We go to Adelaide.. again

There are two matches this weekend that are virtually impossible to tip a winner. This is one of them. I'm surprised at the lack of respect the Pies are getting in the media. Everyone seems to have hopped on the Adelaide bandwagon pretty quickly after just one week of football. I think we're forgetting a few things. Namely;

1) It's one week! The week before Collingwood looked amazing in demolishing Sydney, and the Crows looked dreadful getting beaten up on by the Saints. I don't know how we're forgetting this. It should also be noted that the Pies bounce back quickly. Last year they lost 9 matches, none of which were consecutive. Collingwood's record this year after losses is a less impressive 4-4, but still it demonstrates that they can bounce back quite easily.

2) Collingwood own Adelaide! Okay 'own' is overdoing it, but in all seriousness Collingwood plays very well against the Crows. The Pies had a 6 game winning streak over Adelaide from 2001-04 (not irrelevant trust me), and even in their 'sucky' years of 2004 and 2005 they managed to keep things competitive with the higher placed Crows. AAMI stadium holds no fear for the Woods either. In fact, they almost like it there. We've won our past three games there, and as showed in 2002 we can win finals there too against the odds. Maybe it's just because of that 2002 and 2003 finals campaigns where it seemed like we were beating up on Adelaide teams every week, but the Crows really do not scare me. And yeah, I do realise I just put the biggest jinx of all time on Collingwood.

Anyway, cutting the match down...

Defence: As we know the Crows absolutely pride themselves on defence. The past four years have seen the Crows ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd in points conceded. That really is phenomenal, a testament to Neil Craig and his staff. What is really scary is how good the Crows are at home defensively. At home they (on average) concede like 74 points per game, compared to the 92 they give up on the road. Take out Port Adelaide and Geelong (Port because Adelaide have no home ground advantage, and Geelong because they're Geelong) and the two highest scores kicked against Adelaide at AAMI have been 86 (Carlton in a loss) and 76 (Hawthorn in a win). What worries me most is that Hawthorn went to Adelaide in solid form, played extremely well in good conditions and fully fit, and only scored 76 points. I can't state how worrying that is for a Collingwood supporter.

How do the Crows do it? Neil Craig is the main guy here. He's AFL's equivalent to an American football defensive coordinator. This guy is a numbers cruncher, he's all about structure, and he gets it right. I'd say that nobody in the league gets more out of his list than Neil Craig does. Obviously having the structure is important, but having the guys to employ it is just as vital. The Crows certainly have no shortages there. If Buddy and Roughead are the best attacking one-two punch in the league, Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten stand tall at the defensive end of the spectrum. Rutten is still one of the best lockdown fullbacks in the league (if not the best). Nathan Bock is emerging as a star. This guy stopped, genuinely stopped Buddy Franklin. That does not bode well for Travis Cloke. Surround those two with a third tall defensive stopper in Nathan Bassett and it's a formiddible key defence. Graham Johncock is an excellent decision maker and rock solid in defence. Oh yeah and there's Andrew McLeod. In short it's the best defence in the league, with apologies to Geelong.

How do the Pies combat this? Well they've got a 30 year old whose played one game in almost 2 years, a kid in his first year, a Brazillian, an Irishman and a bloke named Goldsack. It does not bode well. In all seriousness though, the Pies defence isn't that bad. Against teams like Hawthorn the lack of height and experience in defence is exploited, against the Crows we can get away with it. The Pies rank a very good 6th in defence this year, and haven't conceded more than 83 points over the past month (2 of those matches were against finals sides in perfect conditions, as well).

Still though... Moderate edge Adelaide

Midfield

The Crows have a weird midfield. They have these guys like Mackay and Symes that you just never hear about. Apparently they're good though. I guess we'll see. Anyway, it's a decent but not great midfield built around veterans Goodwin and Edwards, and gun Scott Thompson. The rucks Maric and Moran thankfully shouldn't dominate too much either. The Crows midfield doesn't scare me. Limit Scott Thompson and it should be tame.

The Pies midfield on paper doesn't really inspire, but come game day it's usually effective. The midfield rotates so much it's hard to label players as forwards or defenders or midfielders. I think Collingwood strongest midfield has Fraser in the ruck, Lockeyer, Swan and O'Bree in the guts with Leon Davis and Scott Pendlebury hovering around. It's not a great midfield, and we lack a genuine gun (*cough* Get Ben Cousins!!! *cough*), but it seems to get the job done. O'Bree is a servicable in and under player, Tarkyn Lockeyer is useful for his skill, Swan is a fantastic runner, Davis and Pendlebury are the class, and Rhyce Shaw and Dale Thomas are the dash.

