Fading powers

With football season winding down (yes I will post that Collingwood 2008 review... eventually) I haven't posted as frequently as I would have liked to. For the record...

-My tips last week were Geelong and St. Kilda. I thought that the Saints would be riding the Robert Harvey factor and the Hawks had no one for Riewoldt. I forget to factor in the fact that Hawthorn are a good football team and St. Kilda are not.

-Geelong almost choked away a second preliminary final in two years. The fact that the Bulldogs (far from a great team) could have won the match if only they kicked straight is a blemish on Geelong's quality. We learnt a lot about both teams last night. The Bulldogs are still somewhat of a joke of the club. Robert Murphy and Will Minson should be haunted by that game for months. The Cats are not in the same league as the 1999-2001 Bombers or the 2001-2004 Lions. They may indeed be more talented, but they lack the mentality and killer instinct of those two teams. Similarly to the performance against Collingwood last year the Cats on Friday night played purely not to lose. That is not the mentality of a champion team.

-Is it safe to say Luke Hodge is now the greatest spiritual leader of a football team in 20 years?

-My tip for the Brownlow was Simon Black and the umpires nearly made me look like a genius. I'm not happy with Cooney taking out the award. Black and Ablett are two absolute champions of the game who give all they have every single match. Adam Cooney can be shut out of games on a regular basis.

-Full credit to Paul Medhurst on his All Australian selection and 12 brownlow votes. Well deserved.

-Had Matthew Richardson won the Brownlow, well... my faith in humanity would have taken a significant hit.

ANYWAY, moving on. As I said, the footy season is winding down. To fill the time until we get going again I'll be looking at other sports. In my mind, factoring in everything American football is the second greatest sport in the world. The NFL season has now well and truly kicked off. I started really taking a keen interest in the NFL in the playoff season of 2006/07. The first game I really watched was the now famous playoff game where Seattle beat Dallas 21-20 after Tony Romo let the game go in the final minute. It was an amazing match, and not long after I watched the incredible match between Indianapolis and New England and I was well and truly hooked on the sport. I'm a New York Giants fan, and I was absolutely thrilled watching their Super Bowl campaign last year, which features three amazing matches in a row.

My plan for the NFL season is this. On Monday or Tuesday I'll write about my thoughts on the weekend's happenings, and then rate who at that particular stage who the playoff teams of the season will be. On Friday, Saturday or Sunday I will give some predictions for the upcoming matches. Anyway, here we go...

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (3-0)
It's amazing really that Tennessee can be the best team in the AFC. What happened to perennial super powers New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and up and comers Jacksonville and Cleveland? They've all fallen flat on their faces and old (or young) reliable Tennessee has been the most consistently impressive team in the conference. The defense has been the best in the league, the running game has been terrific and Kerry Collins has provided stability at QB. The season may hinge on how the Vince Young situation is handled.

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0)
Much like Tennessee in that they aren't that flashy, they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards are fast establishing themselves as top players at their respective positions. The defense has been stout, and despite only beating the lowly Raiders (or perhaps not so lowly after back to back impressive performances) by a single point they gave their strongest indication that they will be a contender this year - they managed to pull out a win even when they weren't playing the well, perhaps the greatest mark of a good team.

3. San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Patriots have lost Brady, Colts have lost a lot too, but the Chargers don't have that excuse. Well they do have a greater excuse, the fact that they were genuinely robbed of victory by the ref in Denver, but that was still a match they should have won. The offense is still absolute dynamite. LT is still the best back in the business, and Darren Sproles amazingly isn't too far behind - this guy is extraordinary. Phillip Rivers has taken the next step. The defense creates turnovers, but has been terrible so far. Conceding something like 90 points over three games will not get it done. Sure they could easily be 3-0, but that defense needs to improve dramatically if they're to be taken really seriously.

4. Denver Broncos (3-0)
I need to establish that these rankings aren't to state what I believe the final standings will be - they're to show who I believe has the best shot at making the Super Bowl. At this stage, I still think San Diego are a better team than Denver. And Tennessee and Buffalo more together than the Broncos. They may have the best offense in the league but the defense isn't far from the worst. They will struggle in big matches against good defensive teams. I still think they'll win the division though.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
These last two spots are really difficult to figure. I went with Pittsburgh here because I figure that they'll get out of the uninspiring AFC North without too much difficulty. The defense is solid, and the offense with Big Ben, Fast Willie and the Ward/Holmes combo is pretty good. The question will be whether all of this is good enough to counter the genuinely shocking offensive line they have going.

