NFL week 5 picks

Last week: 8-5 (Season: 36-24)

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)
Carolina are in great shape to really grab hold of the NFC South these upcoming weeks. After hosting Kansas they go @Tampa, New Orleans, Arizona, BYE, @Oakland, Detroit, @Atlanta. In this upcoming stretch before the bye even if they only go 2-2, they should be looking to take all three games after the bye which would have them at 8-3 and a near lock for the playoffs. 2-2 is a conservative estimate though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers didn't drop a game until Week 13 at Green Bay. Love the look of them. Steve Smith played a good game against Atlanta, and Jake Delhomme is a quarterback that can take them deep into January. Kansas City are pretenders, Larry Johnson won't have another game like that this year. The Panthers D is a lot tougher than Denver's as well. Carolina 31 Kansas City 14

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-4)
The goal line stand against Philly, and Brian Westbrook's absence, probably saved Chicago's season last Sunday. 1-3 in a relatively decent division is a hole that would be difficult to escape. Minnesota will probably tell you that come January. Must-win take care of business game here for the Bears. Possible danger game, I think the Lions are better than what they've shown so far this year. If the Lions get ahead early, say 14-3 or something, they're a great chance to go and win. Kyle Orton is not a quarterback you want to trust to lead you when you're behind. That said I think Devon Hester is due for a big special teams play and the Chicago defense should do enough to win. Chicago 30 Detroit 24

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)
Really important game for Green Bay here, for obvious reasons. Green Bay was my Super Bowl pick out of the NFC in the preseason and two weeks in that was looking pretty good. Now not so much. The secondary is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is questionable and Ryan Grant has done nothing. That said I think come Sunday they grind out a tough win, with or without Rodgers. I think Ryan Grant breaks loose and the Packers get back over .500. Green Bay 21 Atlanta 17

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)
This Miami team is impossible to figure. They beat the Patriots, were one play from beating the relatively decent Jets, but were blown out by the mediocre Cardinals. I think the Jets game is probably the best indication of where they stand. I'm guessing Ronnie Brown gets shut down by the Chargers defense, LT goes wild and Phil Rivers throws multiple touchdown passes. San Diego 37 Miami 21.

Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)
Must win here for the Giants to assert themselves at the top of the NFC East. They have to take care of business these coming weeks (Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) because the schedule afterwards is not fun. After Week 7 they don't have an easy game. Seattle looms as a danger team. Matt Hasselbeck is healthier and has some toys now. No Plax will matter. Similar to the Cincinnati win I think the Giants escape in a close one. NY Giants 24 Seattle 23

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
I'm still not buying these Redskins. They looked so bad against New York back in week one. They escaped narrowly against the Saints and Cardinals which makes the win in Dallas all the more incredible. Common sense dictates that they're better than the loss in the Meadowlands, but not as good as the win in Texas. On the other hand I think Philly are the real deal. In two games that could have gone either way they came up on the short-end. They could easily be 4-0. A real must-win for them here, a 2-3 hole in the East could be fatal. That enough should be inspiration to get them over the line. Philadelphia 27 Washington 20

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) UPSET OF THE WEEK
This game could go to OT with the scores locked at 0-0. Both defenses are fantastic and both offenses are pretty impotent. At this point in time I think the Titans are the class of the AFC, but I think the Ravens are a team that can give them some problems. I like the look of this Ravens team, they were very unlucky not to beat the Steelers and go to 3-0. With some plays by the defense and special teams, as well as the hostile Baltimore crowd I think the Ravens eke out a tough win here. Baltimore 14 Tennessee 9

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)
Massive danger game here for the Colts. They haven't looked good this year, and away to the Texans, a decent home team that isn't as bad as advertised, they could be in some trouble. Steve Slaton will probably go wild against the weak Colts run defense, but Peyton Manning can have a day out against this defense. It'll be tight, but the Colts should get over the line. Indianapolis 28 Houston 20

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)
Two teams not as good as their records indicate. The Broncos could, and probably should, be 1-3 and the Bucs have won a pair of games that could have gone either way. It's a great offense against a great defense, but the game will probably be won or lost on the other side. Trust Earnest Graham to have a good game and run the clock to keep Jay Cutler off the field. Tampa Bay 24 Denver 20

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)
Hard to figure out this Arizona team. Giving up 56 points to the Jets offense, a slightly above offense at best, is unforgivable. At home they should bounce back a bit, but I still like the Bills in this game. The Bills have played back-to-back mediocre grind it out matches against weak teams, so they'll want to put in a good performance against the Cards. Expect Trent Edwards to have a good game against the weak Arizona secondary. Buffalo 34 Arizona 24

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)
We'll have a much better idea of where the Pats stand after this game. Both of these teams are coming off hugely disappointing performances, but the Pats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong. The Miami game was so bizarre and unlikely I think you have to throw it out the door. The Patriots team I expect to see for the rest of the season will resemble the team that played smart football to beat the Jets back in week two. A winnable game for San Francisco here, but New England should get over the line. New England 20 San Francisco 13

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)
A winless team without its starting quarterback against a juggernaut with something to prove. Not a good combination for Bengals fans. This could get ugly, and I mean really ugly. It should be high scoring enough that the Bengals don't embarass themselves too much. Dallas 47 Cincinnati 24

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The injuries that the Steelers have suffered combined with the short turnaround after the emotion charged win against Baltimore adds up nicely for Jacksonville. Jacksonville still hasn't played a comprehensive game yet, but they should be able to show the Steelers that they can win without the heroism of Josh Scobee. Jacksonville 32 Pittsburgh 14

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)
If the Vikings are down at any stage in the last quarter the season will be flashing before their eyes. The alleged Super Bowl contenders are a good shot at being 1-4 after Monday night's clash with the Saints. The Vikings pass defense is its greatest weakness, not a good thing with Drew Brees on the mound. 400 yards from Brees is more likely than not. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 24