Last week: 3-1 (season: 6-5-1)
ARIZONA (+2) over Atlanta
Atlanta may be the better team, but on the road with a rookie quarterback against a playoff-seasoned veteran in a stadium with fans going crazy is not a situation I like. The shaky way the Falcons beat the Rams last week in a match they absolutely had to win doesn't bode well either.
Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
If Atlanta can get a win in Minnesota in a must-win game I think the Eagles can too. I'm taking the Eagles for three reasons; 1) 44-6 against a desperate and fully stocked Cowboys team is more impressive than 20-19 against a team of reserves with nothing to play for, 2) Adrian Peterson is having trouble protecting the ball, and coming up against an Eagles team that ravaged the ball from Dallas is not the antidote, 3) Tarvaris Jackson.
Baltimore (-3) over MIAMI
Baltimore has as good a chance as anyone to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens are playing as well as anyone right now, and it's entirely conceivable that they could beat Miami, Tennessee and Pittsburgh en route to the Super Bowl. Miami may be the worst 11-5 team of all time. Miami just hasn't beaten any quality opponents this year. Their one really impressive win, over the Patriots in week three was due entirely to the wacky wildcat formation no one had ever seen before. The wildcat formation has lost its wackyness now, and teams are prepared for it. Baltimore is the lock of the week.
SAN DIEGO (+1) over Indianapolis
This is almost criminal. It's ridiculous that an 8-8 team can be hosting a 12-4 team, it really is. The Colts don't match up well with this Chargers team. If MJD can look like OJ against this Colts team, what are a rejuvenated LT and Sproles going to do against this team. Peyton Manning can only will the Colts to a certain amount of wins, the road has to end somewhere, and I think it ends in San Diego.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
NFL picks week 17
Last week 2-2 (Season 3-4-1)
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Detroit
This line really is too good to be true. I'd take Green Bay at -16. The Packers have lost their past four games by four points or less and have been the genuine 'good' bad team all season. All the close losses and heartbreak of the season is going to come out with a decimation of the Lions. Lock of the season.
Seattle (+6) over ARIZONA
Love this line almost as much as the Packers line. The Cardinals have been terrible ever since getting edged by the Giants, and they've got nothing to play for here. The Seahawks on the other hand have been playing hard recently and will be keen to send Coach Holmgren out with a win.
Miami (+2.5) over NY JETS
It's all over for the Jets. What I see here in this game is the Dolphins getting out of the gates early - maybe a kickoff return for touchdown, or a Favre interception returned deep into Miami territory - then Pennington consolidating the lead, before the Jets make a furious comeback and fall just short. Take the Dolphins.
SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Denver
The line definitely seems too high but I'm going with it anyway. The reason being that I just think Denver is a terrible team. They get blown out and they lose matches where they are the only team that has anything to gain. The Chargers defence isn't much chop, but Denver's might be the worst in the league.
GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Detroit
This line really is too good to be true. I'd take Green Bay at -16. The Packers have lost their past four games by four points or less and have been the genuine 'good' bad team all season. All the close losses and heartbreak of the season is going to come out with a decimation of the Lions. Lock of the season.
Seattle (+6) over ARIZONA
Love this line almost as much as the Packers line. The Cardinals have been terrible ever since getting edged by the Giants, and they've got nothing to play for here. The Seahawks on the other hand have been playing hard recently and will be keen to send Coach Holmgren out with a win.
Miami (+2.5) over NY JETS
It's all over for the Jets. What I see here in this game is the Dolphins getting out of the gates early - maybe a kickoff return for touchdown, or a Favre interception returned deep into Miami territory - then Pennington consolidating the lead, before the Jets make a furious comeback and fall just short. Take the Dolphins.
SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Denver
The line definitely seems too high but I'm going with it anyway. The reason being that I just think Denver is a terrible team. They get blown out and they lose matches where they are the only team that has anything to gain. The Chargers defence isn't much chop, but Denver's might be the worst in the league.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Week 16 picks
Last week 1-2-1
JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Indianapolis
A bad matchup for Indy. The way to beat the Colts is too simply just pound them with the run, something they don't defend that well. MJD and Fred Jones have been disappointing this year, but they went off against the Colts last time and could definitely do so again. The Jags looked to get things back on track a little last week, and although they might not win, they should cover that huge spread at home.
DALLAS (-4.5) over Baltimore
I think Baltimore is done. The Ravens lose here and they could easily find themselves behind two of the Jets/Dolphins/Pats trio heading into the final week for the final wild card spot. Looking at their schedule Baltimore hasn't beaten one bona fide good team this year, and unfortunately for them you can make the argument that Dallas is the best team in football right now.
NEW YORK (-3) over Carolina
This is pretty much it for the Giants. Last week looked terrible for the G-Men but the one positive they can take out of it is how well they defended the run, which is what the Panthers thrive on. DeAngelo comes down to Earth and the Giants restore a little order.
