Save Us Travis

Some consolation for Dane

2009-09-22T00:00:00.002+10:00

Adelaide game

3. Dale Thomas
2. Nick Maxwell
1. Steele Sidebottom

Geelong game

3. Heath Shaw
2. Harry O'Brien
1. Dale Thomas

Dane Swan 23
Scott Pendlebury 18
Alan Didak 16
Nick Maxwell 14
Leon Davis 13
Heath Shaw 11
Tarkyn Lockeyer 7
Josh Fraser 6
Simon Prestigiacomo 6
Travis Cloke 6
Dale Thomas 5
Dayne Beams 5
Harry O'Brien 4
Brad Dick 4
Marty Clarke 3
John Anthony 2
Leigh Brown 2
Paul Medhurst 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1
Steele Sidebottom 1

So concludes the tallying of the finest Magpie for 09. Not surprisingly, Dane Swan comes out on top. Thoroughly deserved too. The beginning of the year was all about Pendlebury, while the middle to latter phases of the season saw Didak and Davis shine. Swan was the rock of the team though, it's no surprise his purple patch of form coincided with Collingwood's 12 of 13 streak. Looking at that list, I think I more or less got things right. 2009 in my opinion saw six individuals stand out in particular, and that's the six fittingly represented at the top of the standings.

After a dreadful 2008 it was fantastic to see Heath Shaw's return to form. The finals especially saw his unique combination of dash and hardness on display. Skipper Nick also came into his own in 2009. While the early stages saw the captaincy somewhat burden his play, as he tried to be too aggressive, he eventually established himself in the team. Critics that said he might not be amongst Collingwood's 15 best players were put to shame in the later part of the year. Maxwell's unrelenting courage, defensive awareness and underrated strength in the contest earned him a rightful spot in the All-Australian team. One of the highlights of the season was his heroic performance against the Saints in the qualifying final.

It's hard to objectively evaluate 2009 overall for Alan Didak and Leon Davis following the events of Saturday night. I will leave it at this. Both are immensely talented football players, but neither is at the stage where they can simply expect to contribute on the sole basis of their skills. For Davis, it's all about workrate. During the home and away season his running was exceptional and the results were evident. During the finals his workrate slipped noticably. Performing against great teams has been the great stain on Davis' career. In the finals he was made to look terrible. By the end of the Geelong game he looked like he had reverted back to his 2002 self. On the basis of this season and last, it's clear that isn't true. However, to win back the fans he needs to perform from the start in 2010, and maintain that performance into September.

I'm not going to question Alan Didak's workrate. From what I saw in the finals, he was legitimately carrying his own weight. However, his decision making needs drastic improvement - with and without the ball. A pair of brain fades (the turnover in the pocket against St. Kilda and the 50m penalty to Mooney Saturday night) led to massive turning points in losing finals. Also, we saw Didak's once famous radar for goal go pathetically out of whack in September. One goal in three finals isn't a good enough return for one of the best kicks for goal in the league. His decision to impotently centre the ball in the final quarter against the Cats, when will within range, summed up his season past few weeks around goal. His six game stretch after returning from injury in the middle of the season showed that when at his best, Didak is a bona fide matchwinner. He just needs to do it more often.

The steady improvement of Scott Pendlebury took its greatest leap in 2009. The first ten weeks of the season especially saw the team's smoothest mover and user establish himself as the midfield general. You really have to go to the game to appreciate Pendlebury's leadership in the midfield. The major blight on Pendlebury's game is his lack of courage and general toughness. While that is still somewhat of an issue, his ability to win first possession at stoppages and gain the contested touches around the ground negates it a little. His absence in the finals series was sorely, sorely lacked.

One man who failed to compensate for Pendlebury in September was Dane Swan. Swan hardly embarassed himself, but his inability to be the prolific ball winner down the stretch that he was earlier in the year played its part in Collingwood's exit. The stats, which so many define Swan by, speak for themselves. In the first 20 weeks of the season, Swan failed to reach 29 disposals twice (one of those was a 28 touch game). In the final 5 weeks of the season, he didn't reach 29 disposals once. I'm not going to place too much responsibility on Swan for Collingwood's September failure. He had solid games against St. Kilda and Adelaide, and was beaten by the league's best tagger against Geelong. You would expect him to wear down late in the season having to cope with hard tags week-in-week out for the first time in his career. With Dane, it's best to focus on the positives. 2009 saw him truly make the leap into 'star' territory. In the past, I've written him off because of his poor disposal and untrustworthy nature around goal. 2009 sees the end of that. Another player you must see in person to appreciate, Swan's strength, vision, awareness, football IQ and running ability is elite among the league. What is most impressive about Swan is not so much his ability to win possession, but the sense one gets when he has it. Once just another body in the team, I get the same sense with Swan as I do with Didak, Davis, Thomas and Pendlebury - I expect him to do something special when he gets the ball. 2009 has seen Swan evolve into a playmaker, and a legitimate star. For these reasons, he's Collingwood's best player of 2009.

NFL picks week two

2009-09-18T14:15:00.003+10:00

Last week: 10-6

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Houston
NY JETS (+3.5) over New England
GREEN BAY (-9) over Cincinnati
DETROIT (+10) over Minnesota
New Orelans (+1) over PHILADELPHIA
Carolina (+6) over ATLANTA
WASHINGTON (-9.5) over St Louis
JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Arizona
SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5) over Seattle
BUFFALO (-5) over Tampa Bay
DENVER (-3) over Cleveland
Baltimore (+3) over SAN DIEGO
CHICAGO (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
NY Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS
Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI

With a whimper

2009-09-12T15:43:00.002+10:00

Richmond game

3. Dane Swan
2. Travis Cloke
1. Dayne Beams

Sydney game

3. Dayne Beams
2. Nick Maxwell
1. John Anthony

Bulldogs game

3. Heath Shaw
2. Tarkyn Lockeyer
1. Nick Maxwell

St. Kilda game

3. Nick Maxwell
2. Heath Shaw
1. Dane Swan

Dane Swan 23
Scott Pendlebury 18
Alan Didak 16
Leon Davis 13
Nick Maxwell 12
Heath Shaw 8
Tarkyn Lockeyer 7
Josh Fraser 6
Simon Prestigiacomo 6
Travis Cloke 6
Dayne Beams 5
Brad Dick 4
Marty Clarke 3
Harry O'Brien 2
John Anthony 2
Leigh Brown 2
Paul Medhurst 1
Dale Thomas 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1

NFL picks week one 2009

2009-09-12T11:20:00.003+10:00

The new season is upon us. I'll have some final predictions at the end of the post, but for now I'll get stuck right into it. Going through every single game isn't going to be realistic long-term, so what I will do is discuss the four games I feel are the most interesting. Or the four I feel strongest about. Here we go, home team in caps.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Tennessee
Alright, the game is already over, but this is how I would have picked. And I would have been wrong. Neither team really impressed me last night. Pittsburgh looked like a slightly less formidable version of last year's championship team - no way to run the ball the ball, inconsistency in the passing game for the first three quarters, but an excellent defence, a clutch quarterback and a lot of heart. Last night that was enough to beat a timid Tennessee.

Denver (+5.5) over CINCINNATI
An improved defence, the loss of two overrated big names and a lot to prove makes Denver an interesting team this year. The Bengals are getting way too much hype for a team that has done nothing the past two years and lost its best offensive player.

BALTIMORE (-13) over Kansas City
Philadelphia (-1.5) over CAROLINA
HOUSTON (-4) over New York
Detroit (+13) over NEW ORLEANS

ATLANTA (-4) over Miami
Minnesota (-3.5) over CLEVELAND

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Jacksonville

Dallas (-4.5) over TAMPA BAY
San Francisco (+6) over ARIZONA

Washington (+7) over NEW YORK
Everyone's late sleeper team, the Redskins. With reason. The defence was already good, and Haynesworth's addition gives them a feroucios extra dimension. The Giants have a worrying lack of buzz around them. It feels like they're on track for a 9-7 or 10-6 type season, and then go out meekly in the playoffs. I like the Redskins to cover the points, and maybe even win the match.

GREEN BAY (-4.5) over Chicago
Possibly the most talented in the NFC this year. Expect the Bears (who should be a decent team this year) to be shocked by the Packers.

NEW ENGLAND (-11) over Buffalo
San Diego (-9) over OAKLAND

Marching

2009-08-08T22:10:00.003+10:00

Essendon game

3. Josh Fraser
2. Alan Didak
1. Travis Cloke

Bulldogs game

3. Dane Swan
2. Alan Didak
1. Nick Maxwell

Hawthorn game

3. Heath Shaw
2. Dane Swan
1. Leon Davis

Carlton game

3. Travis Cloke
2. Dane Swan
1. Leon Davis

Brisbane game

3. Pendlebury
2. Davis
1. Swan

Adelaide game

3. Maxwell
2. Didak
1. Wood

Leaderboard

Dane Swan 19
Scott Pendlebury 18
Alan Didak 16
Leon Davis 13
Nick Maxwell 6
Josh Fraser 6
Simon Prestigiacomo 6
Tarkyn Lockeyer 5
Travis Cloke 4
Brad Dick 4
Heath Shaw 3
Marty Clarke 3
Harry O'Brien 2
Leigh Brown 2
Paul Medhurst 1
Dale Thomas 1
John Anthony 1
Dayne Beams 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1

Rolling

2009-06-28T11:50:00.002+10:00

Fremantle game

3. Alan Didak
2. Dane Swan
1. Harry O'Brien

Sydney game

3. Alan Didak
2. Dane Swan
1. Harry O'Brien

Melbourne game

3. Brad Dick
2. Alan Didak
1. Scott Pendlebury

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury 15
Dane Swan 11
Alan Didak 10
Leon Davis 9
Simon Prestigiacomo 6
Tarkyn Lockeyer 5
Brad Dick 4
Marty Clarke 3
Josh Fraser (ugh) 3
Harry O'Brien 2
Nick Maxwell 2
Leigh Brown 2
Paul Medhurst 1
John Anthony 1
Dayne Beams 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1

Back on track

2009-05-31T19:25:00.002+10:00

Carlton game

3. Scott Pendlebury
2. Simon Prestigiacomo
1. Marty Clarke

West Coast game

3. Leon Davis
2. Tarkyn Lockyer
1. Scott Pendlebury

Port Adelaide game

3. Dane Swan (a lazy 48)
2. Leigh Brown
1. Brad Dick

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury 14
Leon Davis 9
Dane Swan 7
Simon Prestigiacomo 6
Tarkyn Lockeyer 5
Marty Clarke 3
Josh Fraser (ugh) 3
Nick Maxwell 2
Alan Didak 2
Leigh Brown 2
Paul Medhurst 1
Brad Dick 1
John Anthony 1
Dayne Beams 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1

Quick (very quick) notes on a blowout (and a win)

2009-05-16T21:59:00.003+10:00

Apologies for not making posts about the past two matches. I didn't think there was much to be said really. We beat a North Melbourne side we should have beaten, and we got smashed by a team we had no business beating. The injuries are ridiculous, and you could almost say that tomorrow's match could decide the season. Anyway, here are the votes...

North Melbourne game
3. Tarkyn Lockeyer
2. Leon Davis
1. Dane Swan

St. Kilda game
3. Scott Pendlebury
2. Nick Maxwell
1. Sharrod Wellingham

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury 10
Leon Davis 6
Simon Prestigiacomo 4
Dane Swan 4
Tarkyn Lockeyer 3
Josh Fraser (ugh) 3
Nick Maxwell 2
Alan Didak 2
Marty Clarke 2
Paul Medhurst 1
John Anthony 1
Dayne Beams 1
Sharrod Wellingham 1

...

2009-04-25T18:04:00.002+10:00

It's been almost two hours since the match ended and I still can't believe what just happened. That incredible turn of events can lead to one question and one question only... what the fuck?

How the fuck did that happen. How the fuck can you concede a 14 point advantage in the rain (IN THE FUCKING RAIN) with not more than three minutes game time remaining to an inferior team. I take that back, Essendon is not the inferior team. Right now no one is inferior to the Collingwood Football Club. Such a statement would be too harsh a damning. Today, Collingwood simply embarassed themselves. As to how a team with premiership aspirations can lose to a team that will struggle to escape the bottom four I don't know. But as to how it can happen when the weaker team loses their two most important players (Lloyd was on one leg) and still win is completely beyond me.

Management needs to re-evaluate everything the football club has been aiming for. This is not a premiership contender or even a top four contender. Making the eight will be difficult enough. Think this is a blood-pumped over-reaction? It's not. This team hasn't achieved anything in the past that would suggest an improvement. The past five years have seen two bottom four finishes and three unsuccessful finals campaigns. And yeah, they were unsuccessful, let's not kid ourselves. Two heartless and skilless exits to the Bulldogs and St Kilda, and a failure to capitalise on Geelong choking.

There are a lot of players that need to take a good hard look at themselves in the mirror today. Barham and Brown need to go back to the two's. Barham can't kick or handball, and Brown missed two opportunities to seal the game. Neither of them justified their place in the team. Shannon Cox I'm willing to give another week, on the basis of sheer potential. He needs to make better decisions though. He's at his best when he's instinctive, when he starts to think about things he turns it over. That's a worry. Credit to Travis Cloke today for lifting his game from 'dreadful' to 'extremely mediocre'. Small steps Travis. Blazing away on your left foot every single time isn't getting you anywhere. Robert Walls is a bit of a prick but he made a good point that Medhurst has reverted back to his Fremantle ways of playing for the free kick. Eyes for the footy Paul. Anthony Rocca needs more time to work on his body.

Josh Fraser. The best personification of the past decade for Collingwood football. A lot of hype, a lot of talent, a lot of promise... no reward. Josh Fraser was atrocious today. He cost us the game. There may have been 43 other players that were on the field yesterday, but none (including Patty Ryder), had more of a say in Essendon winning. For such a massive swing early to go Collingwood's way with Hille's injury, and then for Fraser to completely and utterly fail to capitalising on it - it cost Collingwood the match. Fraser has never been a good ruckman. Never. But there's no excuse for a veteran player who has spent ten years playing the position of ruck in the AFL to get beaten by a 21 year old playing out of position is simply unacceptable. Fraser had 10kg, 2 inches, 6 years and 122 games on Ryder and was completely embarrassed by him. Ryder was Essendon's best player. Fraser was Collingwood's worst. It's that simple. On a day which Collingwood supporters regard as the biggest day until September, Josh Fraser embarrassed us. On a day when he was chosen to be captain and represent his team, he let down his teammates. And on a day which evokes hardness, courage and heart, Josh Fraser let down his country. Josh Fraser, today, you are a fucking disgrace.

Another disgrace - Mick Malthouse. No excuses, he has to go. Today it became abudantly clear that his style of game simply doesn't win matches. Essendon, like Adelaide and Geelong before them, abused Collingwood through the corridor. You can't win matches tippytoeing along the wings. You simply can't. St Kilda does it too, but to a lesser degree, and they make up for it with incredible defensive pressure that Collingwood just doesn't bring anymore. Malthouse needs to go.

Today wasn't all bad. Okay, that's a lie, but there are a handful of players that didn't disgrace themselves. John Anthony was terrific all day, Mr. Reliable as always. Dane Swan racked up a tonne of possessions. Scott Pendlebury was great early and late, and kicked a magnificent goal in the last quarter. Marty Clarke and Dayne Beams were both solid. O'Brien, Brown and Presti in defence were rock solid. Dale Thomas, same story as always, when he got it he was terrific, he just didn't get it enough. Leon Davis had a shocking first half, but was fantastic in the second half.

Collingwood now has to evaluate everything. They'll have to because everyone else will to. Where exactly is this list, playing this style of game going? Some say that your only as good as your five worst players. I don't want my team to be measured by Leigh Brown, Jaxson Barham, Alan Toovey, Tyson Goldsack and Shannon Cox. For all the talk of promising youth, I really don't see it. Cox makes horrible decisions with the ball, Goldsack and Toovey have little to no skill, Barham has the worst disposal in the league and the likes of Cam Wood, Chris Dawes, John McCarthy, Ryan Cook, Danny Stanley and Ben Reid aren't going anywhere. Of the really young guys only Beams, Anthony and Wellingham look like they are AFL players. The old guard of Fraser, Prestigiacomo, Davis, Lockeyer, Johnson, O'Bree and Rocca just isn't good enough. For once, Collingwood has an excellent middle tier age of players in Pendlebury, Thomas, Cloke, Clarke, O'Brien, Shaw and Swan, with Didak and Medhurst hovering too. They can't do it alone though. This list isn't good enough to make a grand final. Something has to happen. With each passing week it becomes clearer and clearer that Nathan Buckley has to be the man to make the changes. The countdown to Mick Malthouse's exit begins today.

Votes

3. Dane Swan. I'm not his biggest fan to say the least, but today he played well. 37 disposals and 11 marks is a fantastic effort. His disposal was adequate and he took some fantastic marks. Solid all round effort.

2. Leon Davis. The spark. Today, as he went, Collingwood went. Stat line of 30 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles and 2.2 looks sensational. Fact is though, his first half was probably the worst he's played in two years. To his credit he turned it around in the second half, and in a big way. Two massive goals and his run off half-back swung the match into Collingwood's favour.

1. John Anthony. The only reliable presence in the forward line. Just the 9 touches but he sure makes them count. Four huge goals.

Honourable mentions to Scott Pendlebury and Harry O'Brien.

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury 8
Simon Prestigiacomo 4
Leon Davis 4
Dane Swan 3
Josh Fraser (ugh) 3
Alan Didak 2
Marty Clarke 2
Paul Medhurst 1
Dayne Beams 1

The Power Poll

2009-04-19T22:02:00.002+10:00

Providing a scouting report for every team in the league is going to be more difficult than I anticipated. In other words it's not going to happen. Count yourselves lucky you got in there Fremantle, thats about the only thing you have to be thankful for. Instead, every four weeks I'm going to list a 'Power Poll'. The purpose of this is to show which teams in the AFL have the 'power'. I'll divide the teams into sections, corresponding with their 'power'. I'll list it in reverse order for the purpose of unbearable suspense. It's a cheesy premise that American sports writers use for all the major sports. We're all drifting towards Americana, so why not. Let's do it;

"The Clippers and the Cursed"

16. Fremantle (0-4, 16th)
There's an NBA team called the Los Angeles Clippers. There's another Los Angeles team aside from the Lakers? Yep, that's the Clippers. The most cursed and disastrous team in the NBA is the LA Clippers. Their players don't try, the coach doesn't know what he's doing and bad things just happen to them. So basically their the NBA's version of the Fremantle Dockers. The Dockers are dreadful, perhaps to the point of being cursed. Matthew Pavlich must see his wasted career flashing before his eyes. I feel for him. I hope for his sake he moves to the Gold Coast team or forces a trade to Collingwood. The latter would be fine. Fremantle aren't in a position to win matches now, and they don't look like they'll even be sniffing that position any time soon. Maybe they really are cursed.

15. Richmond (0-4, 15th)
Now this team really is cursed. I can't remember a year when hype has been failed to live up so in such a shocking manner. From the Cousins injury in round one everything has gone down hill. Incredibly Ben Cousins has been lost amidst the myriad of shocking results. Never thought I'd say that Ben Cousins had been forgotten by media, but that's how bad the Richmond situation is right now. I for one never understood the hype to begin with. This Richmond team had approximately 4 1/4 good players (Deledio, Joel Bowden and Nathan Brown count as whole numbers, Nathan Foley and the inconsistent Matthew Richardson, who I still maintain hurts the team, count for a half each, and the potential of Ben Cousins counts as a quarter). This team beat one other team last year that finished in the eight. They were never ready for finals. 2010 guys, maybe you'll climb up to ninth again.

"We're terrible but at least we try"

14. Melbourne (1-3, 14th)
Seeing this Melbourne team play Collingwood they looked pretty bad. When Collingwood started focusing in the second half Melbourne simply melted, and their true level of quality emerged - the quality that has Brad 'can't kick straight' Miller as their key forward. This Melbourne team is awful and has no business winning more than 5 matches for the season, but to their credit they play and play hard. They played hard against North Melbourne and pushed Collingwood for a half. Even the Port Adelaide loss wasn't that bad. Yeah and they beat the Tigers. Not sure though if we can attribute that to good play or the curse of Richmond. I just realised that Melbourne has more good players than Richmond. Brad Green, Brock McLean, Aaron Davey and Cameron Bruce are all good players, and you can't tell me we can't find another 1/2 a good player on the rest of the list. That's how we roll at the Melbourne Demons Football Club.

"We look good, but trust us, we're really not"

13. Essendon (2-2, 9th)
Don't believe the hype. Two big wins and two hard-fought losses looks okay on the surface, but I can see past this Essendon smoke and mirrors crap. This team simply isn't that good. Wait until Geelong beats them by 120 points. You'll see. The defense is horrible, the midfield lacks composure and strength and the forward line is throwing out two dead bodies. Okay that's a bit harsh. Only Scott Lucas is deceased. Their attacking free-flowing brand of football will beat some bad teams, but it won't be enough for a decent season. Geelong. 120 points. It's gonna happen.

12. North Melbourne (2-2, 11th)
Where can this team go? I think we saw them to their fullest potential last year, and that was a first final exit to a not-so-great Sydney team. The team's fortunes lie with two players, and Brent Harvey has clearly lost a step while Daniel Wells doesn't ever look like turning into the player he should be. They're solid across the board and they play hard, but that's all you can say for them. Maybe playing hard and having slightly more talent than Melbourne gets you 8th spot, but I doubt it. Stuck in purgatory. "We're genuine contenders... for a first round of the finals exit"

11. Brisbane (2-2, 8th)
Really didn't like what I saw from them on Friday night. They are so dependent on Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw to kick 8-10 goals between them every match. Without that they're extremely beatable. If Simon Prestigiacomo and Harry O'Brien can stop those two that means trouble for Brisbane fans. The midfield is potentially excellent. Simon Black is a top ten player in the league, Rischitelli is a gun, Travis Johnstone and Luke Power are all class and Daniel Rich is a star already. But with Leunebeurger (that's spelt wrong I know) out for 12 weeks and Charman's health questionable whose going to tap it to those guys? Also, people seem to shy away from the fact that Brisbane's back six is awful. Daniel Merrett? Really? Jed Adcock (and he's not even really a defender) is the only guy I feel comfortable with in that back six. I think people want to like this team because Michael Voss is such a likable guy. We'll see how much they like 11th place come September.

10. Sydney (2-2, 7th)
This Sydney team has been underrated for so long that I think they've become overrated. The fact that they're in 7th right now is misleading. They beat a decimated Hawthorn team and a Carlton team they match up perfectly with. It's really just a perfect matchup. Perfect. On the flipside they were beaten convincingly by a Brisbane team that maybe isn't so good, and destroyed by St. Kilda in a performance that sat comfortably alongside Richmond's round one defeat. That's the worst damning I can hand out on a team. It still makes me sick that people will look back on Round 1 2009 in 50 years and see that Collingwood were among the losers in the round alongside Richmond. Ugh. Back to Sydney though. Jarrad McVeigh and Adam Goodes are stars. Darren Jolly is playing out of his mind. Michael O'Loughlin's return will only help. And yet... nothing. What can this team achieve? That St. Kilda match can't be that much of an abberation. This Sydney team doesn't inspire me with any ummm... inspiration... at all. 10th to 12th written all over them.

9. Adelaide (2-2, 12th)
Was that the most heartening 48 point home loss of all time? That Crows team played hard all night, and at the end of the third quarter they had Geelong legitamately worried. Then the Cats took over and looked headed towards a 12 goal win, but to their credit the Crows made it a 'respectable' 8 goal loss. As long as we're making NBA parallels, the Crows (and the Swans too really) are the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are a team that always gets overlooked, but always performs. They go under the radar, but they're so well-coached and disciplined that they always make the playoffs. They're driven by a handful of star players and have a number of role players that willingly accept their, um, role (see Sydney and Adelaide are so alike I'm even using the same joke for both of them). That's the Crows in a nutshell. They play hard, never get embarassed, and will win more matches than they lose generally.

Another thing that people seem to be overlooking... this team is loaded. Adelaide's turnover from composed slow-paced veteran team to young exciting attacking team has happened so fluently it's almost suspicious. When did this re-building phase take place? The Crows have made finals like the last five years in a row. And now they're stocked with young talent and are only going to get better? While still possibly/probably making the finals again this year? How did that happen. Taylor Walker is going to be the face of the AFL mark my words. In spite of my lofty praise, I don't think the Crows have much of a say in the finals this year. They use the handball at an insane rate, and don't quite have the experience not to make bad decisions that will lead to turnovers playing that attacking style of play. Still though, exciting.

"The wildcard"

8. West Coast (2-2, 10th)
Don't understand why everyone was picking West Coast for 15th this year. Did everyone forget that West Coast were the dominant team in the league over the 2005-2007 period? That was only two years ago guys. The list has generally been retained from that era as well, except for two minor absences from guys with the maiden names of Chris and Ben. Seriously though, I'll buy into last year being an abberation. The shock of losing Cousins and Judd coupled with the absolute rape the team copped through injuries. I swear every single player in the starting 22 last year had an injury at some stage or another. It was insane. Now that they've had a year to combat Cousins/Judd withdrawal symptoms and are fighting fit the Eagles are dangerous. The midfield with superstar Daniel Kerr, superstar Dean Cox, sparkplug Andrew Embley, hard nuts Tyson Stenglein and Adam Selwood and youngsters Rosa and Masten is very solid. The defence has always been a strength, and although it isn't what it once was it's not going to be too much of a hindrance. Darren Glass won't allow it. Also, the forward line is quietly quite good. Quinten Lynch and Ashley Hansen are both decent players and Mark LeCras seems like he's taken the next step. The presence of Wirrpanda and Staker, two guys who can create something out of nothing, is dangerous as well. Add Adam Hunter to the mix and this team can be dangerous up front.

The wildcard though is Subiaco. Watching them play there against Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs (two teams so good we haven't even seen mention of them yet), and beating both convincingly, you can see that Subiaco takes them to a whole other level. That was the huge advantage they've always had, and it seems this year they're going to use it. God knows the other Western Australian team isn't.

I see the Eagles as the 'weird' team of 2009. The team that can potentially beat or lose to any given team (aside from Geelong) by ten goals. They've played a bizarre fixture so far. Honourable loss in Brisbane, belting of Port Adelaide, 100 point smashing by St Kilda, handily beating the Bulldogs. See, bizarre. The fact is though - this team is going to win at home. They've already beaten two quality teams their, and by convincing margins. Throw in two sure victories against Fremantle at Subi and that's four victories at home already. Say that they win five of the other eight matches at home, a pretty reasonable estimation. That gives them nine wins. Three wins from eight away games remaining and they play finals. Can they do that? The strong performance on the road to Brisbane gives me the belief that they can.

"If this, and that, and maybe this too goes right we can play for a spot in the Grand Final"

7. Carlton (2-2, 5th)
They're not ready yet. They just don't have the depth, experience or defence to do it this year. They'll play finals and probably win a final too, but beyond that I don't see them doing it. But with that midfield of Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and Stevens I won't say otherwise concretely.

(A team I like - West Coast - gets three paragraphs, a team I don't like - Carlton - gets three lines. That's how I roll, unlike the Melbourne Demons)

6. Collingwood (2-2, 6th)
No this isn't a biased pick. I genuinely believe we're better than Carlton, although the Blues will probably beat us twice and Brendan Fevola will kick a combined 27 goals in the two matches. That aside, the Pies are better and have a better chance at a home final or double chance than Carlton. Don't underestimate the importance of finishing 5th or 6th opposed to 7th or 8th this year either. There's a good chance that Sydney, Brisbane, West Coast and Adelaide will be filling out the 7th or 8th spot, and playing them in Melbourne is much more favourable. I think the Pies will have that advantage. Collingwood are hot and cold, but when they're hot they can beat anyone in the league (cough, 86 points, cough). I think we've also seen Collingwood are good enough to be trusted to get themselves out of bad patches within games and turn it around (see: Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide matches). I'm also willing to treat the Adelaide game as a virtual abberation. Play that last quarter ten times and I think Collingwood win eight of them.

We know all about the big names of Pendlebury, Cloke, Thomas, Didak and Davis. Shockingly the man who might have the biggest say in Collingwood's season is Simon Prestigiacomo. That statement doesn't frighten me as much as you might think it should. If Presti can neutralise the oppositions best forward (as he has done the past two weeks with Mooney and Brown) then the young Collingwood defence should put up enough of a fight to keep Collingwood in the match against quality teams. But with too many questions in the midfield (who is the best midfielder after Pendlebury? O'Bree? Johnson? Swan? ugh), secondary defence, and my lack of trust in Josh Fraser and Travis Cloke, I doubt Collingwood are a top four team. Maybe, but unlikely. Save us Travis?

5. Port Adelaide (3-1, 4th)
Everyone's sleeper pick this year, and with good reason. This Port Adelaide team is loaded. Chad, Kane, Shaun, Peter, Pearce, Boak, Gray, Cassisi, Ebert, Brogan, Lade, Motlop. This team should be top four. It wasn't complete luck that Port Adelaide got to the Grand Final just two years ago (okay maybe it was, but bare with me). This team is stacked with a tremendous amount of skill, speed and talent. Heart, hardness and desire are the questions. The Hawthorn game may have answered some of those questions. But there's still the lingering thought that Mark Williams doesn't have his heart completely in the job, and resulting of that neither do the players. 50-point losses to West Coast don't help disprove that either. Because of that they remain in this group for now.

"Threatening... lingering... but something's wrong"

4. Western Bulldogs (3-1, 3rd)
I don't know. Can this Bulldogs team win the flag? Really? I just don't think you can win a Grand Final without a semi-decent tall key forward. Unless you have a Judd-Cousins-Kerr-Cox or Ablett-Bartel-Corey-Selwood-Ottens midfield. Even those teams had Quinten Lynch and Cameron Mooney though. The Bulldogs don't even have a Quinted Lynch. Hell, they don't have an Ashley Hansen. My last NBA parallell, I promise. The Bulldogs are the Phoenix Suns of the AFL. The Suns, led by star point guard Steve Nash, played basketball at a breakneck speed. They put up insane scores every night, consistently leading the league in scoring. They defied conventional wisdom because they didn't play defence and yet they were one of the top teams in the league for years. But in the playoffs they could never advance to the finals because of the fact that in the playoffs, playing against the best teams, defence simply mattered too much. That's the Western Bulldogs. With this list the Bulldogs are managing to play the style that suits them the best - fast. But it's not going to win them a Grand Final. Steve Nash can tell you that.

3. Hawthorn (1-3, 13th)
Yep, the 13th team is 3rd in the Power Poll. Just wait. This team has too much talent not to be a force in finals. Still though, there is something wrong and the question it presents is glaringly obvious - can Hawthorn recover from injuries and get themselves back together in time to mount a run at the top four? The answer to that question will decide their year.

"The Contender"

2. St Kilda (4-0, 1st)
The surprise team of the year? Who saw this coming? The committment to defence, pressure and tackling that was never there in the past. The emergence of Nick Dal Santo as a top 15 player in the league. With Riewoldt and Hayes returning to full health they should only get better. Koschitzke is the obvious wildcard, he needs to get to a state of consistent health. St. Kilda have answered every question posed to them emphatically this year. The way to unsettle Geelong is through ferocious tackling and pressure (well, that will unsettle any team, but still my point is valid) as Collingwood (Woo!) demonstrated last year. St. Kilda have shown a capacity to do that. They're a legitimate threat. I think

"The Team to Beat"

1. Geelong (4-0, 2nd)
On Saturday night in Adelaide, a quality team with a good shot to play finals, threw everything and the kitchen sink at Geelong. They played hard, they played well and they played with swagger. And yet midway through the final term Geelong led by almost ten goals. This team is scary. Until they're beaten they remain here - in their rightful place.

Kicking the habit

2009-04-18T19:06:00.003+10:00

The habit? Losing to Brisbane in big matches. Well, that's not true. Losing to Brisbane in general is probably more apt. Friday night Collingwood showed something that they haven't showed all year - sustained resilience. Coming from behind to beat Melbourne doesn't count. That they were down in the first place in that match is damning enough. But last night Collingwood were down - really down - and they had the heart and the composure to mount a comeback and ultimately finish it off. Medhurst was Mr. Ignition, singlehandedly turning the game for the Magpies in the early third quarter. Two fantastic goals to start the third quarter from Medhurst and the Pies were on their way.

We'll focus on the good for now. From the middle of the second quarter on the Pies played their best brand of football. Quick, accurate, hard football with few turnovers. Collingwood did a great job of winning one-on-ones and contested ball when it counted. Charman's injury was a massive boost for the Pies. With Charman off the ground Fraser started to gain some ascendancy in the ruck. 37 centre clearances for Collingwood, 28 to Brisbane was directly related to Fraser's work in the ruck.

The story of the game though was the ability of Prestigiacomo and O'Brien to curtail the influence of Brown and Bradshaw. The conditions helped, but the body work of Presti and O'Brien can not be understated. Both were significantly weaker than their direct opponents, but timing and intelligence allowed them both to break even in contests. They were the most significant reason for Collingwood's victory.

The midfield was dominated by one man. Scott Pendlebury was a star, as usual, with 35 disposals and an insane 10 centre clearances to go with 13 contested possessions. The contested possessions tells a story of Pendlebury's development from very good player to midfield star. In the past Pendlebury would drift around packs, waiting for the hands-off. Now Pendlebury is the main midfield at stoppages, standing stationary directly underneath the contest. This is the reason Pendlebury is winning so many first possessions at stoppages. Being in such proximity to the contest he is winning the ball, even if it is only a handball under extreme pressure. The rest of the midfield was overshadowed by Pendlebury. Tarkyn Lockeyer was solid with 29 touches and two important goals. O'Bree in his milestone game did his usual thing. Dane Swan didn't have much of an impact. Dayne Beams made every one of his limited touches count.

A quick something on Jaxson Barham. The media and Malthouse seemed stoked with Barham's outputs. On the surface, why shouldn't they be!? 28 disposals and 9 tackles (most in the team) in a harsh environment in your first game is an astounding achievement. Not when you look closer. Barham's effort can not be questioned. He ran hard and tackled fiercely all game. He played his heart out. It's a pity heart doesn't correlate to skill. His disposal is absolutely shocking. He can't kick. At all. 61% disposal efficiency is terrible. 9 clangers is even worse. Hopefully he'll develop skills in time, but it's safe to say he's not a natural.

