Ladies and gentlemen get ready for your 2008 World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the... Los Angeles Dodgers!
That's right, the Dodgers could very well be the World Series. I don't think a 3-1 series deficit has ever been so misleading. The Dodgers have been the better team in three out of four games, but are down 3-1 because of four swings of the bat. The Dodgers have looked much better the past two games. I believe that Cole Hamels will prove to everyone that he's still soft with a weak performance on the road, Chad Billingsley bounces back behind his home crowd and the Dodgers go back to Philly full of confidence. Brett Myers will break down under the pressure and then it'll come down to Lowe vs. Moyer in Game 7, a match where the Dodgers would be favoured. The series rests with Hamels and his arm tomorrow night.
The other series you have to figure is as good as over. 9-1 and 13-4 wins on the road is extraordinary. How has this happened?
a) Upton/Longoria/Pena/Crawford
Combined these guys have 7 HR, 20 RBI, 10 walks and are hitting 23 for 56 (.411). They get big hits and come up strong for their team whenever required. Their were questions about the Rays potency on offense - these guys have made that argument mute.
b) Pitching
Ironically the only Rays big name pitcher (Scott Kazmir) failed miserably while the three lesser lights have shone tremendously. James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have combined for 20.2 innings giving up just 18 hits, 6 walks and 6 earned runs while striking out 13. These guys haven't been overpowering (just 13 K's) but they are pitching with intelligence and poise, and going deep enough to cover up the surprisingly suspect bullpen the Rays have thrown out.
c) Dan Wheeler
You can't overstate how big this guy's performance was in Game 2. Lose that game and let's face it the Rays are probably done. He came in early, messed up, then atoned incredibly. If the Rays win the World Series you can point back to 3.1 innings, 4 K's and 1 hit allowed as the major reason.
d) Defense
The Rays own the best defense in the major leagues and it's showing. Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett has to be about the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. This team manages to turn double plays when they have to, and they do it fantastically.
e) Boston
This Red Sox team just doesn't have it, but it's tough to blame them. Their #1 pitcher and #1 hitter are both injured to the point of being borderline useless. David Ortiz has zero presence at the plate and is 1 for 14 at the plate. Beckett's injury has hurt even more. The ability to throw out a guy and know that he's going to get it done is invaluable in the postseason. Beckett just doesn't have it right now. J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell are injured adding further stress to the lineup. There is too much pressure on Jon Lester to get it done, and if you can retire Pedroia and Youkillis then you've pretty much got the match won. The Red Sox are a fine team, baseball's best shot at a dynasty at present - but it's not going to happen for them in 2008.
Defense
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
Tony Romo isn't a good quarterback... and neither is Joe Flacco
Tony Romo is the most overrated player in the NFL. I'll stand by that. His success is a product of the players around him and the system that he is in. I genuinely believe that if you were to substitute him with Kurt Warner the Dallas Cowboys would be a football team. It's a bit tough to call Romo a 'bad' quarterback, but at times he really harms his team. He spends way too long in the pocket, tries to force throws, makes careless mental mistakes and refuses to give up on plays. When you're handing the ball off to Marion Barber and Felix Jones, and have Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton as targets obviously you're got an upper hand from the beginning. Romo's not taking advantage of it. On the surface Romo's 24/39 321 yards and 3 TD's is a fantastic game today. But the number that stands out to me is this - 3. 3: the number of times Tony Romo fumbled the ball, in instances due to mental errors and trying to create plays that simply weren't there. On the joke of a rule called the 'tuck rule' Romo avoided a fourth fumble and a subsequent Arizona touchdone. 3: the number of times Romo was sacked, all on occasions where he tried too hard to keep a play going when the best option was to simply throw away the ball.
I can't call Tony Romo a bad quarterback. What I will say though is that he's an overrated one, and he doesn't help his team as much as he should. When he does then maybe we can consider Dallas a genuine contender. On to the rankings.
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
The number one team maintains their position. The teams that follow them - Denver (loss), Buffalo (bye), Pittsburgh (bye), New England (loss) and Baltimore (loss) - didn't exactly do much to state their own case. The number one team until they're defeated.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 4)
There are more talented teams, and certainly more healthy ones, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team with as much heart as the Steelers. The schedule is tough, but given the class and resiliency of this team, especially in their division, they're a virtual lock for the playoffs.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 3)
Are they too young? How they come out of the bye week will speak volumes about the Bills. They're coming off three mediocre performances in a row, and Marshawn Lynch has been quiet of late. Huge game against the Chargers.
4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2, LW: -)
They're baaaaaaaaack. Certainly feels like the Colts have woken up. 31 points against the NFL's #1 ranked defense with Peyton, Marvin and Reggie back to their old tricks has to have the rest of the AFC worried. @Green Bay and @Tennessee the next two weeks will be big.
5. Denver Broncos (4-2, LW: 2)
Not looking as good now are they. They're susceptible to the run, and you can't help but feel that the Tampa game might have been an abberation. They'll score a lot, they'll give up a lot, whether or not they'll win a lot is unclear.
6. San Diego Chargers (3-3, LW: -)
In undoubtedly the game of the week the Chargers came out and made a huge statement at home against the reeling Patriots. LT wasn't great but he showed some zip, but the story was Phil Rivers. He only had to throw 27 times for 300+ yards and his now routine trio of TD's. Rivers' willingness to throw the long ball might be the greatest positive difference between this year's Chargers and the teams of 06/07.
On the outside looking in
NY Jets (3-2, LW: -)
The Jets seem like a solid 8-8 or 9-7 football team to me. Despite their wins they're yet to beat a decent team (Miami without the wildcat, an Arizona team that can't play on the road, and the winless Bengals). They might not have to though to get into the playoffs, their schedule is piss easy. They still have games against Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami.
Jacksonville (3-3, LW: -)
Finally they put together a comprehensive performance. That said they were a good matchup for the Broncos with their greatest strength (rushing offense) going against Denver's greatest weakness.
New England (3-2, LW: 5)
I watched the clash against the Chargers and this Patriots team looks awful. The run game is mediocre at best, the secondary can be targeted and then there's Matt Cassel. This guy is terrible. He's reduced the offense to slant passes. He missed Randy Moss open on a long ball by eight or nine yards, and he had three passing opportunities on a goal line play and screwed up all of them. The Patriots aren't making the playoffs with Cassel at the helm.
Baltimore (2-3, LW: 6)
Okay I was wrong, I'll admit it. The Ravens are going anywhere fast. The defense may be great, but it's overrated and it's not going to compensate for the horrible offense. Right now Joe Flacco is simply not a good player. A 1 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio is just awful.
I just want to say that for the first time this year I'm feeling pretty confident about the AFC playoff picture. Tennessee and Pittsburgh seem like pretty sure bets, and you have to expect the Bills to be in there. Obviously one of the Chargers and Broncos will win the division, and the other will probably get the Wild Card. New York, New England and Jacksonville are all a shot at the other Wild Card, but I like the Colts over all of them.
NFC
1. NY Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
The champs stay here at least until tomorrow night.
