying Final: Geelong vs. St Kilda

Really hard to see the Saints getting over the line here. The midfield and defence just seems to slow and they don't have any obvious candidate to go with Ablett. You get the sense that Riewoldt is going to have to kick 6 or 7 for the Saints to have a chance. The wildcard here though is the Robert Harvey factor. There's that outside chance that the Saints get inspired for Harvey and give a performance for the ages. It's a stretch but that's the Saints' best hope really. Interesting of course from a Collingwood perspective as we'll be playing the loser (St. Kilda). We matchup better with the Cats, but obviously you take the 13-9 team over one of the greatest teams of all time. Hard to barrack for either team, so I'll be barracking for broken legs and overtime. Go Pies.

Update: Lots of rain forecast. Not sure who this favours, I guess anything that brings the match closer has to favour the Saints. Still sticking by the Cats, but I'm revising my prediction to Geelong 97 St. Kilda 64

FIRST QUARTER

Play clock 19 minutes: Interesting matchups to start - Gram on Ablett, Ling on Dal Santo. In these conditions I don't think Dal Santo's going to have much on an impact anyway. Stick Ling on clearance king Lenny Hayes. I like the Gram on Ablett matchup though, not sure why, I just do.
17 minutes: Three dropped marks to Riewoldt already. None gimmes, but he could have taken all of them. Jitters?
15 minutes: Schneider gets the first goal, Saints looking solid.
14 minutes: Hayes gives away a free kick and Chapman slots it from about 45 out. Underrated player, one of the best in the league really.
13 minutes: James Blake just rushed a behind with his fist from about 15 metres out from goal. With the momentum of the ball and the heaviness that is not an easy thing to do. By the way Steve Johnson has made about 4 errors so far.
8 minutes: Brent Prismall has done his knee, probably his season over. Good timing for the Saints, something to halt Geelong's momentum.
7 minutes: Cam Mooney kicks a goal and that's 19-6. Cats looking light years ahead of the Saints. Commentators are discussing if playing 21 on 22 the rest of the match will affect the Cats. The short answer is no. The Cats would beat St. Kilda with 17 fit men. They actually would.
6 minutes: James Bartel is raping St. Kilda. Amassing disposal after disposal, and he slots a goal from the boundary to make it 25-6. The Saints haven't got it past the centre line in almost 5 minutes. This is going to be ugly.
5 minutes: Ross Lyon seems resigned to his team's fate. Riewoldt's having a shocker.
4 minutes: Prismall update: he's fine. Commentators overblow injuries way too often.
2 minutes: Harry Taylor is killing Riewoldt. Conditions definitely favouring Geelong. Geelong = Hard, Saints = Soft. That's only been maximised by the weather.

QUARTER TIME

10 scoring shots to 2 tells the tale. Saints had a good opening 5 minutes, and a solid final 5 minutes. Everything in between was Geelong domination. Cats failed to take their chances in front of goal, but I've got a feeling that's not going to matter.

SECOND QUARTER

14 minutes: This Cats team really is amazing. It's said so often, but it's true. They've got all these stars Gary Ablett, James Bartel, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling, Cameron Mooney, Matthew Scarlett, Corey Enright, Tom Harley, Darren Milburn, Brad Ottens. But they're so good that they have these second or third string players like Harry Taylor can step up and assert himself on a match in a big way. Taylor's just about been best on ground today.
13 minutes: Milne snaps a goal to make it 31-14. It gives the Saints life but it's not going to matter.
11 minutes: Riewoldt is pulling a Cloke and having the worst match of his life just when his team needs him most. The difference is Collingwood could afford Cloke's poor match, there's no doubt that the Saints can't afford Riewoldt to keep on playing like this.
9 minutes: Riewoldt is greeted with a Bronx cheer as he finally holds an overhead mark.
8 minutes: Shocking passage of play in St. Kilda's defence right there. St. Kilda defender kicks an uncontested ball into the man on the mark, Sam Fisher follows up by spraying a kick out on the full. Mooney makes them pay with a goal and that's 46-14. Pretty much game over now.
6 minutes: Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Harvey is a nice midfield, but Bartel, Ablett, Corey and Ling are making them look bad. Very bad. Jimmy Bartel is playing out of his skin.
4 minutes: Ottens, a guy everyone seems to forget about, slots his second after a pinpoint pass from Joel Corey. 52-14.
1 minute: Geelong's tackling has been sensational. Maybe Collingwood taught them something.

HALF TIME

52-20 is flattering for St. Kilda. In every possible area, except luck, Geelong has beaten the Saints. No conceiveible way that St. Kilda come back in this one. Geelong going harder at the contest, creating more space, and just in general playing smarter football. Jimmy Bartel is reminding everyone that he's the Brownlow medallist, not Gary Ablett. Bartel's first half has been amazing. The fact is this. Nick Riewoldt is a champion, a player that can hold his head high even amongst Geelong's elite (although not today). Then there is no one. You can't tell me that Lenny Hayes or Nick Dal Santo is as good as Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Scarlett, Ling, Johnson or Selwood. Hayes and Dal Santo are the Saints' 2nd and 3rd best players, yet they'd only cut it with Geelong's 2nd stringers. When you've got 7 of the best 8 players on the field you're a good shot to win the match.

THIRD QUARTER

15 minutes: Brendon 'first draft pick' Goddard takes a fantastic mark and then follows up with the goal to keep the Saints 'close'. 55-26.
10 minutes: Couple of Geelong goals and its 74-26, game over. Saints should get ready for Collingwood already.
5 minutes: 86-34 getting ugly now... Remarkable stat just came up - the Cats have only an Inside 50 advantage of 7, yet they lead by almost ten goals. That's astounding. A massive blight on the entry by the Saints midfielders, and especially Nick Riewoldt.
2 minutes: 99-35 now and the lead has gone past ten goals. This game is dead now, so I'm out. I will say this though. Collingwood have got to be watching this match and licking their lips at St. Kilda's ineptitude. Not to jinx us but the Pies have to be considered favourites next week. And on the other front, I don't envy Hawthorn on the prospect of a Grand Final vs. the Cats. This unit is looking more dominant than even the Lions dynasty of a few years back. Scary.

Votes

8 - James Bartel (Geel)
8 - Brad Ottens (Geel)
8 - Gary Ablett (Geel)
7 - Harry Taylor (Geel)
7 - Brendon Goddard (St. K)