6. New England Patriots (2-1)
Indy and Jacksonville seem too banged up so I'm going with the Patriots here, despite the incredible showing against Miami. Incredible in the worst possible sense of the word. I don't think the game was a total abberation, but you could make an argument that it was simply too bad and too wacky to be true. Cassell has to go. The Patriots need a veteran Kerry Collins-like QB to manage the offense. The offense right now with these dinky slant passes looks impotent. The difference between the Patriots making the playoffs and being on the outside looking in will depend on someone having the ability to get the long ball to Randy Moss. They get in the playoffs based on their incredibly easy schedule.

On the outside looking in:

Jacksonville: Brave performance against the Colts. Saved their season with good hustle, some luck and a guy named Scobee. I still think that offensive line and the team altogether is too banged up to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis: Also too banged up. Run defense has been a joke all season and the supposedly superhuman Manning/Addai/Wayne/Harrison/Gonzales offense is averaging just 17 points a game.
Baltimore: I don't buy it. Defense might get them 8 wins this season, but the offense and Joe Flacco don't exactly inspire. Look for Pittsburgh to embarrass them this Monday night.
New York Jets: Were embarrassed today by San Diego. What's more embarrassing though is the fact that they lost to a team at home that lost to Miami by 25 (which by the way they were lucky to beat in the first place. Jets looking more and more like a 6-10 team, and Favre looks his age.

NFC

1. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
No arguments here I hope. The best team in football and then some. The defense doesn't look that special, but with an offense like this ala Patriots 07 it's not going to matter. Put it this way - Brady/Maroney/Faulk/Moss/Welker/Watson or Romo/Barber/Jones/Owens/Crayton/Witten? The fact that you at least have to think long and hard about it just goes to show exactly how good these Cowboys are. I'm not about to put forward a case for a perfect season though. Romo might have the talent but he doesn't have close to the composure of Brady.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Eagles have played two quality opponents the past two weeks and have come up big both times. Any doubts about the defense after the Dallas match are just about non-existent now after they absolutely raped Big Ben and the Steelers. Next week against Chicago will be interesting, we'll see how they stack up against a really good defense.

3. New York Giants (3-0)
There's a much different feel to this Giants team this year than to last year. Last year they played with desperation, this year they're playing with composure. It's not a great ball club, but it's an all round solid team. The defense has proven that it can get the job done, and Eli Manning is showing postseason form early on. They'll go into the bye week full of confidence. When they come back they'll have games against Seatlle, @Cleveland and then home to San Francisco. They should actually find themselves 7-0. They're going to need that buffer because after that light stretch they go @Pittsburgh, Dallas and @Philadelphia. Good times.

4. Green Bay (2-1)
Despite the letdown against Dallas you still have to like this team. Say what you want but Aaron Rodgers is having a much better season than Brett Favre to this pont. Greg Jennings has established himself as a force, they just need Ryan Grant to do the same. Smells like an 11-5 team to me.

5. Carolina Panthers (2-1)
I wouldn't be too fazed with the Minnesota loss. That was a team that desperately needed to win. I still really like this team. Jake Delhomme is a quality QB, the receiving corps with Steve Smith back are very good and Jonathan Stewart will only continue to develop. With an easy schedule and home games against Atlanta and Kansas City coming up the Panthers are a near lock for 4-1 and should take the NFC South with relative ease.

6. San Fransisco 49ers (2-1)
Why not? Someone has to come out of the dreadful West, and the 49ers are in as good shape as everyone. The Seahawks are banged up, the Cardinals aren't anything inspiring and the Rams aren't going anywhere fast. The defense isn't too shabby, Frank Gore has been great and JT O'Sullivan is actually a decent QB. I watched him against Seattle last weekend and he looked really good. Sure they'll probably get murdered in the first round of the playoffs, but they're a good shot to be there.

On the outside looking in:

Minnesota: I like Green Bay more. The Packers and Vikings are a dead heat on defense but the Packers have a much better passing game, the best upside wildcard guy of the two teams (Grant) and seemingly a lot more heart. The Vikes might go 9-7 or even 10-6 but such is the structure of the playoffs the 7-9 49ers might edge them out.
Tampa Bay: Sure the defense is great again and they have a knack of beating the teams they should beat, but much like Minnesota I just prefer another team in their division. The Panthers are a better all round team, and such is the quality (and schedule in one team's case) of the Eagles and Giants I see the Wild Cards locked up already.
Chicago: Harsh as it may seem, the Bears season might have ended with those losses against Carolina and Tampa. Leading as deep as they led, and at home, those are games you absolutely have to win.
New Orleans: The loss of Colston and now Shockey is too devastating for a team that relies solely on its offense to win matches. A disappointing 7-9 season coming up.

Super Bowl pick: Still has to be Dallas. Unless Indy suddenly gets healthy, San Diego gets its defensive act together or Tom Brady's knee is touched by god I think it's safe to say that for all intents and purposes the Super Bowl will be played a couple weeks early in the NFC Championship game. As we stand I'd favour Philly and the Giants over any AFC team. And I fancy Dallas over both of them.