2. Arizona Cardinals (4-2, LW: 6)
Really? I think it has to be. Who else? The Cardinals have played as well as anyone over the past two weeks beating two of what most would consider to be the top six teams in the league. Kurt Warner runs the offense well, Edge James and Hightower represent a solid running game and Larry Fitzgerald is a freak.
3. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-2, LW: -)
After today I don't think anyone can argue with placing them above Carolina. The run game is good, the defense is excellent, and Jeff Garcia can manage an offense. Put it this way - the Bucs have lost two games this year, both on the road to decent teams by a combined margin of 7 points. Their four wins have come against four teams all at .500 or better by a combined margin of 51 points. Super Bowl team? Probably not. Playoff team? I'd say so.
4. Washington Redskins (4-2, LW: 2)
St. Louis hurts. On the road you could maybe justify it - new coach, players with something to prove - but at home there's no excuses. When Jason Campbell and Santana Moss don't have it going the Redskins offense looks painfully one-dimensional. Clinton Portis will only take this team so far.
5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2, LW: 4)
Enough said at the top really. The Cowboys along with the Chargers are the most talented team in the NFL, there's little question of that. Mentally though they might be the weakest. This team just makes dumb plays. They need to get their act together, and fast.
6. Green Bay Packers (3-3, LW: -)
Big win on the road against the Hawks, great performance from Rodgers. The offense with Rodgers, Jennings, Driver and Grant is dynamite if they can get it together. Driver and Grant need to lift.
On the outside looking in
Minnesota
a) putting up 12 points against Detroit is a worry, b) doing it at home is an even bigger one. The fire the coach chants in Minnesota were well warranted, this team was supposed to be going to the Super Bowl. Teams are just going to stuff Adrian Peterson all day, so a lot of matches are going to hinge on Gus Frerotte's arm. That's not good.
Atlanta
Sorry, still don't buy it. Beating the Bears the way they did was a fluke, there's no other way to put it. Where that game was at with 12 seconds to go or whatever, the Bears will win 98 times out of 100. It just happned to be one of those two times for Atlanta. Still haven't beaten a team with more wins than losses.
Chicago
Pretty incredible, that's the third game they absolutely should have won but lost. Giving new meaning to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Philadelphia
The season would have been flashing before their eyes at three quarter time against the Niners. The Eagles are a good team, but you have to question their all round ability to compete with the other teams in their division. I don't think the Eagles are as good as anyone in the NFC East let alone the Bucs, Panthers, Cardinals and even teams like the Bears and Packers can stand up to the Eagles.
Super Bowl pick
New York, New York.
I can't call Tony Romo a bad quarterback. What I will say though is that he's an overrated one, and he doesn't help his team as much as he should. When he does then maybe we can consider Dallas a genuine contender. On to the rankings.
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
The number one team maintains their position. The teams that follow them - Denver (loss), Buffalo (bye), Pittsburgh (bye), New England (loss) and Baltimore (loss) - didn't exactly do much to state their own case. The number one team until they're defeated.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 4)
There are more talented teams, and certainly more healthy ones, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team with as much heart as the Steelers. The schedule is tough, but given the class and resiliency of this team, especially in their division, they're a virtual lock for the playoffs.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 3)
Are they too young? How they come out of the bye week will speak volumes about the Bills. They're coming off three mediocre performances in a row, and Marshawn Lynch has been quiet of late. Huge game against the Chargers.
4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2, LW: -)
They're baaaaaaaaack. Certainly feels like the Colts have woken up. 31 points against the NFL's #1 ranked defense with Peyton, Marvin and Reggie back to their old tricks has to have the rest of the AFC worried. @Green Bay and @Tennessee the next two weeks will be big.
5. Denver Broncos (4-2, LW: 2)
Not looking as good now are they. They're susceptible to the run, and you can't help but feel that the Tampa game might have been an abberation. They'll score a lot, they'll give up a lot, whether or not they'll win a lot is unclear.
6. San Diego Chargers (3-3, LW: -)
In undoubtedly the game of the week the Chargers came out and made a huge statement at home against the reeling Patriots. LT wasn't great but he showed some zip, but the story was Phil Rivers. He only had to throw 27 times for 300+ yards and his now routine trio of TD's. Rivers' willingness to throw the long ball might be the greatest positive difference between this year's Chargers and the teams of 06/07.
On the outside looking in
NY Jets (3-2, LW: -)
The Jets seem like a solid 8-8 or 9-7 football team to me. Despite their wins they're yet to beat a decent team (Miami without the wildcat, an Arizona team that can't play on the road, and the winless Bengals). They might not have to though to get into the playoffs, their schedule is piss easy. They still have games against Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami.
Jacksonville (3-3, LW: -)
Finally they put together a comprehensive performance. That said they were a good matchup for the Broncos with their greatest strength (rushing offense) going against Denver's greatest weakness.
New England (3-2, LW: 5)
I watched the clash against the Chargers and this Patriots team looks awful. The run game is mediocre at best, the secondary can be targeted and then there's Matt Cassel. This guy is terrible. He's reduced the offense to slant passes. He missed Randy Moss open on a long ball by eight or nine yards, and he had three passing opportunities on a goal line play and screwed up all of them. The Patriots aren't making the playoffs with Cassel at the helm.
Baltimore (2-3, LW: 6)
Okay I was wrong, I'll admit it. The Ravens are going anywhere fast. The defense may be great, but it's overrated and it's not going to compensate for the horrible offense. Right now Joe Flacco is simply not a good player. A 1 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio is just awful.
I just want to say that for the first time this year I'm feeling pretty confident about the AFC playoff picture. Tennessee and Pittsburgh seem like pretty sure bets, and you have to expect the Bills to be in there. Obviously one of the Chargers and Broncos will win the division, and the other will probably get the Wild Card. New York, New England and Jacksonville are all a shot at the other Wild Card, but I like the Colts over all of them.
NFC
1. NY Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
The champs stay here at least until tomorrow night.
2. Arizona Cardinals (4-2, LW: 6)
Really? I think it has to be. Who else? The Cardinals have played as well as anyone over the past two weeks beating two of what most would consider to be the top six teams in the league. Kurt Warner runs the offense well, Edge James and Hightower represent a solid running game and Larry Fitzgerald is a freak.
3. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-2, LW: -)
After today I don't think anyone can argue with placing them above Carolina. The run game is good, the defense is excellent, and Jeff Garcia can manage an offense. Put it this way - the Bucs have lost two games this year, both on the road to decent teams by a combined margin of 7 points. Their four wins have come against four teams all at .500 or better by a combined margin of 51 points. Super Bowl team? Probably not. Playoff team? I'd say so.
4. Washington Redskins (4-2, LW: 2)
St. Louis hurts. On the road you could maybe justify it - new coach, players with something to prove - but at home there's no excuses. When Jason Campbell and Santana Moss don't have it going the Redskins offense looks painfully one-dimensional. Clinton Portis will only take this team so far.
5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2, LW: 4)
Enough said at the top really. The Cowboys along with the Chargers are the most talented team in the NFL, there's little question of that. Mentally though they might be the weakest. This team just makes dumb plays. They need to get their act together, and fast.
6. Green Bay Packers (3-3, LW: -)
Big win on the road against the Hawks, great performance from Rodgers. The offense with Rodgers, Jennings, Driver and Grant is dynamite if they can get it together. Driver and Grant need to lift.