Even

Forward line

Looking at the names in the Crows forward line it's hard to fathom how they're in the top eight let alone percentage off 4th spot. Without Burton and Porplyzia this forward line looks impotent. You sense that Simon Goodwin is going to have to go forward for the Crows. Who is going to be the target going forward? Kurt Tippett and Nick Gill you'd suspect. Tippett is averaging less than a goal a game as a key forward, and Nick Gill has kicked 10 goals in 8 games for the year. As good as the defence is, the forward line is terrible. The Crows just seem to conjure goals somehow.

The Pies forward line meanwhile is quite clearly dangerous. The Crows greatest weakness is the Pies greatest strength. Paul Medhurst has established himself as a star, and possibly the best player on the team. He kicked 5.5 against Adelaide last time out, and they don't really seem to have a matchup for him (Doughty? Johncock?). He'll be a key. The real key for the Pies, and for the match though is Travis Cloke. Cloke played very well against the Crows last time out, and his duel against Bock will more than likely decide the match. It's a big ask for young Travis, but he's got to step up. John Anthony is an excellent 3rd or 4th option, as well as the best set shot kick for goal in the game right now. Dawes is intriguing, and the likes of Davis, Thomas, Pendlebury will all be given time around goal.

Big edge Collingwood

Form, injuries, and last time they met: Form is a slight nod to Adelaide. They have afterall won 5 of their last 6. Three of the wins though came against Carlton, Richmond and Essendon, all games they would expect to win. We've seen the best and worst of the Crows in the past two weeks. A terrible performance filled with lack of direction backed up by a fantastic win against the Dogs dominated by hustle and defensive structure. You can bet good money we're going to see the 'good' Adelaide show up Saturday afternoon. Injuries have hit both teams horribly this year. As we stand, Adelaide have probably been hit harder. They've lost both Burton and Porplyzia, the two best forwards they have and very possibly their two best players full stop.

The Pies form I discussed earlier. We can only hope the Fremantle game was an abberation, because the Pies were in brilliant form beforehand. Injuries and retirements and suspensions have decimated Collingwood's season. Buckley and Clement retiring has killed Collingwood this year. Injuries to Rocca, Reid and Rusling have destroyed the forward line. This week we'll be without our skipper, and Shane Wakelin - probably our #1 defender these days. Then of course there is the suspensions to Alan Didak and Heath Shaw. I'm glad the club has held firm, but you sense that with Didak and Shaw Collingwood would be favourites, whereas right now they are pretty big underdogs.

The last time they met Collingwood simply run over the top of the Crows. Medhurst and Cloke dominated and Rhyce Shaw played a blinder. Scott Thompson racked up 36 disposals for Adelaide but didn't have that much of an impact surprisingly. Adelaide lost Brett Burton around half time, and in turn lost the match.

The Crows will win if...

The game is a defensive struggle played on their terms - low-scoring, low-tempo. Nathan Bock limits Travis Cloke, Leon Davis continues to struggle against teams that thrive on pressure and accountability, and Paul Medhurst stays mired in his form slump. The height of Gill and Tippett is too much for Brown and Presti, and guys like Goodwin, Vince, Van Berlo and Edwards find avenues to goal.

The Pies will win if...

The game is played at a quicker pace. Space opens up around the ground, and the Pies are smart with their forward 50 entries (unlike last week!). Josh Fraser burns his slower opponents around the ground and holds his own in the ruck. Medhurst breaks out of his form slump and dominates Adelaide like he did last time. Travis Cloke. Travis Cloke. Travis Cloke. The difference between Collingwood playing next week, or going home for good is Travis Cloke. He needs to take responsibility.

The prediction...

My fear is this - finals are almost always played on the terms of the home team. The measurements of the ground, the crowd, the familiarity, the atmosphere - all these things lead to the home team dictating the way the game is played. And I fear that the Crows will be able to turn the match into the low-tempo defensive struggle they thrive on. This match is basically a wash. Collingwood are the better team, I have little doubt of that. But we're banged up, and after last week I question our ability to win interstate. This isn't the same team as last year. The game hinges way too much on Travis Cloke, and I just can't trust him and his left boot. Unfortunate as it may sound, when in doubt, go for the home team.

Adelaide 78 Collingwood 74