The Power Poll

Providing a scouting report for every team in the league is going to be more difficult than I anticipated. In other words it's not going to happen. Count yourselves lucky you got in there Fremantle, thats about the only thing you have to be thankful for. Instead, every four weeks I'm going to list a 'Power Poll'. The purpose of this is to show which teams in the AFL have the 'power'. I'll divide the teams into sections, corresponding with their 'power'. I'll list it in reverse order for the purpose of unbearable suspense. It's a cheesy premise that American sports writers use for all the major sports. We're all drifting towards Americana, so why not. Let's do it;

"The Clippers and the Cursed"

16. Fremantle (0-4, 16th)
There's an NBA team called the Los Angeles Clippers. There's another Los Angeles team aside from the Lakers? Yep, that's the Clippers. The most cursed and disastrous team in the NBA is the LA Clippers. Their players don't try, the coach doesn't know what he's doing and bad things just happen to them. So basically their the NBA's version of the Fremantle Dockers. The Dockers are dreadful, perhaps to the point of being cursed. Matthew Pavlich must see his wasted career flashing before his eyes. I feel for him. I hope for his sake he moves to the Gold Coast team or forces a trade to Collingwood. The latter would be fine. Fremantle aren't in a position to win matches now, and they don't look like they'll even be sniffing that position any time soon. Maybe they really are cursed.

15. Richmond (0-4, 15th)
Now this team really is cursed. I can't remember a year when hype has been failed to live up so in such a shocking manner. From the Cousins injury in round one everything has gone down hill. Incredibly Ben Cousins has been lost amidst the myriad of shocking results. Never thought I'd say that Ben Cousins had been forgotten by media, but that's how bad the Richmond situation is right now. I for one never understood the hype to begin with. This Richmond team had approximately 4 1/4 good players (Deledio, Joel Bowden and Nathan Brown count as whole numbers, Nathan Foley and the inconsistent Matthew Richardson, who I still maintain hurts the team, count for a half each, and the potential of Ben Cousins counts as a quarter). This team beat one other team last year that finished in the eight. They were never ready for finals. 2010 guys, maybe you'll climb up to ninth again.

"We're terrible but at least we try"

14. Melbourne (1-3, 14th)
Seeing this Melbourne team play Collingwood they looked pretty bad. When Collingwood started focusing in the second half Melbourne simply melted, and their true level of quality emerged - the quality that has Brad 'can't kick straight' Miller as their key forward. This Melbourne team is awful and has no business winning more than 5 matches for the season, but to their credit they play and play hard. They played hard against North Melbourne and pushed Collingwood for a half. Even the Port Adelaide loss wasn't that bad. Yeah and they beat the Tigers. Not sure though if we can attribute that to good play or the curse of Richmond. I just realised that Melbourne has more good players than Richmond. Brad Green, Brock McLean, Aaron Davey and Cameron Bruce are all good players, and you can't tell me we can't find another 1/2 a good player on the rest of the list. That's how we roll at the Melbourne Demons Football Club.

"We look good, but trust us, we're really not"

13. Essendon (2-2, 9th)
Don't believe the hype. Two big wins and two hard-fought losses looks okay on the surface, but I can see past this Essendon smoke and mirrors crap. This team simply isn't that good. Wait until Geelong beats them by 120 points. You'll see. The defense is horrible, the midfield lacks composure and strength and the forward line is throwing out two dead bodies. Okay that's a bit harsh. Only Scott Lucas is deceased. Their attacking free-flowing brand of football will beat some bad teams, but it won't be enough for a decent season. Geelong. 120 points. It's gonna happen.

12. North Melbourne (2-2, 11th)
Where can this team go? I think we saw them to their fullest potential last year, and that was a first final exit to a not-so-great Sydney team. The team's fortunes lie with two players, and Brent Harvey has clearly lost a step while Daniel Wells doesn't ever look like turning into the player he should be. They're solid across the board and they play hard, but that's all you can say for them. Maybe playing hard and having slightly more talent than Melbourne gets you 8th spot, but I doubt it. Stuck in purgatory. "We're genuine contenders... for a first round of the finals exit"

11. Brisbane (2-2, 8th)
Really didn't like what I saw from them on Friday night. They are so dependent on Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw to kick 8-10 goals between them every match. Without that they're extremely beatable. If Simon Prestigiacomo and Harry O'Brien can stop those two that means trouble for Brisbane fans. The midfield is potentially excellent. Simon Black is a top ten player in the league, Rischitelli is a gun, Travis Johnstone and Luke Power are all class and Daniel Rich is a star already. But with Leunebeurger (that's spelt wrong I know) out for 12 weeks and Charman's health questionable whose going to tap it to those guys? Also, people seem to shy away from the fact that Brisbane's back six is awful. Daniel Merrett? Really? Jed Adcock (and he's not even really a defender) is the only guy I feel comfortable with in that back six. I think people want to like this team because Michael Voss is such a likable guy. We'll see how much they like 11th place come September.