Someone we thought was a natural continued their shocking start to the year. Travis Cloke played another shocker. With 7 disposals no one on the team got fewer touches of the ball than Travis. He was virtually nowhere to be seen for 90% of the match. To his credit he kicked a clutch goal after the half time siren which had a massive impact on the momentum of the match. Aside from that though he was completely useless. Remove the Melbourne game (which we should considering their quality, or lack of) and Travis is averaging 9 disposals 5 marks and 1 goal on the season. He desperately needs to lift. Anthony Rocca was much the same as Travis, but at least he commanded a presence. Rocca didn't do much but he did take one spectacular mark and made a great goal assist. Something to build on.

A quick note on the players that didn't play so well. Nathan Brown was thoroughly outclassed by Jonathan Brown in the first quarter. He needs to re-evaluate his game. Dale Thomas was quiet once again, he needs to step up. Alan Didak did absolutely nothing. Shannon Cox actually played pretty well, winning plenty of the ball (27 touches), but he needs to improve his decision making. He has a Pendlebury quality of having exceptional evasive skills, but he needs to perfect them. In a big way. Finally, Leigh Brown needs to be dropped. There's no two ways about it.

All in all this was a fantastic win for the Pies. The first sign of the young season that Collingwood means business. The Pies were challenged and they fought back tremendously. The second half was something special. Brisbane at the Gabba are no pushover, especially for this Collingwood team. But the Pies persisted and they came away with a crucial 4 points that will have Essendon worried. With good reason.

Votes

3. Simon Prestigiacomo. The decisive play of the game came in the latter half of the final quarter. Michael Rischitelli was attacking a loose ball hard on the left half forward flank for Brisbane. Simon Prestigiacomo attacked it harder. The two clashed and Presti came away with the ball. A dangerous Brisbane move was killed and the Pies went on to win the match. That and he kept the best forward in the league goalless for three quarters. Yeah. Three votes.

2. Scott Pendlebury. I feel like it kind of should be Medhurst, but I can't overlook Pendlebury. 35 brilliant disposals, 13 gutsy contested possessions and 10 crucial centre clearances are too tough to overlook. His vision and awareness, the ability to have a half-second longer than anyone else in the league make him the most aesthetically pleasing Collingwood player since Buckley. Now that's a wrap.

1. Paul Medhurst. Singlehandedly changed the outlook of the game. His burst of brilliance in the third quarter, and miraculous goal to begin the final term changed the match. Amazing. Hope he's fully recovered from his concussion. We need him.

Honourable mentions go to Josh Fraser, Harry O'Brien and Leon Davis. A fantastic team effort.

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury - 8
Simon Prestigiacomo - 4
Josh Fraser - 3
Alan Didak - 2
Leon Davis - 2
Marty Clarke - 2
Paul Medhurst - 1
Dayne Beams - 1

A disastrous paradox - Fremantle 2009 scouting report

2009-04-13T12:50:00.005+10:00

This year I'm going to go through all 16 AFL teams and provide a scouting report for each. The reason? None in particular, just to enhance my knowledge of each team. How I select the team for each week will be mostly random. I'm going to try and choose a team for which the game they are playing that week holds particular importance.

This week's team is Fremantle. Coming off a belting at home from the Bulldogs and a lifeless display away to Essendon, Fremantle had come under the pump during the week. The clash against Adelaide on Sunday represented an opportunity to bounce back. The Dockers came in at slight favourites as well. Here's how the game was played...

Fremantle 11.14 80 def. by Adelaide 15.14 104 (Subiaco)

Freo came out all guns blazing in the early stages taking advantage of the supposedly three goal breeze. From the first bounce the attack on the ball and the tackling was ferocious. It was fantastic to see youngster Stephen Hill, of a very slight build, lay a hard tackle in the opening minutes. The Dockers were maintaining possession as well, but were wasteful going forward. Instead of trying to hit leads the Dockers blazed away kicking long into packs. Kicking long towards the square has its benefits, it can catch the defence off-guard, but Fremantle players took far too long to move the ball forwards. The one time they did hit a lead inside 50, the player kicked truly. Unsurprisingly the kick to hit the lead was Paul Haselby, the most skilled player on the team, and the goalscorer was skipper Matthew Pavlich.

Fremantle did not capitalise on their early dominance. The dominance was massive, with Adelaide not making a forward push until the 12-minute mark, which is insane. Unfortunately the Dockers were wasteful in front of goal missing relatively basic set shots. For 12 minutes of complete dominance the Dockers had just 2 goals to show for it. As good teams usually do, Adelaide punished the Dockers going forward and kicking a goal through Brad Symes. Incredibly the Crows could have almost drawn level if not for a horrible missed shot by Kurt Tippett in the right forward pocket. Fremantle retained some of their momentum though, goaling late through good quick ball movement from Chris Tarrant and Hill, followed by a strong mark and goal from Clayton Hinkley. A 14 point lead at quarter time didn't reflect Fremantle's dominance, and the Dockers paid for not taking more advantage of the breeze.

Adelaide dominated the second term to a greater extent than Fremantle did in the first. More importantly, Adelaide were effective and reflected their dominance on the scoreboard - unlike the Dockers. The Crows held Fremantle goalless, and kicked five of their own to take a three goal lead to the main break. More incredible was the fact that Fremantle didn't register a score of their own. Adelaide 'rushed' two behinds. Kicking against the breeze Fremantle were rendered useless. Whereas in the first quarter Fremantle could kick the ball over Adelaide's zone - and with the confidence that came with the breeze, were moving the ball quickly before the Crows could set up - kicking into the breeze forced Fremantle to be accurate and precise with disposal. That didn't end up well. Fremantle have been labelled the team with the worst disposal in the league. The second quarter was proof of that. The Dockers were completely stagnant against the Adelaide zone, stuck in their back third going nowhere on countless occasions. On occasions when Fremantle did move the ball forward they inevitably turned it over. Adelaide punished them and went into half time with a commanding lead.

The Dockers seemingly came out with a purpose in the third quarter, huddling intensely on the field before the bounce looking like they meant business. Whatever was said, it worked, as the Dockers came out strong registering the first five scoring shots of the quarter. Predictably four of those were behinds. The one goal though, from spark Hill, was fantastic. Despite the innaccuracy, the Dockers had worked their way back into the match and were within 9 points. The Crows responded with two classy goals from Porplyzia and Edwards and the game seemed to be over. This kept with the pattern of Adelaide rebuking the Dockers whenever they had a glimmer of hope. Surely enough after a fantastic goal from David Mundy, the Crows responded with a Van Berlo goal. The margin was out to 25 points. To their credit the Dockers didn't back down. A stellar composed goal from Haselby, and a strong set shot kick from Schammer and the Dockers were back within 12 heading into the final change. This is where things got interesting.

With the breeze down to nothing the Dockers came out strong in the final term. Matthew Pavlich got things started with a fantastic opposite foot snap goal 22 seconds into the quarter. Set shots from Tarrant and Crowley and the Dockers shockingly led by a goal 6 minutes into the quarter. A clever goal from Andrew McLeod and the game was level. The turning point of the game came just after this at the 11 minute mark of the quarter. With the scores tied young gun Rhys Palmer took a mark on the wing. He was hit after taking the mark and a 50m penalty ensued. The 50 metres turned into 65 and Palmer took his shot from the corner of the goal square. He missed. Adelaide responded with the next three goals and the game was over. A late Pavlich goal kept things interesting, but two late Adelaide goals sealed the match.

That's what happened. How'd it happen?

The Dockers are at their best when they don't have to think. The two main stages of Docker dominance came at the beginning of the first quarter and last quarter. The Dockers were working off adrenaline there. Tackling hard, winning contested possession and getting into space. When the game was played at an end-to-end pace the Dockers had the upper hand. When play got bogged down, noticably in the second quarter, the Dockers were absolutely clueless. The Fremantle disposal and especially the decision making is horrible. Simple things that all junior footballs know not to do, the Dockers do and do it regularly. Blazing away out of defence without looking where your kicking. Kicking to 1 on 3's. The thing the Dockers were most guilty of was handballing to contests. That's something you just can't do. On countless occasions Docker players handballed to teammates who had an opponent literally on them. In AFL football that's unforgivable.

The periods where the Dockers were playing good football seemed to be created by the crowd. Playing away from the home without the momentum of the crowd to play off the Dockers are going to be in trouble all year. As evidenced last week in the loss to Essendon the results aren't going to be pretty.

Looking at the Docker list there's plenty of talent.

-Captain Matthew Pavlich is a superstar, there's no denying that. In terms of sheer athleticism he's one of the top 5 players in the league. Super strong, agile and skillful. I loved the aggression he showed yesterday. Stuff as simple as hip and shouldering players after they dispose of the ball is something that leader's need to do and he did that. Fremantle's hope.

-Stephen Hill is a spark, and the player that ignited the Dockers yesterday. He's skillful, super quick and creative. He still lacks some conviction and confidence, but that will come. The Dockers have a lot invested in him - he was the third draft pick last year - and you have to worry about his incredibly thin build. Will be interesting to see how he pans out.

-Garrick Ibbotson is a classy performer. Cool under pressure and disposes of the ball well. A little unpolished but still a future star.

-David Mundy looks like a keeper. He's got some class and looks to be a good kick of the ball. He can kick it a fair way anyway. Got them going in the third quarter.

-New guys Nicholas Suban and Greg Broughton looked good yesterday. Broughton in particular showed a cool head in defence.

-Michael Johnson is a bizarre player. His kicking style looks awful, like someone that's never played football before. It's not very effective either, he turned the ball over a bit. In spite of that he seems to be an asset. Great dash off the backline and worked his way into space frequently as evidenced by his 26 touches.

-Luke McPharlin still hasn't really lived up to his potential. At 27 time is running out. He'll remain a handy swingman though, capable of holding down key positions.

-The surprise swingman Chris Tarrant still has some use as well. Playing him in defence is logical - super athlete, strong and quick but can't kick for goal to save his life. He played mostly up forward yesterday and did okay. Takes a strong mark, has an excellent short kick and switches the play well. So maligned he's become sort of underrated.

-Ryan Crowley is the type of player every team needs to have. Hard nut, ferocious attack on the ball and can kick a goal. Among the best yesterday.

-Aaron Sandilands is obviously an asset to the team, the best tap-ruckman in the league. He didn't play well yesterday though, but I'm assuming his performance was an exception to the norm.

-Dean Solomon, often grouped with Tarrant in the maligned section, is a guy I still like. Has shocking, shocking disposal, but gives 110% every time out. Great hardness.

-Clayton Hinkley, Joshua Head and Steven Dodd were nowhere to be seen.

-Kepler Bradley I still can't take seriously. Apparently benefits the team though.

-Antoni Grover goes hard at it all the time, leaves nothing on the field. Can't kick or make decisions to save his life.

-Daniel Gilmore is useless.

-Byron Schammer: see Dean Solomon.

-Brett Peake looks like a deer in headlights whenever he gets the ball.

-I left the most interesting to last. Matthew Pavlich is the obvious choice as the barometer of the team, and he probably still is, but yesterday the team's fortunes rested on Rhys Palmer's shoulders. I love Rhys Palmer. He's my favourite first or second year player in the league to watch. Super quick and has no fear. Spectacular in the air and shows composure around the ground beyond his years. He might be the worst kick of the football in the AFL. He's well aware of it too. He looked to handball at every possible opportunity. Of his 7 kicks I can't remember one hitting a target. It's a mental block he's going to have to over come. Right now it's not just hurting him, it's hurting his team. His miss from 10 metres out in the final quarter cost his team the match. He knew it as well, his body language dropped completely after it. Minutes after the miss he slowed to a halt so he wouldn't create contact with an Adelaide player just after they disposed of the ball. From a normally aggressive player that told the whole story. He's young, but it's something you hope won't hold him back for his career. How he responds next week will tell a lot about his character.

In terms of structure the Dockers are a mess. The defence is weak, too often defenders were caught behind. Gill, Walker and Porplyzia had 12 scoring shots between them. The main problem with the defence was clearing the ball. Johnson, Gilmore and Mundy all turned the ball over with horrible kicks inside defensive 50. The midfield isn't much better. Aside from horrible disposal, Fremantle's other trademark is their inability to take advantage of Sandilands' ruckwork. It's a fair criticism. He didn't dominate yesterday, but still when he did win the taps the Docker rovers failed to gain clean possession and couldn't get quick fluent clearances. The forward line is the biggest area of concern. The forward is clogged up with dead bodies. I don't understand why the Dockers wouldn't try to isolate Matthew Pavlich more. He's one of the three or four best forwards in the league and they barely targeted him. Playing Pavlich up the ground is stupid as well. Fair enough you want him to get his hands on the ball, but who are the Dockers going to kick to? Chris Tarrant won't win you a game of football. The Dockers should be playing Pavlich deep with Tarrant and Crowley as secondary options. Have one smaller crumber as well, then push the other forwards well up to the flanks.

Here is the 'disastrous paradox'. The Dockers are a team with horrible disposal, and that's because they're a young developing team. Makes sense right? Wrong. The shocking thing is, although yes the Dockers are a young inexperienced side, it's the experienced players who are the culprits for ill-disposal. In fact, the young players are probably the best users of the ball in the team. Yesterday, Hill (18) and Ibbotson (21) were disposing of the ball better than anyone, bar Haselby. Mundy The Dockers turnovers and shocking disposal can be placed on the likes of Solomon (191 career games), Gilmore (26 years old), Schammer (105 career games), Grover (29 years old) and Brett Peake (25). It's hard to say whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, but for the present it's a horrible thing. Youngsters are looking up to the likes of Solomon and Schammer, players that can not kick or make decisions under pressure. It tells a tale for the history of the Fremantle football club.

The Dockers play St. Kilda next weekend and they're going to get thumped. I can't see the Dockers getting within 50 points of this strong, skillful and disciplined St Kilda team. A complete demolition (likely) and there might be calls for Mark Harvey's job. They couldn't be more warranted. Harvey has looked lifeless and apathetic in his stay at Fremantle. Say what you want about Chris Connelly, but at least he gave the impression that he cared. Harvey was taken to the cleaners in the coaching department yesterday. As I alluded to above, youth can be no excuse. Fremantle had 8 players playing yesterday with less than 50 games experience. Adelaide had 12. The Dockers also had 4 players with over 150 games experience to Adelaide's 3. Adelaide were a young team coming into a hostile unfamilliar environment and they made Fremantle look leaps and bounds behind them. Fremantle as we stand is a poor-drilled, talent-wasting, uninspired mess. Watching them in contrast to Adelaide, a disciplined well-coached team that milks every last drop of talent it has must have been depressing for Fremantle.

Top 5 Fremantle players
1. Matthew Pavlich
2. Paul Haselby
3. Rhys Palmer
4. Garrick Ibbotson
5. Ryan Crowley

The Barometer - Matthew Pavlich

Best case scenario for 2009
The return of Roger Hayden shores up the defence and Des Headland provides some added toughness and skill to the lineup. Matthew Pavlich has a season for the ages, Rhys Palmer gets some magic boots and Chris Tarrant turns into a great key defender. Best case scenario sees Fremantle taking advantage of Subiaco and winning 7 or 8 games.

My prediction
The returns of Hayden and Headland help the Dockers quest for respectability. Palmer improves his kicking as the season progresses, Hill shows glimpses of stardom and Ibbotson emerges as a potential superstar. Everything else goes horribly wrong. The Dockers continue their implosion, Mark Harvey gets the sack and they finish either 15th or 16th with 4-6 wins for the season. In other words, just another year for the Fremantle Dockers football club.

Not there yet...

2009-04-12T12:36:00.002+10:00

Last night's clash between Carlton and Essendon was probably the most interesting match of the season so far. Following two impressive victories everyone was labeling Carlton a top four team to be. Last night put a massive dent in that speculation.

Carlton is scarily talented. Scarily talented and scarily good. The midfield - Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens - is going to be the best in the league. Already it's probably only second to Geelong's. The Blues have an elite key forward with capable smalls around him, and lost in the hype is that Jarrad Waite has developed into one of the better key defenders in the league. The problem is everyone else. It's still the same story of plenty of talent, but little exposure and the experience that comes with it. The defence still isn't up to the task. Every time Essendon went forward last night they looked like they were going to score. If that's going to happen against Essendon, good luck against Riewoldt/Koschitzke, Franklin/Roughead and Brown/Bradshaw. It's not just the backline though, accountability and tackling in the midfield is a worry too. Essendon simply had too much space last night. Lovett in particular always seemed to have a paddock in front of him. The Blues are still another year away at least from seriously contending for a spot in the Grand Final.

Essendon looked fantastic last night. That's their style of play and the way they'll win matches. The game was played entirely on their terms. If I were an Essendon supporter I'd savour the moment, because moments like that won't come around too often this year. Fletcher is the only better than mediocre defender right now, so quality teams will kick 20 goals against the Dons regularly. I love what Matthew Knights is doing with the team though. Essendon might finish bottom four this year, but they're doing it with a purpose. The team has recruited well, and recruited to suit the style of play Knights is teaching. Jetta, Houli, Winderlich, Zaharakis, Davey, Lovett and Dempsey are all super quick evasive and intelligent players that suit Knights' free flowing running style of play. Watson and Stanton balance things out adding some grit and hardness to the midfield. As long as Hille is in the team Essendon will win plenty of first possessions from stoppages. The main concern though, and it's a big one, is developing key position players to replace Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher.

It was the game of the year to date, and it revealed plenty about both Essendon and Carlton - and showed that perhaps they're closer to each other than we would have thought 24 hours ago.

Evaluating the 22 vs Geelong (Round 3)

2009-04-10T19:55:00.002+10:00

This year I've decided I'm going to evaluate every Collingwood player 1 through 22 after the 'big matches' of the season. The criteria for a 'big match' is still up in the air right now, but the matches we can pencil in so far are... Round 3 vs Geelong, Round 8 and 17 vs Carlton, Round 15 and 22 vs the Bulldogs, and Round 16 vs Hawthorn. For now, we can focus on last night's match. In alphabetical order...

John Anthony - 4
Went missing. Had a solid first term getting his hands on the ball half a dozen times, but after that was rarely seen. Thoroughly outclassed by Scarlett.

Dayne Beams - 6
Solid follow-up to his explosive debut. Showed composure on a big stage, and slotted a good goal. Lack of penetration on a few of his shots at goal hurt.

Leigh Brown - 4
Hustled all night, was a presence in the forward line and kicked a fantastic goal in the third quarter. Just those misses that cost Collingwood the game hurt a little.

Nathan Brown - 2
Dominated on all night. Be it Rooke or Hawkins or even Johnson, Brown was well out of his league.

Marty Clarke - 7
Great dash from the back flank. Played a particularly good third quarter where he helped shift the balance of the game back closer towards Collingwood.

Travis Cloke - 1
... no comment.

Shannon Cox - 5
Played the entire match. That's no doubt significantly tied with his high possession total of 22 (14 in the first half). Made some shocking decisions and produced costly turnovers.

Leon Davis - 5
Very quiet night by his standards. Racked up just 14 disposals. Needs to illustrate that he can match it with quality teams, which has been the problem that has plagued him his entire career. Played a good third quarter, teaming with Clarke to lead the revival.

Brad Dick - 3
Did nothing. 9 mostly meaningless disposals. Kicked one good goal and missed one absolute shocker.

Alan Didak - 6
Not quite last week's incredible performance, but held his ground last night. 18 disposals and made most of them count. Showed his usual class and skill.

Josh Fraser - 4
Dominated on in the ruck and missed key shots at goal. Was solid around the ground but failed miserably in spots where a leader of the team needed to step up.

Ben Johnson - N/A
Started well keeping Ablett quiet but got injured and took no further part in the game.

Tarkyn Lockeyer - 5
One of the rocks of the team did his usual thing. Hard at the ball, good around the ground and took some strong overhead marks. Like Fraser though, missed too many set shots that could have changed the match.

Nick Maxwell - 5
The skip had a pretty quiet night. Did well in the one on ones and didn't embarass himself.

Paul Medhurst - 6
The only Collingwood forward that could claim to have a good night. Kicked truly and posed a constant threat.

Shane O'Bree - 4
Nowhere to be seen. Never an impact player needs to rack up disposals and clearances to justify his spot in the team. 14 touches and 1 clearance doesn't cut it.

Harry O'Brien - 4
Quiet as well. Didn't provide very much dash and over-committed a few times in defence.

Scott Pendlebury - 7
Didn't do anything special, but the general was consistent all night. Hit targets and won first possession at stoppages 9 times. Solid night.

Simon Prestigiacomo - 7
Did a good job of keeping Mooney quiet. Pushed him to the outer flank for his possessions and kept him to the lone goal. Also showed surprising creativity.

Heath Shaw - 3
Had a poor night by anyone's standards, let alone his. Stupid 50 metre penalty cost Collingwood dearly.

Dane Swan - 6
Racked up possessions and clearances like he always does but didn't really do anything. Missed a sitter.

Dale Thomas - 5
Daisy won himself 20 possessions but didn't have his usual impact. Missed a goal that he should have kicked at the end of the third.

MICK MALTHOUSE - 5
Nothing glaringly right or wrong with what Malthouse did. Got the matchups more or less right, and can't be held accountable for the shocking kicking from Fraser, Lockeyer and Brown.

Plagued by inconsistency, ill-disposal and innaccuracy

2009-04-09T23:27:00.002+10:00

Kicking 8 goals 15 behinds through three quarters is no way to beat the best team in Australia. Sleepwalking through an entire quarter doesn't help the cause either.

The Collingwood of the first quarter and the Collingwood of the second quarter were two entirely different teams. The Jekyll/Hyde act Collingwood teams of the past three years pull on a weekly basis was never more evident than in the first half tonight. The first quarter was Collingwood close to their best. Running with the ball, switching inside to outside and outside to inside, and winning the contested ball. The superior play was reflected on the scoreboard, doubling Geelong's scoring shots and taking a 20 point lead to the first break. The decisive period of the match came at the beginning of the second quarter. Collingwood started well retaining the momentum from the first quarter. The momentum evaporated after bad misses from relatively routine set shots gone awry from Travis Cloke and Leigh Brown. Eight consecutive goals Geelong goals followed and with the exception of a pseudo-fightback in the third quarter the game was over.

What went wrong? Glad you asked.

1. The second quarter was a disgrace. There's no excuse for not kicking a goal in a quarter of a football, let alone conceding eight at the opposite end. Collingwood's tackling pressure dropped off, Geelong started winning the contested possessions and dominating the clearances, and Collingwood's disposal and decision making were horrible.

2. For all the hype about Josh Fraser, he was thoroughly obliterated tonight in the hitouts department. The Geelong duo of Blake and West combined to double Fraser's hitout total. The sooner Malthouse accepts that Fraser is a second-option forward masquerading as a ruckman the better for the club. Bring in Cam Wood.

3. Inaccuracy was a killer. The 2007 season was infamous for Collingwood's (in particular Travis Cloke's) inability to convert in front of goal. Last year represented significant progress. Tonight was a definite regression. Two of the main culprits were veterans (and usually reliable) Fraser and Lockeyer. Fraser missed three routine set shots, Lockeyer also sprayed shots he would usually nail. The main offender though was Leigh Brown. Brown is probably on his final AFL lifeline, and while I'm not going to question his workrate and desire, his kicking tonight cost Collingwood the match. The miss from five metres out five minutes into the game was unforgivable, followed by the game-altering momentum-killing miss early in the second quarter and Brown was the single greatest reason Collingwood lost. Yes, he partially redeemed himself by kicking that sensational goal at the end of the third quarter, but drawing your team within three goals isn't the same as extending the margin to almost five goals.

4. Being completely re-active to the opposition isn't the way to win matches. The first quarter was defined by Collingwood's intensity and ability to win contested possession, taking the initiative in the contest. That died at quarter time. The Collingwood of the final three quarters was lifeless and re-active to the movements of Geelong players. There was simply no aggressive defensive movements or actions. Too often Collingwood players were stationery simply waiting for Geelong to move the ball on. Giving time like that to the likes of Ablett, Bartel and Chapman is a recipe for disaster.

5. The defence is a worry. He's young, he's athletic and he's seemingly got a good head on him, but right now Nathan Brown is simply not up to the task of being a key defender in the AFL. Brown was caught behind way too often and looks like he has some issue with his spoiling technique. He spoil attempts are always to the outside of his opponents arms coming in towards the ball. The way to spoil is to get between your opponents arms and meet the ball at a more vulnerable point. Brown has a ways to go. Also, the team defence was terrible. Collingwood had a habit tonight of sending about four players to the ball carrier on the last line of defence, freeing up all the other Geelong forwards. I can't count the amount of times Varcoe and Chapman were left free in the pocket for snaps at goal from point blank range.

6. Travis. Travis Cloke was disgraceful tonight, there's no sugarcoating it. Travis continues to fail miserably when faced with decent opposition. He was rendered totally useless tonight, taken out of contests at ease and never making an impact on the game. Cloke had two set shots on goal, both times failing to register a score. The 'barometer' of Collingwood needs to lift his game or else I can't see a reason to keep him in the firsts. Must improve.

For all of Collingwood's faults, and there were many, most can be attributed to the stellar play of Geelong. Soon I'll devote an entire post to Geelong's play, but for now I'll keep it to praise from afar. Amazing.

Votes

3. Scott Pendlebury (the only Collingwood player not to embarrass himself at one stage or another. Seeing him in person he's truly established himself as Collingwood's midfield general. Plays the percentages, never turns it over, and is developing an inside game to compliment his brilliant outside game. The shining light)

2. Marty Clarke (statistically didn't make much of an impact - 19 disposals, 2 tackles and a behind - but his dash and creativity enlivened Collingwood in the third quarter)

1. Simon Prestigiacomo (Presti continued his good form, playing an all-round solid game, keeping Cam Mooney quiet. Best on ground for Collingwood in the first half, winning one on ones and forcing Mooney to take his marks up along the wing)

Leaderboard

Scott Pendlebury - 6
Josh Fraser - 3
Alan Didak - 2
Leon Davis - 2
Marty Clarke - 2
Simon Prestigiacomo - 1
Dayne Beams - 1

Mixed emotions

2009-04-05T12:09:00.002+10:00

A few notes on last week's lost to Adelaide...

-It's been covered enough already, but Collingwood's (Malthouse's) absolute refusal to use the corridor cost them the match. If the Pies don't want to use the corridor, fine, it's a strategial error in my mind, but something that can be dealt with. Allowing the opposition to run rampant through the corridor on the other hand is unforgivable. You don't have to use it, but you have to at the very least defend it.

-Andrew McLeod kills Collingwood again. How does Malthouse not plan for this guy? Andrew McLeod dominates Collingwood without fail. Malthouse was quoted as saying 'If he played on the ball or on a wing we would have considered placing a tag on him'. Really Mick? Really? It doesn't matter where a player dominates from, if he's controlling a match singlehandedly you have to place a tag on him. It's not that difficult. Simply drag him to the goalsquare (something that St Kilda did successfully on Friday night). Terrible coaching.

-Collingwood were let down by a number of things. The continuing inability of Travis Cloke to make an impact when matched with a quality opponent cost us dearly. Basic skill errors from Didak and Clarke in the final seconds killed hopes of a comeback. Ultimately though, Collingwood were simply outcoached in every aspect of the game.

Votes

3 - Scott Pendlebury (stood out with his usual exceptional skill and awareness. The only player that was able to consistently hit targets through the Adelaide zone)
2 - Leon Davis (skills stood out all day as well, his class a notch above everyone else)
1 - Dale Thomas (on a day when Collingwood were bogged down constantly, Thomas' dash and creativity was vital)

On a brighter note, yesterday's win over Melbourne was much more impressive. The second half anyway. It was a clinical demolition of a weaker side, something Collingwood have struggled to do in recent years. There's little to say about the match really. The first quarter was terrible, as flat as it was last week - hopefully this isn't going to be an ongoing problem. Melbourne and Adelaide both dominated the opening quarters but didn't put it on the scoreboard enough. Collingwood come out flat again next week against Geelong and the game will be out of reach at quarter time.

Votes

3 - Josh Fraser (everything has already been said. Dominated a lesser ruckman, something that he should be doing. Played fantastically around the ground and kicked a good goal as well. What we expect from him)
2 - Alan Didak (horrible game from Didak last week, great turnaround this week. 29 disposals, 10 marks and 3 goals, fantastic. Didak of old)
1 - Dayne Beams (no sentimentality here, I genuinely believe Dayne Beams was the third best player on the ground yesterday. Creative, fearless and skillful. He's gonna be a star)

Super Bowl pick

2009-01-28T12:51:00.002+11:00

Last week: 1-1 (Playoffs: 8-2/Overall: 14-7-1)

Arizona (+7) over Pittsburgh
Double digits and the perfect playoffs went out the door but with a win here I get to finish with more than twice as many wins than losses on the year. That's something. To be honest I don't think either of these teams are all that good. Arizona is riding an all-time hot streak of an individual player and at the same time being aided by some inept coaching from the opposition (HOW DO YOU NOT DOUBLE TEAM FITZGERALD!?). Pittsburgh on the other hand, while arguably the better team, doesn't exactly leap off the page at you. Yes, the defence is fantastic. But that offense is a real worry. They can't run the ball and living and dieing with Big Ben isn't exactly ideal.

In spite of that I like Pittsburgh in this match. I think Pittsburgh's greatest strength (defence) is better than Arizona's (the passing game). The thing about Pittsburgh is that when they play quality teams (which I think we have to label Arizona now) they may win, but they don't do it in style. In the regular season the Steelers went just 5-4 against teams with winning records and their 5 wins were by 3, 1, 23, 7, 4. The 23 obviously stands out but it's very deceiving. That was the New England game where Randy Moss dropped about 28 passes in the end zone. The touchdown victory was over Dallas where Tony Romo just imploded. I think the Steelers win here but I think Arizona does enough to cover the spread.

Pittsburgh 23 Arizona 17

At a stand still

2009-01-14T16:18:00.004+11:00

The Day the Earth Stood Still was one of the most panned films of 2008, and the criticism has leaked into 09 too. First of all it’s not that bad. You’d be hard pressed to label the film a success but it’s not exactly a glaring failure either. It’s a fairly easy film to sum up – The Day the Earth Stood Still has a pedestrian and uninvolving narrative supported by an okay cast and packed with a pleasant moral story. It’s as simple as that.

The greatest problem with the film is that too often it feels like a television movie. For an alleged movie blockbuster, The Day the Earth Stood Still feels like something you’d flick on at 2pm on a Tuesday afternoon. This is due to the lack of a visual and auditory presence. When you watch War of the Worlds or The Day After Tomorrow you genuinely feel like the world is ending. The Day the Earth Stood Still doesn’t exert that feel. The budget of US 80 million is very tame for an end-of-the-world action film and it shows. Visually the film is nothing really, the effects are ordinary and there’s nothing at all groundbreaking.

Despite its narrative shortcomings the film remains credible because of its star-studded cast. Jennifer Connelly is solid in the role of the heroine, a role she could probably play in her sleep. The two stories of the film though are most certainly Jaden Smith (son of Will) and Keanu Reeves. First of all Jaden Smith is okay in his role. The problem is his painfully annoying character, someone so poorly written that we can never fully sympathise with him in the end. Keanu though is probably the brightest spot in the film. Is there any actor in the world better suited to play Klaatu? I don’t think so. Emotionless alien trapped in a human body? Come on! It’s too perfect. Some would say Keanu plays that role in all his films. Keanu has Klaatu down pat, his deliberate movements, his cold stare and his chilled voice are all done perfectly. Jon Hamm is good in a minor role, and Jon Cleese is terrific in his one scene.

Aside from the capable cast, the other thing Earth has going for it is it’s effective message about global warming. Some have labelled the film An Inconvenient Truth 2.0, and with good reason. Only thing is Keanu Reeves probably doesn’t have as much political credibility as Al Gore. Still, the message that we are destroying the Earth, and that perhaps it is more valuable than we are is, makes its mark. More impressive though is the uplifting message the film ultimately conveys, that ‘at the precipice of disaster we change’.

Despite my inclination too, I simply can’t recommend this film. It’s simply not very good. The script is very weak, the acting merely okay despite the very promising cast, and most importantly the film has absolutely no presence. It fails to create suspense, and never truly involves the viewer. Is it worth the $14 it now costs to watch a film in the cinema? Probably not. But it’s at least worth a 2pm TV viewing on a Tuesday afternoon.

NFL Conference Championship picks

2009-01-12T23:14:00.002+11:00

Last week: 3-1 (Playoffs: 7-1/Overall: 13-6-1)

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Well Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin cost me a chance at a perfect record against the spread. Funny thing is, that and the Arizona game (ha!) were the two I was most confident about. Oh well. 7-1 is nothing to complain about I guess. The aim now is to reach double digits, would I think would be quite an achievement. Obviously I have to run the table from here. So let's see how we go.

Philadelphia (-3) over ARIZONA
I just can't pick the Cards here. I think that the Atlanta win was due to the fact they were playing a rookie quarterback, with the benefit of that hostile home environment and a couple of amazing momentum changing plays. The Carolina win was just a case of everything going right. The Panthers really weren't all that good all season, overrated for sure. They fluked more plays than any other team in the regular season, and got hot at the end because of DeAngelo Williams' incredible run. Poor coaching and Jake Delhomme's genuinely phenomenally inept performance (by the end of it he really looked like he was expecting to throw picks) as well as Larry freakin Fitzgerald accounted for the win. This week, the Eagles are smart enough to double Fitzgerald and they should be able to control the clock much better than Carolina. Oh yeah and they beat Arizona by four touchdowns last time. Philadelphia 28 Arizona 17

PITTSBURGH (-5) over Baltimore
You can tell the Steelers mean business. They looked fantastic against the Chargers - they know they belong. Big Ben made plays all day, and they converted on all the big plays. Can't help but feel the Ravens are a little overrated. Tennessee murdered them in virtually every facet of the game, except luck and turnovers. Pittsburgh should be more careful with the ball, they won't give Baltimore the game ala Tennessee. Also when is the last time two teams played three painfully tight matches in the one season. No way Flacco leads the Ravens to a comfortable victory, so I'm liking the Steelers based on that law of averages. Liking them based on everything too. Pittsburgh 27 Baltimore 9

Still perfect...

2009-01-11T13:05:00.002+11:00

My run of perfection picking games against the NFL spread continues. With Baltimore not only covering, but winning, and the Cardinals up 10 on Carolina I'm in pretty good shape to be 6-0 heading into tomorrow's games. Knock wood.