On the outside looking in
Minnesota
a) putting up 12 points against Detroit is a worry, b) doing it at home is an even bigger one. The fire the coach chants in Minnesota were well warranted, this team was supposed to be going to the Super Bowl. Teams are just going to stuff Adrian Peterson all day, so a lot of matches are going to hinge on Gus Frerotte's arm. That's not good.
Atlanta
Sorry, still don't buy it. Beating the Bears the way they did was a fluke, there's no other way to put it. Where that game was at with 12 seconds to go or whatever, the Bears will win 98 times out of 100. It just happned to be one of those two times for Atlanta. Still haven't beaten a team with more wins than losses.
Chicago
Pretty incredible, that's the third game they absolutely should have won but lost. Giving new meaning to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Philadelphia
The season would have been flashing before their eyes at three quarter time against the Niners. The Eagles are a good team, but you have to question their all round ability to compete with the other teams in their division. I don't think the Eagles are as good as anyone in the NFC East let alone the Bucs, Panthers, Cardinals and even teams like the Bears and Packers can stand up to the Eagles.
Super Bowl pick
New York, New York.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NFL Week 6 picks
Last week: 6-8 (42-32)
Trying to atone for my miserable 6-8 from last week...
Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)
Two of the surprise teams of the year, one more so than the other. I still don't like Kyle Orton despite his decent stats - he inspires zero confidence. I'm actually pretty sure I'd take the QB/RB combo of Ryan/Turner over Orton/Forte. In spite of that I think the Bears win here. Atlanta comes back down to Earth after tight win in Lambeau and the Bears D comes up big. Chicago 27 Atlanta 20
Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-3)
Really important match-up for both teams here. This is make or break for the Colts. A loss here and they're 2-4, four games behind in the loss column to the Titans and competing with the Chargers, Patriots, Jags, Jets and co for the Wild Card. Baltimore should run with abandon against the worst rush defense in the league. Peyton Manning won't be on the field much, but I think Baltimore loses another game in the fourth quarter that they should have won. Indianapolis 19 Baltimore 16
Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)
Massive win for the Vikes on Monday Night to pretty much keep their season alive. They follow it up with a take care of business game at home against Detroit. Peterson will be wild. Minnesota 37 Detroit 21
Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)
Danger game for the Saints because the Raiders aren't that bad. That said Drew Brees doesn't let them lose this one. New Orleans 28 Oakland 23
Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2)
The Bengals are seemingly getting better each week. The Jets game against Arizona was probably their aberration game of the year. If the Jets are to be legitimate playoff contenders these are games they absolutely must win. NY Jets 27 Cincinnati 24
Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
Clash of the AFC South titans. Both teams play similar styles, great defense and pound it with a double-headed running game. The edge goes to Carolina in the passing game though. On a last quarter drive who do you want - Jeff Garcia throwing to Antonio Bryant, or Jake Delhomme throwing to Steve Smith? That outweighs home field advantage. Carolina 24 Tampa Bay 14
St Louis (0-5) at Washington (4-1) LOCK OF THE WEEK
Could be ugly. Very ugly. Washington 35 St. Louis 13
Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)
The Texans aren't as bad as they look. They've had a shocking schedule with their first four games on the road. They nearly beat the Colts and the Titans too. I like their chances here at home with the Wildcats, er, Dolphins coming back down to Earth. Houston 27 Miami 16
Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)
The Jags are really not a good football team. They looked atrocious on Monday night. The running game has become stagnant and the entire offense relies on David Garrard. The defense is no better either, susceptible to the pass. The Jags runners might go wild on the Denver D, but the Denver pass is going to do the same and worse to Jacksonville. Denver 28 Jacksonville 21
Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)
Being touted as a danger game all over the place, but Dallas will come out and re-assert their claim as the best team in football. Dallas 36 Arizona 17
Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)
Philadelphia might have to win all of their out-of-division matches to make the playoffs, shocking as that sounds. Don't pencil this in as a win though, Frank Gore, JT and the Niners aren't all that bad. That said when good teams need to win they generally do. Philadelphia 26 San Francisco 17.
Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)
If Seattle lose this one at home against a banged up out of sorts Green Bay I think you could just about call time on their season. If Hasselbeck plays I think they win, if he doesn't they don't. Green Bay 21 Seattle 17
New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) UPSET OF THE WEEK
One of the better rivalries in the game right now, and hands down the clash of the week. The Chargers might be the better team but New England are more balanced and better coached. Look for the Pats to place a nail over the San Diego coffin. New England 20 San Diego 15
NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)
Not exactly must-see TV for a Monday night clash. The Giants take care of business and Derek Anderson loses his business. New York 30 Cleveland 19
Trying to atone for my miserable 6-8 from last week...
Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)
Two of the surprise teams of the year, one more so than the other. I still don't like Kyle Orton despite his decent stats - he inspires zero confidence. I'm actually pretty sure I'd take the QB/RB combo of Ryan/Turner over Orton/Forte. In spite of that I think the Bears win here. Atlanta comes back down to Earth after tight win in Lambeau and the Bears D comes up big. Chicago 27 Atlanta 20
Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-3)
Really important match-up for both teams here. This is make or break for the Colts. A loss here and they're 2-4, four games behind in the loss column to the Titans and competing with the Chargers, Patriots, Jags, Jets and co for the Wild Card. Baltimore should run with abandon against the worst rush defense in the league. Peyton Manning won't be on the field much, but I think Baltimore loses another game in the fourth quarter that they should have won. Indianapolis 19 Baltimore 16
Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)
Massive win for the Vikes on Monday Night to pretty much keep their season alive. They follow it up with a take care of business game at home against Detroit. Peterson will be wild. Minnesota 37 Detroit 21
Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)
Danger game for the Saints because the Raiders aren't that bad. That said Drew Brees doesn't let them lose this one. New Orleans 28 Oakland 23
Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2)
The Bengals are seemingly getting better each week. The Jets game against Arizona was probably their aberration game of the year. If the Jets are to be legitimate playoff contenders these are games they absolutely must win. NY Jets 27 Cincinnati 24
Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
Clash of the AFC South titans. Both teams play similar styles, great defense and pound it with a double-headed running game. The edge goes to Carolina in the passing game though. On a last quarter drive who do you want - Jeff Garcia throwing to Antonio Bryant, or Jake Delhomme throwing to Steve Smith? That outweighs home field advantage. Carolina 24 Tampa Bay 14
St Louis (0-5) at Washington (4-1) LOCK OF THE WEEK
Could be ugly. Very ugly. Washington 35 St. Louis 13
Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)
The Texans aren't as bad as they look. They've had a shocking schedule with their first four games on the road. They nearly beat the Colts and the Titans too. I like their chances here at home with the Wildcats, er, Dolphins coming back down to Earth. Houston 27 Miami 16
Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)
The Jags are really not a good football team. They looked atrocious on Monday night. The running game has become stagnant and the entire offense relies on David Garrard. The defense is no better either, susceptible to the pass. The Jags runners might go wild on the Denver D, but the Denver pass is going to do the same and worse to Jacksonville. Denver 28 Jacksonville 21
Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)
Being touted as a danger game all over the place, but Dallas will come out and re-assert their claim as the best team in football. Dallas 36 Arizona 17
Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)
Philadelphia might have to win all of their out-of-division matches to make the playoffs, shocking as that sounds. Don't pencil this in as a win though, Frank Gore, JT and the Niners aren't all that bad. That said when good teams need to win they generally do. Philadelphia 26 San Francisco 17.
Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)
If Seattle lose this one at home against a banged up out of sorts Green Bay I think you could just about call time on their season. If Hasselbeck plays I think they win, if he doesn't they don't. Green Bay 21 Seattle 17
New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) UPSET OF THE WEEK
One of the better rivalries in the game right now, and hands down the clash of the week. The Chargers might be the better team but New England are more balanced and better coached. Look for the Pats to place a nail over the San Diego coffin. New England 20 San Diego 15
NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)
Not exactly must-see TV for a Monday night clash. The Giants take care of business and Derek Anderson loses his business. New York 30 Cleveland 19
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Someone has to win
The four teams left in baseball are all losers of sorts. We don't have teams like the wildly successful Yankees or Cardinals playing, we've got four teams all built in losing traditions.
The Phillies have just one World Series title, opposed to four losses, which is the lowest for any non-expansion team. Oh yeah and they've lost more matches than any other team in the sport. They've put together a decent team now, and with no clear favourite for the title they'll believe that they're a legitimate shot at their first championship in 28 years.
The Dodgers have six World Series to their credit, but they've lost twice that amount. That, and the heart and culture of the club was formed in their New York days getting beat up on by the Yankees on a regular basis. Right now this team is riding a hot streak, the hottest of the four teams left, and stands probably the better chance of coming out of the NL.
You can't talk about losing without mentioning the Red Sox and Rays, probably the two best examples of the lesser fate in baseball. The Rays are defined as losers. They lose. It's what they do, and what they do best. This is their first season over the 70 win mark, it's extraordinary. What's more extraordinary is that they're probably going in favourites against a team that has won two of the past four World Series titles.
That of course is the Boston Red Sox, who despite the recent success remain the most recognisable loser in all of sports. Unlike the Rays who have simply lost and lost again, the Red Sox won quite a few matches - they just lost all the ones that counted. Now though those days seem to be behind them, they're establishing a dynasty set to imitate the best days of their arch-rivals.
For the record, I like the Dodgers over the Phillies in 6. The offenses are a wash in my eyes. The Phillies might hit for more power but that Dodgers lineup with Furcal, Martin, Manny, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Blake and more is just as dangerous, and more balanced too. Seems like the Phillies depend way too much on Rollins, Howard and Utley, who are going to have to have a big series for the Phillies to stay close. Lowe-Billingsley-Kuroda tops Hamels-Myers-Moyer too. The Phillies might have the best bullpen in the NL, but it's not going to be a huge advantage because the Dodgers might run a close 2nd. In the end though it comes down to this - the Phillies struggled to take down a bad team in four games, while the Dodgers dominated a good team in three. I like the Dodgers.
Red Sox-Rays is virtually impossible to pick. I've yet to see a truly persuasive argument for either. Red Sox starting pitching is better, Rays defense is better, Red Sox offense is better, Rays bullpen is better. The greatest edge I think goes to the Rays in the bullpen area. In the middle innings you can genuinely count on guys like Bradford, Howell and Balfour to get guys out. Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima don't exactly inspire the same confidence. The Red Sox offense is a lot better than the Rays though it must be said. The Rays have one intimidating hitter (Longoria), the Red Sox have four and maybe five. The thing is though that of the four or five guys, David Ortiz is clearly struggling at the plate, J.D. Drew is injured, and Dustin Pedroia had one hit against the Angels. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkillis are good players, but bona fide superstars they are not. Jon Lester is clearly the best pitcher in this series, but the Rays might only have to deal with him twice. Matsuzaka is overrated and Beckett is a shadow of his former self right now. I'll take the Red Sox trio over Shields-Kazmir-Garza, but the gap isn't that great.
I really can't pick a winner here. As unfair as it may sound, I think this series comes down to Evan Longoria's bat. I figure their will be about four, maybe five situations where he'll be in a position where can change the game (bases loaded one out, runners on first and second two out, etc) and if he can come up big in two of three of those I think the Rays win the series. The Red Sox when healthy are clearly the better team, but with Beckett, Drew and Lowell all struggling I'm going with the Rays in 7.
The Phillies have just one World Series title, opposed to four losses, which is the lowest for any non-expansion team. Oh yeah and they've lost more matches than any other team in the sport. They've put together a decent team now, and with no clear favourite for the title they'll believe that they're a legitimate shot at their first championship in 28 years.
The Dodgers have six World Series to their credit, but they've lost twice that amount. That, and the heart and culture of the club was formed in their New York days getting beat up on by the Yankees on a regular basis. Right now this team is riding a hot streak, the hottest of the four teams left, and stands probably the better chance of coming out of the NL.
You can't talk about losing without mentioning the Red Sox and Rays, probably the two best examples of the lesser fate in baseball. The Rays are defined as losers. They lose. It's what they do, and what they do best. This is their first season over the 70 win mark, it's extraordinary. What's more extraordinary is that they're probably going in favourites against a team that has won two of the past four World Series titles.
That of course is the Boston Red Sox, who despite the recent success remain the most recognisable loser in all of sports. Unlike the Rays who have simply lost and lost again, the Red Sox won quite a few matches - they just lost all the ones that counted. Now though those days seem to be behind them, they're establishing a dynasty set to imitate the best days of their arch-rivals.
For the record, I like the Dodgers over the Phillies in 6. The offenses are a wash in my eyes. The Phillies might hit for more power but that Dodgers lineup with Furcal, Martin, Manny, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Blake and more is just as dangerous, and more balanced too. Seems like the Phillies depend way too much on Rollins, Howard and Utley, who are going to have to have a big series for the Phillies to stay close. Lowe-Billingsley-Kuroda tops Hamels-Myers-Moyer too. The Phillies might have the best bullpen in the NL, but it's not going to be a huge advantage because the Dodgers might run a close 2nd. In the end though it comes down to this - the Phillies struggled to take down a bad team in four games, while the Dodgers dominated a good team in three. I like the Dodgers.
Red Sox-Rays is virtually impossible to pick. I've yet to see a truly persuasive argument for either. Red Sox starting pitching is better, Rays defense is better, Red Sox offense is better, Rays bullpen is better. The greatest edge I think goes to the Rays in the bullpen area. In the middle innings you can genuinely count on guys like Bradford, Howell and Balfour to get guys out. Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima don't exactly inspire the same confidence. The Red Sox offense is a lot better than the Rays though it must be said. The Rays have one intimidating hitter (Longoria), the Red Sox have four and maybe five. The thing is though that of the four or five guys, David Ortiz is clearly struggling at the plate, J.D. Drew is injured, and Dustin Pedroia had one hit against the Angels. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkillis are good players, but bona fide superstars they are not. Jon Lester is clearly the best pitcher in this series, but the Rays might only have to deal with him twice. Matsuzaka is overrated and Beckett is a shadow of his former self right now. I'll take the Red Sox trio over Shields-Kazmir-Garza, but the gap isn't that great.
