The NBA, just a month away

September is the greatest month in sports lets face it. The AFL finals series, the NFL and College football get started, the tennis US Open is in full swing and the MLB playoff hunt intensifies then comes to a close. After that though we have the start of the NHL (which I'm going to make an effort to follow) and the NBA in October. I love the NBA. The NBA finals series between Boston and LA was just a really great sporting event, and left me wanting a fair bit more. This might seem a bit early, but much like my new NFL habit, I'm going to evaluate the chances of each team. Here we go...

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (59 wins)
Got to pay respect to the defending champs. The loss of Posey hurts, as does the aging of the Big Three. I think that the continued improvement of Rondo and Perkins (who looked really good in the playoffs) counters the inevitable decline of the Big Three. For this year at least.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (57 wins)
I think this is the year that Cleveland really elevate themselves to that next tier. LeBron takes further steps to entering the realm of Jordon, and the Mo Williams signing helps this team a lot.
3. Toronto Raptors (49 wins)
I think the Jermaine O'Neal signing works wonders for this team. O'Neal and Bosh in the front court with Calderon running the offense is good for a first round home series in the playoffs. The major drawback of the Raptors is that they don't have any reliable scoring guards. I'm not rapped about the Raptors, but such is the weakness of the East I think this is where they might end up.
4. Orlando Magic (48 wins)
The way the Magic departed from the playoffs and the way Dwight Howard struggled has to be concerning for people in Orlando. They haven't made many strides to improve this offseason either. Point guard is still a worry, but the Magic will earn home court advantage and take the division purely on weight of talent.
5. Detroit Pistons (46 wins)
I think this is the year that the Pistons mini-dynasty begins to end. They'll die a slow death though. There's quality all over the roster, but I'm not sure this team has enough youth or desire to get back to the top of the East.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (43 wins)
I see the Sixers being one of the disappointments of the season. All this talk of them joining the elite could very well go to their heads. This was a workmanlike team that played well above their heads all season. Now that the media says they're good, and with the expectation of winning I think they come back down to Earth.
7. Washington (42 wins)
The perennial 6th-8th Washington Wizards ladies and gentlemen. It must be a bleak existence for Wizards fans. The absolute ceiling of this team is a second round exit. That's the best possible outcome. Sadly enough I don't think Gilbert Arenas' absence in the first month hurts this team that much.
8. Milwaukee (41 wins)
Everyone is talking about the improved East but I don't really buy it. I think Milwaukee will be an average team fighting for .500 all season, but I think they'll make the playoffs in the still lowly East. You can do worse than a Ridnour, Redd, Richardson, Villanueva and Bogut in your starting lineup. There's three quality guys there. Ramon Sessions is fascinating too off the bench.