Replay that Baltimore-Tennessee game 10 times and I think Tennessee wins 8 of them. Today they were the superior team, and by a long way. Three turnovers in the redzone is unforgivable, especially in a defensive struggle like this where points were impossible to come by. If Chris Johnson stays healthy I think the Titans win this game 24-10. The Baltimore defence is extremely overrated. We saw quality teams (Indy, New York, Dallas) put up lots of points against them, and Tennessee should have done the same today. They certainly put up the yards anyway. With quick elusive backs you can run on the Ravens (Johnson 11 carries 72 yards 1 touchdown), and they were vulnerable to screen passes today as well. The one area thought to be a weakness, the deep ball, was defended well though (only gain of 25+ yards was a screen pass to Johnson). The defense is a big play unit that will surrender yards, but will also create turnovers as it did today.

The Alge Crumpler fumble at the 1 yard line in the fourth quarter, the most damaging turnover no doubt, was the result of huge hits from the Ravens D. The other two turnovers were the result of poor ball protection from LenDale White and horrible judgement and a weak throw from Kerry Collins.

The Ravens offence was hopelessly stagnant all day. 50 yards on 30 carries via the ground won't get it done next week. The running game started to be mildly effective when McGahee had the ball in the final quarter, his 11 yard run on 2nd and 10 from the 45 was huge. Offensively for the Ravens, the game came down to four huge plays. The first was Flacco's incredible 48-yard touchdown strike to Derrick Mason. Following a pair of 3-and-outs that netted a total gain of 3 yards, and coming right after the Tennessee touchdown drive with Chris Johnson looking invincible, the Ravens had to make something happen. And Flacco did with that perfect pass down the sideline to Mason, splitting the zone coverage, on 3rd and 13 no less. Huge play.

The second big Ravens play was nothing more than a fluke. Flacco made one of his few poor decisions of the game to end the third quarter, heaving a ball up into double coverage that was completely midjudged by the Titans defensive backs and caught my Mark Clayton. 9 times out of 10 that's an interception or incompletion. Lucky break. The other two big plays came on the final drive, the 23-yarder to the tight end on 3rd and 2, and the 8-yarder to Clayton to set up Stover's field goal.

The Ravens benefited immensely from luck, timely plays and fantastic coaching. Tennessee may very well have been the better team, but it was Ravens who made plays when they had to. And that's all that matters really. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are leading 27-7 so I think I'm going to declare a perfect 6-0 heading into tomorrow.

Kid B

2009-01-10T23:51:00.002+11:00

It was the year 2000 and the turn of the century and British rock band Radiohead held the world in their palm. Their previous two albums, The Bends and OK Computer, were phenomenal and already being regarded as two of the greatest guitar rock albums of all time. So what did the year 2000, and the band's fourth album bring? Kid A, the bizarre completely random collection of electronic computer music totally unlike anything Radiohead had done before. In other words it was Radiohead's Fuck You to the world. They were the biggest rock band on Earth, they could do whatever they wanted and we would buy their album even if it was rubbish computer music. Burn After Reading is the Coen brothers' Kid A. Following the dark, deep and brilliant Oscar-winner No Country for Old Men, the Coen brothers have given us a bizarre, disjointed and meaningless film to chew on. And I couldn't be happier.

Sometimes bizarre, disjointed and meaningless is fine. Spending two dark involving hours with Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem's terrible haircut is fine on occasion, but do it too often and it gets to be too much. Sometimes you need a breath of fresh air. Sometimes you need Burn After Reading. I can't help but feel that everyone involved in this film was making it purely for the purpose of fun. There's no deeper meaning or moral discussion going on here. Burn After Reading is what it is.

Having 'quit' his job as a CIA analyst Osbourne Cox (John Malkovich) decides to write a potentially controversial memoir chronicling his time with the agency. An electronic copy of the memoir finds its way to Hardbodies, a fitness club, where employee Chad Feldheimer (Brad Pitt) comes across it. Chad realises the importance of what he has and teams up with Linda (Frances McDormand), who comes up with the plan to blackmail Osbourne Cox so she can pay for the plastic surgery she needs. Meanwhile Osbourne's unhappy wife Katie (Tilda Swinton) is having an affair with Harry Pfarrer (George Clooney), a treasury agent. Complicating matters is the fact that Harry is also seeing Linda, and what follows is a disastrous chain of events resulting in murder, the Russian embassy and wielding axes in broad daylight.

Burn After Reading sticks with having a coherent and mildly believable storyline but as it approaches the finish line it throws caution to the wind and opts for the most incredible ending possible. If you understand the film you won't have any problem with this. The film is about producing laughs, and it does so on a regular basis. Osbourne's gradual slide into insanity, Harry's bizarre erotic hobby and just about every scene with Brad Pitt had me in a fit. The way the film ends is abrupt and completely irrational, but it's perfect considering.

The cast look like they're having a wonderful time. John Malkovich plays the pathetic loser role he's starting to grow into with gusto. George Clooney is terrific as the pitiable womanising treasury agent. Frances McDormand, our main protagonist, is great playing her part with wide-eyed enthusiasm. Tilda Swinton is solid as the cold bitchy straying wife. J.K. Simmons is hilarious in a cameo role. The thing with superstar ensemble casts is that one actor always seems to stand out from the rest. Tom Cruise in Magnolia, Matt Dillion in Crash. Here it's without a doubt Brad Pitt. Pitt's self-deprecating performance is right on the money, virtually everytime he opened his mouth I laughed. His scenes with Malkovich and his facial expression in his lone scene with Clooney will go down as the funniest of the year I'm sure.

You can only hope that people don't see Burn After Reading as No Country for Old Men 2, nothing could be further from it. It's unlike anything the Coen brothers have done recently, more in tune with their wacky stuff from the early days. If No Country for Old Men is their best drama, and Fargo is their best all round film (which I stand by), then Burn After Reading has to be their finest comedic work.

Crooked cops, airport vodka and Keanu

2009-01-10T23:01:00.004+11:00

As preparation for seeing The Day the Earth Stood Still I thought I’d set myself by seeing Street Kings, the other Keanu Reeves movie of 2008. Big mistake. Clichés, gratuity and a script as underdeveloped as it is poorly written run the show here. The storyline is completely uninteresting and predictable, and the ‘twist’ at the end of the film, as well as the strange moral epilogue that follows is painfully bad. There’s nothing royal about Street Kings

Detective Tom Ludlow (Keanu Reeves) is one badass motherfucker. He’s a hothead racist cop that knows no rules or limitations. He is also Captain Jack Wander’s (Forest Whitaker) mercenary. In the name of efficiency Wander sends Ludlow out on missions to kill criminals in cold blood then plant evidence to make it look like lethal force was necessary. Corruption is the name of the game - a good deal of Ludlow’s peers are fully aware of what is going on and more than willing to turn a blind eye. Things go pear-shaped though when Ludlow’s ex-partner Washington (Terry Crews) is murdered in a convenience store with Ludlow present. Ludlow becomes a suspect, and things become even more complicated when he finds out Washington was speaking with Captain Briggs (Hugh Laurie) of Internal Affairs, seemingly ratting him out. What follows is some telephone-book and shovel smacking violence as well as a disastrous web of corruption and back-stabbing.

There are two types of characters that Keanu Reeves can play well. Icy cool leather clad action heroes (The Matrix, Constantine) and offbeat and likable characters (Bill and Ted, Feeling Minnesota). The exception to this rule is when Keanu does his absolute best to succeed at the role, throws everything into it and it comes out in a wonderful jumble. See: Point Break and The Devil’s Advocate. Unfortunately Street Kings gives us cruise control wooden Keanu, who isn’t even unintentionally funny. He’s just plain bad. Keanu is over-the-top and a complete mismatch for his character. Perhaps the highlight of the film comes when Keanu, of Asian heritage no less, goes on a racist rant against a pair of Korean gangsters. It’s ridiculous. And he doesn’t seem like he even cares. But honestly who can blame him when you look at the mess the rest of this film is.

Not all films need to have strong themes, morals and messages. I’m fine settling on occasion for something with an interesting narrative and good characters. Unfortunately Street Kings is 0-for-everying. I’m still not sure what this film is about. It flirts with ideas of alcoholism, loss, racism, revenge, loyalty and ultimately the power of secrets. Nothing is explored, everything is dealt with superficially. The storyline is no more impressive. Fifteen minutes in I was already anticipating this film’s ultimate villain and the ‘climatic’ final scene which would come in turn. These aren’t my incredulous skills of narrative deduction, no, this is just common sense.

With a relatively impressive cast and a decent author upon which the story is based I expected much greater things from Street Kings. The best I can say about it is that it’s a very poor man’s L.A. Confidential. A homeless man’s L.A. Confidential maybe is more apt. It’s not as boring as The Black Dahlia, but it’s a hell of a lot less visually impressive. It comes down to this; Street Kings does a lot of things badly, and nothing in particular good. And generally that formula never leads to a decent film. Generally.

With some things, there is no doubt at all

2009-01-10T22:53:00.004+11:00

The brilliance of John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt is one of these such things. A complex tale of morality that keeps the viewer (as well as the characters in the film) guessing all throughout the film, and beyond that. There’s nothing flashy about Doubt, the film is a completely unpretentious piece that succeeds on the immense strength of its performances and the depth of the questions it poses. Doubt may not be the best film of the year, although it’s definitely in the conversation, but you’d be hard pressed to find a more morally and intellectually stimulative film.

Doubt is essentially about three characters and the uncertainty and reservation that encompasses all of them. The first character is Father Flynn (Phillip Seymour Hoffman), a well-liked and respected Priest of a Catholic church in the Bronx, circa 1964. He also lends his services to the local Catholic school, where the intimidating headmistress Sister Aloysius (Meryl Streep) is feared by all students. Conflict erupts when Sister Aloysius begins to suspect that Father Flynn is having an ‘improper relationship’ with a male student. Sister James (Amy Adams), an innocent and borderline angelic history teacher at the school, is caught between the two as she tries to come to a conclusion beyond any doubt.

The sheer multitude of the questions posed by Doubt is as intoxicating as it is suffocating. Why does Sister Aloysius care so strongly about the matter? Is she merely acting on the best interests of one of her students, or is this just a power trip? What lies in the Father’s past? Does the final revelation of the film reveal the motives of the Father? Does it do so beyond a doubt? Like all of these questions, the great question of the film, did Father Flynn have an improper relationship with the student, is never given a straight answer. Ambiguity rules Doubt, and I for one am grateful for it. Doubt refuses to cave into the status quo, instead it opts to challenge the viewer and make us do something that so few films succeed in doing – make us think.

The beauty of Doubt lies in its subtleties. Just when we think we have a question answered, something changes our mind. But it isn’t a ‘Tyler Durden isn’t real!’ or a ‘Bruce Willis is actually dead!’ type of moment, no it’s much less restrained than that. Something as simple as an embrace between the Father and the student that might be a little too tender to be platonic. Doubt is full of these moments than can be analysed to death. Does Father Flynn’s infatuation with flowers suggest something about his sexuality? Yes it suggests something, but that’s what Doubt is all about. Suggestion, not finality. It’s fantastic.

I noticed that Doubt received four Golden Globe nominations for acting, yet no Best Film or Director nomination. I don’t think that’s right, but the film is being marketed on the basis of its strong performances. Getting the most hype is Meryl Streep, an early Oscar favourite. Is there any doubt as to the fact that Meryl Streep is the best actress in the business? No actor is as consistently versatile, involved and most importantly believable, with each character she chooses. Meryl Streep becomes Sister Aloysius. She’s scary, intimidating, proper, witty, cold, isolated and ultimately – vulnerable. It’s a brilliant display of the broad range of emotions in Streep’s arsenal. It’s a magnificent performance.

If Streep is the best actress in the business, Phillip Seymour Hoffman may be her male opposite. Hoffman has gone from the ‘guy you see all the time without really knowing who he is’ to an Oscar winner and acclaimed actor. There’s no question in my mind that Hoffman is the best versatile actor going around, just as Streep is on the female side. Look at the quality of performances he delivers in such a wide range of roles – Boogie Nights, 25th Hour, Capote, Owning Mahowny – all brilliant, all different. Hell, even Mission Impossible III he was good in. Here in Doubt he succeeds in making Father Flynn a believable character. He portrays the Father as a likable funny guy, someone that will make a joke at his own expense (one scene where he tells the boys what to do if they can’t get a girl is hilarious). As the film progresses he begins to show a darker side, and makes us believe in the possibility of a wrong-doing.

Perhaps upstaging them both is young Amy Adams in a memorable role. Caught between the heavyweights, Adams’ sheer innocence shines through. At times it feels like a halo is hovering over her head. Sister James is not a straight up character though, being surrounded by the cold Sister Aloysius begins to rub off on her. Adams’ portrayal is deep, complex and believable. She deserves all the accolades she receives. Finally in a William-Hurt-A History of Violence type of cameo – short but powerful – Viola Davis is memorable as the male student’s mother. Her screen-time is limited but makes an impact. Unfortunately the time is so limited that any award nomination is probably without merit.

Doubt isn’t quite a perfect film. The film builds and builds to a final confrontation between Sister Aloysius and Father Flynn and the scene is honestly a little underwhelming. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a very good and well-acted scene, but with actors of the quality of Streep and Hoffman I was expecting something magnificent and had to settle for something merely good. That’s my only real qualm with the film, and on the basis of the brilliant performances and storyline that weaves and dodges through assuredness and uncertainty I think I can forgive it. Some films are easily digestible and forgotten about days later, while some require involvement and stay with you for weeks. There’s no doubt that this film falls into the latter.

A little too buttoned up

2009-01-10T22:44:00.005+11:00

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a very good film. The script is very good, the acting very good and the directing likewise. That’s the problem though, everything is simply very good. There’s little to be found that you could label transcendent or extraordinary about this film. The film pulls us in and does a wonderful job of maintaining our interest, but it never succeeds in truly taking us to a higher place. Unlike the title character, the film never goes backward, but it doesn’t really go forward either. It starts off as a very good film and ends that way too.

Anyone who questions the plausibility of the movie is an idiot. It’s not supposed to be plausible. As the magical title suggests, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a fairytale. One thing that director David Fincher does superbly is maintain this fairytale feel throughout the film. The narration of the film (a common aspect of fairytales) and the occasional dry humour help maintain the fantastical nature of the film, and pleasantly reminds the viewer that we shouldn’t be taking this (and nor does it take itself) too seriously. We aren’t beaten over the head with humour though; when it comes it is subtle and appropriate.

The area where Button falls short is setting up the romance of the two main characters. I don’t buy for a second that a near perfect little girl could fall for a hideous beast, but if their was some evidence of attraction I’d be willing to buy into the premise for the sake of the fairytale. But there is no evidence. We go from Benjamin and Daisy being acquainted with each other, too madly in love with each other with no in-between. Why does Daisy feel this way about Benjamin? We get little indication of the attraction in the beginning and Daisy only begins to love Benjamin when he turns into Golden Boy Brad Pitt, which is another conversation.

The acting in Benjamin Button has been lavished with monumental praise. Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett are both early Oscar contenders. The praise is a little overdone. Blanchett, as always, is very solid in her role. Like everyone else in the film, she does a decent job with the New Orleans accent, and she makes us believe in Daisy. The so-called ‘revelation’ of the film though is that Brad Pitt can act. It’s hardly a revelation, Pitt has quietly been one of the best actors of his generation. He’s not quite Ed Norton or Kevin Spacey, but he’s the next rung down. Overshadowed by commercial big budget turns in Troy, Mr and Mrs Smith and Ocean’s Eleven, is the fact that Brad Pitt can really act. His roles in 12 Monkeys and of course Fight Club were both Oscar worthy. He’s versatile and he commands the screen. Benjamin Button isn’t Pitt’s finest work and it’s not even close. Sure he’s good in it, but he’s too low key, almost to the point of being boring. And it never really seems like he captures the essence of Benjamin’s character. The mark of a good film is often how good the supporting cast is, and in Benjamin Button it’s one of the highlights. The characters in the elderly home are wonderfully charismatic, and the performances in particular by the actors playing the respective roles of Benjamin’s father and his foster mother are brilliant.

Maybe the main talking point of the film has been the way it, and in particular Brad Pitt, looks. First of all, from an aesthetic standpoint the film looks phenomenal. The cinematography seems to capture each and every era that we pass through perfectly. We can tell with little degree of difficulty that we’ve moved from the swinging 50s to the freedom of the 60s. The make-up job on Brad Pitt is fantastic. As an old man he’s almost unrecognisable, but not to the degree that we can’t tell the character bears some resemblance to Pitt. It gets a little shaky when Benjamin reaches his 50s; Pitt looks a little too crusty, but other than that it’s smooth sailing. The most incredible moment of the film (and the one occasion where it might in fact take us to a higher place) comes when we see Benjamin in his late teens to early 20s, and he looks exactly like Brad Pitt just at that age. It’s amazing how impressive the job done on Brad Pitt is, the natural look achieved is incredible.

Some might complain of the lengthy nature of the film (clocks in at just under three hours), but the fact is that a good film can never go on for too long, and Benjamin Button is just that – a good film. The length doesn’t hamper the film, in fact a reduced running time would almost certainly have hampered it - at its length the story has time to breathe. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is not a perfect film by any means. There’s a few things that could be improved upon (I still don’t understand what the intended symbolism of Hurricane Katrina in the background was), but for the most part the film hits the mark and does so with poignancy. It's not quite Best Picture material, it lacks the extra something that The Departed and No Country for Old Men had in spades (and even Crash to a lesser degree), but lesser pictures have taken home the statue, some of which have not been very good films. And Benjamin Button may be just that, but I can't help but feel an opportunity was missed.

NFL picks Divisional Round

2009-01-05T23:37:00.002+11:00

Last week (4-0) (Playoffs 4-0/Season 10-5-1)

Baltimore (+3) over TENNESSEE
The AFC has played out great for Baltimore. Of the five teams in the playoffs, the two that would give Baltimore genuine problems (Indy and San Diego, because of their ability to throw the deep ball) are either gone or are likely to be beaten this week. In fact, you could make the argument that the three teams the Ravens likely play to get to the Super Bowl (Miami, Tennessee, Pittsburgh) are their three best matchups in the entire playoffs. Baltimore own the run on defence, and Kerry Collins isn't going to beat them by himself with Ed Reed looming downfield. Baltimore 24 Tennessee 13

Arizona (+10) over CAROLINA
Taking the road team again. This is going to be a shootout. The Panthers will win, no doubt, but the Cardinals will go out with a bang. These teams played one of the better games of the season earlier on, and in terms of entertainment this is my pick as the game of the weekend. Carolina 37 Arizona 28

NEW YORK (-4) over Philadelphia
I still don't buy this Eagles team. They made plenty of mistakes against Minnesota, if the Vikes had say even Matt Cassel I think they win that game. The Eagles are a talented, strong on defence and special teams with a solid offence but with a bad coach. The Giants just don't make mistakes. They play hard, they play smart and they won't lose the game off their own back. I question the Eagles' ability to come out and win this one. New York 24 Philadelphia 17

PITTSBURGH (-6) over San Diego
Without a healthy and in-form LT how does San Diego reach double digits here. Really. Unlike the Colts, the Steelers have the speed to match Sproles - the Chargers won't eat the Steelers up on the ground like they did the Colts. This here is the lock of the week, I don't see a scenario where the Chargers win this one. They're a mediocre team that lucked into the playoffs and a perfect matchup, with some favourable refereeing to boot. Love the Steelers here. Pittsburgh 21 San Diego 6

Wild card weekend picks

2008-12-30T13:36:00.003+11:00

Last week: 3-1 (season: 6-5-1)

ARIZONA (+2) over Atlanta
Atlanta may be the better team, but on the road with a rookie quarterback against a playoff-seasoned veteran in a stadium with fans going crazy is not a situation I like. The shaky way the Falcons beat the Rams last week in a match they absolutely had to win doesn't bode well either.

Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
If Atlanta can get a win in Minnesota in a must-win game I think the Eagles can too. I'm taking the Eagles for three reasons; 1) 44-6 against a desperate and fully stocked Cowboys team is more impressive than 20-19 against a team of reserves with nothing to play for, 2) Adrian Peterson is having trouble protecting the ball, and coming up against an Eagles team that ravaged the ball from Dallas is not the antidote, 3) Tarvaris Jackson.

Baltimore (-3) over MIAMI
Baltimore has as good a chance as anyone to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens are playing as well as anyone right now, and it's entirely conceivable that they could beat Miami, Tennessee and Pittsburgh en route to the Super Bowl. Miami may be the worst 11-5 team of all time. Miami just hasn't beaten any quality opponents this year. Their one really impressive win, over the Patriots in week three was due entirely to the wacky wildcat formation no one had ever seen before. The wildcat formation has lost its wackyness now, and teams are prepared for it. Baltimore is the lock of the week.

SAN DIEGO (+1) over Indianapolis
This is almost criminal. It's ridiculous that an 8-8 team can be hosting a 12-4 team, it really is. The Colts don't match up well with this Chargers team. If MJD can look like OJ against this Colts team, what are a rejuvenated LT and Sproles going to do against this team. Peyton Manning can only will the Colts to a certain amount of wins, the road has to end somewhere, and I think it ends in San Diego.

NFL picks week 17

2008-12-24T16:35:00.002+11:00

Last week 2-2 (Season 3-4-1)

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Detroit
This line really is too good to be true. I'd take Green Bay at -16. The Packers have lost their past four games by four points or less and have been the genuine 'good' bad team all season. All the close losses and heartbreak of the season is going to come out with a decimation of the Lions. Lock of the season.

Seattle (+6) over ARIZONA
Love this line almost as much as the Packers line. The Cardinals have been terrible ever since getting edged by the Giants, and they've got nothing to play for here. The Seahawks on the other hand have been playing hard recently and will be keen to send Coach Holmgren out with a win.

Miami (+2.5) over NY JETS
It's all over for the Jets. What I see here in this game is the Dolphins getting out of the gates early - maybe a kickoff return for touchdown, or a Favre interception returned deep into Miami territory - then Pennington consolidating the lead, before the Jets make a furious comeback and fall just short. Take the Dolphins.

SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Denver
The line definitely seems too high but I'm going with it anyway. The reason being that I just think Denver is a terrible team. They get blown out and they lose matches where they are the only team that has anything to gain. The Chargers defence isn't much chop, but Denver's might be the worst in the league.

Week 16 picks

2008-12-17T13:14:00.002+11:00

Last week 1-2-1

JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Indianapolis
A bad matchup for Indy. The way to beat the Colts is too simply just pound them with the run, something they don't defend that well. MJD and Fred Jones have been disappointing this year, but they went off against the Colts last time and could definitely do so again. The Jags looked to get things back on track a little last week, and although they might not win, they should cover that huge spread at home.

DALLAS (-4.5) over Baltimore
I think Baltimore is done. The Ravens lose here and they could easily find themselves behind two of the Jets/Dolphins/Pats trio heading into the final week for the final wild card spot. Looking at their schedule Baltimore hasn't beaten one bona fide good team this year, and unfortunately for them you can make the argument that Dallas is the best team in football right now.

NEW YORK (-3) over Carolina
This is pretty much it for the Giants. Last week looked terrible for the G-Men but the one positive they can take out of it is how well they defended the run, which is what the Panthers thrive on. DeAngelo comes down to Earth and the Giants restore a little order.

Green Bay (+4.5) over Chicago
This Green Bay team keeps suckering me in. But still, I don't understand how a team can beat another by almost five touchdowns then be the underdog a little more than a month later.

Week 15 picks

2008-12-10T16:12:00.002+11:00

From now on I'm gonna be giving four picks a week. And to change things up, the picks are all going to be against the spread. I'll give the picks for the Sunday and Monday night games (and Thursday night games if that's the case, as it is this week), and then two other games I think have the best chance of getting it done. Here we go (home team in caps)...

New Orleans over CHICAGO (+3)
I really don't think this Chicago team is all that good. Aside from maybe the win over the Colts in the first week they haven't really had a legitimately good win all year. They've lost twice this year at home, and only beat Detroit by 4 points at home as well. And then there's Drew Brees vs. Kyle Orton.

Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE (+1.5)
This Jags team has quit. This is now seven losses on the trot if you count Detroit as a bye. Green Bay has one their 5 games by a combined margin of 92 points. Even when you count the hammering at the hands of New Orleans that Monday night, their 8 losses have been by a margin of just 56. Blame it on the defense, blame it on Rodgers, whatever. Sometimes it's just bad luck. Expect Del Rio's boys to help them out though. Really love this line.

DALLAS over New York (-3)
The Cowboys loss in Pittsburgh might have been the most simultaneously incredibly impressive and incredibly unimpressive performance of the season by any team. The Boys defense was phenomenal, matched the Steelers bit for bit. But the choke-job ensured that until Tony Romo wins a big game he's just another quarterback. The Dallas secondary is all of a sudden a weapon and without Burress to be double teamed, the Cowboys I'm sure will jump head first into the strategy of simply loading the box and stopping the run. If Jacobs doesn't play I can't see the Giants winning or covering, and even if he does I don't like their chances.

Cleveland over PHILADELPHIA (+14)
Before getting blown out in Tennessee the Browns hadn't lost a game by more than 10 points since week three, so that's something to keep an eye on. After two emotion charged wins this sets up as a huge trap game for the Eagles. The Browns aren't going to win this game but they should cover the two touchdown spread.

Blank

2008-11-22T23:38:00.002+11:00

All losses hurt. That's a fact. Even if it's an honourable loss, with much gained, there is still pain because, well - you lost. In my eyes there are four different possible reactions to losing.

1. Indifference - This generally happens when the game played meant little or nothing. These occur usually late in the season when your team is either very good or very bad. Very bad teams that lose will produce indifferent reactions from the fans because they're so used to losing and nothing is at stake except draft picks. Very good teams that lose late in the season when they've already secured their spot on the ladder won't really care as the loss has no grand effect on their season, bar a slight halting of momentum.
Example: Round 21 2004 Port Adelaide 107 Collingwood 70
Collingwood weren't anywhere near the eight, and weren't low enough to be competing for the first draft pick. So in essence, who cares about this match? (From a Collingwood perspective anyway).

2. Reasoning - This occurs chiefly after honourable losses. 'Well you know, Team A was a pretty good team and we gave them a real run for their money. The young guys looked really good too'. These are generally the best type of losses as they produce more positives than negatives, irrespective of the result.
Example: Round 7 2006 West Coast 112 Collingwood 98
In Perth against the Judd-Cousins-Kerr Eagles without Buckley and the Pies pushed the Eagles to the limit. A 14 point loss in Subiaco was nothing to be ashamed of and the positives taken out of this game definitely played some part in the three wins that followed immediately after it.

3. Anger - Probably the most typical response to losing. The team loses and your frustrated with any number of things - bad luck, poor quality of the match, poor quality of play from your own team, losing to a rival, umpiring, etc. Almost always this reaction is produced by your team losing to an inferior team.
Example: Round 17 2008 Essendon 128 Collingwood 80
Unfortunately Collingwood is making a habit to lose to inferior teams, so the response of anger is fairly typical. This match was a killer, up against a mediocre Essendon team with little to play for, and we're considered a top four contender and we get hammered by eight goals. Bad times.

4. ... - 99% of the team you meet losses with indifference, reasoning or anger. But there's a reaction beyond those. A reaction where the pain and realisation of the loss is to much to handle so you just go

...

Blank.

It's a combination of the struggle to accept the loss and the refusal to do so. It's like running down the street turning your head to say hello to someone then running straight into the full brunt of a tree. It's a terrible feeling, and one you'll only feel (hopefully) a handful of times in your life. Here are my experiences of these such moments with Collingwood, in reverse order of devastation;

4. 2003 Grand Final Brisbane 134 Collingwood 84
Generally devastating losses that induce the reaction above come from close games. This was a special exception to the rule. The defeat here was so gratuitous, so destructive that it basically numbed me for four quarters and the rest of the night. The thing of it is that Collingwood never were in this match. And the amazing thing, and the thing that makes the loss so devastating, is that Collingwood were favourites. I'm not sure what's more astounding, the fact Collingwood lost so terribly, or the fact that they were favoured to win.

3. Round 9 2002 Port Adelaide 91 Collingwood 86
How could a regular season game so early in the season possibly hurt more than a Grand Final? A combination of things. For anyone who can't remember, this was the game where Anthony Rocca had a set shot from 45 metres out directly in front virtually on the siren to tie the game in Adelaide. He missed. There were other factors though that attributed to the devastation. Firstly, I actually thought Anthony would make the kick. That was his range. The kick itself wasn't that bad, it was close but it was a clear miss. My hopes were raised when Anthony half-heartedly began to raise his fist, but the goal umpire quickly killed those hopes with the pointing of not two fingers, but one. Secondly, it was so pathetic to hear Eddie Maguire commentating that with four seconds left and Port Adelaide kicking out that Collingwood still had a chance. No Eddie, it's over. But for a second you almost thought it wasn't. After the siren a clash ensued and a Cornes was front and central. For a brief second I considered the possibility of a free kick after the siren to Collingwood. Not to be. Just like everything else in this match.

2. 2002 Grand Final Brisbane 75 Collingwood 66
Why is this one more devastating than the 03 final? Because we came so close. Before the match and at quarter time, even with Collingwood leading and the conditions clearly favouring them I had no real expectation of winning. Even at halftime with the game so tight I never fully believed it was actually possible that Collingwood might win. In the third quarter that changed. When Nathan nailed that goal from outside 50 on the boundary I began to believe. Buckley was playing like a champion, Anthony Rocca was playing the game of his life and so was Josh Fraser. But then Jason Akermanis and Michael Voss combined to put the Magpies to rest. As well as my dreams. I basically put my heart in my mouth that entire second half, and hard Jason Fucking Akermanis stick a bullet in it. Even down by 9 points with less than a minute to go I still thought it was possible. Just get one goal then anything can happen from the centre bounce. We never got that chance.

1. 2007 Preliminary Final Geelong 92 Collingwood 87
No matter how many premierships Collingwood win in my lifetime, be it fifteen or zero, I will never fully recover from this loss. The previous three losses left me devastated, but at least they were honest. In 2003 Brisbane were the better team. In the Port Adelaide game Anthony simply missed. In the 2002 Grand Final Brisbane were just that extra bit too good. This was different though, this match left me feeling cheated. The whole season had a fairytale feel to it. The upcoming youth with Thomas, Pendlebury, Cloke and Shaw and then Clarke. In our heart of hearts we knew this would be Bucks' last go around, and the whole season seemingly built up to his return. When his first kick back was an off-balanced 45 metre perfectly weighted pass that led to a Dale Thomas goal we knew this team was something special. The 2003 Pies might have an argument, but I think you could say confidently this unit was the best team of my lifetime. The surprisingly comfortable win over Sydney and the extraordinary nervous breakdown, I mean football match, against West Coast set the scene for the Geelong game. My mates and I gave Collingwood a 1 in 100 chance.

I doubt I'll ever remember a game as vividly as this one. I'll remember Scott Burns kicking the first goal of the match, setting the tone for the whole night. I'll remember Alan Didak's freak goal in the second quarter to ignite Collingwood and the crowd and get them back in the match. I'll remember Paul Medhurst's goal in the third quarter to give Collingwood the lead and send the Collingwood crowd into a roar that still gives me goosebumps just thinking about it. I'll remember Gary Fucking Ablett snapping a goal from 45 metres out (a 45 METRE SNAP!) with Guy Richards making a lackadaisical half-effort to tackle him. I'll remember the seeming eternity it took for the next score after that. And I'll remember the sound of the siren sounding. The siren sounding and the score showing Geelong had more points than Collingwood. I'll remember the complete and total numbness in my body as I simply stood in a crowd of 98, 000 people as though I had the entire stadium to myself. I'll remember standing there replaying in my head when the siren went on the Collingwood 50 metre arc. And I'll remember knowing that all Collingwood needed was five more seconds, one more chance, because I knew that was all we needed to win. But most of all I'll remember seeing Nathan Buckley standing on edge of the MCG grass simply looking up into the sky, soaking up the atmosphere of his final match ever, and at that moment the blankness subsided, albeit temporarily, and the cold reality kicked in - for me and for Bucks, it was over.

Not as clear cut as it seems

2008-10-15T17:20:00.002+11:00

Ladies and gentlemen get ready for your 2008 World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays vs. the... Los Angeles Dodgers!

That's right, the Dodgers could very well be the World Series. I don't think a 3-1 series deficit has ever been so misleading. The Dodgers have been the better team in three out of four games, but are down 3-1 because of four swings of the bat. The Dodgers have looked much better the past two games. I believe that Cole Hamels will prove to everyone that he's still soft with a weak performance on the road, Chad Billingsley bounces back behind his home crowd and the Dodgers go back to Philly full of confidence. Brett Myers will break down under the pressure and then it'll come down to Lowe vs. Moyer in Game 7, a match where the Dodgers would be favoured. The series rests with Hamels and his arm tomorrow night.

The other series you have to figure is as good as over. 9-1 and 13-4 wins on the road is extraordinary. How has this happened?

a) Upton/Longoria/Pena/Crawford
Combined these guys have 7 HR, 20 RBI, 10 walks and are hitting 23 for 56 (.411). They get big hits and come up strong for their team whenever required. Their were questions about the Rays potency on offense - these guys have made that argument mute.

b) Pitching
Ironically the only Rays big name pitcher (Scott Kazmir) failed miserably while the three lesser lights have shone tremendously. James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine have combined for 20.2 innings giving up just 18 hits, 6 walks and 6 earned runs while striking out 13. These guys haven't been overpowering (just 13 K's) but they are pitching with intelligence and poise, and going deep enough to cover up the surprisingly suspect bullpen the Rays have thrown out.

c) Dan Wheeler
You can't overstate how big this guy's performance was in Game 2. Lose that game and let's face it the Rays are probably done. He came in early, messed up, then atoned incredibly. If the Rays win the World Series you can point back to 3.1 innings, 4 K's and 1 hit allowed as the major reason.

d) Defense
The Rays own the best defense in the major leagues and it's showing. Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett has to be about the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. This team manages to turn double plays when they have to, and they do it fantastically.

e) Boston
This Red Sox team just doesn't have it, but it's tough to blame them. Their #1 pitcher and #1 hitter are both injured to the point of being borderline useless. David Ortiz has zero presence at the plate and is 1 for 14 at the plate. Beckett's injury has hurt even more. The ability to throw out a guy and know that he's going to get it done is invaluable in the postseason. Beckett just doesn't have it right now. J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell are injured adding further stress to the lineup. There is too much pressure on Jon Lester to get it done, and if you can retire Pedroia and Youkillis then you've pretty much got the match won. The Red Sox are a fine team, baseball's best shot at a dynasty at present - but it's not going to happen for them in 2008.