10. Sydney (2-2, 7th)
This Sydney team has been underrated for so long that I think they've become overrated. The fact that they're in 7th right now is misleading. They beat a decimated Hawthorn team and a Carlton team they match up perfectly with. It's really just a perfect matchup. Perfect. On the flipside they were beaten convincingly by a Brisbane team that maybe isn't so good, and destroyed by St. Kilda in a performance that sat comfortably alongside Richmond's round one defeat. That's the worst damning I can hand out on a team. It still makes me sick that people will look back on Round 1 2009 in 50 years and see that Collingwood were among the losers in the round alongside Richmond. Ugh. Back to Sydney though. Jarrad McVeigh and Adam Goodes are stars. Darren Jolly is playing out of his mind. Michael O'Loughlin's return will only help. And yet... nothing. What can this team achieve? That St. Kilda match can't be that much of an abberation. This Sydney team doesn't inspire me with any ummm... inspiration... at all. 10th to 12th written all over them.

9. Adelaide (2-2, 12th)
Was that the most heartening 48 point home loss of all time? That Crows team played hard all night, and at the end of the third quarter they had Geelong legitamately worried. Then the Cats took over and looked headed towards a 12 goal win, but to their credit the Crows made it a 'respectable' 8 goal loss. As long as we're making NBA parallels, the Crows (and the Swans too really) are the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are a team that always gets overlooked, but always performs. They go under the radar, but they're so well-coached and disciplined that they always make the playoffs. They're driven by a handful of star players and have a number of role players that willingly accept their, um, role (see Sydney and Adelaide are so alike I'm even using the same joke for both of them). That's the Crows in a nutshell. They play hard, never get embarassed, and will win more matches than they lose generally.

Another thing that people seem to be overlooking... this team is loaded. Adelaide's turnover from composed slow-paced veteran team to young exciting attacking team has happened so fluently it's almost suspicious. When did this re-building phase take place? The Crows have made finals like the last five years in a row. And now they're stocked with young talent and are only going to get better? While still possibly/probably making the finals again this year? How did that happen. Taylor Walker is going to be the face of the AFL mark my words. In spite of my lofty praise, I don't think the Crows have much of a say in the finals this year. They use the handball at an insane rate, and don't quite have the experience not to make bad decisions that will lead to turnovers playing that attacking style of play. Still though, exciting.

"The wildcard"

8. West Coast (2-2, 10th)
Don't understand why everyone was picking West Coast for 15th this year. Did everyone forget that West Coast were the dominant team in the league over the 2005-2007 period? That was only two years ago guys. The list has generally been retained from that era as well, except for two minor absences from guys with the maiden names of Chris and Ben. Seriously though, I'll buy into last year being an abberation. The shock of losing Cousins and Judd coupled with the absolute rape the team copped through injuries. I swear every single player in the starting 22 last year had an injury at some stage or another. It was insane. Now that they've had a year to combat Cousins/Judd withdrawal symptoms and are fighting fit the Eagles are dangerous. The midfield with superstar Daniel Kerr, superstar Dean Cox, sparkplug Andrew Embley, hard nuts Tyson Stenglein and Adam Selwood and youngsters Rosa and Masten is very solid. The defence has always been a strength, and although it isn't what it once was it's not going to be too much of a hindrance. Darren Glass won't allow it. Also, the forward line is quietly quite good. Quinten Lynch and Ashley Hansen are both decent players and Mark LeCras seems like he's taken the next step. The presence of Wirrpanda and Staker, two guys who can create something out of nothing, is dangerous as well. Add Adam Hunter to the mix and this team can be dangerous up front.

The wildcard though is Subiaco. Watching them play there against Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs (two teams so good we haven't even seen mention of them yet), and beating both convincingly, you can see that Subiaco takes them to a whole other level. That was the huge advantage they've always had, and it seems this year they're going to use it. God knows the other Western Australian team isn't.

I see the Eagles as the 'weird' team of 2009. The team that can potentially beat or lose to any given team (aside from Geelong) by ten goals. They've played a bizarre fixture so far. Honourable loss in Brisbane, belting of Port Adelaide, 100 point smashing by St Kilda, handily beating the Bulldogs. See, bizarre. The fact is though - this team is going to win at home. They've already beaten two quality teams their, and by convincing margins. Throw in two sure victories against Fremantle at Subi and that's four victories at home already. Say that they win five of the other eight matches at home, a pretty reasonable estimation. That gives them nine wins. Three wins from eight away games remaining and they play finals. Can they do that? The strong performance on the road to Brisbane gives me the belief that they can.

"If this, and that, and maybe this too goes right we can play for a spot in the Grand Final"

7. Carlton (2-2, 5th)
They're not ready yet. They just don't have the depth, experience or defence to do it this year. They'll play finals and probably win a final too, but beyond that I don't see them doing it. But with that midfield of Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and Stevens I won't say otherwise concretely.