I really can't pick a winner here. As unfair as it may sound, I think this series comes down to Evan Longoria's bat. I figure their will be about four, maybe five situations where he'll be in a position where can change the game (bases loaded one out, runners on first and second two out, etc) and if he can come up big in two of three of those I think the Rays win the series. The Red Sox when healthy are clearly the better team, but with Beckett, Drew and Lowell all struggling I'm going with the Rays in 7.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
'07 powers failing
AFC
1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
I don't think anyone can question this team's ranking now. A perfect 5-0 and the undisputed class of the AFC. A 2 1/2 game lead in the AFC South already, this team is built for the long run. Hands down the best defense in the league, a great running game and now a quarterback who can lead them from behind in the dying minutes. At the beginning of the year the schedule looked brutal, but now that we've seen the Colts, Jaguars and Texans to be more or less impotent the run home doesn't look too difficult now.
2. Denver Broncos (4-1, LW: 4)
I'm not in love with this ranking but I think it can be justified. The offense is obviously explosive, the best in the AFC. The win over Tampa Bay was massive, if the defense can play like that all year then the Broncos can win a playoff game or two. The major reason for the high ranking though is the shockingly easy schedule they have.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 2)
Not quite time to panic but pretty close. This is now three consecutive sub-par performances in a row from the Bills, but this time they didn't have Trent Edwards to bail them out in the end. The bye week has come at the right time, hopefully they can get their act together. The home game against San Diego the week after is going to be huge.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 6)
Have to give a lot of credit to Ben Roeslithberger, that's two weeks in a row he's practically willed his team to victory. The helmet catch was incredible, but Big Ben was pulling an Eli on pretty much every play in that second half. The bye couldn't have come sooner.
5. New England Patriots (3-1, LW: 4)
Start to like their chances as the division champions. The team we saw against San Francisco is probably going to be the Patriots team we see for the rest of the year. This Pats team has all the makings of a 10-6 unit.
6. Baltimore Ravens (2-2, LW: -)
Two losses in a row moves you up in my rankings. The Steelers and Titans are two quality teams and Baltimore probably should have beaten both of them. The defense is fantastic and if Joe Flacco can get it together this team is an outside chance at the playoffs.
On the outside looking in:
San Diego (2-3, LW: 3)
Who knows with these Chargers. They looked so good against New York I think I might have overrated them. No excuses for losing to Miami. Phil Rivers has come back down to Earth, LT is injured and the defense is terrible. With Denver's lead the Chargers absolutely must beat New England.
Miami (2-2, LW: -)
This Miami team is extraordinary. To be a 1-15 team one year and then beat the two teams that played off in the championship game convincingly the next is amazing. I still can't buy them totally though. I want to see them take care of Houston first.
Indianapolis (2-2, LW: -)
Speaking of extraordinary, how is this team not 0-4? And even more to the point, how is this team in a position to possibly being 0-4? This Colts team has played terribly, but by virtue of luck and some Manning they can still turn it around. They can't afford to keep on playing like this though, the upcoming stretch is brutal. Baltimore, @ Green Bay, @ Tennessee, New England, @ Pittsburgh. Ouch.
Jacksonville (2-3, LW: -)
This team is really not good. I watched the Sunday night clash against Pittsburgh and this team inspires no confidence. The defense is mediocre and the running game is easily stuffed. They're basically dependent on David Garrard's arm to win matches, and that's not really a good thing. I can't see this team making the playoffs, winning half their games is going to be hard enough a task.
NFC
1. New York Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
Everything's shaping up nicely for the G-men. Eli has well and truly taken the leap now, the defense is fantastic and the running game is great too. The best all-round team in the game right now.
2. Washington Redskins (4-1, LW: -)
Okay, now I'm buying it. You can write off one remarkable win, but to beat Dallas and Phildadelphia back-to-back on the road means your the real deal. The defense is stout and Clinton Portis might be the best back in the game right now. The schedule gets much easier now too. A real danger team.
3. Carolina Panthers (4-1, LW: 3)
You know, if I had to bet on one team to make the playoffs it might well be these Panthers. The NFC South is really not that strong, and the Panthers are just a fantastic all round team. Good on defense, good in the air, good on the ground. They just don't seem to have the extra level to maybe match it with the truly elite, but we'll see.
4. Dallas Cowboys (4-1, LW: 2)
The half-hearted win against the Bengals might be more troubling than the loss to the Redskins. This is a game that they absolutely should have won by four touchdowns, but were one fluke play away from having to deal with Carson Palmer marching down the field to win the match. They'll still make the playoffs, but the defense is beatable and Tony Romo hasn't shown himself to be the quarterback we thought he was.
5. Minnesota Vikings (2-3, LW: -)
With Tampa's and Chicago's impotent offenses, Green Bay's injuries and inexperience, I like the Vikes to come out of the North right now. The run game and the defense against the run is one of the best in the league. You can not run against this time. Loved Gus Frerotte bringing the deep ball on Monday night too.
6. Arizona Cardinals (3-2, LW: -)
Three weeks, three different winners I have coming out of the dreary West. After Seattle's performance on the weekend I don't think you can consider them at this point. The 49ers are close, but the Cardinals might be better all round.
On the outside looking in:
Chicago (3-2, LW: 5)
I just don't like the offense. Kyle Orton is not a good quarterback, and against good teams when they fall behind they're going to struggle. Really struggle.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, LW: 4)
A victim of their surroundings. In the NFC West the Eagles might go 13-3 and get a bye in the first week. But in the East the Eagles look like a 9-7 team that finishes outside the playoff bracket. They are a very good team, but with Westbrooke's troubles they just aren't quite there.
Tampa Bay (3-2, LW: -)
Putting up 13 points against Denver is not a good sign. The quarterback situation is too messed up to consider this team a contender.
Green Bay (2-3, LW: -)
I still like this team, but losing to Atlanta at home is worrying. By the time they get it together with health they might be too far out to contend.
Super Bowl pick: It's the New York Giants. The most complete team in the league now that Eli Manning has truly made the team his own. More composed than Dallas, better than the Redskins, and their advantage on offense outweighs their disadvantage on defense when compared to the Titans.
Jxxxx Bxxxxx Sxxxxxx
1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
I don't think anyone can question this team's ranking now. A perfect 5-0 and the undisputed class of the AFC. A 2 1/2 game lead in the AFC South already, this team is built for the long run. Hands down the best defense in the league, a great running game and now a quarterback who can lead them from behind in the dying minutes. At the beginning of the year the schedule looked brutal, but now that we've seen the Colts, Jaguars and Texans to be more or less impotent the run home doesn't look too difficult now.
2. Denver Broncos (4-1, LW: 4)
I'm not in love with this ranking but I think it can be justified. The offense is obviously explosive, the best in the AFC. The win over Tampa Bay was massive, if the defense can play like that all year then the Broncos can win a playoff game or two. The major reason for the high ranking though is the shockingly easy schedule they have.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 2)
Not quite time to panic but pretty close. This is now three consecutive sub-par performances in a row from the Bills, but this time they didn't have Trent Edwards to bail them out in the end. The bye week has come at the right time, hopefully they can get their act together. The home game against San Diego the week after is going to be huge.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 6)
Have to give a lot of credit to Ben Roeslithberger, that's two weeks in a row he's practically willed his team to victory. The helmet catch was incredible, but Big Ben was pulling an Eli on pretty much every play in that second half. The bye couldn't have come sooner.