Defense

Tony Romo isn't a good quarterback... and neither is Joe Flacco

2008-10-13T19:39:00.002+11:00

Tony Romo is the most overrated player in the NFL. I'll stand by that. His success is a product of the players around him and the system that he is in. I genuinely believe that if you were to substitute him with Kurt Warner the Dallas Cowboys would be a football team. It's a bit tough to call Romo a 'bad' quarterback, but at times he really harms his team. He spends way too long in the pocket, tries to force throws, makes careless mental mistakes and refuses to give up on plays. When you're handing the ball off to Marion Barber and Felix Jones, and have Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton as targets obviously you're got an upper hand from the beginning. Romo's not taking advantage of it. On the surface Romo's 24/39 321 yards and 3 TD's is a fantastic game today. But the number that stands out to me is this - 3. 3: the number of times Tony Romo fumbled the ball, in instances due to mental errors and trying to create plays that simply weren't there. On the joke of a rule called the 'tuck rule' Romo avoided a fourth fumble and a subsequent Arizona touchdone. 3: the number of times Romo was sacked, all on occasions where he tried too hard to keep a play going when the best option was to simply throw away the ball.

I can't call Tony Romo a bad quarterback. What I will say though is that he's an overrated one, and he doesn't help his team as much as he should. When he does then maybe we can consider Dallas a genuine contender. On to the rankings.

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
The number one team maintains their position. The teams that follow them - Denver (loss), Buffalo (bye), Pittsburgh (bye), New England (loss) and Baltimore (loss) - didn't exactly do much to state their own case. The number one team until they're defeated.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 4)
There are more talented teams, and certainly more healthy ones, but you'd be hard pressed to find a team with as much heart as the Steelers. The schedule is tough, but given the class and resiliency of this team, especially in their division, they're a virtual lock for the playoffs.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 3)
Are they too young? How they come out of the bye week will speak volumes about the Bills. They're coming off three mediocre performances in a row, and Marshawn Lynch has been quiet of late. Huge game against the Chargers.

4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2, LW: -)
They're baaaaaaaaack. Certainly feels like the Colts have woken up. 31 points against the NFL's #1 ranked defense with Peyton, Marvin and Reggie back to their old tricks has to have the rest of the AFC worried. @Green Bay and @Tennessee the next two weeks will be big.

5. Denver Broncos (4-2, LW: 2)
Not looking as good now are they. They're susceptible to the run, and you can't help but feel that the Tampa game might have been an abberation. They'll score a lot, they'll give up a lot, whether or not they'll win a lot is unclear.

6. San Diego Chargers (3-3, LW: -)
In undoubtedly the game of the week the Chargers came out and made a huge statement at home against the reeling Patriots. LT wasn't great but he showed some zip, but the story was Phil Rivers. He only had to throw 27 times for 300+ yards and his now routine trio of TD's. Rivers' willingness to throw the long ball might be the greatest positive difference between this year's Chargers and the teams of 06/07.

On the outside looking in

NY Jets (3-2, LW: -)
The Jets seem like a solid 8-8 or 9-7 football team to me. Despite their wins they're yet to beat a decent team (Miami without the wildcat, an Arizona team that can't play on the road, and the winless Bengals). They might not have to though to get into the playoffs, their schedule is piss easy. They still have games against Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco and Miami.
Jacksonville (3-3, LW: -)
Finally they put together a comprehensive performance. That said they were a good matchup for the Broncos with their greatest strength (rushing offense) going against Denver's greatest weakness.
New England (3-2, LW: 5)
I watched the clash against the Chargers and this Patriots team looks awful. The run game is mediocre at best, the secondary can be targeted and then there's Matt Cassel. This guy is terrible. He's reduced the offense to slant passes. He missed Randy Moss open on a long ball by eight or nine yards, and he had three passing opportunities on a goal line play and screwed up all of them. The Patriots aren't making the playoffs with Cassel at the helm.
Baltimore (2-3, LW: 6)
Okay I was wrong, I'll admit it. The Ravens are going anywhere fast. The defense may be great, but it's overrated and it's not going to compensate for the horrible offense. Right now Joe Flacco is simply not a good player. A 1 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio is just awful.

I just want to say that for the first time this year I'm feeling pretty confident about the AFC playoff picture. Tennessee and Pittsburgh seem like pretty sure bets, and you have to expect the Bills to be in there. Obviously one of the Chargers and Broncos will win the division, and the other will probably get the Wild Card. New York, New England and Jacksonville are all a shot at the other Wild Card, but I like the Colts over all of them.

NFC

1. NY Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
The champs stay here at least until tomorrow night.

2. Arizona Cardinals (4-2, LW: 6)
Really? I think it has to be. Who else? The Cardinals have played as well as anyone over the past two weeks beating two of what most would consider to be the top six teams in the league. Kurt Warner runs the offense well, Edge James and Hightower represent a solid running game and Larry Fitzgerald is a freak.

3. Tampa Bay Buccanneers (4-2, LW: -)
After today I don't think anyone can argue with placing them above Carolina. The run game is good, the defense is excellent, and Jeff Garcia can manage an offense. Put it this way - the Bucs have lost two games this year, both on the road to decent teams by a combined margin of 7 points. Their four wins have come against four teams all at .500 or better by a combined margin of 51 points. Super Bowl team? Probably not. Playoff team? I'd say so.

4. Washington Redskins (4-2, LW: 2)
St. Louis hurts. On the road you could maybe justify it - new coach, players with something to prove - but at home there's no excuses. When Jason Campbell and Santana Moss don't have it going the Redskins offense looks painfully one-dimensional. Clinton Portis will only take this team so far.

5. Dallas Cowboys (4-2, LW: 4)
Enough said at the top really. The Cowboys along with the Chargers are the most talented team in the NFL, there's little question of that. Mentally though they might be the weakest. This team just makes dumb plays. They need to get their act together, and fast.

6. Green Bay Packers (3-3, LW: -)
Big win on the road against the Hawks, great performance from Rodgers. The offense with Rodgers, Jennings, Driver and Grant is dynamite if they can get it together. Driver and Grant need to lift.

On the outside looking in

Minnesota
a) putting up 12 points against Detroit is a worry, b) doing it at home is an even bigger one. The fire the coach chants in Minnesota were well warranted, this team was supposed to be going to the Super Bowl. Teams are just going to stuff Adrian Peterson all day, so a lot of matches are going to hinge on Gus Frerotte's arm. That's not good.
Atlanta
Sorry, still don't buy it. Beating the Bears the way they did was a fluke, there's no other way to put it. Where that game was at with 12 seconds to go or whatever, the Bears will win 98 times out of 100. It just happned to be one of those two times for Atlanta. Still haven't beaten a team with more wins than losses.
Chicago
Pretty incredible, that's the third game they absolutely should have won but lost. Giving new meaning to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Philadelphia
The season would have been flashing before their eyes at three quarter time against the Niners. The Eagles are a good team, but you have to question their all round ability to compete with the other teams in their division. I don't think the Eagles are as good as anyone in the NFC East let alone the Bucs, Panthers, Cardinals and even teams like the Bears and Packers can stand up to the Eagles.

Super Bowl pick
New York, New York.

NFL Week 6 picks

2008-10-12T10:11:00.005+11:00

Last week: 6-8 (42-32)

Trying to atone for my miserable 6-8 from last week...

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2)
Two of the surprise teams of the year, one more so than the other. I still don't like Kyle Orton despite his decent stats - he inspires zero confidence. I'm actually pretty sure I'd take the QB/RB combo of Ryan/Turner over Orton/Forte. In spite of that I think the Bears win here. Atlanta comes back down to Earth after tight win in Lambeau and the Bears D comes up big. Chicago 27 Atlanta 20

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-3)
Really important match-up for both teams here. This is make or break for the Colts. A loss here and they're 2-4, four games behind in the loss column to the Titans and competing with the Chargers, Patriots, Jags, Jets and co for the Wild Card. Baltimore should run with abandon against the worst rush defense in the league. Peyton Manning won't be on the field much, but I think Baltimore loses another game in the fourth quarter that they should have won. Indianapolis 19 Baltimore 16

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3)
Massive win for the Vikes on Monday Night to pretty much keep their season alive. They follow it up with a take care of business game at home against Detroit. Peterson will be wild. Minnesota 37 Detroit 21

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3)
Danger game for the Saints because the Raiders aren't that bad. That said Drew Brees doesn't let them lose this one. New Orleans 28 Oakland 23

Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2)
The Bengals are seemingly getting better each week. The Jets game against Arizona was probably their aberration game of the year. If the Jets are to be legitimate playoff contenders these are games they absolutely must win. NY Jets 27 Cincinnati 24

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2)
Clash of the AFC South titans. Both teams play similar styles, great defense and pound it with a double-headed running game. The edge goes to Carolina in the passing game though. On a last quarter drive who do you want - Jeff Garcia throwing to Antonio Bryant, or Jake Delhomme throwing to Steve Smith? That outweighs home field advantage. Carolina 24 Tampa Bay 14

St Louis (0-5) at Washington (4-1) LOCK OF THE WEEK
Could be ugly. Very ugly. Washington 35 St. Louis 13

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4)
The Texans aren't as bad as they look. They've had a shocking schedule with their first four games on the road. They nearly beat the Colts and the Titans too. I like their chances here at home with the Wildcats, er, Dolphins coming back down to Earth. Houston 27 Miami 16

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1)
The Jags are really not a good football team. They looked atrocious on Monday night. The running game has become stagnant and the entire offense relies on David Garrard. The defense is no better either, susceptible to the pass. The Jags runners might go wild on the Denver D, but the Denver pass is going to do the same and worse to Jacksonville. Denver 28 Jacksonville 21

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2)
Being touted as a danger game all over the place, but Dallas will come out and re-assert their claim as the best team in football. Dallas 36 Arizona 17

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3)
Philadelphia might have to win all of their out-of-division matches to make the playoffs, shocking as that sounds. Don't pencil this in as a win though, Frank Gore, JT and the Niners aren't all that bad. That said when good teams need to win they generally do. Philadelphia 26 San Francisco 17.

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3)
If Seattle lose this one at home against a banged up out of sorts Green Bay I think you could just about call time on their season. If Hasselbeck plays I think they win, if he doesn't they don't. Green Bay 21 Seattle 17

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) UPSET OF THE WEEK
One of the better rivalries in the game right now, and hands down the clash of the week. The Chargers might be the better team but New England are more balanced and better coached. Look for the Pats to place a nail over the San Diego coffin. New England 20 San Diego 15

NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3)
Not exactly must-see TV for a Monday night clash. The Giants take care of business and Derek Anderson loses his business. New York 30 Cleveland 19

Someone has to win

2008-10-09T22:00:00.002+11:00

The four teams left in baseball are all losers of sorts. We don't have teams like the wildly successful Yankees or Cardinals playing, we've got four teams all built in losing traditions.

The Phillies have just one World Series title, opposed to four losses, which is the lowest for any non-expansion team. Oh yeah and they've lost more matches than any other team in the sport. They've put together a decent team now, and with no clear favourite for the title they'll believe that they're a legitimate shot at their first championship in 28 years.

The Dodgers have six World Series to their credit, but they've lost twice that amount. That, and the heart and culture of the club was formed in their New York days getting beat up on by the Yankees on a regular basis. Right now this team is riding a hot streak, the hottest of the four teams left, and stands probably the better chance of coming out of the NL.

You can't talk about losing without mentioning the Red Sox and Rays, probably the two best examples of the lesser fate in baseball. The Rays are defined as losers. They lose. It's what they do, and what they do best. This is their first season over the 70 win mark, it's extraordinary. What's more extraordinary is that they're probably going in favourites against a team that has won two of the past four World Series titles.

That of course is the Boston Red Sox, who despite the recent success remain the most recognisable loser in all of sports. Unlike the Rays who have simply lost and lost again, the Red Sox won quite a few matches - they just lost all the ones that counted. Now though those days seem to be behind them, they're establishing a dynasty set to imitate the best days of their arch-rivals.

For the record, I like the Dodgers over the Phillies in 6. The offenses are a wash in my eyes. The Phillies might hit for more power but that Dodgers lineup with Furcal, Martin, Manny, Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Blake and more is just as dangerous, and more balanced too. Seems like the Phillies depend way too much on Rollins, Howard and Utley, who are going to have to have a big series for the Phillies to stay close. Lowe-Billingsley-Kuroda tops Hamels-Myers-Moyer too. The Phillies might have the best bullpen in the NL, but it's not going to be a huge advantage because the Dodgers might run a close 2nd. In the end though it comes down to this - the Phillies struggled to take down a bad team in four games, while the Dodgers dominated a good team in three. I like the Dodgers.

Red Sox-Rays is virtually impossible to pick. I've yet to see a truly persuasive argument for either. Red Sox starting pitching is better, Rays defense is better, Red Sox offense is better, Rays bullpen is better. The greatest edge I think goes to the Rays in the bullpen area. In the middle innings you can genuinely count on guys like Bradford, Howell and Balfour to get guys out. Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima don't exactly inspire the same confidence. The Red Sox offense is a lot better than the Rays though it must be said. The Rays have one intimidating hitter (Longoria), the Red Sox have four and maybe five. The thing is though that of the four or five guys, David Ortiz is clearly struggling at the plate, J.D. Drew is injured, and Dustin Pedroia had one hit against the Angels. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkillis are good players, but bona fide superstars they are not. Jon Lester is clearly the best pitcher in this series, but the Rays might only have to deal with him twice. Matsuzaka is overrated and Beckett is a shadow of his former self right now. I'll take the Red Sox trio over Shields-Kazmir-Garza, but the gap isn't that great.

I really can't pick a winner here. As unfair as it may sound, I think this series comes down to Evan Longoria's bat. I figure their will be about four, maybe five situations where he'll be in a position where can change the game (bases loaded one out, runners on first and second two out, etc) and if he can come up big in two of three of those I think the Rays win the series. The Red Sox when healthy are clearly the better team, but with Beckett, Drew and Lowell all struggling I'm going with the Rays in 7.

'07 powers failing

2008-10-08T17:53:00.002+11:00

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (5-0, LW: 1)
I don't think anyone can question this team's ranking now. A perfect 5-0 and the undisputed class of the AFC. A 2 1/2 game lead in the AFC South already, this team is built for the long run. Hands down the best defense in the league, a great running game and now a quarterback who can lead them from behind in the dying minutes. At the beginning of the year the schedule looked brutal, but now that we've seen the Colts, Jaguars and Texans to be more or less impotent the run home doesn't look too difficult now.

2. Denver Broncos (4-1, LW: 4)
I'm not in love with this ranking but I think it can be justified. The offense is obviously explosive, the best in the AFC. The win over Tampa Bay was massive, if the defense can play like that all year then the Broncos can win a playoff game or two. The major reason for the high ranking though is the shockingly easy schedule they have.

3. Buffalo Bills (4-1, LW: 2)
Not quite time to panic but pretty close. This is now three consecutive sub-par performances in a row from the Bills, but this time they didn't have Trent Edwards to bail them out in the end. The bye week has come at the right time, hopefully they can get their act together. The home game against San Diego the week after is going to be huge.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1, LW: 6)
Have to give a lot of credit to Ben Roeslithberger, that's two weeks in a row he's practically willed his team to victory. The helmet catch was incredible, but Big Ben was pulling an Eli on pretty much every play in that second half. The bye couldn't have come sooner.

5. New England Patriots (3-1, LW: 4)
Start to like their chances as the division champions. The team we saw against San Francisco is probably going to be the Patriots team we see for the rest of the year. This Pats team has all the makings of a 10-6 unit.

6. Baltimore Ravens (2-2, LW: -)
Two losses in a row moves you up in my rankings. The Steelers and Titans are two quality teams and Baltimore probably should have beaten both of them. The defense is fantastic and if Joe Flacco can get it together this team is an outside chance at the playoffs.

On the outside looking in:

San Diego (2-3, LW: 3)
Who knows with these Chargers. They looked so good against New York I think I might have overrated them. No excuses for losing to Miami. Phil Rivers has come back down to Earth, LT is injured and the defense is terrible. With Denver's lead the Chargers absolutely must beat New England.
Miami (2-2, LW: -)
This Miami team is extraordinary. To be a 1-15 team one year and then beat the two teams that played off in the championship game convincingly the next is amazing. I still can't buy them totally though. I want to see them take care of Houston first.
Indianapolis (2-2, LW: -)
Speaking of extraordinary, how is this team not 0-4? And even more to the point, how is this team in a position to possibly being 0-4? This Colts team has played terribly, but by virtue of luck and some Manning they can still turn it around. They can't afford to keep on playing like this though, the upcoming stretch is brutal. Baltimore, @ Green Bay, @ Tennessee, New England, @ Pittsburgh. Ouch.
Jacksonville (2-3, LW: -)
This team is really not good. I watched the Sunday night clash against Pittsburgh and this team inspires no confidence. The defense is mediocre and the running game is easily stuffed. They're basically dependent on David Garrard's arm to win matches, and that's not really a good thing. I can't see this team making the playoffs, winning half their games is going to be hard enough a task.

NFC

1. New York Giants (4-0, LW: 1)
Everything's shaping up nicely for the G-men. Eli has well and truly taken the leap now, the defense is fantastic and the running game is great too. The best all-round team in the game right now.

2. Washington Redskins (4-1, LW: -)
Okay, now I'm buying it. You can write off one remarkable win, but to beat Dallas and Phildadelphia back-to-back on the road means your the real deal. The defense is stout and Clinton Portis might be the best back in the game right now. The schedule gets much easier now too. A real danger team.

3. Carolina Panthers (4-1, LW: 3)
You know, if I had to bet on one team to make the playoffs it might well be these Panthers. The NFC South is really not that strong, and the Panthers are just a fantastic all round team. Good on defense, good in the air, good on the ground. They just don't seem to have the extra level to maybe match it with the truly elite, but we'll see.

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-1, LW: 2)
The half-hearted win against the Bengals might be more troubling than the loss to the Redskins. This is a game that they absolutely should have won by four touchdowns, but were one fluke play away from having to deal with Carson Palmer marching down the field to win the match. They'll still make the playoffs, but the defense is beatable and Tony Romo hasn't shown himself to be the quarterback we thought he was.

5. Minnesota Vikings (2-3, LW: -)
With Tampa's and Chicago's impotent offenses, Green Bay's injuries and inexperience, I like the Vikes to come out of the North right now. The run game and the defense against the run is one of the best in the league. You can not run against this time. Loved Gus Frerotte bringing the deep ball on Monday night too.

6. Arizona Cardinals (3-2, LW: -)
Three weeks, three different winners I have coming out of the dreary West. After Seattle's performance on the weekend I don't think you can consider them at this point. The 49ers are close, but the Cardinals might be better all round.

On the outside looking in:

Chicago (3-2, LW: 5)
I just don't like the offense. Kyle Orton is not a good quarterback, and against good teams when they fall behind they're going to struggle. Really struggle.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, LW: 4)
A victim of their surroundings. In the NFC West the Eagles might go 13-3 and get a bye in the first week. But in the East the Eagles look like a 9-7 team that finishes outside the playoff bracket. They are a very good team, but with Westbrooke's troubles they just aren't quite there.
Tampa Bay (3-2, LW: -)
Putting up 13 points against Denver is not a good sign. The quarterback situation is too messed up to consider this team a contender.
Green Bay (2-3, LW: -)
I still like this team, but losing to Atlanta at home is worrying. By the time they get it together with health they might be too far out to contend.

Super Bowl pick: It's the New York Giants. The most complete team in the league now that Eli Manning has truly made the team his own. More composed than Dallas, better than the Redskins, and their advantage on offense outweighs their disadvantage on defense when compared to the Titans.

Jxxxx Bxxxxx Sxxxxxx

NFL week 5 picks

2008-10-04T13:05:00.003+10:00

Last week: 8-5 (Season: 36-24)

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1)
Carolina are in great shape to really grab hold of the NFC South these upcoming weeks. After hosting Kansas they go @Tampa, New Orleans, Arizona, BYE, @Oakland, Detroit, @Atlanta. In this upcoming stretch before the bye even if they only go 2-2, they should be looking to take all three games after the bye which would have them at 8-3 and a near lock for the playoffs. 2-2 is a conservative estimate though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers didn't drop a game until Week 13 at Green Bay. Love the look of them. Steve Smith played a good game against Atlanta, and Jake Delhomme is a quarterback that can take them deep into January. Kansas City are pretenders, Larry Johnson won't have another game like that this year. The Panthers D is a lot tougher than Denver's as well. Carolina 31 Kansas City 14

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-4)
The goal line stand against Philly, and Brian Westbrook's absence, probably saved Chicago's season last Sunday. 1-3 in a relatively decent division is a hole that would be difficult to escape. Minnesota will probably tell you that come January. Must-win take care of business game here for the Bears. Possible danger game, I think the Lions are better than what they've shown so far this year. If the Lions get ahead early, say 14-3 or something, they're a great chance to go and win. Kyle Orton is not a quarterback you want to trust to lead you when you're behind. That said I think Devon Hester is due for a big special teams play and the Chicago defense should do enough to win. Chicago 30 Detroit 24

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2)
Really important game for Green Bay here, for obvious reasons. Green Bay was my Super Bowl pick out of the NFC in the preseason and two weeks in that was looking pretty good. Now not so much. The secondary is banged up, Aaron Rodgers is questionable and Ryan Grant has done nothing. That said I think come Sunday they grind out a tough win, with or without Rodgers. I think Ryan Grant breaks loose and the Packers get back over .500. Green Bay 21 Atlanta 17

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2)
This Miami team is impossible to figure. They beat the Patriots, were one play from beating the relatively decent Jets, but were blown out by the mediocre Cardinals. I think the Jets game is probably the best indication of where they stand. I'm guessing Ronnie Brown gets shut down by the Chargers defense, LT goes wild and Phil Rivers throws multiple touchdown passes. San Diego 37 Miami 21.

Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0)
Must win here for the Giants to assert themselves at the top of the NFC East. They have to take care of business these coming weeks (Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) because the schedule afterwards is not fun. After Week 7 they don't have an easy game. Seattle looms as a danger team. Matt Hasselbeck is healthier and has some toys now. No Plax will matter. Similar to the Cincinnati win I think the Giants escape in a close one. NY Giants 24 Seattle 23

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2)
I'm still not buying these Redskins. They looked so bad against New York back in week one. They escaped narrowly against the Saints and Cardinals which makes the win in Dallas all the more incredible. Common sense dictates that they're better than the loss in the Meadowlands, but not as good as the win in Texas. On the other hand I think Philly are the real deal. In two games that could have gone either way they came up on the short-end. They could easily be 4-0. A real must-win for them here, a 2-3 hole in the East could be fatal. That enough should be inspiration to get them over the line. Philadelphia 27 Washington 20

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) UPSET OF THE WEEK
This game could go to OT with the scores locked at 0-0. Both defenses are fantastic and both offenses are pretty impotent. At this point in time I think the Titans are the class of the AFC, but I think the Ravens are a team that can give them some problems. I like the look of this Ravens team, they were very unlucky not to beat the Steelers and go to 3-0. With some plays by the defense and special teams, as well as the hostile Baltimore crowd I think the Ravens eke out a tough win here. Baltimore 14 Tennessee 9

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3)
Massive danger game here for the Colts. They haven't looked good this year, and away to the Texans, a decent home team that isn't as bad as advertised, they could be in some trouble. Steve Slaton will probably go wild against the weak Colts run defense, but Peyton Manning can have a day out against this defense. It'll be tight, but the Colts should get over the line. Indianapolis 28 Houston 20

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1)
Two teams not as good as their records indicate. The Broncos could, and probably should, be 1-3 and the Bucs have won a pair of games that could have gone either way. It's a great offense against a great defense, but the game will probably be won or lost on the other side. Trust Earnest Graham to have a good game and run the clock to keep Jay Cutler off the field. Tampa Bay 24 Denver 20

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2)
Hard to figure out this Arizona team. Giving up 56 points to the Jets offense, a slightly above offense at best, is unforgivable. At home they should bounce back a bit, but I still like the Bills in this game. The Bills have played back-to-back mediocre grind it out matches against weak teams, so they'll want to put in a good performance against the Cards. Expect Trent Edwards to have a good game against the weak Arizona secondary. Buffalo 34 Arizona 24

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2)
We'll have a much better idea of where the Pats stand after this game. Both of these teams are coming off hugely disappointing performances, but the Pats have had an extra week to figure out what went wrong. The Miami game was so bizarre and unlikely I think you have to throw it out the door. The Patriots team I expect to see for the rest of the season will resemble the team that played smart football to beat the Jets back in week two. A winnable game for San Francisco here, but New England should get over the line. New England 20 San Francisco 13

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1)
A winless team without its starting quarterback against a juggernaut with something to prove. Not a good combination for Bengals fans. This could get ugly, and I mean really ugly. It should be high scoring enough that the Bengals don't embarass themselves too much. Dallas 47 Cincinnati 24

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The injuries that the Steelers have suffered combined with the short turnaround after the emotion charged win against Baltimore adds up nicely for Jacksonville. Jacksonville still hasn't played a comprehensive game yet, but they should be able to show the Steelers that they can win without the heroism of Josh Scobee. Jacksonville 32 Pittsburgh 14

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2)
If the Vikings are down at any stage in the last quarter the season will be flashing before their eyes. The alleged Super Bowl contenders are a good shot at being 1-4 after Monday night's clash with the Saints. The Vikings pass defense is its greatest weakness, not a good thing with Drew Brees on the mound. 400 yards from Brees is more likely than not. New Orleans 35 Minnesota 24

Playoff predictions

2008-10-01T15:35:00.002+10:00

Thanks to Danks and Thome the White Sox are in the playoffs. The matchups are now set, and games kick-off tomorrow. No better time to analyse them.

NL

Phildadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Expect a few 15 run games. The balance of quality offense vs. quality pitching here is shocking. The Brewers have Sabathia and that's it. Philly has Hamels (not so good lately), Myers (even worse) and Moyer (64 years old). Offensively though we're going to see Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. It probably won't be pretty but the series will be exciting.

Hard to see the Phillies losing this series. Offensively the teams are a wash, with maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. But on the pitching front the Phillies win out. You have to expect one of Hamels and Myers to pitch a great game, Jamie Moyer has been fantastic of late, and Joe Blanton is servicable. The Brewers have Sabathia and then literally no one. The fact that the Phillies beat the Brewers 5-1 in the season series (with a recent sweep) doesn't bode well for the people of Milwaukee. Phillies sweep.

Cubs vs. LA Dodgers
The best team in the league against the hottest. Top to bottom the Cubs are hands down the best team in the NL and the best placed to go to the World Series. That said playing the hot Dodgers in a 5 game series is no sure thing. If the Dodgers can grab one of two in Chicago all of a sudden they're in excellent shape. The Cubs have some questions. Zambrano has been out of sorts, Harden is a 6-inning pitcher, and Ryan Dempster has never done this before. A big hit here or there and catching a few breaks could have the Dodgers going to the NLCS. That said you have to like the Cubs. The Dodgers hot streak has come against mediocre teams and the Cubs have been the best team since day one. I think Billingsley gets the win against Zambrano but the Cubs take two in LA. Cubs in 4

AL

Tampa Bay vs. White Sox
The White Sox are the worst team in the postseason. They owe more to the failures of Cleveland and Detroit than they will ever know. Some big hits and clutch pitching has aided them over the past three days and they'll enter Tampa full of confidence. But aside from the Ramirez slam against the Tigers yesterday the offense without Carlos Quentin has been stagnant and the rotation of Vasquez, Buehrle, Danks and Floyd is far from frightening. In fact you'd take the Rays top three guys over any of them. The Rays are a better team offensively, defensively and on the pitching front. Add homefield advantage to that and nothing looks good for Chicago. Tampa Bay sweep

LA Angels vs. Boston
The marquee matchup of the first round. You could make a case that this is the World Series right here, the two most complete teams in baseball. They say that the 5 game format helps the weaker team, but here I think it favours Anaheim. They only have to face Josh Beckett once, and the Sox have less time to get Lowell and Drew healthy. I think the series might come down to the huge game one matchup of Lester and Lackey. A must-win for the Angels because I don't see the Angels winning at Fenway. I don't they'll have to though. Angels in 5

Power shift

2008-09-30T19:26:00.002+10:00

The fourth consecutive bizarre week in the NFL. Upsets all round and the confusion in the AFC playoff picture has now been matched by the NFC. What do we make of losses to Dallas and Denver, and the mediocre performances of San Diego, Buffalo and Jacksonville? Are Washington the real deal? Plenty of questions, all of which are answered below.

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (4-0, LW: 1)
The class of the AFC. Four games in and they haven't really been tested yet. Hands down the best defense in the league, and the offense is capable enough to get by. 30+ points the last two weeks shows that they aren't a slouch on offense. The running game is still going smoothly, and Kerry Collins has been competent. It's a bit depressing to think how good they would be if Vince Young had lived up to his potential. This team can run away with the AFC South.

2. Buffalo Bills (4-0, LW: 2)
The second shaky performance in a row, but this tough is only going to help them later on in the year. They're coming up big under pressure and Trent Edwards is showing he can perform on fourth quarter drives. The defense is stellar and they did will to escape a potential danger game with a victory.

3. San Diego Chargers (2-2, LW: 3)
Not thrilled with this pick, considering the 15-0 halftime deficit in lowly Oakland, but looking at the competition I don't know who else belongs here. At the very least you can't question the team's spirit. In their two losses and the game against Oakland they came out after halftime, came from behind and played spirited football. The next test is playing four quarters of good football.

4. New England Patriots (2-1, LW: 6)
Almost every team in the AFC got worse this weekend, so doing nothing moves you up in my eyes. No matter how good a certain player is, even if he's Tom Brady, I don't believe all of a sudden you can go from 16-0 to a mediocre team. If the Patriots can incorporate Randy Moss into the offense they should be fine given the strength of their shockingly easy schedule.

5. Denver Broncos (3-1, LW: 4)
Could easily be, and probably should be, 1-3. The offense might be amazing but when the defense gives up that many yards a game it's a difficult flaw to cover up. They aren't really a contender but they should still make the playoffs. Why? After the bye week they have a stretch where they go Miami, @Cleveland, @Atlanta, Oakland, @Jets, Kansas City. They should go at least 5-1 in that stretch.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, LW: 5)
Dodged a bullet today. Huge win over the Ravens to gain control of the AFC North. The Ravens had that game but the Steelers came from nowhere. Pittsburgh is too banged up and too weak on the offensive line to be considered true contenders, but given the weak division they play in they'll be in the playoffs. The schedule the AFC North drew is horrible for them, so 9-7 will more likely than not win you the division.

On the outside looking in:

Jacksonville (2-2, LW: -)
I don't know how you can like any team that is two field goal kicks from being 0-4. The run game isn't the same as it was last year, and David Garrard (despite the strong performance yesterday) is looking shaky. Will probably be in a battle for the Wild Card.
Indianapolis (1-2, LW: -)
This AFC is so wide open it wouldn't shock me if Indy suddenly got its act together and came from nowhere to take the championship. But considering their porous run defense and the health concerns on offense, it's hard to like them right now. The schedule is brutal as well. Already 1-2, the Colts have to play Tennessee twice, New England, and away to Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Diego. Even games they have like away to Houston next week are no gimme.
Baltimore (2-1, LW: -)
Season might have ended today. Win that game against Pittsburgh and the Ravens are 3-0, 2 games clear of the Steelers and in control of the division. The defense looks good and the offense at the very least does a capable job of moving forward. Joe Flacco doesn't inspire that much confidence though, missing a wide open Ray Rice in the second quarter on that play was called back was shocking. The next two weeks (home to Tennessee, at Indy) will go a long way to establishing their season. A split their and the division is not out of the question.
NY Jets (2-2, LW: -)
Still don't buy it. I think the Arizona game was their abberation game, where simply everything went right on offense. The defense is swiss cheese (84 points conceded the past two weeks) and Favre is never going to play like that again.

NFC

1. NY Giants (3-0, LW: 3)
Has to be doesn't it? The Eagles and Cowboys failed to impress so until proven otherwise the Giants are the class of the NFC. The Plaxico situation raises a few concerns, but with Seattle, Cleveland and San Fran coming in the next few weeks they'll have a while to sort it out.

2. Dallas Cowboys (3-1, LW: 1)
Washington game raises some concerns. You still have to question their chemistry and intelligence on offense. The loss was no fluke, they were genuinely outplayed by the Redskins.

3. Carolina Panthers (3-1, LW: 4)
I like the look of this Panthers team. The Panthers are solid on D, and the offense looks great. The running back tandem is solid, Jake Delhomme looks good and Steve Smith is definitely back. My pick to win the South.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, LW: 2)
Don't put too much weight on the loss to Chicago. Away in a tough environment without their best player, and they were literally two inches from winning the match. How strange was Desean Jackson on Sunday, has a wide receiver ever had so much positive and negative impact on a game? Scores a touchdown and gets two huge runs, but a) fumbles a punt that is recovered by the bears, b) misjudges a punt which leads to the Eagles being pinned inside their own 5, and c) run a route wrong, which led to an interception. Amazing.

5. Chicago (2-2, LW: -)
Got to love the heart this team showed against the Eagles. That goal line stand could be the launching point of a playoff season. The defense is as good as any, the special teams probably the best in the league, but you have to worry about the offense. Lets not kid ourselves, Kyle Orton is dreadful. The amazing thing is that it may not matter. With that defense and Devon Hester the offense is going to getting the ball around midfield time and time again. With the Packers banged up and the Vikes shaky you have to like the Bears in the North.

6. Seattle Seahawks (1-2, LW: -)
I'm over my 49ers love. With Branch and Engram coming back the Hawks will be in decent shape for the rest of the season. Despite the poor start to the year Seattle is still tied for the division lead in the loss column. 7-9 will win this division, I kid you not.