(A team I like - West Coast - gets three paragraphs, a team I don't like - Carlton - gets three lines. That's how I roll, unlike the Melbourne Demons)

6. Collingwood (2-2, 6th)
No this isn't a biased pick. I genuinely believe we're better than Carlton, although the Blues will probably beat us twice and Brendan Fevola will kick a combined 27 goals in the two matches. That aside, the Pies are better and have a better chance at a home final or double chance than Carlton. Don't underestimate the importance of finishing 5th or 6th opposed to 7th or 8th this year either. There's a good chance that Sydney, Brisbane, West Coast and Adelaide will be filling out the 7th or 8th spot, and playing them in Melbourne is much more favourable. I think the Pies will have that advantage. Collingwood are hot and cold, but when they're hot they can beat anyone in the league (cough, 86 points, cough). I think we've also seen Collingwood are good enough to be trusted to get themselves out of bad patches within games and turn it around (see: Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide matches). I'm also willing to treat the Adelaide game as a virtual abberation. Play that last quarter ten times and I think Collingwood win eight of them.

We know all about the big names of Pendlebury, Cloke, Thomas, Didak and Davis. Shockingly the man who might have the biggest say in Collingwood's season is Simon Prestigiacomo. That statement doesn't frighten me as much as you might think it should. If Presti can neutralise the oppositions best forward (as he has done the past two weeks with Mooney and Brown) then the young Collingwood defence should put up enough of a fight to keep Collingwood in the match against quality teams. But with too many questions in the midfield (who is the best midfielder after Pendlebury? O'Bree? Johnson? Swan? ugh), secondary defence, and my lack of trust in Josh Fraser and Travis Cloke, I doubt Collingwood are a top four team. Maybe, but unlikely. Save us Travis?

5. Port Adelaide (3-1, 4th)
Everyone's sleeper pick this year, and with good reason. This Port Adelaide team is loaded. Chad, Kane, Shaun, Peter, Pearce, Boak, Gray, Cassisi, Ebert, Brogan, Lade, Motlop. This team should be top four. It wasn't complete luck that Port Adelaide got to the Grand Final just two years ago (okay maybe it was, but bare with me). This team is stacked with a tremendous amount of skill, speed and talent. Heart, hardness and desire are the questions. The Hawthorn game may have answered some of those questions. But there's still the lingering thought that Mark Williams doesn't have his heart completely in the job, and resulting of that neither do the players. 50-point losses to West Coast don't help disprove that either. Because of that they remain in this group for now.

"Threatening... lingering... but something's wrong"

4. Western Bulldogs (3-1, 3rd)
I don't know. Can this Bulldogs team win the flag? Really? I just don't think you can win a Grand Final without a semi-decent tall key forward. Unless you have a Judd-Cousins-Kerr-Cox or Ablett-Bartel-Corey-Selwood-Ottens midfield. Even those teams had Quinten Lynch and Cameron Mooney though. The Bulldogs don't even have a Quinted Lynch. Hell, they don't have an Ashley Hansen. My last NBA parallell, I promise. The Bulldogs are the Phoenix Suns of the AFL. The Suns, led by star point guard Steve Nash, played basketball at a breakneck speed. They put up insane scores every night, consistently leading the league in scoring. They defied conventional wisdom because they didn't play defence and yet they were one of the top teams in the league for years. But in the playoffs they could never advance to the finals because of the fact that in the playoffs, playing against the best teams, defence simply mattered too much. That's the Western Bulldogs. With this list the Bulldogs are managing to play the style that suits them the best - fast. But it's not going to win them a Grand Final. Steve Nash can tell you that.

3. Hawthorn (1-3, 13th)
Yep, the 13th team is 3rd in the Power Poll. Just wait. This team has too much talent not to be a force in finals. Still though, there is something wrong and the question it presents is glaringly obvious - can Hawthorn recover from injuries and get themselves back together in time to mount a run at the top four? The answer to that question will decide their year.

"The Contender"

2. St Kilda (4-0, 1st)
The surprise team of the year? Who saw this coming? The committment to defence, pressure and tackling that was never there in the past. The emergence of Nick Dal Santo as a top 15 player in the league. With Riewoldt and Hayes returning to full health they should only get better. Koschitzke is the obvious wildcard, he needs to get to a state of consistent health. St. Kilda have answered every question posed to them emphatically this year. The way to unsettle Geelong is through ferocious tackling and pressure (well, that will unsettle any team, but still my point is valid) as Collingwood (Woo!) demonstrated last year. St. Kilda have shown a capacity to do that. They're a legitimate threat. I think

"The Team to Beat"

1. Geelong (4-0, 2nd)
On Saturday night in Adelaide, a quality team with a good shot to play finals, threw everything and the kitchen sink at Geelong. They played hard, they played well and they played with swagger. And yet midway through the final term Geelong led by almost ten goals. This team is scary. Until they're beaten they remain here - in their rightful place.