9. Atlanta (39 wins)
Loved the heart this team showed against the Celtics. Joe Johnson has established himself as a franchise guy, Josh Smith is insanely talented, Al Horford will improve some more and Mike Bibby should provide some stability at point. The problem will be depth.
10. Chicago (37 wins)
I think the Bulls regain their swagger from a couple of years ago. I think Rose has a decent season, and overall the team plays harder than they did last year. They'll be a good hustle team all year, but they have zero frontcourt and that'll stop them from reaching the playoffs.
11. Miami (35 wins)
I don't buy the Miami hype. Yeah, there's Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley. One proven superstar then a number three intangibles guy and a rookie who doesn't play defense. This team has zero depth. The team is entirely dependent on one player, and an injury-prone player at that. If Wade goes down the Heat are a 15 win team again.
12. New York (32 wins)
The Knicks will be improved. I think D'Antoni begins to harness some of the talent of this team. This team has been a solid offensive and terrible defensive team for a while now, and I think D'Antoni takes that and runs with it. Guys like Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford will thrive in this system.
13. Indiana Pacers (31 wins)
Some are talking about the Pacers as a potential playoff team. I really don't see it. I mean, they don't have a system and no real cause for optimism. At best Granger is a number 2 guy, and when Mike Dunleavy is your second best player your in trouble.
14. Charlotte Bobcats (30 wins)
No idea at the direction of this team. Richardson, Wallace and Okafor are all OK players, but none of them are going to front a playoff run. Larry Brown can't do much to help either. Not hard to see the Cats 8-19 and Brown losing it completely.
15. New Jersey (24 wins)
Seems like Jay-Z is betting it all on getting LeBron in 2010. If he doesn't, he's in huge trouble because this team isn't looking in good shape. People are talking about losing Richard Jefferson. They're forgetting that Jersey also lost Marcus Williams, Desanga Diop, Boston Nachbar and Nenad Krystic (all key rotation guys) for virtually nothing. When Yi Jianlian and Josh Boone is your starting frontcourt it's going to be a long year.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers (63 wins)
It's scary how well this team is set up for now and the future. Having the best player in the game, and then Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum in the same lineup is frightening for everyone else in the league. The bench with Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, Ariza and Vlad is in great shape too. Full years from Ariza and Bynum will make this team that much better. This team should cruise (now easy task in the West) to the top of the conference. The real test will be of its mental fortitude in the playoffs.
2. Houston Rockets (58 wins)
The only genuine threat to LA. With T-Mac, Yao and Artest the Rockets' upside is scary for the Lakers. They should retain their defensive intensity from last year, and the added scoring punch of Artest makes them almost a lock for home court in the playoffs. In this environment I can't really see Artest imploding either.
3. Utah Jazz (54 wins)
This team needs to figure out how to win on the road. Maybe they should watch some Giants games or something, but something has to happen. If this team can go like .500 on the road, which they definitely should, they're a lock for 50 wins. Deron Williams is one of the elite players in the league, and they're still the toughest team to beat at home.
4. New Orleans (50 wins)
I think New Orleans is in for a bit of a regression. But you can't complain when your regression season still has you at 50 wins. Chris Paul should come back down to Earth a bit, and they didn't really impress in the playoffs against the Spurs. I think that series will do them a lot of good though. They're due for a stiffer run with health this year, and maybe a little less luck, but come the playoffs I think they'll be a harder out.
5. Phoenix Suns (48 wins)
Phoenix's demise has been slightly exaggerated. This team was probably all up about three or four plays from beating Western Conference runners-up San Antonio. Sure Nash and Shaq are older, but people are forgetting just how good Amare was towards the end of last year. I still think they're relevant.
6. Dallas Mavericks (48 wins)
They'll be improved from last year's debacle. A full season of Jason Kidd in the system will help the offense, and hopefully they've sorted out a few of their mental issues. I doubt they'll be back up to the top of the league, but they'll have a say in the playoffs.
7. San Antonio (47 wins)
Tim Duncan's getting older, Tony Parker took a huge step backwards last year and Manu Ginobili is already injured and no sure bet for the season. I don't think San Antonio are the 7th best team in the West, they're better than that. But as far as getting through 82 tough regular season games, they'll have the seventh best record in the West when all is said and done or thereabouts. Come playoff season though, they'll have a decent shot.
8. Portland Trailblazers (45 wins)
So much pressure on this team. I think they live up to expectations. Roy is a stud, and if Oden is three quarters the guy everyone says he is then the Blazers will be an almost sure thing for the playoffs. Love the way they hustle.

9. Los Angeles Clippers (40 wins)
Easily the most interesting team in the NBA. With all the controversy in the offseason and all the comings and goings this team is going to be a wild ride all season. Baron, Thornton and Gordon are three big offensive weapons, Kaman is solid down low and Camby will be a presence as always. Playoffs is not beyond them.
10. Golden State Warriors (35 wins)
No Baron, no Monta (for a while), no playoffs for the Warriors. Baron was the heart of this team, and it's hard to see the Warriors even flirting with .500 without Ellis for the first month or so. One bad month in the West will see your playoff hopes go down the drain.
11. Sacramento Kings (32 wins)
Strikes me as a team that on the surface is pretty mediocre but overachieves a little. Kevin Martin is a gun, and he's surrounded by a lot of OK players. Nothing special will abound from this team, but they're not going to embarass themselves.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (31 wins)
The future is brighter for the Wolves than it has been for a while. At least now they have some direction. Got to Love the Love and Jefferson frontcourt tandem. They'll make solid progress this year.
13. Denver Nuggets (29 wins)
Here's my big tip for the 08/09 season - the Denver Nuggets completely implode. I'm talking about punch-ons, consistent 138-114 losses and the trade of Allen Iverson at mid-season. I think it all goes to hell.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (27 wins)
A team that knows a little about hell are the players stuck on the Memphis Grizzlies. Another lottery pick awaits.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (24 wins)
The Thunder will be stuck in the lottery for quite a while. I'm sure the people of Oklahoma City will be rapt to see any sort of pro basketball (or pro sport for that matter) and Durant will be a huge buzz. They probably won't even care about winning or losing, they'll just be thrilled to watch some basketball. That's a good thing because the Thunder will be doing a lot of losing.

Championship: At this stage you can't go past the Lakers. You've got to figure with the youth and Bynum the Lakers will only get better, while the Celtics might be on the decline.