On the outside looking in:

Washington (3-1, LW: -)
Not buying it. As good as they were against Dallas I think that was just a case of everything going right for the Skins, and catching Dallas on a bad day. The fact that they've outscored their opponents by just 5 points on the season means something.
Green Bay (2-2, LW: 4)
Past two weeks raise some concern. The loss of key players on defense hurts and with Ryan Grant and now Rodgers banged up things don't look good. The season may hinge on Ryan Grant's ability to match last year's form.
New Orleans (2-2, LW: -)
Drew Brees is carrying this team more than any other individual is carrying a team in the NFL. Not sure where I stand on the Saints. Defense is terrible and receiving corps banged up, but they're one big Redskins play and the boot of Martin Gramatica away from being 4-0. Keep an eye on them.
Tampa Bay (3-1, LW: -)
I don't know about them. Solid team that seemingly gets it done. Virtually no shot at that Super Bowl, but they might get into the playoffs. Unlike last year I don't think 9-7 wins the South, Carolina is too good.
San Francisco (2-2, LW: 6)
Scoring one touchdown against the terrible New Orleans defense is a concern.

Super Bowl pick: After the Dallas loss I think now it has to be Tennessee. The defense is phenomenal, the offense gets it done and most importantly the team seems locked in and focused. That's a pretty good mix.

The obligatory awards

2008-09-29T14:54:00.006+10:00

2008 AFL MVP
Gary Ablett, Geelong

Changed the way the game is played. Ablett forced coaches into conceding defeat and focusing on limiting Ablett's dominance instead of stopping it. It became simply a matter of how much Ablett was going to dominate matches, not whether or not it was going to happen. 29 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, a goal and a goal assist is usually going get you three votes. They werre Ablett's averages for the season. His 39 disposal, 2 goal, 3 goal assist, 5 tackles and 12 inside 50 turn against North Melbourne in Round 11 was the best individual performance of the year by far. Only enhanced his reputation in finals, best for his team in the Grand Final. The best player in the league right now, and I don't think that can be debated.
Runners-up (in order): Lance Franklin, Brent Harvey, Simon Black, Nick Riewoldt, Chris Judd, Adam Cooney, James Bartel, Matthew Richardson, Adam Goodes.

LVP (Least Valuable Player)
Chad Fletcher, West Coast

Soon to be renamed the Chad Fletcher award for ineptitude. When choosing the least valuable player in the league you don't look for simply bad players. Someone like Sam Iles (yeah, who?) might not be very good at football, but he doesn't hurt the team. I'm looking at players that when you see lining up for the opposition you smile. Chad Fletcher is one of these such players. More often than not Fletcher makes a) bad decisions with the ball, and b) disposes of it poorly. The beauty of Fletcher is that he finds the ball with ease, and racks up disposals at a rate that places him among the league leaders on a yearly basis. So basically the player who is arguably worst at disposing of the ball is getting the opportunity to do so on a frequent rate. Maybe West Coast should simply dispose of him.
Runners-up: Warren Tredrea, Nathan Thompson, Tom Hawkins

Rising star
Rhys Palmer, Fremantle

The most exciting young talent in the league. This guy is great to watch. His endurance and hard running is unreal. He reads the play, finds the ball, has no shortage of courage, and his marking ability is insane. Just needs to improve his disposal, especially on his opposite. If he gets that stuff together he'll be the complete package.
Runners-up: Cyril Rioli, Trent Cotchin, Garrick Ibbotson

Top 10 matches of the season

10. Round 11 Carlton 75 def. Port Adelaide 63 (AAMI Stadium)
Just one of Carlton's extraordinary come from behind victories, and one of Port Adelaide's stunning chokes. Down by 38 points late in the third term Carlton came home with a seven goal to none final term. Matthew Kreuzer was the star with three last quarter goals, and the Blues hit the front for the first time all day 32 minutes into the last quarter.

9. Round 16 St. Kilda 119 def. Hawthorn 89 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of common beliefs about the season only one match changed perception of the season more than this one. Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo (plus some Blake magic) swung the game in St. Kilda's favour in the second half. 12 goals to 3 in the second half rallied the Saints from 34 points down, and went a long way to establishing St. Kilda's top four hopes.

8. Round 12 Hawthorn 76 def. Adelaide 72 (AAMI Stadium)
Just a fantastic contest all night long. On a Saturday night in Adelaide we got one of the best, and most intense battles of the season. With Nathan Bock controlling Lance Franklin the Crows stayed in the match all night long. Luke Hodge's calmly composed goal to win the match deep into the fourth quarter was probably the goal of the year.

7. Round 2 Adelaide 85 def. Port Adelaide 79 (AAMI Stadium)
It's great watching a physical struggle between two teams that genuinely hate each other. The most physical and violent game of the year, and one of the best showdowns ever. Down to 18 fit men the Crows held off the Power dropping their foes to 0-3 on the season.

6. Round 1 Western Bulldogs 126 def. Adelaide 123 (Telstra Dome)
Incredible match, felt more like a fairytale than a game of football. In Brad Johnson's 300th match he kicked the final two goals to seemingly win the match. He wouldn't have the last word though, Nathan Bock had an opportunity to win the match after the siren but missed.

5. Round 11 Geelong 127 def. Kangaroos 114 (Telstra Dome)
In terms of match quality this was probably the best match of the season. The Kangaroos tested the Cats all night long in a free flowing attacking game. Gary Ablett and his Cats would have the last laugh though recording a well earned win at the Dome.

4. Round 1 Richmond 109 def. Carlton 79 (MCG)
The first match of the season was one of the best. The atmosphere at the 'G between two huge rivals was fantastic. And Chris Judd's debut was the most awaited event in the offseason, and he didn't disappoint. Matthew Richardson and Richmond prevailed though.

3. Round 17 Geelong 88 def. Hawthorn 77 (MCG)
The much hyped match was the one everyone was looking forward to all season. It didn't disappoint. The game was close all day and was a great prelude to the eventual Grand Final. Only an unusually erratic Luke Hodge prevented Hawthorn from victory.

2. Round 9 Collingwood 134 def. Geelong 48 (MCG)
Probably the most amazing result of the past ten years. If you'd told me Collingwood would beat Geelong I would have been surprised. But by 86 points? Do we even have a result to compare to this? It was an extraordinary couple of hours, it felt more like a dream than a match of football. Collingwood's tackling and pressure was the best football has ever seen in the best performance by a single team all season.

1. Round 22 Hawthorn 159 def. Carlton 81 (Telstra Dome)
More so an event than a game of football. The chase for 100 goals was probably the most fun event of the football season. It was fantastic to see the fans maul the ground. But things got really exciting in the second half when Fevola started getting close and the Blues were looking for him every single time. It was a refreshing experience, and a great game to watch.

Season 2008

2008-09-28T12:50:00.007+10:00

The day after the Grand Final seems as good a day as any to review the 2008 AFL season. First though, a note on yesterday's post. I think I may have been a little harsh in criticising the quality of yesterday's Grand Final. It might not have been a classic for the ages, but it was still a pretty good Grand Final - one of the better ones, at the very least. For me the Hawthorn-Geelong clash ranks above the 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007 Grand Finals, below the 2002, 2005 and 2006 matches, and on level terms with the 2001 Brisbane-Essendon clash (a similar match in fact). Anyway, here are my feelings on the 2008 season...

1. Hawthorn (20-5)
2008: Obviously a magnificent season for the Premiers. Perhaps the mark of a great team is not only its ability to win matches, but to genuinely affect the way the game is played. With their zone defense, which suffocated opponents into submission, the Hawks did just that. Their revolutionary zone was able to mask a few defensive deficiencies, the midfield led by skipper Sam Mitchell, consistent and underrated Brad Sewell, hard-nuts Jordan Lewis and Chance Bateman, and the still useful Shane Crawford was terrific all year. The forward line was the story though, with the mercurial Lance Franklin dominant all season, and well backed by the capable Jarryd Roughead and Mark Williams. Lost a few matches that they shouldn't have (Richmond, Kangaroos, St. Kilda) but come finals that didn't matter. The Hawks made the Dogs and Saints look very bad, and then did the same to the Cats. A brilliant season. Grade: A
Greatest strength: Zone defense. The biggest tactical story of the year. The way the Hawks employed this all season made it virtually impossible to advance the ball forward out of your backline. The way the Hawks suffocated the Bulldogs in the qualifying final with the zone was extraordinary.
Area that needs to be addressed: The Ruck. Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf is probably the weakest premiership ruck tandem for... ever?
MVP: Lance Franklin. I was tempted to go with the inspirational Luke Hodge, but Buddy is the Hawks most important player. His ability to win matches off his own boot is second to none. Showed something in the Grand Final too, despite being beaten on the day he still was able to produce two crucial goals. They say the mark of a great player is being able to get it done even when you're not at your best. That's exactly what Buddy did yesterday. The most exciting player in the league.
Outlook: Is there any reason to believe the Hawks won't be even better next year? That's the scary thing, this team is so young. The potential loss of Crawford won't hurt too much, the Hawks have the depth to cover the veteran. The most frightening prospect for opposition teams is that Lance Franklin is only going to get better. Assuming they aren't decimated by injuries this team is a virtual lock for top 2 next year.

2. Geelong (23-2)
2008: Dominated all year but came up short when it mattered. The degree to which Geelong choked away the 2008 premiership can not be understated. With Hawthorn on the ropes midway through the final term the game was theirs for the taking. Instead Hawthorn reeled off three of four goals in a row. A great team would never let that happen. The Cats were again dominant in the home and away season, destroying opponents on a weekly basis. They did slip a few times though, the loss to Collingwood and close escapes against Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos. Rarely were they matched though. The defensive unit was rock solid, the forward line creative and the midfield the best in the league. The Bartel-Ablett-Corey-Selwood quartet was brilliant. It's hard to beat a team when they have 4 of the 15 players in the league all playing in the same part of the ground. It was all for nothing though, as the Cats came up short in September. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Joel Selwood would be the best midfielder at nine different clubs. At Geelong he's the fourth best. That says it all.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line. Cam Mooney choking in the Grand Final just highlighted how shallow the Cats forward line is. With Steve Johnson beginning to play further up the ground, the Cats rely too much on Cam Mooney. Tom Lonergan is an average player at best, so Cam Mooney is the only reliable tall target in the forward line. The midfield makes the forward line look a lot better. Much like Quentin Lynch never would have kicked 60 goals in a season without Judd, Cousins and Kerr, it's hard to see Matty Stokes and Lonergan kicking 38 and 36 goals respectively at any other club. If this club wants to take the next step into the truly elite it needs another key forward.
MVP: Cam Mooney and Matthew Scarlett might be more important structuarly, but Gary Ablett is still what makes this team tick. Incredibly Ablett improved on his amazing 2007 season. An extraordinary talent, Ablett's core strength and low centre of gravity make him virtually impossible to tackle. His performance in a losing Grand Final only enhanced his reputation as the #1 player in the league.
Outlook: No reason to think the Cats won't be back next year on the final Saturday of September. Ablett (25 next year), Bartel (25), Corey (27), Chapman (27), Ling (28), Johnson (26), Rooke (27) and Enright (28) will all still be in their primes next year. Joel Selwood will be 21 next year. Guys like Harley (31), Ottens (29), Scarlett (30), Mooney (30) and Milburn (32) are all getting on but should be able to contribute next year. Beyond that though things are less certain.

3. Western Bulldogs (16-1-8)
2008: A mixed season for the Dogs. One loss through 15 rounds was extraordinary. The Dogs were playing a free-flowing wonderfully attacking style of game. They were impossible to slow down. The Round 16 thumping at the hands of Geelong was a reality check though, and that sent the Dogs in a spiral where they finished the season with just three wins from their final ten matches. In the finals their fortunes were mixed. The Hawks embarassed them but they bounced back strong and took care of Sydney. They then pushed Geelong almost to the brink, but choked away the match with countless missed shots in the third term. On the whole you have to consider the season a success, but it's a hollow statement given where they were at Round 15 as opposed to where they finished. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Run. When this team runs and carries going forward into attack they look as good as any team in the league. Their ability to win matches largely depends on the ability to create run and dash. Quality teams like Hawthorn and Geelong don't allow for it.
Area that needs to be addressed: Forward line is still a problem. The Dogs don't have a single tall forward that can be relied on to deliver week in week out. Scott Welsh (43 goals) and Mitch Hahn (34 goals) are OK stop-gap solutions, but come September neither delivered. With Johnson, Akermanis, Murphy and Giansiracusa the Dogs have a surplus of small forwards, but unlike the Eagles of 05-06 and the Cats of present day the midfield isn't good enough to cover the flaws of the forward 50.
MVP: Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney. I'm not sure his credentials are Brownlow worthy, but Cooney is definitely the best and most important player on this team. He adds class, dash and opportunism to the Bulldog midfield.
Outlook: If the way the season ended is any indication this Bulldog team has a while to go yet. They aren't going to win a flag with this list, they still need a key forward and another gun midfielder. Unless they get those things they're going to be a perennial 3-6 team.

4. St. Kilda (14-11)
2008: A strange season for the Saints. The fact that they only won three more matches than they lost is kind of telling. St. Kilda were once again heavy on talent, but low on heart. Not even Robert Harvey's retirement could propel them to greater emotional heights. The Saints lucked their way into fourth position, with an easy draw and a number of things falling their way. They won the matches they should have, and lost all the ones they shouldn't have. Against the big three of Geelong, Hawthorn and the Dogs they finished a combined 1-5. Add in Collingwood and Sydney, the other teams in the top six and the Saints still have a terrible 3-8 mark. The inability to beat quality sides obviously hurt St. Kilda in September. They played the two elite teams in September and were thoroughly smashed in each match-up. They eked out a win against a Collingwood team which would have lost to Melbourne on that night. The shining light of the season was their shock win over Hawthorn in Round 16. For one half of football everything the Saints have promised for half a decade now, they delivered. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Talent. The Saints win matches because of their unreal list of individual talents. Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Hayes, Dal Santo, Ball, Montagna, Fisher, Goddard, Maguire, Gram, the Clarke brothers. The sheer number of talented players on this team is astounding. Unfortunately the Saints play exactly like individuals, there's no cohesion or direction in the team. That's why they're on the outside looking in yet again.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed in the midfield. Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball are all quality players but none of them are going to win a 100m sprint. The Saints simply get run off their feet by too many teams.
MVP: Nick Riewoldt. Is any player more important to his team than Riewoldt is to the Saints? Without Riewoldt St. Kilda are probably a borderline bottom four team believe it or not. Saint Nick elevated the Saints to a higher level of play in the second half of the season almost singehandedly. His level of performance is largely indicative of his team's result. So not surprisingly Riewoldt played one brilliant final and two shockers, and the Saints won one final convincingly, and were thumped in the other two.
Outlook: It's hard to know what to expect from these Saints. They always promise so much yet fail to deliver. They tease their fans with the odd brilliant performance, only to come thudding back down to Earth soon after. Backing up the tremendous win over Hawthorn with a loss to lowly West Coast was not only indicative of the 2008 season, but of the club in general. The team is still relatively young. The core of Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Dal Santo, Fisher, Gram, Goddard, Montagna and Ball is still under 27. But the problem with this team has never been talent, it's been heart. There are no signs this team is about to turn it around, so it's hard to see them getting any closer to a Grand Final than they were this year.

5. Sydney (13-1-10)
2008: You have to think that this was the last year of relevance for the Swans for maybe a while. Considering that the Swans finished the season on a 4-7 run doesn't inspire much confidence. What is more disturbing though is this - in the 2008 home and away season the Swans beat one finals team. That's quite extraordinary. In the regular season Sydney finished 1-9 against teams that finished in the top eight. And the lone win came against at home in poor conditions against a struggling St. Kilda side. Sydney have reached the stage where they can still take care of weak sides, but are unable to raise their game against the big dogs of the league. The Swans played in five matches this year that were decided by two kicks or less and won four of them. This team had no business playing a home final let alone making the finals. The team is old, worn out and in dire need of some youth. They played a terrific final against the lowly Kangaroos, but were completely handled the following week by the Bulldogs. The season is difficult to judge, as they did a) make the finals, and b) won a final. The team simply wasn't very good, but they played well enough when they had to. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Tackling. The Swans list isn't that talented these days, but talent isn't something you require for tackling. Led by inspirational hard nut Brett Kirk, the Swans led the lead in tackling, as they are accustomed to doing these days. They might not win as often as they used to, but the Swans make sure you earn victory physically.
Area that needs to be addressed: Speed and youth. These things often come hand in hand. The conditions in the first final against the Roos masked Sydney's lack of speed, but they were exposed by the Dogs on the fresh MCG grass. Sydney simply can't keep up with teams.
MVP: Jarrad McVeigh was Sydney's best player this year, and may be for the next few years, but Adam Goodes is still far and away the most valuable. McVeigh is pushing for it, but Goodes is still the only special player on the Sydney team. He elevates them.
Outlook: Not good. The team is too old, and at best might be semi-relevant for one more year. Kieran Jack and Jarryd Moore are great young talents but beyond them the youth is thin. Maybe next year the Swans have a half chance at competing for the eight, but after that fans should prepare for a prolonged run in the cellars of the competition.

6. Collingwood (13-11)
2008: A strange season for the Pies. It's hard to know whether they overachieved or underachieved. I think they fall somewhere in between. They simply achieved. As has been the case for three years now, Collingwood shot themselves in the foot by failing to take care of lesser teams. Losses to Fremantle, Carlton (twice) and Essendon really killed the season. The 12-10 record didn't really represent where Collingwood stood in the competition. Collingwood didn't play in that many close matches, but the two matches they played in that went down to the wire (2 point loss to Brisbane, the Didak miss against the Kangaroos) they lost. Often a season is made by winning the matches that could go either way, this year Collingwood lost them and found themselves trying to win the flag from 8th spot. The stat that stands out about Collingwood's season though is this - against teams ranked in the top 7 Collingwood finished 6-3, against teams ranked 8th and below they finished 6-7. In finals the Pies were a mixed bag. They played a pretty good match against Adelaide, before playing their worst match of the season against St. Kilda the following week. The losses of Buckley, Licuria and Clement from last season, and the absences of Rocca, Rusling and then later on Didak and Shaw hurt Collingwood a lot. Considering injuries and the Didak fiasco, Collingwood did pretty well to win a final. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Game-changing players. An odd strength to have, but the Pies team is almost built upon the ability of Dale Thomas, Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Alan Didak to change matches. These four guys are what make Collingwood special. They're skillful, clever and creative. Hopefully all four are back next year.
Area that needs to be addressed: THE RUCK. I'm almost resigned to the fact that Collingwood will never ever have a half decent ruckman. The stats speak for themselves. Since 1999 Collingwood's averages in hitouts per game amongst the league have ranked like this - 14th, 16th, 16th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 16th, 15th, 12th, 13th. It's as astounding as it is depressing. Compare that to this, since 2001 the premiership team has ranked - 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and this year 9th. The stats don't lie, unless you have Buddy Franklin you need a good ruckman to win the premiership. Josh Fraser, Chris Bryan and Cameron Wood don't inspire much confidence.
MVP: Travis Cloke might be more important, but this year Paul Medhurst was the most valuable. Statistically Medhurst was brilliant, 16 disposals 8 marks and 2 goals a game doesn't grow on trees. It went beyond the statistics. It was around the Essendon game (the one we lost) where Medhurst officially made the leap. As a fan you just got the sense that everytime he got the ball he was going to do something special with it. After 11 years of watching Collingwood play the only other player I developed this sense with was Buckley. And that's the greatest compliment I can give any Collingwood player.
Outlook: Clouded. It's difficult to get a handle on this team. I can rationalise them finishing next year anywhere between 3rd and 13th. The case to be made for them states that O'Brien, Brown, Goldsack and Maxwell all get better, and the return of Heath Shaw with something to prove shores up the defense. Rocca, Rusling and Reid all return to give us a forward line of Cloke, Rocca and the choice of Reid/Rusling/Dawes to go alongside Paul Medhurst and John Anthony. The case against says that Medhurst and Davis come back down to Earth, Anthony Rocca's corpse doesn't do anything, Travis will never deliver, the Pies lack a gun midfielder and competent ruckman, and we still don't have anyone to stop the Franklins, Fevolas and Riewoldts of the world. The question hinges on Ben Cousins. If we get him, I like us as a top four team. If we don't we're destined to spend the fourth year running as a bottom half of the eight side.

7. Adelaide (13-10)
2008: Same old, same old really. Finished inexplicably high on the ladder after 22 rounds but failed to deliver in finals. My theory is this - Adelaide is a well-oiled machine that overachieves every home and away season because of their coach. They win because of tactics, structure and strategy. When it comes to finals though, you need a depth of talent and a lot of heart. Adelaide don't have that. The telling stat is this - in Neil Craig's tenure Adelaide have come from behind at three quarter time to win a match once. That's incredible. The Crows just don't look like a tough team. They got as close as 8 or 9 points in the last quarter of the final against Collingwood but I was never really that worried. Science and structure are no substitute for a killer instinct. Grade: B
Greatest strength: Strategy and discipline. The Crows don't take nights off. They always come to play, and if their is a realistic shot of winning they'll do it or come pretty close to it. The Crows win matches that they should, they finished 10-3 against the bottom eight this year.
Greatest weakness: Talent. Being well-oiled and ready to play every night can only get you so far. You need a depth of talent all over the field. You look at Adelaide's list and it's no wonder they haven't won a final in three years. The Crows have four genuinely quality players - Scott Thompson, Brett Burton, Jason Porplyzia and Andrew McLeod. Porplyzia couldn't stay healthy and Burton is a perennial injury concern. McLeod is 32 years old. Scott Thompson made a leap of sorts this year, but he can still be too easily shut out of matches and doesn't perform in big games.
MVP: I actually think it's Andrew McLeod. He's the heart and soul of the team, he provides drive and class of the half back line. Until Scott Thompson steps up the MVP is McLeod's.
Outlook: It's too hard to tell with these Crows. If Burton and Porplyzia are healthy for next year, and the draw favours them they'll have a crack at the eight again. If not, then they're in trouble.

8. Kangaroos (12-1-10)
2008: Wow, what happened? Entering round 21 the Kangaroos were believed to be the second best team in the competition. After they lost, but didn't disgrace themselves, against Geelong they were still believed to be as good a contender as anyone. All they had to do was take care of lowly Port Adelaide in Melbourne and they had fourth spot. Incredibly they lost, and they didn't just lose - they were smashed. All of a sudden they found themselves in 7th spot, confidence shattered into a million pieces and a trip to Sydney and poor conditions ahead. They played a terrible final and were one and done. So much can change in three weeks. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Discipline and focus. Like Adelaide the Kangaroos play hard every week. They tackle hard and do all the small things. Rarely do they lose matches they should win (unless fourth spot and the double chance is on the line).
Greatest weakness: Midfield depth. There isn't much on offer after Brent Harvey. Adam Simpson will be 33 next year, Brady Rawlings is a negator, Daniel Wells might be trade bait and Jess Sinclair is nothing but a poor man's Nick Dal Santo.
MVP: Does it even need to be said? Brent Harvey is the reason the Kangaroos are even relevant. He's a mercurial talent, as well as the guy that makes this team tick.
Outlook: People write off the Kangaroos every year. Already they're something like 14th favourite to win the flag next year. Shannon Grant is done, and Adam Simpson, Jess Sinclair, Corey Jones and even Brent Harvey won't be far behind. The team is surprisingly young though, although the youth doesn't exactly wow anyone. If Hale and Petrie can perform like they did this year in 2009 then the Roos are a chance, but as of now I don't have them in the finals.

9. Richmond (11-1-10)
2008: I think the Ninthmond Tigers has a better ring to it. Luckily this year the heartbreak wasn't so painful for the Tiger supporters - they were never really in it. The team took massive strides this year, and for a unit that was a consensus bottom two pick, they showed up everyone. They showed the future by finishing the season an astounding 8-3. In spite of all this I feel like the positive win-loss record is a bit misleading. I still can't really see how this team did so well. When you look closer the team really wasn't that good. On that 8-3 run seven of the teams they beat were bottom eight sides. Against top eight teams the Tigers were 1-1-9, they still have a while to go. Grade: B+
Greatest strength: Swagger. You have to like the way this team plays. In close matches they genuinely know what they're doing. The wins over Carlton in the first match of the season, Essendon, Brisbane and Port Adelaide at AAMI were inspirational.
Area that needs to be addressed: The forward line is going to be a problem very soon. By next season Matthew Richardson will be 34. Jack Riewoldt is too thin, and no one else really stands out as a forward line option.
MVP: Call me the devil but what the hell - Joel Bowden. The case for Matthew Richardson is obvious, but the older Bowden's case is just as strong. For someone that was dropped early in the year Joel Bowden had a remarkable season. The 30 year old defender won three matches in the dying seconds. The courageous mark back with the flight to earn victory against Port Adelaide, the composed killing of the clock against Essendon, and the super clutch goal against Brisbane to keep the season alive. Richardson may have been better, but you can't say Bowden wasn't valuable.
Outlook: Obviously bright. The youth is fantastic. Deledio and Foley are stars and Cotchin (if he isn't already) will be there soon. This still isn't a finals side though. Richardson is in for a regression and Nathan Brown isn't getting any younger. I'm guessing a slight decline in wins next year and finals the year after.

10. Brisbane (10-12)
2008: What a collapse. After being touted as a top four team the Lions finished the year 3-8 and somehow fell behind Richmond. The Lions lost three matches (Melbourne, Kangaroos, Carlton) where they were in a position where they seemingly couldn't lose. Simply put they choked. This Lions team is possibly the biggest anomaly in the AFL. Are they a good team? Last year there was about a five week patch towards the end of the season where they were playing better football than any team in the league. This year they started the season at 7-3 and were well on their way. Once again it all turned to crap. The forward line is completely reliant on Brown and Bradshaw, there's no halfway competent third option. The midfield is good, but the defense is suspect. Daniel Merrett doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence as a number one key defender. The Lions played some great footy this year but too often didn't show up, and when push came to shove they were left wincing in the corner. Grade: C
Greatest strength: The midfield. The obvious option is the Bradshaw/Brown tandem, but I question Bradshaw's quality and the midfield really is fantastic. Old hands Simon Black, Luke Power and rejuvenated Travis Johnstone along with young guns Michael Rischitelli and Brad Dalziell make this unit formiddible at the feet of Jamie Charman.
Greatest weakness: Performance in the clutch. The team simply doesn't know what to do in clutch situations. They don't manage the clock or control tempo. That's why they didn't play finals for the fourth year running.
MVP: J. Brown is the obvious answer, but the Brownlow medal runner-up deserves some love. I don't think people really appreciate exactly how good Simon Black is. There's a reason he finished runner up this year and won the medal a few years back. The way he gets himself to every stoppage and wins the ball at the clinches is amazing. My defining memory of Black is from last year in a classic match against Sydney. With the season on the line and down by a goal with about 30 seconds to go the Swans were suffocating the stoppages. Black was able to win the ball cleanly, run along the boundary line and deliver a desperate handball to Luke Power as his legs fell from beneath him. Power delivered to Jonathan Brown who slotted the goal to keep the season alive. That passage was so indicative of Simon Black. The hard worker and matchwinner whose work so often goes unnoticed. Not by the umpires though, and definitely not by me.
Outlook: Pretty good I think. Black and Power are 29 and 28 respectively so they'll have 2-3 years left of quality football and probably more. Newly re-signed skipper Jonathan Brown is just 26, and the youth looks very good. Taking over from Leigh Matthews is no easy gig, but I think a breath of fresh air might be good for this team. I fully expect them to play finals next year.

11. Carlton (10-12)
2008: A rollercoaster year for the Blues and a return to relevance. This team scares me. They piss me off just as much. I hate the fact that they've tanked their way into Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer, and now seem set for years. After losing their first three matches the Blues finished the season 10-9 and look in great shape for the future. The midfield is frightening. Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Carrazo, Scotland? C'mon. Seems like Judd left Kerr and Cousins for two guys that are going to be as good as them. All season the Blues played with a genuine swagger and belief. They believed they were good enough to win matches and they ended up doing just that. The come from behind wins interstate over Port Adelaide and Brisbane were unreal. Unlike Richmond, Carlton actually managed to compete against some half-decent teams. The Blues finished just 3-5 against teams in the top six, and were very unlucky not to snatch a win over Sydney. The year was a huge success for Carlton, and success is something this team is only going to see more of. Grade: A-
Greatest strength: Midfield. Judd and Murphy are superstars, Bryce Gibbs will be, Nick Stevens is an established gun, and Heath Scotland and Carrazo are very solid. It's a scary unit.
Area that needs to be addressed: Aside from getting a Robin to Fevola's Batman, the Blues need a ruckman. They ranked 16th in hitouts this season and need some stop-gap to put the ball to Judd, Murphy and co's advantage while Kreuzer develops.
MVP: Chris Judd. He provides leadership, hardness and intelligence to the football club. Fully expect him to regain his title as best player in the league once healthy.
Outlook: Very bright. If the Blues can get say Jeff White and someone else steps up in the forward line there is no reason they can't be playing finals next year. In 2010 and beyond though, that's where they'll be really dangerous.

12. Essendon (8-14)
2008: They showed the future in 2008 but more often than not at the cost of the present. They play an exciting free-flowing brand of footy, but it lacks accountability and pressure. Hopefully that will improve in time. The list is young and explosive. Reimers, Jetta, Davey and Houli are all exciting talents. Watson, Stanton, Monfries and Welsh will hold down spots for years. This year was largely a development year though. The Dons simply weren't good enough to play well enough over 22 rounds to be relevant. The fact that 12 of their 14 losses came amidst losing streaks is indicative of the inexperienced list. The season was not lost though, the Dons still showed that they have a bright future. Grade: B-
Greatest strength: Exciting young talent. Similar to Collingwood, Essendon have a number of players that can simply break games open. Houli, Jetta, Reimers and Davey (assuming he's the same when he returns) can all turn matches with their unreal talents.
Area that needs to be addressed: Accountability. The Dons didn't man up all year and it hurt them. No team conceded more goals. This one's on Matthew Knights.
MVP: Matthew Lloyd. This year he was the barometer. 62 goals this season was a remarkable effort from the skipper. Lloyd kicked 33 goals in 8 Bomber wins. He kicked 29 in 14 losses. When Lloyd fired so did Essendon.
Outlook: Mixed. Next year is no sure thing. Lloyd and Lucas will be 31 and Fletcher will be 34. We've seen the best of them. That said the youth will step up again, and McVeigh and Hille will still be in their prime. 10 wins is the next step.

13. Port Adelaide (7-15)
2008: Were much better than their record indicated. Like Brisbane and Fremantle last year's runners-up simply couldn't get over the line in close games. In games decided by 20 points or less the Power were 1-8. Contrast that to last year when the Power were 8-2 in those games. The team was largely unchanged from the Grand Final side of last year. Port simply weren't a very good team last year. Everything fell their way. They won matches against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide late in the season that they simply shouldn't have. In finals they snuck over the line against an injury-decimated West Coast and a mediocre Kangaroos side. This year's results were more indicative of the quality of the side than last year's. That said Port Adelaide are much better than a 7 win team. They should have won 10-11 matches this year. The youth in the team is exciting, and they still have a number of gun players. Last year everything went right, this year everything went wrong. They've been at both extremes, but that's football. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. The Power ranked #1 in hitouts this year. Port have always been blessed with elite ruckman, with Matthew Primus, Brendon Lade and Dean Brogan the Power have incredibly ranked in the top half of the league in hitouts ever since their inception.
Area that needs to be addressed: Key position players. Port lack a key defender or key forward. The forward line is held down by the smaller Brett Ebert and Daniel Motlop. These guys are terrific players but shouldn't be the focal point of any forward line. Tredrea's corpse needs to be laid to rest, and the Westhoffs are too thin. In defense Toby Thurstans doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Chad Cornes might need to be established at one end next year.
MVP: Hard to call. Chad Cornes is the most important, his brother is the most consistent, but its Shaun Burgoyne that elevates them to another level. Burgoyne doesn't get his fair due, he's one of the elite players in the league. A dominant force at the clearances, Burgoyne's performance against Collingwood in Round 20 (33 disposals 18 clearances) was astounding.
Outlook: I fully expect Port Adelaide to be back in finals next year. There's too much talent in this team. A full season of Chad Cornes and Shaun Burgoyne and the continued development of young players, combined with improved results in close games will be enough for a finals spot.

14. Fremantle (6-16)
2008: One of the most bizarre seasons you'll ever see. How a team can have a percentage of 94 and lose 16 games is beyond me. The Dockers simply failed in every possible close situation. Losing five games in a row when leading at three quarter time is astounding. In reality Freo were probably as good or better than the higher placed Carlton/Richmond/Essendon trio. It's harsh to pin it on one man, but if Matthew Pavlich could kick straight Fremantle definitely would have had two more wins, and possibly four. The youth was promising on the year though, Rhys Palmer is a gun and Garrick Ibbotson will be a 200 game player. Grade: D+
Greatest strength: Ruck. Aaron Sandilands gives his team an advantage that no other team has.
Area that needs to be addressed: Taking advantage of the ruck. Freo has this advantage that other teams (hmmmm Collingwood?) would kill for. Sandilands is winning the ruck every week yet Fremantle were unable to capitalise on it. They need a better stoppage structure and more intelligence from the midfielders.
MVP: Matthew Pavlich. No brainer. The Captain failed in clutch situations this year, but excelled in every other situation. Still the barometer of the club and one of the ten best players in the league.
Outlook: A healthy Paul Haselby, the continued improvement of the youngsters and Fremantle can push for finals next year. I think the team is too young though, and the mental fragility won't just go away. They'll come close next year but they'll spend a third consecutive September on the outisde looking in.

15. West Coast (4-18)
2008: How far the mighty have fallen. I don't think a dynasty has ever ended so quickly. And so violently. The Eagles simply imploded without superstars Chris Judd and Ben Cousins. The team lacked leadership, direction and health all season long. They weren't quite as bad as their record reflected, injuries hurt them more than any other team, but they were still horrible. Veterans looked terrible and the youth showed their inexperience. They played a handful of decent matches, but too often they simply didn't show up for matches. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the loss at home to Geelong was the single worst performance I have seen from and team in any code of sport. Grade: E
Greatest strength: Ummm? I guess it's the ruck. Dean Cox is still the pre-eminent ruckman in the league and he makes the Eagles competitive in stoppages at the very least.
Area that needs to be addressed: Leadership. The void left by Judd and Cousins can not be understated. Usually steady hands Darren Glass and Tyson Stenglein had years to forget, and leader Adam Hunter couldn't get on the field.
MVP: Clearly Dean Cox. In a year when the Eagles looked like rubbish Cox only enhanced his reptuation as one of the best players, and best blokes in the competition.
Outlook: The youth is solid and the veterans (Embley, Stenglein, Glass, Hunter, Wirrpanda) should bounce back. The middle-band of players in their prime is still pretty good. Cox, Kerr, Priddis, Selwood, Rosa, Waters, Lynch, Hansen and LeCras is a pretty good group of players. It'd be extraordinary if they bounced back to play finals next year, but with some health and focus it's not out of the question. Still though, smart money is on a bottom four finish.

