Buddy, Aker and two gun midfields

Finals time is the most exciting time of the year, and each finals series is different. This year is no exception. There are basically two genuine contenders, one team that's impossible to get a handle on and then five teams with clear deficiencies. Let's face it Collingwood aren't going to be in a grand final this year. Sure if everything went right for the Pies (Bulldogs beat Hawthorn, Saints get injured, wet weather preliminary final) there would be a shot. But it's too unlikely. I have set my expectations at zero for these Magpies. In my mind their season finished with that insipid performance against Freo. Anything positive they do from this point on is a bonus. So with that said, here's hoping (with reality my aid) for a Hawthorn vs. Geelong grand final. That's the game we all want to see. Obviously Geelong will be favourites, but Buddy has that thing about him where on any given day he could explode for 11 and win the match. And we know he loves the big stage. But we're four weeks away from that stuff, so lets focus on the week's matchups. I'll be breaking them down one by one.

Hawthorn vs. Western Bulldogs (Friday night MCG)

Defence: What was thought to be Hawthorn's achilles heel before the season was its inexperienced and young backline. Surprisingly the backline, while not a major strength, has not let the team down. Trent Croad has been rock solid, Stephen Gilham has defied expectations, and Luke Hodge has dropped back nicely into the quarterback role. The Hawks have a number of guys that can be placed on a back flank and provide terrific run. Ladson, Osbourne, Birchall and Young can all be placed into this role easily. In terms of points scored against, the Hawks rank a terrific 3rd in the competition. This is not only due to the solid defence they employ, but the now famous zone they use.

The Bulldogs had the same cynical expectations about their defence before the season began. Last year they ranked a paltry 14th in points scored against. This year they've improved dramatically to 7th in the competition in that department. Their back six isn't formiddible but they get the job done on a consistent basis. Brian Lake, Lindsay Gilbee and Dale Morris are steady as she goes, all would press for All-Australian consideration. The Bulldogs play an attacking free-flowing running game, the difference between this year and last can be greatly attriubuted to the much-improved defence. Still though, the stats don't lie, the Hawks have the better defence.

Slight edge Hawthorn

Midfield: Both of these teams have sensational game-breaking midfields. Both midfields run tirelessly, and break the lines. Skill is not a shortage either. The Hawks have a fantastic mix in the middle. Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell are both champions. Each player is fearless and wins their own footy. These guys are complimented by the all-round play of Sewell and Bateman, the dash of Osbourne/Ladson/Young, the experience of Shane Crawford and the hardness of Jordan Lewis. The only weakness in the midfield is the ruck. Robert Campbell still just doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

The Dogs play probably the most free-flowing attacking game in football. They're a great unit to watch, the way they make and use space, and run and carry. Matthew Boyd and Daniel Cross are rock solid, Daniel Giansiracusa is the resident magician, Adam Cooney is the star, Nathan Eagleton still contributes, and Ryan Griffen and Farren Ray, while raw, and champions in the making. The biggest edge the Dogs may have over the Hawks come Friday night is in the ruck. The duo of Ben Hudson and Will Minson will take the points over Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf (who even is that guy?). The only question is how decisive the victory will be. It's almost even in this department, but the fact that the two best players in the middle will both come from Hawthorn puts the Hawks in front again.

Slight edge Hawthorn

Forward line: The Dogs defence was bad last year but the forward line was just a big a problem. They were relying on Brad Johnson to kick 5 a game (which he did most weeks anyway) to keep them in matches. They had no tall target to kick to. That's different this year. The Dogs have a forward line where at first you don't think it's that much, then you realise they have Scott Welsh, Brad Johnson, Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Will Minson and Jason Akermanis. That my friends is a very good forward line. The Bulldogs have six guys who have kicked over 30 goals this year. I don't think any other team can claim to match that. Still though the fact remains that they don't have that gun key forward that can be counted on week in week out. Murphy, Johnson and Akermanis are skill/IQ guys, not contested mark forwards. Scott Welsh is a secondary option at best and Will Minson and Mitch Hahn aren't developed forwards. Down by 5 with 20 seconds to go it's just hard to see a long bomb forward finding a target.

The Hawks forward line is much heralded. Obviously you have Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, the best one-two punch in football. The two kicked 168 goals between them this year which is just insane. Then you have Mark Williams, probably the best #3 guy in the league. Add in the explosive Cyril Rioli and whoever is having a chopout from the midfield, be it Crawford or Osbourne or whoever, and you have the best forward line in football.

Big edge Hawthorn

Form, injuries and last time they met: Another big plus for Hawthorn obviously. The Hawks enter this match in very solid form. They're coming off an cruisy blowout over Carlton, and have won 4 of their past 5. You can stretch that to 5 out of their last 6 almost, the loss against Geelong was as much a victory as it was a loss for the Hawks. The Dogs can take some form of confidence from the fact that the Hawks are only 8-5 since round 9. Still though the buzz is good and everyone seems to be feeling ready at Hawthorn. Adding to the good fortune is the clean slate of health. They have virtually zero injury worries.

The Dogs form concerns are well documented. The Dogs have won just 2 of their last 5 matches, with the wins coming against a form-bitten Swans outfit and the injury-decimated Bombers. The Dogs looked awful against Geelong, and ever since that deflating loss they haven't really been the same. They can take confidence from the fact that the past two weeks they have actually played decent football. Scott West is the only injury casualty, disrespectful as it may sound it shouldn't be too much of a worry for the Dogs, West contributed little to campaign 2008.

The last time these teams met has to be the greatest source of confidence for the Dogs. A convincing 32-point win ended Hawthorn's winning streak at 9. The Dogs ran hard and handballed their way through Hawthorn's zone, making the Hawks look bad in the process. Cooney, Boyd, Giansiracusa and Aker were best for the Dogs, while Scott Welsh kicked 4 goals. Ladson and Mitchell were best for the Hawks, while Buddy kicked 5. It should be noted Luke Hodge did not play in this match.

The Hawks will win if...

Campbell and Renouf force a contest in the ruck and give their on-ballers a shot. The Hawks successfully clog up and prevent the Bulldogs free-flowing style with their zone. The game becomes more physical, as the Hawks will have this edge with the likes of Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell around the ball. The big thing though is this - the Dogs can't contain both Buddy and Roughead.

The Dogs will win if...

The game is a shootout. A shootout will in turn mean a free-flowing game which is what the Dogs will need to win. Their rucks do what is expected and give first use of the ball to the likes of Cooney, Cross and Ray. Hawthorn lose it mentally as they did last year against the Kangaroos. The Hawks become too Buddy-oriented.

The prediction...

It's just too difficult to see the Dogs winning this game. They haven't played a genuinely excellent game since that last win over Hawthorn. Excellence is going to be required to beat the Hawks. I struggle to see Dale Morris and Brian Lake really limiting Franklin and Roughead. Finals football is so dependent on intensity around the ball and when it comes down to it there's no doubt in my mind that Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge will die before losing this match. Can you say the same for Adam Cooney and Farren Ray? I don't think so.

Hawthorn 114 Bulldogs 89