5. New England Patriots (3-1, LW: 4)
Start to like their chances as the division champions. The team we saw against San Francisco is probably going to be the Patriots team we see for the rest of the year. This Pats team has all the makings of a 10-6 unit.
6. Baltimore Ravens (2-2, LW: -)
Two losses in a row moves you up in my rankings. The Steelers and Titans are two quality teams and Baltimore probably should have beaten both of them. The defense is fantastic and if Joe Flacco can get it together this team is an outside chance at the playoffs.
On the outside looking in:
San Diego (2-3, LW: 3)
Who knows with these Chargers. They looked so good against New York I think I might have overrated them. No excuses for losing to Miami. Phil Rivers has come back down to Earth, LT is injured and the defense is terrible. With Denver's lead the Chargers absolutely must beat New England.
Miami (2-2, LW: -)
This Miami team is extraordinary. To be a 1-15 team one year and then beat the two teams that played off in the championship game convincingly the next is amazing. I still can't buy them totally though. I want to see them take care of Houston first.
Indianapolis (2-2, LW: -)
Speaking of extraordinary, how is this team not 0-4? And even more to the point, how is this team in a position to possibly being 0-4? This Colts team has played terribly, but by virtue of luck and some Manning they can still turn it around. They can't afford to keep on playing like this though, the upcoming stretch is brutal. Baltimore, @ Green Bay, @ Tennessee, New England, @ Pittsburgh. Ouch.
Jacksonville (2-3, LW: -)
This team is really not good. I watched the Sunday night clash against Pittsburgh and this team inspires no confidence. The defense is mediocre and the running game is easily stuffed. They're basically dependent on David Garrard's arm to win matches, and that's not really a good thing. I can't see this team making the playoffs, winning half their games is going to be hard enough a task.
NFC
1. New York Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
Everything's shaping up nicely for the G-men. Eli has well and truly taken the leap now, the defense is fantastic and the running game is great too. The best all-round team in the game right now.
2. Washington Redskins (4-1, LW: -)
Okay, now I'm buying it. You can write off one remarkable win, but to beat Dallas and Phildadelphia back-to-back on the road means your the real deal. The defense is stout and Clinton Portis might be the best back in the game right now. The schedule gets much easier now too. A real danger team.
3. Carolina Panthers (4-1, LW: 3)
You know, if I had to bet on one team to make the playoffs it might well be these Panthers. The NFC South is really not that strong, and the Panthers are just a fantastic all round team. Good on defense, good in the air, good on the ground. They just don't seem to have the extra level to maybe match it with the truly elite, but we'll see.
4. Dallas Cowboys (4-1, LW: 2)
The half-hearted win against the Bengals might be more troubling than the loss to the Redskins. This is a game that they absolutely should have won by four touchdowns, but were one fluke play away from having to deal with Carson Palmer marching down the field to win the match. They'll still make the playoffs, but the defense is beatable and Tony Romo hasn't shown himself to be the quarterback we thought he was.
5. Minnesota Vikings (2-3, LW: -)
With Tampa's and Chicago's impotent offenses, Green Bay's injuries and inexperience, I like the Vikes to come out of the North right now. The run game and the defense against the run is one of the best in the league. You can not run against this time. Loved Gus Frerotte bringing the deep ball on Monday night too.
6. Arizona Cardinals (3-2, LW: -)
Three weeks, three different winners I have coming out of the dreary West. After Seattle's performance on the weekend I don't think you can consider them at this point. The 49ers are close, but the Cardinals might be better all round.
On the outside looking in:
Chicago (3-2, LW: 5)
I just don't like the offense. Kyle Orton is not a good quarterback, and against good teams when they fall behind they're going to struggle. Really struggle.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, LW: 4)
A victim of their surroundings. In the NFC West the Eagles might go 13-3 and get a bye in the first week. But in the East the Eagles look like a 9-7 team that finishes outside the playoff bracket. They are a very good team, but with Westbrooke's troubles they just aren't quite there.
Tampa Bay (3-2, LW: -)
Putting up 13 points against Denver is not a good sign. The quarterback situation is too messed up to consider this team a contender.
Green Bay (2-3, LW: -)
I still like this team, but losing to Atlanta at home is worrying. By the time they get it together with health they might be too far out to contend.
Super Bowl pick: It's the New York Giants. The most complete team in the league now that Eli Manning has truly made the team his own. More composed than Dallas, better than the Redskins, and their advantage on offense outweighs their disadvantage on defense when compared to the Titans.
Jxxxx Bxxxxx Sxxxxxx
Saturday, October 4, 2008
NFL week 5 picks
Last week: 8-5 (Season: 36-24)
Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)
Carolina are in great shape to really grab hold of the NFC South these upcoming weeks. After hosting Kansas they go @Tampa, New Orleans, Arizona, BYE, @Oakland, Detroit, @Atlanta. In this upcoming stretch before the bye even if they only go 2-2, they should be looking to take all three games after the bye which would have them at 8-3 and a near lock for the playoffs. 2-2 is a conservative estimate though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers didn't drop a game until Week 13 at Green Bay. Love the look of them. Steve Smith played a good game against Atlanta, and Jake Delhomme is a quarterback that can take them deep into January. Kansas City are pretenders, Larry Johnson won't have another game like that this year. The Panthers D is a lot tougher than Denver's as well. Carolina 31 Kansas City 14
Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-4)
The goal line stand against Philly, and Brian Westbrook's absence, probably saved Chicago's season last Sunday. 1-3 in a relatively decent division is a hole that would be difficult to escape. Minnesota will probably tell you that come January. Must-win take care of business game here for the Bears. Possible danger game, I think the Lions are better than what they've shown so far this year. If the Lions get ahead early, say 14-3 or something, they're a great chance to go and win. Kyle Orton is not a quarterback you want to trust to lead you when you're behind. That said I think Devon Hester is due for a big special teams play and the Chicago defense should do enough to win. Chicago 30 Detroit 24
Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)
Really important game for Green Bay here, for obvious reasons. Green Bay was my Super Bowl pick out of the NFC in the preseason and two weeks in that was looking pretty good. Now not so much. The secondary is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is questionable and Ryan Grant has done nothing. That said I think come Sunday they grind out a tough win, with or without Rodgers. I think Ryan Grant breaks loose and the Packers get back over .500. Green Bay 21 Atlanta 17
San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)
This Miami team is impossible to figure. They beat the Patriots, were one play from beating the relatively decent Jets, but were blown out by the mediocre Cardinals. I think the Jets game is probably the best indication of where they stand. I'm guessing Ronnie Brown gets shut down by the Chargers defense, LT goes wild and Phil Rivers throws multiple touchdown passes. San Diego 37 Miami 21.
Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)
Must win here for the Giants to assert themselves at the top of the NFC East. They have to take care of business these coming weeks (Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) because the schedule afterwards is not fun. After Week 7 they don't have an easy game. Seattle looms as a danger team. Matt Hasselbeck is healthier and has some toys now. No Plax will matter. Similar to the Cincinnati win I think the Giants escape in a close one. NY Giants 24 Seattle 23
Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
I'm still not buying these Redskins. They looked so bad against New York back in week one. They escaped narrowly against the Saints and Cardinals which makes the win in Dallas all the more incredible. Common sense dictates that they're better than the loss in the Meadowlands, but not as good as the win in Texas. On the other hand I think Philly are the real deal. In two games that could have gone either way they came up on the short-end. They could easily be 4-0. A real must-win for them here, a 2-3 hole in the East could be fatal. That enough should be inspiration to get them over the line. Philadelphia 27 Washington 20
Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) UPSET OF THE WEEK
This game could go to OT with the scores locked at 0-0. Both defenses are fantastic and both offenses are pretty impotent. At this point in time I think the Titans are the class of the AFC, but I think the Ravens are a team that can give them some problems. I like the look of this Ravens team, they were very unlucky not to beat the Steelers and go to 3-0. With some plays by the defense and special teams, as well as the hostile Baltimore crowd I think the Ravens eke out a tough win here. Baltimore 14 Tennessee 9
Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)
Massive danger game here for the Colts. They haven't looked good this year, and away to the Texans, a decent home team that isn't as bad as advertised, they could be in some trouble. Steve Slaton will probably go wild against the weak Colts run defense, but Peyton Manning can have a day out against this defense. It'll be tight, but the Colts should get over the line. Indianapolis 28 Houston 20
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)
Two teams not as good as their records indicate. The Broncos could, and probably should, be 1-3 and the Bucs have won a pair of games that could have gone either way. It's a great offense against a great defense, but the game will probably be won or lost on the other side. Trust Earnest Graham to have a good game and run the clock to keep Jay Cutler off the field. Tampa Bay 24 Denver 20
Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)
Hard to figure out this Arizona team. Giving up 56 points to the Jets offense, a slightly above offense at best, is unforgivable. At home they should bounce back a bit, but I still like the Bills in this game. The Bills have played back-to-back mediocre grind it out matches against weak teams, so they'll want to put in a good performance against the Cards. Expect Trent Edwards to have a good game against the weak Arizona secondary. Buffalo 34 Arizona 24
New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)
We'll have a much better idea of where the Pats stand after this game. Both of these teams are coming off hugely disappointing performances, but the Pats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong. The Miami game was so bizarre and unlikely I think you have to throw it out the door. The Patriots team I expect to see for the rest of the season will resemble the team that played smart football to beat the Jets back in week two. A winnable game for San Francisco here, but New England should get over the line. New England 20 San Francisco 13
Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)
A winless team without its starting quarterback against a juggernaut with something to prove. Not a good combination for Bengals fans. This could get ugly, and I mean really ugly. It should be high scoring enough that the Bengals don't embarass themselves too much. Dallas 47 Cincinnati 24
Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The injuries that the Steelers have suffered combined with the short turnaround after the emotion charged win against Baltimore adds up nicely for Jacksonville. Jacksonville still hasn't played a comprehensive game yet, but they should be able to show the Steelers that they can win without the heroism of Josh Scobee. Jacksonville 32 Pittsburgh 14
Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)
If the Vikings are down at any stage in the last quarter the season will be flashing before their eyes. The alleged Super Bowl contenders are a good shot at being 1-4 after Monday night's clash with the Saints. The Vikings pass defense is its greatest weakness, not a good thing with Drew Brees on the mound. 400 yards from Brees is more likely than not. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 24
Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)
Carolina are in great shape to really grab hold of the NFC South these upcoming weeks. After hosting Kansas they go @Tampa, New Orleans, Arizona, BYE, @Oakland, Detroit, @Atlanta. In this upcoming stretch before the bye even if they only go 2-2, they should be looking to take all three games after the bye which would have them at 8-3 and a near lock for the playoffs. 2-2 is a conservative estimate though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers didn't drop a game until Week 13 at Green Bay. Love the look of them. Steve Smith played a good game against Atlanta, and Jake Delhomme is a quarterback that can take them deep into January. Kansas City are pretenders, Larry Johnson won't have another game like that this year. The Panthers D is a lot tougher than Denver's as well. Carolina 31 Kansas City 14
Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-4)
The goal line stand against Philly, and Brian Westbrook's absence, probably saved Chicago's season last Sunday. 1-3 in a relatively decent division is a hole that would be difficult to escape. Minnesota will probably tell you that come January. Must-win take care of business game here for the Bears. Possible danger game, I think the Lions are better than what they've shown so far this year. If the Lions get ahead early, say 14-3 or something, they're a great chance to go and win. Kyle Orton is not a quarterback you want to trust to lead you when you're behind. That said I think Devon Hester is due for a big special teams play and the Chicago defense should do enough to win. Chicago 30 Detroit 24
Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)
Really important game for Green Bay here, for obvious reasons. Green Bay was my Super Bowl pick out of the NFC in the preseason and two weeks in that was looking pretty good. Now not so much. The secondary is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is questionable and Ryan Grant has done nothing. That said I think come Sunday they grind out a tough win, with or without Rodgers. I think Ryan Grant breaks loose and the Packers get back over .500. Green Bay 21 Atlanta 17
San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)
This Miami team is impossible to figure. They beat the Patriots, were one play from beating the relatively decent Jets, but were blown out by the mediocre Cardinals. I think the Jets game is probably the best indication of where they stand. I'm guessing Ronnie Brown gets shut down by the Chargers defense, LT goes wild and Phil Rivers throws multiple touchdown passes. San Diego 37 Miami 21.
Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)
Must win here for the Giants to assert themselves at the top of the NFC East. They have to take care of business these coming weeks (Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) because the schedule afterwards is not fun. After Week 7 they don't have an easy game. Seattle looms as a danger team. Matt Hasselbeck is healthier and has some toys now. No Plax will matter. Similar to the Cincinnati win I think the Giants escape in a close one. NY Giants 24 Seattle 23
Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
I'm still not buying these Redskins. They looked so bad against New York back in week one. They escaped narrowly against the Saints and Cardinals which makes the win in Dallas all the more incredible. Common sense dictates that they're better than the loss in the Meadowlands, but not as good as the win in Texas. On the other hand I think Philly are the real deal. In two games that could have gone either way they came up on the short-end. They could easily be 4-0. A real must-win for them here, a 2-3 hole in the East could be fatal. That enough should be inspiration to get them over the line. Philadelphia 27 Washington 20
Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) UPSET OF THE WEEK
This game could go to OT with the scores locked at 0-0. Both defenses are fantastic and both offenses are pretty impotent. At this point in time I think the Titans are the class of the AFC, but I think the Ravens are a team that can give them some problems. I like the look of this Ravens team, they were very unlucky not to beat the Steelers and go to 3-0. With some plays by the defense and special teams, as well as the hostile Baltimore crowd I think the Ravens eke out a tough win here. Baltimore 14 Tennessee 9
Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)
Massive danger game here for the Colts. They haven't looked good this year, and away to the Texans, a decent home team that isn't as bad as advertised, they could be in some trouble. Steve Slaton will probably go wild against the weak Colts run defense, but Peyton Manning can have a day out against this defense. It'll be tight, but the Colts should get over the line. Indianapolis 28 Houston 20
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)
Two teams not as good as their records indicate. The Broncos could, and probably should, be 1-3 and the Bucs have won a pair of games that could have gone either way. It's a great offense against a great defense, but the game will probably be won or lost on the other side. Trust Earnest Graham to have a good game and run the clock to keep Jay Cutler off the field. Tampa Bay 24 Denver 20
Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)
Hard to figure out this Arizona team. Giving up 56 points to the Jets offense, a slightly above offense at best, is unforgivable. At home they should bounce back a bit, but I still like the Bills in this game. The Bills have played back-to-back mediocre grind it out matches against weak teams, so they'll want to put in a good performance against the Cards. Expect Trent Edwards to have a good game against the weak Arizona secondary. Buffalo 34 Arizona 24
New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)
We'll have a much better idea of where the Pats stand after this game. Both of these teams are coming off hugely disappointing performances, but the Pats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong. The Miami game was so bizarre and unlikely I think you have to throw it out the door. The Patriots team I expect to see for the rest of the season will resemble the team that played smart football to beat the Jets back in week two. A winnable game for San Francisco here, but New England should get over the line. New England 20 San Francisco 13
Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)
A winless team without its starting quarterback against a juggernaut with something to prove. Not a good combination for Bengals fans. This could get ugly, and I mean really ugly. It should be high scoring enough that the Bengals don't embarass themselves too much. Dallas 47 Cincinnati 24
Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The injuries that the Steelers have suffered combined with the short turnaround after the emotion charged win against Baltimore adds up nicely for Jacksonville. Jacksonville still hasn't played a comprehensive game yet, but they should be able to show the Steelers that they can win without the heroism of Josh Scobee. Jacksonville 32 Pittsburgh 14
Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)
If the Vikings are down at any stage in the last quarter the season will be flashing before their eyes. The alleged Super Bowl contenders are a good shot at being 1-4 after Monday night's clash with the Saints. The Vikings pass defense is its greatest weakness, not a good thing with Drew Brees on the mound. 400 yards from Brees is more likely than not. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 24
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Playoff predictions
Thanks to Danks and Thome the White Sox are in the playoffs. The matchups are now set, and games kick-off tomorrow. No better time to analyse them.
NL
Phildadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Expect a few 15 run games. The balance of quality offense vs. quality pitching here is shocking. The Brewers have Sabathia and that's it. Philly has Hamels (not so good lately), Myers (even worse) and Moyer (64 years old). Offensively though we're going to see Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. It probably won't be pretty but the series will be exciting.
Hard to see the Phillies losing this series. Offensively the teams are a wash, with maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. But on the pitching front the Phillies win out. You have to expect one of Hamels and Myers to pitch a great game, Jamie Moyer has been fantastic of late, and Joe Blanton is servicable. The Brewers have Sabathia and then literally no one. The fact that the Phillies beat the Brewers 5-1 in the season series (with a recent sweep) doesn't bode well for the people of Milwaukee. Phillies sweep.
Cubs vs. LA Dodgers
The best team in the league against the hottest. Top to bottom the Cubs are hands down the best team in the NL and the best placed to go to the World Series. That said playing the hot Dodgers in a 5 game series is no sure thing. If the Dodgers can grab one of two in Chicago all of a sudden they're in excellent shape. The Cubs have some questions. Zambrano has been out of sorts, Harden is a 6-inning pitcher, and Ryan Dempster has never done this before. A big hit here or there and catching a few breaks could have the Dodgers going to the NLCS. That said you have to like the Cubs. The Dodgers hot streak has come against mediocre teams and the Cubs have been the best team since day one. I think Billingsley gets the win against Zambrano but the Cubs take two in LA. Cubs in 4
AL
Tampa Bay vs. White Sox
The White Sox are the worst team in the postseason. They owe more to the failures of Cleveland and Detroit than they will ever know. Some big hits and clutch pitching has aided them over the past three days and they'll enter Tampa full of confidence. But aside from the Ramirez slam against the Tigers yesterday the offense without Carlos Quentin has been stagnant and the rotation of Vasquez, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd is far from frightening. In fact you'd take the Rays top three guys over any of them. The Rays are a better team offensively, defensively and on the pitching front. Add homefield advantage to that and nothing looks good for Chicago. Tampa Bay sweep
LA Angels vs. Boston
The marquee matchup of the first round. You could make a case that this is the World Series right here, the two most complete teams in baseball. They say that the 5 game format helps the weaker team, but here I think it favours Anaheim. They only have to face Josh Beckett once, and the Sox have less time to get Lowell and Drew healthy. I think the series might come down to the huge game one matchup of Lester and Lackey. A must-win for the Angels because I don't see the Angels winning at Fenway. I don't they'll have to though. Angels in 5
NL
Phildadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Expect a few 15 run games. The balance of quality offense vs. quality pitching here is shocking. The Brewers have Sabathia and that's it. Philly has Hamels (not so good lately), Myers (even worse) and Moyer (64 years old). Offensively though we're going to see Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. It probably won't be pretty but the series will be exciting.
Hard to see the Phillies losing this series. Offensively the teams are a wash, with maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. But on the pitching front the Phillies win out. You have to expect one of Hamels and Myers to pitch a great game, Jamie Moyer has been fantastic of late, and Joe Blanton is servicable. The Brewers have Sabathia and then literally no one. The fact that the Phillies beat the Brewers 5-1 in the season series (with a recent sweep) doesn't bode well for the people of Milwaukee. Phillies sweep.
Cubs vs. LA Dodgers
The best team in the league against the hottest. Top to bottom the Cubs are hands down the best team in the NL and the best placed to go to the World Series. That said playing the hot Dodgers in a 5 game series is no sure thing. If the Dodgers can grab one of two in Chicago all of a sudden they're in excellent shape. The Cubs have some questions. Zambrano has been out of sorts, Harden is a 6-inning pitcher, and Ryan Dempster has never done this before. A big hit here or there and catching a few breaks could have the Dodgers going to the NLCS. That said you have to like the Cubs. The Dodgers hot streak has come against mediocre teams and the Cubs have been the best team since day one. I think Billingsley gets the win against Zambrano but the Cubs take two in LA. Cubs in 4
AL
Tampa Bay vs. White Sox
The White Sox are the worst team in the postseason. They owe more to the failures of Cleveland and Detroit than they will ever know. Some big hits and clutch pitching has aided them over the past three days and they'll enter Tampa full of confidence. But aside from the Ramirez slam against the Tigers yesterday the offense without Carlos Quentin has been stagnant and the rotation of Vasquez, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd is far from frightening. In fact you'd take the Rays top three guys over any of them. The Rays are a better team offensively, defensively and on the pitching front. Add homefield advantage to that and nothing looks good for Chicago. Tampa Bay sweep
LA Angels vs. Boston
The marquee matchup of the first round. You could make a case that this is the World Series right here, the two most complete teams in baseball. They say that the 5 game format helps the weaker team, but here I think it favours Anaheim. They only have to face Josh Beckett once, and the Sox have less time to get Lowell and Drew healthy. I think the series might come down to the huge game one matchup of Lester and Lackey. A must-win for the Angels because I don't see the Angels winning at Fenway. I don't they'll have to though. Angels in 5
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