16. Melbourne (3-19)
2008: One of the most inept seasons of all time. You don't wind up with a percentage of 62 easily. You have to earn that. And the Demons did. It was one of the worst ever teams you'll ever see. The veterans went down early, the youth didn't impress a lot and the team played sloppy football all season. I don't think there's anything positive to take out of the season. Grade: E-
Greatest strength: ...
Area that needs to be addressed: Getting good players. Seriously, if you were building a finals team from the ground up who would you take from the Melbourne team? Cameron Bruce and Brock McLean probably. Nathan Jones might have a shot at the bench.
MVP: Cameron Bruce I guess. The classy midfielder quietly pieced together one of his finest seasons.
Outlook: They'll be competitive... in 2013.

Darkly dreaming slightly underwhelming Dexter

2008-09-28T12:37:00.004+10:00

I finished the second season of Dexter a couple of days ago and I was a little disappointed. Don't get me wrong, it was still an excellent season of television, but it lacked the thrilling storyline of the first season. The whole Lila plot thread started off as interesting but lost its way after three or four episodes. I thought it was pretty weak how she ultimately became the central character in the season's finale. I'm also sad to see Sergeant Doakes go, next to Dexter he was probably my favourite character.

The evolution of Dexter has been interesting to watch. As the series has progressed he's become more and more human, and altruistic too. The completely self-absorbed character from the Pilot is now a mere memory. Michael C. Hall is just perfect in the title role. It's one of those performances where it's impossible to envision anyone else in the role. He makes it his own.

Season two was a slight disappointment, but it still had me watching 4 episodes at a time. Either way, I'm dying to get to season three.

Thoughts on the 2008 Grand Final

2008-09-27T23:11:00.003+10:00

Some random thoughts on the Grand Final

Geelong choked away the match. Any talk of comparing them to the great teams of the past 25 years is now mute. 42 wins from 44 matches means nothing, as we stand history remembers the 97-98 Adelaide Crows as a superior team than these Cats.
I've been saying it ever since the Cats did their best at choking away the preliminary final last year - in huge pressure situations I doubt their mental fortitude. The past two years the Cats have played four matches in the last fortnight in September - they've choked in three of them.
A number of Geelong players are going to be haunted by that match for a long time. Matty Stokes and James Kelly did nothing. Travis Varcoe did little, and his hesitation on one play in the final term was very costly. Tom Harley may have been injured, but he was also undisciplined. Didn't have a good day. In one of the Cats lowest moments Brad Ottens missed without any pressure on him from 20m directly in front with open teammates in the goalsquare.
The two key figures for the Cats though aren't hard to point out - Cam Mooney and Harry Taylor. Cam Mooney may have lost this match for Geelong off his own boot. That miss from four metres out at the half time siren would have shook Geelong's confidence immensely going into the break. He then channeled some '05 Michael O'Loughlin and missed two imminently gettable set shots in the second half. The less obvious culprit was Harry Taylor. Taylor did a phenomenal job on Nick Riewoldt earlier in the finals series, but that will count for zero as he coughed up the Grand Final with one mistake. The ghost of Rhyce Shaw hovered near, when in the third quarter Taylor was inside defensive 50, had no clue what he was doing, lost control of the ball in a non-pressure situation and then Stuart Dew pounced and the scoreboard started to look bad for Geelong.
Let it be known that this was not a very good match of football. Neither team really looked like they wanted to win, the skills weren't as good as you would expect, and Buddy didn't have an impact. The saving grace though was the brute physicality of the contest. Contest really is the apt word, given the way the match was played a boxing ring might have been a more fitting venue to decide the victor than the open plains of the MCG.
Gary Ablett took an absolute hammering. The Hawks tried the same tactic with Brent Harvey last year in the finals and it didn't work. They lost focus. Not so this time, Ablett was abused all day but the Hawks still managed to stay on task. In spite of this, Ablett played a magnificent match. He was by far Geelong's best, but his inability to kick that goal he should have about halfway through the last term was costly.
Buddy was a huge disappointment. Scarlett laid the opening blow with a bump that left Franklin down early, and Scarlett maintained the advantage all day. In one on one's Scarlett won about 90% of the time. Again, in spite of this, Franklin came up huge with that goal to match Ablett in the third term, and then the game-breaker midway through the last.
What on Earth happened to Sam Mitchell? He had no impact in the first half, and seemingly lost it mentally by decking Ablett high twice. It's a good thing Mitchell won today, because he might not have much say in the first month or two of the 2009 campaign. Lucky he kicked that goal in the last quarter.
The Norm Smith vote and the placing of Shane Crawford among the best is a joke. Crawford played horribly. Sure he got like 25 disposals, but that's not a good thing when you consider the way he was disposing of it. On at least 6 occasions Crawford turned the ball over under no pressure at all. Yeah, it's a great story, but the refusal to acknowledge his poor performance is just plain denial.
Didn't like the choice of Luke Hodge as Norm Smith medallist. I think it's more on the back of his performances in the preceding finals than what he did today. Yes, he was solid all day, but he gave away a goal and didn't have the impact he had in earlier September matches. My Norm Smith would go to Stuart Dew. Dew almost singlehandedly broke open the game in that decisive third term. He kicked two ripper goals, and set up another with sheer determination. A great performance.
Cyril Rioli elevated his status today from classy gun to superstar. His efforts to win a 2-on-1 in the third term were inspirational, and he slotted a pressure set shot. Hats off to the kid, he's a champ.
Don't give too much credit to the Hawks. On the whole the Cats were the better team. They were the better team for the entire match except for that five minute Hawthorn burst in the 3rd term. The Cats completely dominated the second quarter, and as to how the Hawks were within four goals, let alone leading at halftime is astounding. That said, Hawthorn stepped up in the premiership quarter, mentally they were tougher than the Cats, and they stepped up when they needed to. And that's why they're the 2008 premiers and the Cats are not.

Votes

8 - Stuart Dew (Hawthorn)
8 - Gary Ablett (Geelong)
7 - Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
7 - Brad Sewell (Hawthorn)
7 - Matthew Scarlett (Geelong)

The worst finals series ever

2008-09-27T22:47:00.002+10:00

The 2008 AFL Finals series came to a close today, and before talking about the hyped match between the Hawks and Cats I want to talk about the disappointment that the finals series was in general. Finals are supposed to be the best matches of the season. Ferocious, intense, desperate. What we want to see more than anything though (unless your a fan of the team playing) is a close match. There's nothing more thrilling than a close game in September.

Under the new finals system there are 9 finals to be played. 2 elimination, 2 qualifying, 2 semi-finals, 2 prelims and the Grand Final. Obviously not all of these matches are going to be close, but there's a realistic hope that 3 or 4 of these matches would have the result in doubt heading into the last ten minutes. This year, not one final was in doubt with ten minutes to play. Not one. On the scoreboard the closest match was in fact the Grand Final - the final margin was 26 points. In reality the closest match was the Collingwood Adelaide clash, but the Pies kicked clear midway through the final term to secure the 31 point win.

Generally each year in the finals we get a handful of close games, and one or two genuine classic matches. Last year there were three finals decided by less than a kick plus another one that went to extra time. Hawthorn-Adelaide (Buddy with the matchwinner), Collingwood-West Coast (extra time, and perhaps the most excruciating final minute of fourth quarter in the history of football), Geelong-Collingwood (a nailbiter for the ages in front of 98, 000 people at the 'G). All these were classic matches. 2006 - two finals decided by a point, and another two decided by less than three goals. Both Sydney-West Coast matches were instant classics. 2005 - five games decided by 16 points or less, again both Sydney-West Coast matches were classics, and then of course there's the Nick Davis match against Geelong. 2004 saw four finals decided by ten points or less, and the Port Adelaide-St. Kilda preliminary final was one of the best finals of the past decade.

Every year we get a number of September matches that we'll remember long after we've seen them. That's the thrill of finals footy. This year we got none.

NFL week 4 predictions

2008-09-26T13:52:00.003+10:00

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3)
Well, one team has to win. Everyone expected these teams to under-perform this year, but no one would have predicted a combined 0-6 record heading into this game. This game should be an offensive explosion, 6 or 7 TD's is more than likely. The Browns really have shown nothing this year. Losing to the Flacco-led Ravens by three scores is something to be ashamed of. Cinci on the other hand are at least showing flashes of form. They played hard last week in Jersey, and Carson Palmer looked much better. Home field and the better QB gives the edge to the Bengals. Cincinnati 35 Cleveland 31

Minnesota (1-2) at Tennessee (3-0)
The Titans are looking like the best team in the AFC. A big test comes from the unproved Vikings this week at home. The Vikings offense is one-dimensional, and is averaging just 18 points a game. Combine that with the fact that the Titans have given up just 29 points in three matches, and it doesn't bode well for the Vikes. Neither running game is going anywhere, so the game is going to be one in the air you suspect. Can't comment on who the better of Kerry Collins and Gus Frerotte is, but the Titans pass defense is a lot better than Minnesota's, and that should be the telling edge. Tennessee 19 Minnesota 13

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3)
It's never good when one of the top 5 teams in the league goes against one of the bottom 5. The Broncos defense might not be the best, but it's not going to matter against the lowly Chiefs. A good time to own Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall on your fantasy team. Denver 39 Kansas City 21

San Francisco (2-1) at New Orleans (1-2)
The Saints have been on the end of some tough luck lately, they could very easily be 3-0. Combine that with the fact that they've lost their two most dangerous receivers, and the Big Easy is going to be in Big Trouble. Should be an offensive battle, and considering the injuries I think the offenses are a wash, but the 49ers D is much better. Will be tight, but I'm already hopping on the JT bandwagon. San Francisco 31 New Orleans 27

Arizona (2-1) at NY Jets (2-1)
The bright shiny mood in New York is well and truly gone. They were lucky to edge the lowly Dolphins, were thoroughly out-coached by the not-so-good Patriots, and then were embarassed on national TV by the Chargers. It's a bit early in the season, but the fact is this - Tennessee, Indy, Jacksonville, Denver and San Diego are all better teams than the Jets. Those teams will swallow up the wild cards, so the Jets have to win their division to get to the postseason. Falling into a 1-3 hole when you have to deal with the 3-0 Bills and the 2-1 Patriots (who will get better) is as good as death. A must win for the Jets, and I think Favre breaks loose the shackles and leads NY to a momentum building victory. NY Jets 27 Arizona 24

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Important clash for the NFC. The way I see it Dallas and Philly are in their own tier in the NFC. Then the next tier down has a lot of teams like New York, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Tampa and maybe Chicago. This match will go a long way to deciding which of these teams is the real deal. It would be a huge win for the Packers, to overcome their injuries to the secondary and bounce back from their defeat last week to the Cowboys. But with Ryan Grant still banged up, I think the Bucs can focus on shutting down the pass and come up with the win. Tampa Bay 24 Green Bay 17

Atlanta (2-1) at Carolina (2-1)
The Panthers should take care of business this week. Last week I think they were just beaten by a decent team at home that absolutely had to win. Another week with Steve Smith in the offense, and I think the Stewart/Williams combo runs riot on the porous Atlanta defense. Carolina 28 Atlanta 13

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2)
Another must win for the Jags. The Texans have looked very ordinary so far, and opening the season with three road games (due to Ike) is going to kill them. That said the Texans have had the goods over Jacksonville lately, and if they can pull out a win they'll be in pretty good shape for the rest of the season (8 of the last 13 games at home, where they are tough to beat). Easier said than done though, I think Jones and MJD build on last week and take care of business. Jacksonville 27 Houston 17

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2) LOCK OF THE WEEK
The Chargers looked really good on Monday night. This could be ugly. San Diego 41 Oakland 10

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3)
Potential danger game for the Bills. On the road against a lowly team that isn't as bad as its hyped to be filled with underachieving players. I think the Rams come close, but Trent Edwards comes up big for the Bills down the stretch. Buffalo 30 St. Louis 27

Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0)
Statement game here for the Cowboys. The Redskins aren't a good team, and they've been lucky to eke out those two wins. I think this is an embarassment for the Skins. Dallas 44 Washington 20

Philadelphia (2-1) at Chicago (1-2) UPSET OF THE WEEK
Huge game here for the Bears. It's only Week 4 but this is a huge game for the shape of their season really. If they lose three games on the trot at home they aren't going to be in good shape for the rest of the year. With the Eagles' two key players, McNabb and Westbrook, both banged up I think the Bears come through at home. Chicago 24 Philadelphia 13

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1)
Big game for Baltimore's playoff aspirations. I still think they're pretenders. They beat a lowly Bengals team and a Cleveland team with zero confidence. Joe Flacco hasn't really impressed, and as good as the defense is the offense needs to function and I don't think it will. McGahee is under an injury cloud, and Pittsburgh are out to prove a point. That said, I think that Pittsburgh offense is so banged up (terrible offensive line, no Willie Parker, Big Ben hurting) that the Ravens hammer them into submission. Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 14

Killing time with Dexter

2008-09-25T20:51:00.003+10:00

I've only seen 17 episodes of Dexter so far but I'm already convinced that it's the best show on television and one of the ten best shows of the past decade. The show is such a great mix of drama, dry comedy and surprisingly emotion. On the surface Dexter might be hard to empathise with, because of his lack of emotion, but you find yourself rooting for him pretty quickly. The black script is fantastic. The comedy is low-key and understated but it produces some laughs. The acting across the table is terrific. Michael C. Hall really is amazing as Dexter Morgan. He's got the role down pat. Everything from the uncomfortable look he has, the raised shoulders, even the way he eats. Maybe I'm overanalysing but everything about his character rings true.

I stayed up until 4am a couple nights ago finishing off the first season of Dexter. I loved the Ice Truck Killer arc, although I did pick the shock 'twist' around episode 8 or whatever. It's not normal for someone to talk that in depth about a love of limbs. The show isn't perfect though. Deb has got to be one of the 25 most annoying characters in TV history. Even when Dexter has just found out that his biological father has just died she has a massive go at him. I'm not a fan of the Ice Truck Killer's ethics, but I would have easily turned a blind eye had he taken care of Deb.

The start of the second season was a little underwhelming, I must admit. Everything seems like it's just building towards something greater, not much is going on right now. One surprising thing has been the evolution of Rita's bitchyness. She's become a real unpleasant person, and you can't help but hope that Dex ends up with fresh new Lyla, who by the way is a great addition to the show. I'm excited for the season on a whole though, and just really excited for the show in general. God's speed Dexter.

On the other side of TV, last night's episode of Fringe was really disappointing. The first episode was fantastic but last night was just dreadful. It was kind of funny the irony of how the storyline about aging and dying unnaturally quickly reflected my interest in the show in general. That's a bit harsh though. Given the strength of the Pilot I've already locked myself in for the first 5 or 6 episodes at least, but beyond that no promises.

Boston Legal remains consistent as ever, Wednesday night's episode a solid contribution to the Boston Legal canon. The problem, and the only real one, with the show is it's inability to produce really good episodes. There's probably only about two or three genuinely fantastic episodes each season (one of season 4's came a week ago). Still though, no complaints from me this is still a brilliant show.

The NBA, just a month away

2008-09-23T19:23:00.002+10:00

September is the greatest month in sports lets face it. The AFL finals series, the NFL and College football get started, the tennis US Open is in full swing and the MLB playoff hunt intensifies then comes to a close. After that though we have the start of the NHL (which I'm going to make an effort to follow) and the NBA in October. I love the NBA. The NBA finals series between Boston and LA was just a really great sporting event, and left me wanting a fair bit more. This might seem a bit early, but much like my new NFL habit, I'm going to evaluate the chances of each team. Here we go...

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (59 wins)
Got to pay respect to the defending champs. The loss of Posey hurts, as does the aging of the Big Three. I think that the continued improvement of Rondo and Perkins (who looked really good in the playoffs) counters the inevitable decline of the Big Three. For this year at least.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (57 wins)
I think this is the year that Cleveland really elevate themselves to that next tier. LeBron takes further steps to entering the realm of Jordon, and the Mo Williams signing helps this team a lot.
3. Toronto Raptors (49 wins)
I think the Jermaine O'Neal signing works wonders for this team. O'Neal and Bosh in the front court with Calderon running the offense is good for a first round home series in the playoffs. The major drawback of the Raptors is that they don't have any reliable scoring guards. I'm not rapped about the Raptors, but such is the weakness of the East I think this is where they might end up.
4. Orlando Magic (48 wins)
The way the Magic departed from the playoffs and the way Dwight Howard struggled has to be concerning for people in Orlando. They haven't made many strides to improve this offseason either. Point guard is still a worry, but the Magic will earn home court advantage and take the division purely on weight of talent.
5. Detroit Pistons (46 wins)
I think this is the year that the Pistons mini-dynasty begins to end. They'll die a slow death though. There's quality all over the roster, but I'm not sure this team has enough youth or desire to get back to the top of the East.
6. Philadelphia 76ers (43 wins)
I see the Sixers being one of the disappointments of the season. All this talk of them joining the elite could very well go to their heads. This was a workmanlike team that played well above their heads all season. Now that the media says they're good, and with the expectation of winning I think they come back down to Earth.
7. Washington (42 wins)
The perennial 6th-8th Washington Wizards ladies and gentlemen. It must be a bleak existence for Wizards fans. The absolute ceiling of this team is a second round exit. That's the best possible outcome. Sadly enough I don't think Gilbert Arenas' absence in the first month hurts this team that much.
8. Milwaukee (41 wins)
Everyone is talking about the improved East but I don't really buy it. I think Milwaukee will be an average team fighting for .500 all season, but I think they'll make the playoffs in the still lowly East. You can do worse than a Ridnour, Redd, Richardson, Villanueva and Bogut in your starting lineup. There's three quality guys there. Ramon Sessions is fascinating too off the bench.

9. Atlanta (39 wins)
Loved the heart this team showed against the Celtics. Joe Johnson has established himself as a franchise guy, Josh Smith is insanely talented, Al Horford will improve some more and Mike Bibby should provide some stability at point. The problem will be depth.
10. Chicago (37 wins)
I think the Bulls regain their swagger from a couple of years ago. I think Rose has a decent season, and overall the team plays harder than they did last year. They'll be a good hustle team all year, but they have zero frontcourt and that'll stop them from reaching the playoffs.
11. Miami (35 wins)
I don't buy the Miami hype. Yeah, there's Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley. One proven superstar then a number three intangibles guy and a rookie who doesn't play defense. This team has zero depth. The team is entirely dependent on one player, and an injury-prone player at that. If Wade goes down the Heat are a 15 win team again.
12. New York (32 wins)
The Knicks will be improved. I think D'Antoni begins to harness some of the talent of this team. This team has been a solid offensive and terrible defensive team for a while now, and I think D'Antoni takes that and runs with it. Guys like Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford will thrive in this system.
13. Indiana Pacers (31 wins)
Some are talking about the Pacers as a potential playoff team. I really don't see it. I mean, they don't have a system and no real cause for optimism. At best Granger is a number 2 guy, and when Mike Dunleavy is your second best player your in trouble.
14. Charlotte Bobcats (30 wins)
No idea at the direction of this team. Richardson, Wallace and Okafor are all OK players, but none of them are going to front a playoff run. Larry Brown can't do much to help either. Not hard to see the Cats 8-19 and Brown losing it completely.
15. New Jersey (24 wins)
Seems like Jay-Z is betting it all on getting LeBron in 2010. If he doesn't, he's in huge trouble because this team isn't looking in good shape. People are talking about losing Richard Jefferson. They're forgetting that Jersey also lost Marcus Williams, Desanga Diop, Boston Nachbar and Nenad Krystic (all key rotation guys) for virtually nothing. When Yi Jianlian and Josh Boone is your starting frontcourt it's going to be a long year.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers (63 wins)
It's scary how well this team is set up for now and the future. Having the best player in the game, and then Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum in the same lineup is frightening for everyone else in the league. The bench with Farmar, Vujacic, Walton, Ariza and Vlad is in great shape too. Full years from Ariza and Bynum will make this team that much better. This team should cruise (now easy task in the West) to the top of the conference. The real test will be of its mental fortitude in the playoffs.
2. Houston Rockets (58 wins)
The only genuine threat to LA. With T-Mac, Yao and Artest the Rockets' upside is scary for the Lakers. They should retain their defensive intensity from last year, and the added scoring punch of Artest makes them almost a lock for home court in the playoffs. In this environment I can't really see Artest imploding either.
3. Utah Jazz (54 wins)
This team needs to figure out how to win on the road. Maybe they should watch some Giants games or something, but something has to happen. If this team can go like .500 on the road, which they definitely should, they're a lock for 50 wins. Deron Williams is one of the elite players in the league, and they're still the toughest team to beat at home.
4. New Orleans (50 wins)
I think New Orleans is in for a bit of a regression. But you can't complain when your regression season still has you at 50 wins. Chris Paul should come back down to Earth a bit, and they didn't really impress in the playoffs against the Spurs. I think that series will do them a lot of good though. They're due for a stiffer run with health this year, and maybe a little less luck, but come the playoffs I think they'll be a harder out.
5. Phoenix Suns (48 wins)
Phoenix's demise has been slightly exaggerated. This team was probably all up about three or four plays from beating Western Conference runners-up San Antonio. Sure Nash and Shaq are older, but people are forgetting just how good Amare was towards the end of last year. I still think they're relevant.
6. Dallas Mavericks (48 wins)
They'll be improved from last year's debacle. A full season of Jason Kidd in the system will help the offense, and hopefully they've sorted out a few of their mental issues. I doubt they'll be back up to the top of the league, but they'll have a say in the playoffs.
7. San Antonio (47 wins)
Tim Duncan's getting older, Tony Parker took a huge step backwards last year and Manu Ginobili is already injured and no sure bet for the season. I don't think San Antonio are the 7th best team in the West, they're better than that. But as far as getting through 82 tough regular season games, they'll have the seventh best record in the West when all is said and done or thereabouts. Come playoff season though, they'll have a decent shot.
8. Portland Trailblazers (45 wins)
So much pressure on this team. I think they live up to expectations. Roy is a stud, and if Oden is three quarters the guy everyone says he is then the Blazers will be an almost sure thing for the playoffs. Love the way they hustle.

9. Los Angeles Clippers (40 wins)
Easily the most interesting team in the NBA. With all the controversy in the offseason and all the comings and goings this team is going to be a wild ride all season. Baron, Thornton and Gordon are three big offensive weapons, Kaman is solid down low and Camby will be a presence as always. Playoffs is not beyond them.
10. Golden State Warriors (35 wins)
No Baron, no Monta (for a while), no playoffs for the Warriors. Baron was the heart of this team, and it's hard to see the Warriors even flirting with .500 without Ellis for the first month or so. One bad month in the West will see your playoff hopes go down the drain.
11. Sacramento Kings (32 wins)
Strikes me as a team that on the surface is pretty mediocre but overachieves a little. Kevin Martin is a gun, and he's surrounded by a lot of OK players. Nothing special will abound from this team, but they're not going to embarass themselves.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (31 wins)
The future is brighter for the Wolves than it has been for a while. At least now they have some direction. Got to Love the Love and Jefferson frontcourt tandem. They'll make solid progress this year.
13. Denver Nuggets (29 wins)
Here's my big tip for the 08/09 season - the Denver Nuggets completely implode. I'm talking about punch-ons, consistent 138-114 losses and the trade of Allen Iverson at mid-season. I think it all goes to hell.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (27 wins)
A team that knows a little about hell are the players stuck on the Memphis Grizzlies. Another lottery pick awaits.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (24 wins)
The Thunder will be stuck in the lottery for quite a while. I'm sure the people of Oklahoma City will be rapt to see any sort of pro basketball (or pro sport for that matter) and Durant will be a huge buzz. They probably won't even care about winning or losing, they'll just be thrilled to watch some basketball. That's a good thing because the Thunder will be doing a lot of losing.

Championship: At this stage you can't go past the Lakers. You've got to figure with the youth and Bynum the Lakers will only get better, while the Celtics might be on the decline.

The round ball game... no, the OTHER round ball game

2008-09-23T19:02:00.002+10:00

My favourite sport in the world is Aussie rules football. I think when you factor in all the physical and athletic attributes required to play the game, the mental strength required and the aesthetic appeal of the game with its pace just make it the best sport in the world. Second in my eyes is the American version of football. What I love about American football is that each position is filled by a different type of athlete, and each position needs different attributes. Running back requires vision, instinct, explosiveness, strength and evasiveness. Guard and tackle need core and upper strength. Quarterback needs peripheral vision, decision making and a bullet arm, etc, etc. Combine that with the fascinating and endless supply of tactics, and American football is a truly remarkable sport. What slows it down though is the fact that it is, well, kind of slow. The stop start nature of the sport, and the endless ad-breaks that need to be taken just ruin the flow of the sport. I'd have our code of football higher than the American one anyway, but the time consuming nature of the game only hurts its cause.

I've been thinking about what my third favourite sport in the world is. I'm sure it used to be cricket, but I just can't muster up any enthusiasm for the sport anymore. Too long, too many spells of nothingness. Amazingly, and very un-Australian of me, I prefer baseball to cricket. I love statistics, and baseball is just dominated by them. If ever you could reduce a person or group of people to a set of numbers it's in baseball. Bottom of the 9th, bases loaded, down by 2 has got to be the most exciting situation in all of the sports just about. The problem is the lack of action and its hard to sustain enthusiasm over 9 innings. Nonetheless I'm a fan of the sport.

The less said about Soccer the better. The Italian soccer team from the 2006 World Cup has officialy decimated by faith in the world game. Tennis has risen lately because of the Nadal-Federer rivalry. The problem is though, unless it is Nadal v Federer I'm probably not going to watch the match. Rugby blah. Hockey blah. Golf blah. My third favourite sport in the world is now basketball. These guys (in my opinion) are the best athletes in the world. LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are just the best overall athletes in the world. Tall, strong, fast, co-ordinated, explosive, mentally tough. These guys have it all. What I love also is the versatility of the game these days. It's kind of inspiring to see an awkward looking small white guy from Canada to be rated the best player in the NBA for two years running. Point guard has developed into my favourite position in all of sports just about. What I love most about basketball and the NBA is this - more than any other team sport, on every night there is the potential for one guy absolutely take over a match. It was Game 5 of the Lakers-Spurs Western Conference Finals where Kobe Bryant absolutely took over the match and won purely because he wanted to. More than any other sport, basketball has the ability for one single guy to elevate his teammates to a higher place. In my eyes that's what sport is all about.

Fading powers

2008-09-23T15:42:00.002+10:00

With football season winding down (yes I will post that Collingwood 2008 review... eventually) I haven't posted as frequently as I would have liked to. For the record...

-My tips last week were Geelong and St. Kilda. I thought that the Saints would be riding the Robert Harvey factor and the Hawks had no one for Riewoldt. I forget to factor in the fact that Hawthorn are a good football team and St. Kilda are not.

-Geelong almost choked away a second preliminary final in two years. The fact that the Bulldogs (far from a great team) could have won the match if only they kicked straight is a blemish on Geelong's quality. We learnt a lot about both teams last night. The Bulldogs are still somewhat of a joke of the club. Robert Murphy and Will Minson should be haunted by that game for months. The Cats are not in the same league as the 1999-2001 Bombers or the 2001-2004 Lions. They may indeed be more talented, but they lack the mentality and killer instinct of those two teams. Similarly to the performance against Collingwood last year the Cats on Friday night played purely not to lose. That is not the mentality of a champion team.

-Is it safe to say Luke Hodge is now the greatest spiritual leader of a football team in 20 years?

-My tip for the Brownlow was Simon Black and the umpires nearly made me look like a genius. I'm not happy with Cooney taking out the award. Black and Ablett are two absolute champions of the game who give all they have every single match. Adam Cooney can be shut out of games on a regular basis.

-Full credit to Paul Medhurst on his All Australian selection and 12 brownlow votes. Well deserved.

-Had Matthew Richardson won the Brownlow, well... my faith in humanity would have taken a significant hit.

ANYWAY, moving on. As I said, the footy season is winding down. To fill the time until we get going again I'll be looking at other sports. In my mind, factoring in everything American football is the second greatest sport in the world. The NFL season has now well and truly kicked off. I started really taking a keen interest in the NFL in the playoff season of 2006/07. The first game I really watched was the now famous playoff game where Seattle beat Dallas 21-20 after Tony Romo let the game go in the final minute. It was an amazing match, and not long after I watched the incredible match between Indianapolis and New England and I was well and truly hooked on the sport. I'm a New York Giants fan, and I was absolutely thrilled watching their Super Bowl campaign last year, which features three amazing matches in a row.

My plan for the NFL season is this. On Monday or Tuesday I'll write about my thoughts on the weekend's happenings, and then rate who at that particular stage who the playoff teams of the season will be. On Friday, Saturday or Sunday I will give some predictions for the upcoming matches. Anyway, here we go...

AFC

1. Tennessee Titans (3-0)
It's amazing really that Tennessee can be the best team in the AFC. What happened to perennial super powers New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and up and comers Jacksonville and Cleveland? They've all fallen flat on their faces and old (or young) reliable Tennessee has been the most consistently impressive team in the conference. The defense has been the best in the league, the running game has been terrific and Kerry Collins has provided stability at QB. The season may hinge on how the Vince Young situation is handled.

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0)
Much like Tennessee in that they aren't that flashy, they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards are fast establishing themselves as top players at their respective positions. The defense has been stout, and despite only beating the lowly Raiders (or perhaps not so lowly after back to back impressive performances) by a single point they gave their strongest indication that they will be a contender this year - they managed to pull out a win even when they weren't playing the well, perhaps the greatest mark of a good team.

3. San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Patriots have lost Brady, Colts have lost a lot too, but the Chargers don't have that excuse. Well they do have a greater excuse, the fact that they were genuinely robbed of victory by the ref in Denver, but that was still a match they should have won. The offense is still absolute dynamite. LT is still the best back in the business, and Darren Sproles amazingly isn't too far behind - this guy is extraordinary. Phillip Rivers has taken the next step. The defense creates turnovers, but has been terrible so far. Conceding something like 90 points over three games will not get it done. Sure they could easily be 3-0, but that defense needs to improve dramatically if they're to be taken really seriously.

4. Denver Broncos (3-0)
I need to establish that these rankings aren't to state what I believe the final standings will be - they're to show who I believe has the best shot at making the Super Bowl. At this stage, I still think San Diego are a better team than Denver. And Tennessee and Buffalo more together than the Broncos. They may have the best offense in the league but the defense isn't far from the worst. They will struggle in big matches against good defensive teams. I still think they'll win the division though.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
These last two spots are really difficult to figure. I went with Pittsburgh here because I figure that they'll get out of the uninspiring AFC North without too much difficulty. The defense is solid, and the offense with Big Ben, Fast Willie and the Ward/Holmes combo is pretty good. The question will be whether all of this is good enough to counter the genuinely shocking offensive line they have going.

6. New England Patriots (2-1)
Indy and Jacksonville seem too banged up so I'm going with the Patriots here, despite the incredible showing against Miami. Incredible in the worst possible sense of the word. I don't think the game was a total abberation, but you could make an argument that it was simply too bad and too wacky to be true. Cassell has to go. The Patriots need a veteran Kerry Collins-like QB to manage the offense. The offense right now with these dinky slant passes looks impotent. The difference between the Patriots making the playoffs and being on the outside looking in will depend on someone having the ability to get the long ball to Randy Moss. They get in the playoffs based on their incredibly easy schedule.

On the outside looking in:

Jacksonville: Brave performance against the Colts. Saved their season with good hustle, some luck and a guy named Scobee. I still think that offensive line and the team altogether is too banged up to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis: Also too banged up. Run defense has been a joke all season and the supposedly superhuman Manning/Addai/Wayne/Harrison/Gonzales offense is averaging just 17 points a game.
Baltimore: I don't buy it. Defense might get them 8 wins this season, but the offense and Joe Flacco don't exactly inspire. Look for Pittsburgh to embarrass them this Monday night.
New York Jets: Were embarrassed today by San Diego. What's more embarrassing though is the fact that they lost to a team at home that lost to Miami by 25 (which by the way they were lucky to beat in the first place. Jets looking more and more like a 6-10 team, and Favre looks his age.

NFC

1. Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
No arguments here I hope. The best team in football and then some. The defense doesn't look that special, but with an offense like this ala Patriots 07 it's not going to matter. Put it this way - Brady/Maroney/Faulk/Moss/Welker/Watson or Romo/Barber/Jones/Owens/Crayton/Witten? The fact that you at least have to think long and hard about it just goes to show exactly how good these Cowboys are. I'm not about to put forward a case for a perfect season though. Romo might have the talent but he doesn't have close to the composure of Brady.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Eagles have played two quality opponents the past two weeks and have come up big both times. Any doubts about the defense after the Dallas match are just about non-existent now after they absolutely raped Big Ben and the Steelers. Next week against Chicago will be interesting, we'll see how they stack up against a really good defense.

3. New York Giants (3-0)
There's a much different feel to this Giants team this year than to last year. Last year they played with desperation, this year they're playing with composure. It's not a great ball club, but it's an all round solid team. The defense has proven that it can get the job done, and Eli Manning is showing postseason form early on. They'll go into the bye week full of confidence. When they come back they'll have games against Seatlle, @Cleveland and then home to San Francisco. They should actually find themselves 7-0. They're going to need that buffer because after that light stretch they go @Pittsburgh, Dallas and @Philadelphia. Good times.

4. Green Bay (2-1)
Despite the letdown against Dallas you still have to like this team. Say what you want but Aaron Rodgers is having a much better season than Brett Favre to this pont. Greg Jennings has established himself as a force, they just need Ryan Grant to do the same. Smells like an 11-5 team to me.

5. Carolina Panthers (2-1)
I wouldn't be too fazed with the Minnesota loss. That was a team that desperately needed to win. I still really like this team. Jake Delhomme is a quality QB, the receiving corps with Steve Smith back are very good and Jonathan Stewart will only continue to develop. With an easy schedule and home games against Atlanta and Kansas City coming up the Panthers are a near lock for 4-1 and should take the NFC South with relative ease.