Green Bay (+4.5) over Chicago
This Green Bay team keeps suckering me in. But still, I don't understand how a team can beat another by almost five touchdowns then be the underdog a little more than a month later.
JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Indianapolis
A bad matchup for Indy. The way to beat the Colts is too simply just pound them with the run, something they don't defend that well. MJD and Fred Jones have been disappointing this year, but they went off against the Colts last time and could definitely do so again. The Jags looked to get things back on track a little last week, and although they might not win, they should cover that huge spread at home.
DALLAS (-4.5) over Baltimore
I think Baltimore is done. The Ravens lose here and they could easily find themselves behind two of the Jets/Dolphins/Pats trio heading into the final week for the final wild card spot. Looking at their schedule Baltimore hasn't beaten one bona fide good team this year, and unfortunately for them you can make the argument that Dallas is the best team in football right now.
NEW YORK (-3) over Carolina
This is pretty much it for the Giants. Last week looked terrible for the G-Men but the one positive they can take out of it is how well they defended the run, which is what the Panthers thrive on. DeAngelo comes down to Earth and the Giants restore a little order.
Green Bay (+4.5) over Chicago
This Green Bay team keeps suckering me in. But still, I don't understand how a team can beat another by almost five touchdowns then be the underdog a little more than a month later.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Week 15 picks
From now on I'm gonna be giving four picks a week. And to change things up, the picks are all going to be against the spread. I'll give the picks for the Sunday and Monday night games (and Thursday night games if that's the case, as it is this week), and then two other games I think have the best chance of getting it done. Here we go (home team in caps)...
New Orleans over CHICAGO (+3)
I really don't think this Chicago team is all that good. Aside from maybe the win over the Colts in the first week they haven't really had a legitimately good win all year. They've lost twice this year at home, and only beat Detroit by 4 points at home as well. And then there's Drew Brees vs. Kyle Orton.
Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE (+1.5)
This Jags team has quit. This is now seven losses on the trot if you count Detroit as a bye. Green Bay has one their 5 games by a combined margin of 92 points. Even when you count the hammering at the hands of New Orleans that Monday night, their 8 losses have been by a margin of just 56. Blame it on the defense, blame it on Rodgers, whatever. Sometimes it's just bad luck. Expect Del Rio's boys to help them out though. Really love this line.
DALLAS over New York (-3)
The Cowboys loss in Pittsburgh might have been the most simultaneously incredibly impressive and incredibly unimpressive performance of the season by any team. The Boys defense was phenomenal, matched the Steelers bit for bit. But the choke-job ensured that until Tony Romo wins a big game he's just another quarterback. The Dallas secondary is all of a sudden a weapon and without Burress to be double teamed, the Cowboys I'm sure will jump head first into the strategy of simply loading the box and stopping the run. If Jacobs doesn't play I can't see the Giants winning or covering, and even if he does I don't like their chances.
Cleveland over PHILADELPHIA (+14)
Before getting blown out in Tennessee the Browns hadn't lost a game by more than 10 points since week three, so that's something to keep an eye on. After two emotion charged wins this sets up as a huge trap game for the Eagles. The Browns aren't going to win this game but they should cover the two touchdown spread.
New Orleans over CHICAGO (+3)
I really don't think this Chicago team is all that good. Aside from maybe the win over the Colts in the first week they haven't really had a legitimately good win all year. They've lost twice this year at home, and only beat Detroit by 4 points at home as well. And then there's Drew Brees vs. Kyle Orton.
Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE (+1.5)
This Jags team has quit. This is now seven losses on the trot if you count Detroit as a bye. Green Bay has one their 5 games by a combined margin of 92 points. Even when you count the hammering at the hands of New Orleans that Monday night, their 8 losses have been by a margin of just 56. Blame it on the defense, blame it on Rodgers, whatever. Sometimes it's just bad luck. Expect Del Rio's boys to help them out though. Really love this line.
DALLAS over New York (-3)
The Cowboys loss in Pittsburgh might have been the most simultaneously incredibly impressive and incredibly unimpressive performance of the season by any team. The Boys defense was phenomenal, matched the Steelers bit for bit. But the choke-job ensured that until Tony Romo wins a big game he's just another quarterback. The Dallas secondary is all of a sudden a weapon and without Burress to be double teamed, the Cowboys I'm sure will jump head first into the strategy of simply loading the box and stopping the run. If Jacobs doesn't play I can't see the Giants winning or covering, and even if he does I don't like their chances.
Cleveland over PHILADELPHIA (+14)
Before getting blown out in Tennessee the Browns hadn't lost a game by more than 10 points since week three, so that's something to keep an eye on. After two emotion charged wins this sets up as a huge trap game for the Eagles. The Browns aren't going to win this game but they should cover the two touchdown spread.
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