6. San Fransisco 49ers (2-1)
Why not? Someone has to come out of the dreadful West, and the 49ers are in as good shape as everyone. The Seahawks are banged up, the Cardinals aren't anything inspiring and the Rams aren't going anywhere fast. The defense isn't too shabby, Frank Gore has been great and JT O'Sullivan is actually a decent QB. I watched him against Seattle last weekend and he looked really good. Sure they'll probably get murdered in the first round of the playoffs, but they're a good shot to be there.

On the outside looking in:

Minnesota: I like Green Bay more. The Packers and Vikings are a dead heat on defense but the Packers have a much better passing game, the best upside wildcard guy of the two teams (Grant) and seemingly a lot more heart. The Vikes might go 9-7 or even 10-6 but such is the structure of the playoffs the 7-9 49ers might edge them out.
Tampa Bay: Sure the defense is great again and they have a knack of beating the teams they should beat, but much like Minnesota I just prefer another team in their division. The Panthers are a better all round team, and such is the quality (and schedule in one team's case) of the Eagles and Giants I see the Wild Cards locked up already.
Chicago: Harsh as it may seem, the Bears season might have ended with those losses against Carolina and Tampa. Leading as deep as they led, and at home, those are games you absolutely have to win.
New Orleans: The loss of Colston and now Shockey is too devastating for a team that relies solely on its offense to win matches. A disappointing 7-9 season coming up.

Super Bowl pick: Still has to be Dallas. Unless Indy suddenly gets healthy, San Diego gets its defensive act together or Tom Brady's knee is touched by god I think it's safe to say that for all intents and purposes the Super Bowl will be played a couple weeks early in the NFC Championship game. As we stand I'd favour Philly and the Giants over any AFC team. And I fancy Dallas over both of them.

State of the box

2008-09-18T17:42:00.005+10:00

I'll post my retroactive 2008 season review for Collingwood later on, for now I'll talk about something a bit more fun - TV.

It's that time of year, in Australia at least, where all the new shows are coming out. It's of my opinion that TV has hit a rough spot these past few years. My beloved X-Files has been off the air for now seven years. Guilty pleasures like Alias (2006), Veronica Mars (2007), Buffy the Vampire Slayer (2003) and its spinoff Angel (2004) have long been canceled. The 'greatest show of all time' The Sopranos has run its course.

In the way of comedy there is virtually nothing on the air. The great sitcoms Seinfeld, Frasier and Everybody Loves Raymond and Friends at a stretch are finished. The Simpsons is embarrassing to watch these days. Shamefully Arrested Development, in my mind the single funniest laugh out loud show of all time, was canceled. What's left is slim pickings. I don't really want to spend my nights watching How I Met Your Mother, Two-and-a-half-men or My Name is Earl. It just doesn't appeal to me. Even Scrubs has gotten dull. Seems like the same trick played over and over again.

On the other hand drama isn't much better off. I've long lost interest in Desperate Housewives and Lost. Shows like Heroes, Smallville and Ghost Whisperer are way too cheesy to enjoy. Grey's Anatomy is too soppy. Could never get into Jericho or The 4400. Same old same old with the Law and Orders and CSI's. Committing a night to one of those shows is an automatic B minus night. It's practically assured. Same goes for NCIS and Numbers. Very sick of these procedural dramas.

On the brighter side of things. House, Weeds and Brothers and Sisters are three shows I enjoy watching. House is a great blend of acting and writing, it's a joy to watch. Problem is it seems like we're watching the same episode every week with a slightly different script. Weeds is one of the wittiest shows I've ever seen but it's on too late at night. Maybe one for the DVD. Brothers and Sisters which I'm ashamed to like is actually not all that bad. Obviously it's soppy, but the cast is fantastic and it's slightly addictive. Again though, it's on too late. Then there are shows like The Wire and Curb Your Enthusiasm which I'm sure I would like, but I pretty much can't be bothered setting aside time to watch them. Anyway, this prolonged introduction is building up to the shows that I can be bothered setting time aside for.

My relationship with Prison Break came perilously close to ending. I had gotten fed up with the lack of movement in the storyline, and the basic lack of anything new happening. In my outrage I did something I'd never done before with the show - I taped the last two episodes of the season and didn't have an expressed desire to watch them. Only by chance did it come by that I had a blank afternoon and I decided to give the show another shot. Unfortunately I was left disappointed, and I'm not sure I have that much interest in committing myself to season four. The first season of Prison Break was really terrific. One of the best seasons of TV I've ever seen. The second season was a massive dropoff, but still worth watching. And the last scene of that season was probably the best of the series. The third season though felt way too much like a poor man's version of the first. I'll probably tune in to watch the first episode of season 4, but beyond that nothing is a sure thing.

I think last year 24 lost its title of 'best show on TV'. I'll go on the record as saying that seasons 1 and 2 of 24 were the best back-to-back seasons of a television drama ever. Only X-Files seasons 2 and 3, and 6 and 7 compare in my eyes. Season 3 was still excellent for 24 but season 4 was a letdown. Season 5 was a huge return to form. Then came Season 6, which even the writers admitted was terrible. That can't be understated, it was dreadful. This is a show that I considered head and shoulders above the rest of the competition. A show where I once opted to watch it over the finale to the Edgbaston test in the 2005 Ashes. And I considered stopping watching during the sixth season. It was that bad. Last year 24 was no longer must see TV, it was well-yeah-if-it's-on-I'll-guess-I'll-tune-in TV. This said I was thrilled with the season finale. The last 20 minutes of that episode were 20 of the best of the series. I'm liking the look of season 7 so far as well. And yeah, any show with Jack Bauer must be watched whatever the price. The greatest TV character on Earth.

If 24 is no longer the best show on TV what is? It's Boston Legal and nothing else is even close. The most underrated TV show in history, this show has everything. It's funny, it's witty, it's well-acted, well-written and poingnant at the same time. This show has a heart. I'd say that Alan Shore is second only to Jack Bauer, but it would be blasphemous to label Alan Shore second to anyone, even if it is God. The best mix of biting comedy and poignant drama I've ever seen on TV.

Those have been my three shows for a couple of years now, but lately there has been a wave of shows threatening to join them. The J.J. Abrams blockbuster series Fringe has really grabbed my attention. I absolutely loved the pilot. It's solidly written, well acted and has that wow factor that The X-Files had. The ideas in the show are so geeky they're kind of cool. I'll be honest and say that I haven't been this excited for a new TV show in a while.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm watching 90210. I can't really justify this, but I'm drawn to the show. No need to delve deeper into this.

I know it's been on for a while but I'm just starting to get into Dexter. I missed the premiere and succeeding episodes so yesterday I bought the first season on DVD. So far I'm pretty impressed. The storylines aren't that great, but you find yourself caring about these characters a good deal. And Dexter Morgan has to be about the most fascinating character of the past decade.

TV has been in the doldrums lately. A few years ago when Lost, Desperate Housewives and Prison Break all debuted and 24 and Boston Legal were in full swing it looked like we were in good shape. Boston Legal is still going strong, but 24 and Prison Break have dropped off, Desperate Housewives has descended from biting satire to pure soap, and despite the ratings these days Lost is nothing more than a punchline. Here's hoping shows like Fringe, Dexter and uh 90210 can lead us back to the glory days of the 90s.

Semi-final feelings

2008-09-11T23:24:00.002+10:00

It's hard to get excited about the matches this weekend, because really the teams are just playing off to see who will get beaten by Geelong and Hawthorn. The Saints matchup okay with Hawthorn and did beat them not that long ago, and the Pies can never really be counted out of any final, but it's too hard to see them beating the Hawks. On the other side of the draw the Bulldogs and Sydney have absolutely no chance of beating the Cats. It's virtually impossible.

Nevertheless the games will be played. I gotta say I like the Swans on Friday night. It's not so much liking the Swans though, as it is having zero faith in the Bulldogs. The Dogs looked atrocious against Hawthorn. Up against a quality composed side like the Hawks the Dogs looked second rate. The Swans aren't really a quality team but they are a composed one - they won't fear the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are by far the better team, but this just feels like a game where the Swans get up early, the Bulldogs mount a desperate comeback late, but the composed Swans hold on. Sydney 89 Bulldogs 85

I'm getting a lot of bad vibes about the Collingwood match. Everyone seems to be tipping Collingwood which isn't a good thing. The Pies are 8-7 in the games where they were favourites. That's really not a good record, considering that they were/are 5-3 in games as the underdog. All signs are pointing to St. Kilda. Lenny Hayes got extremely lucky with the lack of footage relating to his report, Luke Ball regaining fitness, and the Robert Harvey factor. These players respect Harvey too much to not give it their all. Add to that the fact that Riewoldt is a virtual lock to rebound from last week. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm finding it hard to see Collingwood winning. St. Kilda 104 Collingwood 82

1st Qualifying Final: Geelong vs. St Kilda

2008-09-07T14:36:00.004+10:00

Really hard to see the Saints getting over the line here. The midfield and defence just seems to slow and they don't have any obvious candidate to go with Ablett. You get the sense that Riewoldt is going to have to kick 6 or 7 for the Saints to have a chance. The wildcard here though is the Robert Harvey factor. There's that outside chance that the Saints get inspired for Harvey and give a performance for the ages. It's a stretch but that's the Saints' best hope really. Interesting of course from a Collingwood perspective as we'll be playing the loser (St. Kilda). We matchup better with the Cats, but obviously you take the 13-9 team over one of the greatest teams of all time. Hard to barrack for either team, so I'll be barracking for broken legs and overtime. Go Pies.

Update: Lots of rain forecast. Not sure who this favours, I guess anything that brings the match closer has to favour the Saints. Still sticking by the Cats, but I'm revising my prediction to Geelong 97 St. Kilda 64

FIRST QUARTER

Play clock 19 minutes: Interesting matchups to start - Gram on Ablett, Ling on Dal Santo. In these conditions I don't think Dal Santo's going to have much on an impact anyway. Stick Ling on clearance king Lenny Hayes. I like the Gram on Ablett matchup though, not sure why, I just do.
17 minutes: Three dropped marks to Riewoldt already. None gimmes, but he could have taken all of them. Jitters?
15 minutes: Schneider gets the first goal, Saints looking solid.
14 minutes: Hayes gives away a free kick and Chapman slots it from about 45 out. Underrated player, one of the best in the league really.
13 minutes: James Blake just rushed a behind with his fist from about 15 metres out from goal. With the momentum of the ball and the heaviness that is not an easy thing to do. By the way Steve Johnson has made about 4 errors so far.
8 minutes: Brent Prismall has done his knee, probably his season over. Good timing for the Saints, something to halt Geelong's momentum.
7 minutes: Cam Mooney kicks a goal and that's 19-6. Cats looking light years ahead of the Saints. Commentators are discussing if playing 21 on 22 the rest of the match will affect the Cats. The short answer is no. The Cats would beat St. Kilda with 17 fit men. They actually would.
6 minutes: James Bartel is raping St. Kilda. Amassing disposal after disposal, and he slots a goal from the boundary to make it 25-6. The Saints haven't got it past the centre line in almost 5 minutes. This is going to be ugly.
5 minutes: Ross Lyon seems resigned to his team's fate. Riewoldt's having a shocker.
4 minutes: Prismall update: he's fine. Commentators overblow injuries way too often.
2 minutes: Harry Taylor is killing Riewoldt. Conditions definitely favouring Geelong. Geelong = Hard, Saints = Soft. That's only been maximised by the weather.

QUARTER TIME

10 scoring shots to 2 tells the tale. Saints had a good opening 5 minutes, and a solid final 5 minutes. Everything in between was Geelong domination. Cats failed to take their chances in front of goal, but I've got a feeling that's not going to matter.

SECOND QUARTER

14 minutes: This Cats team really is amazing. It's said so often, but it's true. They've got all these stars Gary Ablett, James Bartel, Joel Corey, Cameron Ling, Cameron Mooney, Matthew Scarlett, Corey Enright, Tom Harley, Darren Milburn, Brad Ottens. But they're so good that they have these second or third string players like Harry Taylor can step up and assert himself on a match in a big way. Taylor's just about been best on ground today.
13 minutes: Milne snaps a goal to make it 31-14. It gives the Saints life but it's not going to matter.
11 minutes: Riewoldt is pulling a Cloke and having the worst match of his life just when his team needs him most. The difference is Collingwood could afford Cloke's poor match, there's no doubt that the Saints can't afford Riewoldt to keep on playing like this.
9 minutes: Riewoldt is greeted with a Bronx cheer as he finally holds an overhead mark.
8 minutes: Shocking passage of play in St. Kilda's defence right there. St. Kilda defender kicks an uncontested ball into the man on the mark, Sam Fisher follows up by spraying a kick out on the full. Mooney makes them pay with a goal and that's 46-14. Pretty much game over now.
6 minutes: Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna, Harvey is a nice midfield, but Bartel, Ablett, Corey and Ling are making them look bad. Very bad. Jimmy Bartel is playing out of his skin.
4 minutes: Ottens, a guy everyone seems to forget about, slots his second after a pinpoint pass from Joel Corey. 52-14.
1 minute: Geelong's tackling has been sensational. Maybe Collingwood taught them something.

HALF TIME

52-20 is flattering for St. Kilda. In every possible area, except luck, Geelong has beaten the Saints. No conceiveible way that St. Kilda come back in this one. Geelong going harder at the contest, creating more space, and just in general playing smarter football. Jimmy Bartel is reminding everyone that he's the Brownlow medallist, not Gary Ablett. Bartel's first half has been amazing. The fact is this. Nick Riewoldt is a champion, a player that can hold his head high even amongst Geelong's elite (although not today). Then there is no one. You can't tell me that Lenny Hayes or Nick Dal Santo is as good as Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Scarlett, Ling, Johnson or Selwood. Hayes and Dal Santo are the Saints' 2nd and 3rd best players, yet they'd only cut it with Geelong's 2nd stringers. When you've got 7 of the best 8 players on the field you're a good shot to win the match.

THIRD QUARTER

15 minutes: Brendon 'first draft pick' Goddard takes a fantastic mark and then follows up with the goal to keep the Saints 'close'. 55-26.
10 minutes: Couple of Geelong goals and its 74-26, game over. Saints should get ready for Collingwood already.
5 minutes: 86-34 getting ugly now... Remarkable stat just came up - the Cats have only an Inside 50 advantage of 7, yet they lead by almost ten goals. That's astounding. A massive blight on the entry by the Saints midfielders, and especially Nick Riewoldt.
2 minutes: 99-35 now and the lead has gone past ten goals. This game is dead now, so I'm out. I will say this though. Collingwood have got to be watching this match and licking their lips at St. Kilda's ineptitude. Not to jinx us but the Pies have to be considered favourites next week. And on the other front, I don't envy Hawthorn on the prospect of a Grand Final vs. the Cats. This unit is looking more dominant than even the Lions dynasty of a few years back. Scary.

Votes

8 - James Bartel (Geel)
8 - Brad Ottens (Geel)
8 - Gary Ablett (Geel)
7 - Harry Taylor (Geel)
7 - Brendon Goddard (St. K)

For the record...

2008-09-07T13:41:00.002+10:00

Geelong 119 St.Kilda 91

Three quarters strong: Fremantle Dockers 2008

2008-09-06T22:57:00.003+10:00

2007 season: 10-12 (11th)
2008 season: 6-16 (14th)

6 wins over the course of a 22 match would give the indication that your a pretty average team. The fact is that Fremantle could have just as easily won twice as many games as they did. Fremantle were truly a three-quarter team, playing strong football for three quarters before fading (or imploding) in the final quarter. For five weeks in a row from round 6-10 the Dockers led deep into the second half and lost. Five times in a row. They also coughed up a pair of games against Sydney and Essendon (both by 4 points) that they definitely should not have. The Dockers were a remarkable 1-10 in games decided by 3 goals or less. How did this happen? Well, it's harsh, but if Matthew Pavlich could kick straight at the death the Dockers more likely than not would have beaten Geelong (definite), Sydney (definite), Carlton (probable), Port Adelaide (possible). It's a bit difficult though to peg the failed season on the club's best player. The fact is that in final terms the Dockers tightened up, over-possessed the ball, made stupid errors and couldn't get any run going. Looking at their results they should have definitely beaten Geelong, Melbourne, the Bulldogs and Sydney. They had 50/50 matches against Carlton, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Richmond that went against them. Give them the wins they definitely should have had and half of the 50/50s and that's 12 wins for the season and finals. This team is not that far off.

The Dockers got a lot younger this year. Veterans Matthew Carr, Peter Bell, Shaun McManus, Mark Johnson, Jeff Farmer and Heath Black all retired. The Dockers played the youth towards the end of the season and it looked good. The core of youth the Dockers has looks very impressive. Clayton Hinkley, Chris Mayne, Garrick Ibbotson and of course Rhys Palmer all looked great. None of those guys had played a game of AFL before 2008. The next group of young guys, Paul Duffield (23), Ryan Crowley (24), Michael Johnson (23), Robert Warnock (21), Byron Schammer (23), Brett Peake (25) and David Mundy (23) will all be at the team for a while to come.

Despite the losses they've taken, the veteran group still looks very decent. Paul Haselby (27) is still a gun and will be hoping to bounce back after missing all of this year. Next year he'll provide a touch of class and hardness the Dockers midfield might have been missing. Des Headland (27) is still a super talent, he just needs to get it all together. Roger Hayden (27) has emerged as a gun defender, capable of shutting down his opponnent and providing dash. Luke McPharlin (26) is a tremendous athlete and talent and put together a great 2008. Josh Carr (28) if he sticks around is still one of the best taggers in the league. He'll be looking to continue as a key defender that can be swung forward next year. Aaron Sandilands is the dominant tap-ruckman in the league. With the continued development of Palmer and Ibbotson, as well as the return of Haselby, the Dockers midfield could be scary in the future at the feet of Sandilands. Dean Solomon and Chris Tarrant can still both contribute, albeit in differant ways. Solomon is a low-skill player high on toughness, his presence is still welcome at Fremantle you suspect. Chris Tarrant after poor form early salvaged his season with some solid form. He's still an elite talent, and can provide a very good #2 option behind Matthew Pavlich. Any team with Matthew Pavlich (still just 26) has something to look forward to. You suspect that the Dockers have two or three years left of Pavlich in his prime, and they need to make the most of it.

The immediate future for Fremantle looks a lot brighter than it does for either of the two teams below them. The Dockers played solid respectable football all season, and in the final two weeks they showed what the future is capable of. The final match of the season against Collingwood showcased their hopes for 2009. Matthew Pavlich is an elite player, Rhys Palmer is not far behind. With the blend of youth and experience the Dockers have they will be a contender for finals next year. Even if they fall short at least their fans have years of Rhys Palmer to look forward to.

2008
Best player: I'm temped to say Rhys Palmer, because of Pavlich's late game slip-ups, but that would be an injustice. Despite playing on a 6 win team Matthew Pavlich was brilliant in what was arguably his finest season. A dominant player in the league.
Best match: Round 18, Fremantle 17. 14 116 def. West Coast 12. 11 83 (Subiaco)
Emotion charged win in Shaun McManus' final game.
Worst match: Round 4, Fremantle: 10. 13 73 def. by Richmond 20. 17 137 (Subiaco)
Losing at home by ten goals in the fourth round to the Wooden spooner is unforgivable. I'm still in shock that this actually happened.
Key players: Matthew Pavlich, Rhys Palmer, Garrick Ibbotson, Luke McPharlin, Roger Hayden, Paul Haselby, Aaron Sandilands.
Needs to lift: Des Headland, Chris Tarrant. Headland was a star on the rise at Brisbane but has largely disappointed at Fremantle. Needs to lift to repay the Dockers for the price they paid for him. Chris Tarrant was once a terrific player, and considering his age he should still be in his prime. Needs to kick 40 odd goals next year next to Pavlich.
2009 forecast: Anything could happen next year for the Dockers. I don't think they'll make finals, but they won't be a pushover. A middling result of about 12th wouldn't surprise me, but it will leave fans feeling better about the club than they are right now. The future is bright.
2008 grade: D+

Thoughts on Friday night

2008-09-06T22:27:00.003+10:00

There are a lot of great trio's out there. Ablett, Bartel and Corey. Black, Brown and Power. Judd, Murphy, Fev. Riewoldt, Hayes, Dal Santo. But I think last night settled that Franklin, Mitchell and Hodge is the best trio in the AFL. Hodge absolutely dominated in defence, stopping the Bulldogs attack and quarterbacking the Hawks drive forward. Mitchell was superb in the middle, controlling the stoppages. And Buddy kicked 8. Those three were the key to what was ultimately a pretty basic Hawthorn win.

I'm still struggling to fathom exactly how the Bulldogs managed to be so inept last night. For four weeks the Bulldogs knew they were going to play Hawthorn. They had a whole month to devise strategies to combat Hawthorn's defensive zone, yet they looked like they had no idea whatsoever. At first the Dogs looked like they were going to try and run, carry and handball through the Hawks' zone. Then they got nervous, started getting to close to teammates, mistiming handballs, etc. In the second and third terms they tried pinpointing passes through the zone. This failed miserably. Such is Hawthorn's zone that the passes have to be absolutely perfect. Sometimes they were, but it wasn't often. On numerous occasions the Dogs found themselves trying to pinpoint passes laterally. It was sad to watch.

The Hawks on the other hand looked brilliant. They got numbers back in defence, controlled the midfield, and looked dangerous every single time they went forward. After last night you have to consider them very, very close to Geelong. Watching next week's Collingwood match will be hard, knowing that Hawthorn are waiting in the preliminary final for us.

Votes

8 - Luke Hodge (Haw)
8 - Lance Franklin (Haw)
8 - Sam Mitchell (Haw)
8 - Michael Osbourne (Haw)
7 - Jordan Lewis (Haw)

2nd Elimination Final: Sydney vs. Kangaroos

2008-09-06T20:00:00.004+10:00

First quarter thoughts

Ugly quarter in what's going to be a very ugly match. Terrible, but not really surprising, that only 20, 000 people rocked up. For a final. For a final! The Kangaroos played a solid quarter, although luck certainly helped them. Shocking decision on the Harvey 'goal'. Put that with the Medhurst goal-that-wasn't and that's two potentially devastating mistakes from umpires. In a final. In a final. Swans got back into the game towards the end of the term though. Their three guns, O'Keefe, Goodes and Hall all had relatively easy shots at goal in the final minutes. O'Keefe slotted his, but Goodes and Barry '2 behinds in the 06 grand final' Hall both missed. The Kangaroos look in good shape, and their fans should be feeling confident. All 17 of them.

SECOND TERM

3 minute mark: Wow, another shocking goal umpiring decision. Kangaroo player kicks a clear goal and it's called a point. Stuff like this shouldn't happened three times in a day. In a final too. A final. I guess things even out for the Kangaroos though.
7 minute mark: Nathan Thompson's star really has waned. It wasn't too long ago he was being mentioned as a candidate for the key forward elite. Still takes a good mark, but still can't kick. Done nothing tonight except miss a set shot and nearly paralyse his star teammate. Well done Nathan.
9 minute mark: Ryan O'Keefe is keeping Sydney in this match. Two great marks and two great goals. Really underrated player. You look at the best half-forward flankers in the league (Murphy, Didak) and he's as good as any of them.
12 minute mark: Almost on cue Nathan Thompson drops an easy mark, although gets the free kick and then proceeds to miss from 30 metres out from directly in front. Again, well done Nathan.
17 minute mark: Almost controversial again. This Veszpremi kid has a shot touched on the line by Josh Gibson. Clear touch from Gibson, but the field umpire had to clear it. What's remarkable is that Gibson almost didn't touch it. The ball was about 2 metres off the ground.
19 minute mark: Brett Kirk is great to watch. Just puts his body on the line every single time. Refreshing to see someone with scruffy hair that can't kick, mark or run fast being an absolute champion.
20 minute mark: Shannon Grant hammers home the first Kangaroos goal in... well a while. Directly in front almost, no pressure about 15 metres out. Grant never misses those does he.
23 minute mark: Another Grant goal, Kangaroos leading by 16 now, dangerous times for Sydney.
24 minute mark: The euphoria of those 17 men doesn't last long as Jarred Moore kicks a goal to get Sydney back within a couple of kicks. I really like this Moore kid. He's 22 years old, averaged 15 disposals a game this year and kicked 23 goals. He looks like Daniel Kerr the way he plays. Great lowered centre of gravity. If he was better looking he'd be heralded as a star.
28 minute mark: Brent Harvey pulls a Sam Mitchell and instinctively attempts to trip Lewis Roberts-Thompson. Lucky Harvey's tripping skills aren't as good as his footy skills - he missed Lewis by more than a metre.

HALF-TIME

Extremely uninspiring match from a pair of uninspiring teams so far. The fact that Sydney's best player from the first half had 3 disposals (O'Keefe) tells a story of its own. McVeigh and Buchanan have been alright, and Darren Jolley (21 hitouts already!) has been dominant at the stoppages. Adam Goodes has had the Baades, Hall has done nothing and Kennelley has had no impact. For the Roos Shannon Grant is playing very well. He's playing like he wants to keep on playing. Simpson has held Kirk well and won 10 possessions himself. Apparently Brent Harvey has picked up 12 disposals, but I haven't noticed. He needs to have a more explosive impact.

Sydney have been better with the contested ball, Kangaroos playing a bit smarter and running harder. Kangaroos are the better team, but home ground advantage and the conditions favour Sydney. Hard game to predict really, could go either way. No evidence to really support this, but I'm sticking with my Sydney tip. Swans have got to start taking advantage of that 33-14 ruck advantage.

THIRD QUARTER

1 minute mark: Lewis Roberts-Thompson has to be the ugliest guy in the league. He's not even that good at football either. In the meantime David '15 goals in 3 weeks' Hale just kicked it straight to a Sydney player 10 metres in the clear.
2 minute mark: Some more O'Keefe love coming up, he just took a strong mark against two guys moved the ball on quickly to Hall who kicks his first goal of the game. O'Keefe has basically kicked 3 goals in 4 touches of the ball. Looks like someone wants to be John Anthony.
4 minute mark: Adam Goodes really is a superstar. Just took a Jonathan Brown back with the flight mark mixed with some Dale Thomas athleticism on the leap. Sure enough he slots the goal to put the Swans in front 42-40. Superstar.
6 minute mark: Sydney really taking over now, we'll see what the Kangaroos are made of. Collingwood responded when the home team came hard, let's see if the Roos can do the same. Yep that was just an excuse to applaud Collingwood, although we did come back from four goals down on the road in a final. And we beat Geelong by 86 FREAKIN POINTS!
8 minute mark: Another goal! Jarred McVeigh reads the ball from a stoppage and kicks a terrific goal on the run. Judd-esque. McVeigh another really underrated player. Won't forget how he shutdown Ben Cousins in the 2006 Grand Final, and this year he's added that attacking element to his game. Fantastic tagger and wins plenty of ball himself. The good looking man's answer to Kane Cornes.
11 minute mark: O'Keefe sets up another goal! Gets it to the advantage of Hall once again, Hall uses his strength and kicks a terrific goal on his wrong side. Swans taking over this match now. The guns, Hall, Goodes, O'Keefe and now especially Kirk are all lifting.
12 minute mark: Nathan Thompson kicks a goal on his left too, much needed for the Roos. 54-47 Sydney.
14 minute mark: Classic moment right there. Veszpremi kicks a goal from the goalsquare, runs towards the fans for an O'Loughlin like wild celebration but settles once he realises there are about 12 fans in that part of the crowd.
17 minute mark: Kieran Jack gets this wide-eyed look on his face after every goal he kicks, as though each one was his first. Anyway, Hall is dominating this game he just set up that goal for the youngster. And the Swans lead 66-47.
19 minute mark: Swans are absolutely raping the Kangaroos in the ruck. 41 hitouts from Everitt and Jolly combined. Petrie and Hale have half that. Brett Kirk is reaping the benefits. Meanwhile the Roos just kicked a goal to cut it to 13 points.
20 minute mark: Ed Lower, the kid that kicked the last goal, goals again to cut it to just 7 points. This is followed by the overstatement of the century when Tim Lane calls the match an 'epic elimination final'. Sorry Tim, it's not even the best elimination final of the past 5 hours.
24 minute mark: How much does Jarred McVeigh look like a white James Blake (the tennis player)? Very.
25 minute mark: White James Blake and Brett Kirk are absolutely controlling the stoppages.
28 minute mark: Dagger goal from Adam Goodes, absolute dagger. Plays on after a stupid out of bounds on the full from Harris, and goals from about 35. 78-59, in these conditions that might just be a bit too hard. Although Robert Walls just reminded me that the Swans kicked 8 goals this quarter.
29 minute mark: Goodes just misses an absolute sitter from not more than 20 metres out directly in front on the run. That could hurt, but the way the Roos are playing it's hard to see how.
30 minute mark: After just about being their best player in the first half, Shannon 'Collingwood' Grant has picked up one possession this quarter. Brett Kirt and McVeigh both have 11 touches for the quarter, O'Keefe has 6. Brent Harvey has 2. That tells its own tale for the quarter.
33 minute mark: David Hale slots a massive goal after the siren to cut it to 14, giving the Kangaroos a glimmer. Given Sydney's dominance this term the Roos are lucky to be in this match, let alone this close.

THREE QUARTER TIME

Can't see the Roos coming back, or Sydney blowing it. The dominance in the ruck and at the stoppages is just too great. Yeah, the Kangaroos will probably win by 5 goals now.

Three quarter time music from channel ten sounds more like the theme to a Spiderman playstation game than a football match. This heavy ominous score is laughable. Did everyone forget that this is 6th vs. 7th and only 20, 000 people are here tonight? Amazing.

FOURTH QUARTER

1st minute mark: Brett Kirk's courage back with the flight saves a shot on goal for Nathan Thompson. Probably wouldn't have mattered anyway had Thompson taken the mark. It's Thompson.
4 minute mark: Ed Lower hits the post from 25 metres out, costly miss. 79-67 Swans. Kangaroos looking much better this quarter though, controlling the play.
5 minute mark: Barry Hall kicks another goal. He's having a terrific night. I think he's one every single one-on-one. He kicks his 3rd, and tonight he's probably trippled his chances of staying at Sydney next year. That goal may have been the sealer. 85-68 Swans.
9 minute mark: Great passage of play. O'Keefe takes a remarkable one-handed mark and delivers to Hall who takes a great contested mark. Hall misses the goal though. Roos still alive. Just.
10 minute mark: Kieran Jack snaps out of a pack and goals. His third of the night, and that's game over. Kangaroos aren't coming back from a 92-68 deficit.
12 minute mark: Jarred Moore goals, and that's officially game over. It's remarkable how far from grace the Kangaroos have fallen. Three weeks ago the Kangaroos were touted as Geelong's number one contender. A disappointing showing against the Cats, and a shocking loss to Port Adelaide set the wheels in motion, and now tonight the Kangaroos hit rock bottom.
15 minute mark: Really shocking performance from the Swans fans tonight. 19, 127 is the official attendance, and that's about 19, 127 too few. I can appreciate that the weather is shocking, the Kangaroos aren't bring many of their own supporters with them, and the Swans have not had the best form, but still it's a final at home where your side is the favourite. That statement alone should guarantee at least 30, 000. I think we learnt a lot about the Sydney fan base tonight - they only support winners, and only in conditions they like.
19 minute mark: Goals to Richards (a beauty) and Goodes make it 110-68. Depressing times for those 17 blokes.
22 minute mark: I know I wrote Sydney's obituary about a fortnight ago, but tonight they looked pretty impressive. O'Keefe, McVeigh, Kirk and Hall all fired, and Darren Jolly absolutely dominated. Adam Goodes didn't have a huge impact, but the Swans got by without him. Not sure how much I like their chances against the Dogs. The Dogs are a much more athletic and quicker squad than the Roos, and will trouble Sydney's aging list. The Dogs will go in favourites obviously, but Sydney aren't without a real shot.

FULL TIME

Good win from the Swans, a great all round performance in the second half. Brett Kirk was inspirational in the second half and Jarred McVeigh was brilliant for all four quarters. They controlled the ruck all day, the remarkable disparity in the hitouts the greatest reflection of the match. The Kangaroos were disappointing, never showing the form they had displayed in that six game winning streak towards the end of the season. The three big guns all failed to fire. David Hale kicked a couple of nice goals but didn't live up to the hype. Drew Petrie, probably one of the 10 best players in the league in the 2nd half of the season, picked up just 12 disposals and 4 marks. Brent Harvey's stats (19 dispsoals 2 goals) were servicable, but he should be disappointed in his performance. For an alleged superstar he didn't have the impact he should have. The Roos had a nice season, better than their finishing of 8th reflects, but you can't help but feel that their season ended last week with that loss against Port Adelaide.

Votes

8 - Brett Kirk
8 - Jarred McVeigh
8 - Darren Jolly
7 - Ryan O'Keefe
7 - Barry Hall

A quick tip for tonight

2008-09-06T19:05:00.002+10:00

I didn't have enough time to write up a real preview for tonight's game between the Swans and Kangas, so a few quick thoughts will have to suffice.

I think it's pretty important that the Roos have never played at ANZ Stadium before. Playing football myself, it is difficult to adjust to a new ground straight away. These guys are professionals and everything, but still you can't deny that the inexperience is going to have an impact.
The conditions will favour the Swans. Rain has hit hard, so we're going to see a sloppy low-scoring game. Sydney will thrive on this. They're older and slower than the Roos, so the rain will aid them. What is key for Sydney though is this - North's four best players (arguably) are all dry weather players. Brent Harvey thrives on space to run and carry, there won't be much of that tonight. Same goes for Daniel Wells. David Hale and Drew Petrie are both big guys, and really do the big men have a significant impact in the wet. It's obviously a lot harder to hold a mark.
Something that no one has really mentioned, but has anyone considered how lifeless next week's clash is going to be between the Bulldogs and the winner of this? On one hand we'll have an absolute blockbuster between Collingwood and St. Kilda/Geelong, and then we'll have the Dogs vs. Sydney/Kangaroos in a match that will struggle to get 40, 000 people. The Collingwood match will be a lock for twice that.
It's a tough game to peg, but based on last week's form, the conditions and North's lack of experience with the ground all the signs point to Sydney. Neither of these team's is going to make anything happen in September, so this is basically the Grand Final for both these teams. Sydney 67 Kangaroos 49

1st Elimination Final: Adelaide vs. Collingwood

2008-09-06T15:07:00.006+10:00

First quarter thoughts

Bizarre first term. Brilliant opening, fantastic tackling and pressure from the Pies. Leon Davis and Josh Fraser were magnificent. Fraser's call was sensational, possibly his finest moment as a Magpie. Inspirational to see him so pumped. The game took a turn about 10 minutes in. Collingwood gave away a remarkable amount of free kicks. I've never seen so many given away in such a period of time. Rhyce Shaw was a disgrace. Dagger of a goal from Tyson Edwards

3.10 - In the space of 1 minute Rhyce Shaw gave away a goal and turned the ball over twice. Goals to Johncock and McLeod has the score Pies 28 Crows 26. Both goals can be attributed to Rhyce Shaw. Shades of the 03 Grand Final.
3.13 - Collingwood rattled.
3.15 - Andrew McLeod is killing us. Who is on him!?
3.16 - Free kicks are a joke. Rutten just elbowed McCarthy in the head, nothing paid. Stevens marks in the goal square, and Adelaide lead 34-28. Got to withstand this pressure.
3.18 - Dale Thomas starting to get into the game.
3.19 - Absolute joke. Edwards just BLATANTLY got McCarthy high, both knew it was a free kick. Umpire waved play on. Amazing.
3.20 - I have never ever seen anything like this. Collingwood vs. Adelaide + Umpires. This is actually incredible.
3.24 - Great passage from Adelaide leads to a goal. 41-30. WOW. WOW. WOW. Collingwood just got a free kick. Thank you jesus. But nevertheless Dane Swan kicks it straight to the opposition.
Order is restored.
3.27 - Massive goal from Maxwell. Fantastic leadership, beautiful kick from outside 50. Adelaide 42 Collingwood 36. Needed that one.
3.28 - Of course Adelaide respond with one of their own through Stevens' third. Goal out of nothing. 48-36.
3.30 - Dumb play from Collingwood defenders leads to Stevens' fourth. This match is a nightmare. 54-36.
3.32 - Yet another Adelaide goal, this is extraordinary. Umpires blatant bias early in the quarter killed Collingwood's momentum. 60-36.
3.36 - Good passage of play. Dane Swan lining up for an easy goal. Gotta kick this...
3.36 - And he does. For all of Adelaide's dominance it's still only a three goal game in the second term, in perfect conditions. Collingwood have to remain steady for the rest of the quarter, then come out strong in the second half.
3.37 - SWAN AGAIN! Medhurst does well on the back of a Marty Clarke clearance, Swan gets the spills and goals! Game on again! Adelaide 60 Collingwood 48.

4.09 - Remarkable start to the quarter. Fantastic goals from Maxwell and Anthony, McLeod answered, and Cloke answered again. Scores tied. 66-66.
4.11 - DAWES! Great mark. And... slots it! Pies lead! Dawes' second, and that's 72-66! Incredible match.
4.14 - 50m to Cloke (again), got to slot this Travis. Huge kick for the match...
4.18 - Moran error, saves Collingwood. Phew. And Dane Swan lining up for goal. 35m out fair angle. Right footers pocket... misses. 73-66.
4.20 - GOAL! Great work from Clarke, Medhurst and Shaw goals. 79-66! Go Pies!
4.21 - SHOCKING UMPIRING DECISION! BUT IT GOES COLLINGWOOD'S WAY! Davis to line up from 35 out directly in front. Shocking decision. Clear handball out but caleld holding the ball. HIT THE POST! 80-66. Missed opportunity there.
4.23 - Well done Dale Thomas, sets up an opportunity for Lockeyer. Has to kick this. Has to.
4.24 - GOAL! Lockeyer goals and the Pies lead 86-66! Incredible match. From 60-36 down the Pies lead 86-66!
4.26 - Travis having a shocker, but Rhyce Shaw is lifting.
4.28 - Well done from Travis to adjust a kick for Marty Clarke, but Clarke misses what should have been a goal. Hope these don't come back to haunt the Pies.
4.29 - It sure does. Bassett lining up 20m out directly in front... Goal. That hurts the Pies. 87-73. You just know this one's going to come down to the final seconds.
4.31 - YESSS YESSSS YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!! DALE THOMAS GOALS FROM NOWHERE AT THE SIREN! OUTSIDE 50! Pies lead 93-73 at three quarter time. Crows come home with the scoring end though, this game is not over by any means.

Massive last quarter ahead obviously. Thomas' goal gives the Pies the edge going in, but still anyone's match. Travis needs to lift.

4.39 - Shocking decision leads to another goal. Maric was holding the ball for about 7 seconds, nothing called, leads to Stevens' 5th goal. 93-79, we knew it wouldn't be easy.
4.41 - Swan and Davis both fuck up. 94-79.
4.42 - Shit. Moran lining up for what should be an easy goal. Stevens sets it up again.
4.43 - Missed! Let-off for Collingwood. 94-80.
4.44 - Thompson clearance, Gill lines up now... And he hits it. Fuck. 94-86. Pies need a steadier.
4.46 - And there it is! Anthony reads it off a pack, runs into an open goal and makes no mistake. That was huge. 100-86.
4.47 - Brilliant courage from Dale Thomas! Great mark!
4.49 - Cloke beaten again. Fuck.
4.51 - FUCK! Stevens kicks another goal. This is ridiculous. Shaw overran the ball and Stevens kicks what.. his 6th? 100-92. 50/50 game at this point you'd say, maybe give the slight edge to Adelaide.
4.52 - Travis drops an uncontested mark. Oh dear. Medhurst lining up on the boundary though. Big kick... CHIPS SHORT AND MARK TO COOK! Got to nail this one. 15 out directly in front. Biggest kick of his life...
4.53 - OH MY GOD. HE MISSED. THAT WAS SHOCKING.
4.55 - Medhurst and Thomas superb. Sets up just as easy a short for Dawes. Come on... HE DOES IT! GOAL! That's big. Phew. 107-93. Three goals for Dawes today, he's been excellent. Medhurst starting to have a ripper game. Dale Thomas best player in the fourth term.
4.57 - Pendles has been very good. Dawes does very well and Clarke has a difficult shot on goal now. Possibly to win the match, but I won't go that far. Would make it very difficult though... HELLO DIFFICULT! Clarke goals. Huge goal. 113-93.
5.00 - As the clock strokes five, Medhurst has the chance to ice the game... GOT IT! GAME OVER! Pies will play next week! 119-93.
5.04 - Game winding down now... Crows fans leaving.
5.05 - John Anthony really is amazing. He kicks his 3rd, and that's 24.3 for the season. Amazing. 125-94.
5.07 - Adelaide just dying out there. Two best players, Thompson and McLeod kick it out on the full with zero pressure on them.
5.08 - OVER! Ugly, bizarre match, but somehow Collingwood come away with the win. Nerve-racking final term, but the Pies dominated the second half and generally were the better team.

That was true finals football. Ugly, intense, full of errors, and absolutely enthralling. Was great to see so many players step up today. Was interesting to see so many players play so well, and so many play so bad. We'll start off with the best...

8/10

Dale Thomas was best on ground in my eyes. He was the difference in the second half. His dash, clean disposal and courage around the ground gave Collingwood something they didn't have all game. Minimal impact in the first half, but in the second half he took over the game. Huge, huge goal on the third quarter siren.

Nick Maxwell came up huge for the Pies today, leading by example. Was solid in defence, and kicked two clutch goals for the Woods.

Paul Medhurst played very well gathering 14 disposals. He kicked 1 goal 3 behinds, although replays suggest 2.2 was his return. He had three goal assists, and if Ryan Cook could kick from 10m out directly in front it would have been four. He was a spark in the final term, and kicked the sealing goal.

7/10

Scott Pendlebury was rock solid all day. Pendles gathered 24 disposals and used the ball effectively all day. He was the most consistent player in the midfield.

Shane O'Bree surprised me today. I thought he was past it, but today he filled in admirably for Scott Burns, playing well as Collingwood's in and under guy. He finished with 24 disposals, a number of clearances, and a goal assist.

Dane Swan despite his heavy tag still managed to be Collingwood's number one possession getter once again, racking up 27. Didn't have a huge impact on the match, but picked up 9 marks, and kicked two vital goals before half time.

Marty Clarke provided run and stability from the back line for four quarters. The only thing holding him from a higher mark was the fact that he missed two genuine shots at goal. He did kick a huge goal in the last term though.

Harry O'Brien played his normal solid game, rarely being beaten one on one. Provided dash out of defence, hit his targets, and had one terrific play amidst a stoppage early on.

6/10

Maybe a bit of a harsh mark for Josh Fraser. Unfortunately after a great first quarter he faded, picking up the 16 disposals, and failing to assert himself in the ruck. The acting skipper led by example in the first term, playing brilliantly. Fraser has produced some highlights in his time at Collingwood. His intercept of a Brett Montgomery handball in a 2001 match against Port Adelaide to seal the match, the goal on Anzac Day 2002, and his performance in the 2002 grand final. But today we saw probably his finest moment. The gather, and 45m snap goal late in the first term, and then the reaction, gave me goosebumps. Inspirational from the Captain.

Like Fraser, Leon Davis had a fantastic opening term before fading into the background. He used the ball brilliantly (is this guy the best kick in the comp?) and picked up 20 disposals. Kicked one fantastic goal, but missed on three occasions. Can play better.

8 touches for John Anthony, but this kid makes every kick count, and that 24.3 stat for the season is really remarkable. At this point in time he's the best kick for goal in the whole competition.

After a weak match last week Chris Dawes played a fantastic game today. Had just the 8 touches, but used his body well and slotted 3 goals.

Tarkyn Lockeyer played more in defence than his usual role in the guts today, but he played well nonetheless. Took a number of marks in the defensive 50, and kicked a super clutch goal in the third term.

Chris Bryan rebounded from a shocker last week. Won 16 hitouts, played smarter footy, and drove the Pies forward on a number of occasions.

5/10

Tyson Goldsack did everything he's known for. Chased, tackled and hustled all day. The bringdown of Andrew McLeod in the first term was fantastic. The free kick against him for getting Edwards high at the end of that quarter was costly though.

John McCarthy was on the wrong end of some shocking umpiring decisions, but still played pretty hard. Limited impact, but did some good things.

Simon Prestigiacomo held his own in defence despite his injured shoulder. Would prefer to have Wakes in the team for next week though.

4/10

Ryan Cook was solid around the ground all day racking up the 21 disposals, but that shocking (SHOCKING!) miss in the last quarter takes off 2 marks immediately. That'll haunt him for a while.

Shannon Cox did some good things (has that Pendlebury quality of having all the time in the world when he gets the ball) but needs to get more of the ball.

3/10

Nathan Brown had his colours lowered today by Scott Stevens.

Rhyce Shaw had a nightmare of a first quarter. Stupid free kicks and turnovers. Redeemed himself a little with a nice goal and a better second half. Still though, a bad performance from the lesser Shaw.

2/10

Travis Cloke played his worst match as a magpie. Shanked an important set shot, was beaten one on one, and had zero presence on the field. Lowered his own colours today, more will be expected of him next week that's for sure.

Votes

8 - Dale Thomas (Coll)
8 - Scott Stevens (Adel)
8 - Paul Medhurst (Coll)
8 - Nick Maxwell (Coll)
7 - Shane O'Bree (Coll)

We go to Adelaide.. again

2008-09-04T21:51:00.003+10:00

There are two matches this weekend that are virtually impossible to tip a winner. This is one of them. I'm surprised at the lack of respect the Pies are getting in the media. Everyone seems to have hopped on the Adelaide bandwagon pretty quickly after just one week of football. I think we're forgetting a few things. Namely;

1) It's one week! The week before Collingwood looked amazing in demolishing Sydney, and the Crows looked dreadful getting beaten up on by the Saints. I don't know how we're forgetting this. It should also be noted that the Pies bounce back quickly. Last year they lost 9 matches, none of which were consecutive. Collingwood's record this year after losses is a less impressive 4-4, but still it demonstrates that they can bounce back quite easily.

2) Collingwood own Adelaide! Okay 'own' is overdoing it, but in all seriousness Collingwood plays very well against the Crows. The Pies had a 6 game winning streak over Adelaide from 2001-04 (not irrelevant trust me), and even in their 'sucky' years of 2004 and 2005 they managed to keep things competitive with the higher placed Crows. AAMI stadium holds no fear for the Woods either. In fact, they almost like it there. We've won our past three games there, and as showed in 2002 we can win finals there too against the odds. Maybe it's just because of that 2002 and 2003 finals campaigns where it seemed like we were beating up on Adelaide teams every week, but the Crows really do not scare me. And yeah, I do realise I just put the biggest jinx of all time on Collingwood.

Anyway, cutting the match down...

Defence: As we know the Crows absolutely pride themselves on defence. The past four years have seen the Crows ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd in points conceded. That really is phenomenal, a testament to Neil Craig and his staff. What is really scary is how good the Crows are at home defensively. At home they (on average) concede like 74 points per game, compared to the 92 they give up on the road. Take out Port Adelaide and Geelong (Port because Adelaide have no home ground advantage, and Geelong because they're Geelong) and the two highest scores kicked against Adelaide at AAMI have been 86 (Carlton in a loss) and 76 (Hawthorn in a win). What worries me most is that Hawthorn went to Adelaide in solid form, played extremely well in good conditions and fully fit, and only scored 76 points. I can't state how worrying that is for a Collingwood supporter.

How do the Crows do it? Neil Craig is the main guy here. He's AFL's equivalent to an American football defensive coordinator. This guy is a numbers cruncher, he's all about structure, and he gets it right. I'd say that nobody in the league gets more out of his list than Neil Craig does. Obviously having the structure is important, but having the guys to employ it is just as vital. The Crows certainly have no shortages there. If Buddy and Roughead are the best attacking one-two punch in the league, Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten stand tall at the defensive end of the spectrum. Rutten is still one of the best lockdown fullbacks in the league (if not the best). Nathan Bock is emerging as a star. This guy stopped, genuinely stopped Buddy Franklin. That does not bode well for Travis Cloke. Surround those two with a third tall defensive stopper in Nathan Bassett and it's a formiddible key defence. Graham Johncock is an excellent decision maker and rock solid in defence. Oh yeah and there's Andrew McLeod. In short it's the best defence in the league, with apologies to Geelong.

How do the Pies combat this? Well they've got a 30 year old whose played one game in almost 2 years, a kid in his first year, a Brazillian, an Irishman and a bloke named Goldsack. It does not bode well. In all seriousness though, the Pies defence isn't that bad. Against teams like Hawthorn the lack of height and experience in defence is exploited, against the Crows we can get away with it. The Pies rank a very good 6th in defence this year, and haven't conceded more than 83 points over the past month (2 of those matches were against finals sides in perfect conditions, as well).

Still though... Moderate edge Adelaide

Midfield

The Crows have a weird midfield. They have these guys like Mackay and Symes that you just never hear about. Apparently they're good though. I guess we'll see. Anyway, it's a decent but not great midfield built around veterans Goodwin and Edwards, and gun Scott Thompson. The rucks Maric and Moran thankfully shouldn't dominate too much either. The Crows midfield doesn't scare me. Limit Scott Thompson and it should be tame.

The Pies midfield on paper doesn't really inspire, but come game day it's usually effective. The midfield rotates so much it's hard to label players as forwards or defenders or midfielders. I think Collingwood strongest midfield has Fraser in the ruck, Lockeyer, Swan and O'Bree in the guts with Leon Davis and Scott Pendlebury hovering around. It's not a great midfield, and we lack a genuine gun (*cough* Get Ben Cousins!!! *cough*), but it seems to get the job done. O'Bree is a servicable in and under player, Tarkyn Lockeyer is useful for his skill, Swan is a fantastic runner, Davis and Pendlebury are the class, and Rhyce Shaw and Dale Thomas are the dash.

Even

Forward line

Looking at the names in the Crows forward line it's hard to fathom how they're in the top eight let alone percentage off 4th spot. Without Burton and Porplyzia this forward line looks impotent. You sense that Simon Goodwin is going to have to go forward for the Crows. Who is going to be the target going forward? Kurt Tippett and Nick Gill you'd suspect. Tippett is averaging less than a goal a game as a key forward, and Nick Gill has kicked 10 goals in 8 games for the year. As good as the defence is, the forward line is terrible. The Crows just seem to conjure goals somehow.

The Pies forward line meanwhile is quite clearly dangerous. The Crows greatest weakness is the Pies greatest strength. Paul Medhurst has established himself as a star, and possibly the best player on the team. He kicked 5.5 against Adelaide last time out, and they don't really seem to have a matchup for him (Doughty? Johncock?). He'll be a key. The real key for the Pies, and for the match though is Travis Cloke. Cloke played very well against the Crows last time out, and his duel against Bock will more than likely decide the match. It's a big ask for young Travis, but he's got to step up. John Anthony is an excellent 3rd or 4th option, as well as the best set shot kick for goal in the game right now. Dawes is intriguing, and the likes of Davis, Thomas, Pendlebury will all be given time around goal.

Big edge Collingwood

Form, injuries, and last time they met: Form is a slight nod to Adelaide. They have afterall won 5 of their last 6. Three of the wins though came against Carlton, Richmond and Essendon, all games they would expect to win. We've seen the best and worst of the Crows in the past two weeks. A terrible performance filled with lack of direction backed up by a fantastic win against the Dogs dominated by hustle and defensive structure. You can bet good money we're going to see the 'good' Adelaide show up Saturday afternoon. Injuries have hit both teams horribly this year. As we stand, Adelaide have probably been hit harder. They've lost both Burton and Porplyzia, the two best forwards they have and very possibly their two best players full stop.

The Pies form I discussed earlier. We can only hope the Fremantle game was an abberation, because the Pies were in brilliant form beforehand. Injuries and retirements and suspensions have decimated Collingwood's season. Buckley and Clement retiring has killed Collingwood this year. Injuries to Rocca, Reid and Rusling have destroyed the forward line. This week we'll be without our skipper, and Shane Wakelin - probably our #1 defender these days. Then of course there is the suspensions to Alan Didak and Heath Shaw. I'm glad the club has held firm, but you sense that with Didak and Shaw Collingwood would be favourites, whereas right now they are pretty big underdogs.

The last time they met Collingwood simply run over the top of the Crows. Medhurst and Cloke dominated and Rhyce Shaw played a blinder. Scott Thompson racked up 36 disposals for Adelaide but didn't have that much of an impact surprisingly. Adelaide lost Brett Burton around half time, and in turn lost the match.

The Crows will win if...

The game is a defensive struggle played on their terms - low-scoring, low-tempo. Nathan Bock limits Travis Cloke, Leon Davis continues to struggle against teams that thrive on pressure and accountability, and Paul Medhurst stays mired in his form slump. The height of Gill and Tippett is too much for Brown and Presti, and guys like Goodwin, Vince, Van Berlo and Edwards find avenues to goal.

The Pies will win if...

The game is played at a quicker pace. Space opens up around the ground, and the Pies are smart with their forward 50 entries (unlike last week!). Josh Fraser burns his slower opponents around the ground and holds his own in the ruck. Medhurst breaks out of his form slump and dominates Adelaide like he did last time. Travis Cloke. Travis Cloke. Travis Cloke. The difference between Collingwood playing next week, or going home for good is Travis Cloke. He needs to take responsibility.

The prediction...

My fear is this - finals are almost always played on the terms of the home team. The measurements of the ground, the crowd, the familiarity, the atmosphere - all these things lead to the home team dictating the way the game is played. And I fear that the Crows will be able to turn the match into the low-tempo defensive struggle they thrive on. This match is basically a wash. Collingwood are the better team, I have little doubt of that. But we're banged up, and after last week I question our ability to win interstate. This isn't the same team as last year. The game hinges way too much on Travis Cloke, and I just can't trust him and his left boot. Unfortunate as it may sound, when in doubt, go for the home team.

Adelaide 78 Collingwood 74

Buddy, Aker and two gun midfields

2008-09-04T18:33:00.004+10:00

Finals time is the most exciting time of the year, and each finals series is different. This year is no exception. There are basically two genuine contenders, one team that's impossible to get a handle on and then five teams with clear deficiencies. Let's face it Collingwood aren't going to be in a grand final this year. Sure if everything went right for the Pies (Bulldogs beat Hawthorn, Saints get injured, wet weather preliminary final) there would be a shot. But it's too unlikely. I have set my expectations at zero for these Magpies. In my mind their season finished with that insipid performance against Freo. Anything positive they do from this point on is a bonus. So with that said, here's hoping (with reality my aid) for a Hawthorn vs. Geelong grand final. That's the game we all want to see. Obviously Geelong will be favourites, but Buddy has that thing about him where on any given day he could explode for 11 and win the match. And we know he loves the big stage. But we're four weeks away from that stuff, so lets focus on the week's matchups. I'll be breaking them down one by one.

Hawthorn vs. Western Bulldogs (Friday night MCG)

Defence: What was thought to be Hawthorn's achilles heel before the season was its inexperienced and young backline. Surprisingly the backline, while not a major strength, has not let the team down. Trent Croad has been rock solid, Stephen Gilham has defied expectations, and Luke Hodge has dropped back nicely into the quarterback role. The Hawks have a number of guys that can be placed on a back flank and provide terrific run. Ladson, Osbourne, Birchall and Young can all be placed into this role easily. In terms of points scored against, the Hawks rank a terrific 3rd in the competition. This is not only due to the solid defence they employ, but the now famous zone they use.

The Bulldogs had the same cynical expectations about their defence before the season began. Last year they ranked a paltry 14th in points scored against. This year they've improved dramatically to 7th in the competition in that department. Their back six isn't formiddible but they get the job done on a consistent basis. Brian Lake, Lindsay Gilbee and Dale Morris are steady as she goes, all would press for All-Australian consideration. The Bulldogs play an attacking free-flowing running game, the difference between this year and last can be greatly attriubuted to the much-improved defence. Still though, the stats don't lie, the Hawks have the better defence.

Slight edge Hawthorn

Midfield: Both of these teams have sensational game-breaking midfields. Both midfields run tirelessly, and break the lines. Skill is not a shortage either. The Hawks have a fantastic mix in the middle. Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell are both champions. Each player is fearless and wins their own footy. These guys are complimented by the all-round play of Sewell and Bateman, the dash of Osbourne/Ladson/Young, the experience of Shane Crawford and the hardness of Jordan Lewis. The only weakness in the midfield is the ruck. Robert Campbell still just doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

The Dogs play probably the most free-flowing attacking game in football. They're a great unit to watch, the way they make and use space, and run and carry. Matthew Boyd and Daniel Cross are rock solid, Daniel Giansiracusa is the resident magician, Adam Cooney is the star, Nathan Eagleton still contributes, and Ryan Griffen and Farren Ray, while raw, and champions in the making. The biggest edge the Dogs may have over the Hawks come Friday night is in the ruck. The duo of Ben Hudson and Will Minson will take the points over Robert Campbell and Brent Renouf (who even is that guy?). The only question is how decisive the victory will be. It's almost even in this department, but the fact that the two best players in the middle will both come from Hawthorn puts the Hawks in front again.

Slight edge Hawthorn

Forward line: The Dogs defence was bad last year but the forward line was just a big a problem. They were relying on Brad Johnson to kick 5 a game (which he did most weeks anyway) to keep them in matches. They had no tall target to kick to. That's different this year. The Dogs have a forward line where at first you don't think it's that much, then you realise they have Scott Welsh, Brad Johnson, Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Will Minson and Jason Akermanis. That my friends is a very good forward line. The Bulldogs have six guys who have kicked over 30 goals this year. I don't think any other team can claim to match that. Still though the fact remains that they don't have that gun key forward that can be counted on week in week out. Murphy, Johnson and Akermanis are skill/IQ guys, not contested mark forwards. Scott Welsh is a secondary option at best and Will Minson and Mitch Hahn aren't developed forwards. Down by 5 with 20 seconds to go it's just hard to see a long bomb forward finding a target.

The Hawks forward line is much heralded. Obviously you have Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, the best one-two punch in football. The two kicked 168 goals between them this year which is just insane. Then you have Mark Williams, probably the best #3 guy in the league. Add in the explosive Cyril Rioli and whoever is having a chopout from the midfield, be it Crawford or Osbourne or whoever, and you have the best forward line in football.

Big edge Hawthorn

Form, injuries and last time they met: Another big plus for Hawthorn obviously. The Hawks enter this match in very solid form. They're coming off an cruisy blowout over Carlton, and have won 4 of their past 5. You can stretch that to 5 out of their last 6 almost, the loss against Geelong was as much a victory as it was a loss for the Hawks. The Dogs can take some form of confidence from the fact that the Hawks are only 8-5 since round 9. Still though the buzz is good and everyone seems to be feeling ready at Hawthorn. Adding to the good fortune is the clean slate of health. They have virtually zero injury worries.

The Dogs form concerns are well documented. The Dogs have won just 2 of their last 5 matches, with the wins coming against a form-bitten Swans outfit and the injury-decimated Bombers. The Dogs looked awful against Geelong, and ever since that deflating loss they haven't really been the same. They can take confidence from the fact that the past two weeks they have actually played decent football. Scott West is the only injury casualty, disrespectful as it may sound it shouldn't be too much of a worry for the Dogs, West contributed little to campaign 2008.

The last time these teams met has to be the greatest source of confidence for the Dogs. A convincing 32-point win ended Hawthorn's winning streak at 9. The Dogs ran hard and handballed their way through Hawthorn's zone, making the Hawks look bad in the process. Cooney, Boyd, Giansiracusa and Aker were best for the Dogs, while Scott Welsh kicked 4 goals. Ladson and Mitchell were best for the Hawks, while Buddy kicked 5. It should be noted Luke Hodge did not play in this match.

The Hawks will win if...

Campbell and Renouf force a contest in the ruck and give their on-ballers a shot. The Hawks successfully clog up and prevent the Bulldogs free-flowing style with their zone. The game becomes more physical, as the Hawks will have this edge with the likes of Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell around the ball. The big thing though is this - the Dogs can't contain both Buddy and Roughead.

The Dogs will win if...

The game is a shootout. A shootout will in turn mean a free-flowing game which is what the Dogs will need to win. Their rucks do what is expected and give first use of the ball to the likes of Cooney, Cross and Ray. Hawthorn lose it mentally as they did last year against the Kangaroos. The Hawks become too Buddy-oriented.

The prediction...

It's just too difficult to see the Dogs winning this game. They haven't played a genuinely excellent game since that last win over Hawthorn. Excellence is going to be required to beat the Hawks. I struggle to see Dale Morris and Brian Lake really limiting Franklin and Roughead. Finals football is so dependent on intensity around the ball and when it comes down to it there's no doubt in my mind that Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge will die before losing this match. Can you say the same for Adam Cooney and Farren Ray? I don't think so.

Hawthorn 114 Bulldogs 89

Thud: West Coast Eagles 2008

2008-09-02T20:07:00.004+10:00

2005: 19-6 (2nd)
2006: 20-6 (1st)
2007: 15-9 (5th)
2006: 4-18 (15th)

Terminal velocity: the constant maximum velocity reached by a body falling through the atmosphere under the attraction of gravity.
Terminal velocity: the West Coast Eagles 2008.

The Eagles were truly brought back to Earth this year, and then some. Has there ever been a quicker more violent fall from grace? Including the two lost finals last year the Eagles, the same unit that finished top three after the home and away season back-to-back-to-back, is currently on a 4-20 run. That said it's not exactly the same unit. Has a team ever fallen as hard as the Eagles? Well, has a team ever lost 2 of the 50 greatest players of all time in the same off-season without receiving any immediate compensation? I doubt it. Everyone knew the losses of superstars Ben Cousins and Chris Judd would hurt. Nobody knew how much. To succeed without Cousins and Judd, the Eagles midfield would have to pick up the slack. They didn't. Daniel Kerr fell on his face, struggling when he actually managed to take the field. He's not a number one midfielder. Leaders Tyson Stenglein and Andrew Embley fell on hard times. Michael Braun hustled but was noticeably in his twilight. Matthew Rosa couldn't stay fit. Chris Masten didn't have an impact. Chad Fletcher is a shadow of his former self. Of the West Coast midfield only Matthew Priddis and Adam Selwood could claim to have solid seasons.

What was thought to be a solid midfield was terrible all year. The loss of Judd and Cousins meant that the depth chart of the midfield was altered dramatically. Instead of being the #3, #4 and #5 in the guts, Daniel Kerr, Matthew Priddis and Michael Braun were now #1 , #2, #3. Guys that love to run free like Embley and Rosa were able to be kept in closer check, with opposing teams not having to worry about Cousins and Judd. It's a pity the Eagles midfield couldn't lift as Dean Cox continued his great work in the ruck, re-asserting his position at the game's elite ruckman.

Trading the best player in the game you'd expect a handsome return. The Eagles weren't in the ideal bargaining position with Judd out of contract. They managed to get the #3 pick (Chris Masten), Josh Kennedy and the #20 pick (Tony Notte). Combined the three played 17 games for the season. Which highlights the Eagles other big problem for the season - injuries. Injuries last year were the difference between the Eagles bowing out in straight sets and playing off in a grand final. Last year Judd (groin), Kerr (thumb), Cousins (hamstring) were all casualties. This year the Eagles found themselves without Daniel Kerr (knee), Beau Waters (arm), Adam Hunter (shoulder), Josh Kennedy (shoulder), Matt Rosa (fibula), Masten (osteitis pubis) and Brent Staker (various) all missed significant time. I'm not sure how much it would have mattered, but we never really got to see the Eagles at full strength all year.

The Eagles shortcoming in the 05-06-07 seasons was its impotent forward line. It didn't really matter though with the insane amount of delivery it was getting. Hansen, Lynch and LeCras was all you needed to kick a winning score when you had Cousins and Judd putting it in the forward 50. But the Eagles lost about 200 Inside 50s and 50 goals a year straight away from the Cousins-Judd tandem and couldn't make it up. The perenially underrated Eagles back six looked weak this year as well. Hunter, Waters and Jones all missed a lot of time, and Darren Glass looked surprisingly vulnerable all year.

The major problem with West Coast this year was the culture. There were worries about the clubs drug culture during the 2005-07 span. At least it didn't affect their footy. The 2008 West Coast Eagles were victim of a losing culture. Players didn't play hard and the coach publicly threw in the towel just five or six rounds into the season. The team at times looked like it wanted to be elsewhere. The loss at home to Geelong was the most disgraceful team performance in any sport I have ever seen. In a period from 2002-2007 the Eagles lost four games by ten goals or more. This year they lost eight matches by that margin or more. They were lazy, uninterested and basically pathetic.

The Eagles of '08 showed that they could play when they wanted to. They had wins over quality opposition Brisbane, Adelaide and St. Kilda. Michael Braun inspired them to a fantastic victory over Essendon late in the season. They pushed the Kangaroos and Sydney to the wire, losing both matches by a combined 11 points. I remember watching the Sydney match, where Jude Bolton stole victory with a minute to go, and being impressed by the Eagles hustle. They weren't clean by any means, but hustle will win matches. Or take you close anyway. Unfortunately that West Coast team didn't show up very often.

The future though is surprisingly bright for the Eagles. The youth is promising. Masten will be a player, Ben McKinley is a super talent, Brad Ebert has already made an impact, and Josh Kennedy obviously has a heap of potential. Beau Wilkes, Eric Mackenzie and Will Schofield were all given time as key defenders and will continue to develop. What has West Coast in a better position than say Melbourne is that it still has a very solid middle-core. The two stars in the team Dean Cox (27) and Daniel Kerr (25) still have some very good footy in front of them. Mainstays Andrew Embley (27), Tyson Stenglein (28), Adam Hunter (27) and Darren Glass (27) will all continue to contribute for the next few years. You could do much worse than a veteran core of Cox, Kerr, Embley, Stenglein, Hunter and Glass. Add to this the midfield trio of Matt Priddis (23), Matt Rosa (21) and Adam Selwood (24) and it's hard to be too down on the Eagles' future. The Eagles hit the ground with a resounding thud, but as gravity (and football) states the faster you hit rock bottom the quicker you rise up again.

2008
Best player: Dean Cox. No contest really. Cox is the number one ruckman in the league, and is so mobile he's virtually a sixth midfielder. Still one of the ten most valuable players in the league.
Best match: Round 19, West Coast 17.11 113 def. Essendon 16.7 103 (Subiaco)
Not the Eagles best performance of the season by any means, but they displayed the future and it looked pretty good. Michael Braun inspirational.
Worst match: Round 13, West Coast 5.17 47 def. by Geelong 28.14 182 (Subiaco)
Disgraceful.
Key players: Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr, Matt Priddis, Matt Rosa, Adam Selwood, Quinten Lynch
Needs to lift: Daniel Kerr, Brent Staker. Kerr is the key to the team, if he fires the rest of the midfield will follow. Staker needs to capitalise on his unreal talent.
2009 forecast: In the lower rungs you'd suspect. But the thing is with more focus the Eagles could bounce back very quickly, they still have the list. As amazing as it may sound, finals is not out of reach. Still though - bottom 4.

2008 Grade: F

Aspiring to mediocrity: Melbourne Demons 2008

2008-09-02T09:28:00.004+10:00

Starting today I'm going to evaluate each team's season, how they fared, did they live up to expectations, who played well, outlook, etc. We start at the bottom with the dreadful Dees.

2007: 5-17 (14th)
2008: 3-19 (16th)

Last year was rock bottom. This year was worse. If there was ever an example of building from the bottom up it's these Dees. What is disturbing for Demon supporters is that despite two years at the bottom they haven't made any significant improvement. They hit rock bottom, then they hit it again. Generally I'd say that the only way is up for Melbourne, but even that is not assured. 2008 was doomed from the get-go, a devastating crushing at the hands of Hawthorn in round 1 set the tone for the season. Injuries to key forwards David Neitz and Russell Robertson virtually crippled the season. The season was more or less over after round 2 and another demolition job, this time at the hands of the Bulldogs. The Dees never enjoyed any form patches and on too many occasions simply didn't show up for matches. The one thing a fan can ask for from an obviously terrible team is that they play hard week in week out- the Demons didn't do this consistently. There were a few bright patches for the Dees, a pair of thrilling victories against Brisbane and Fremantle the highlights of the season.

With rebuilding clearly the name of the game the Dees employed a youth policy as you would expect, and the fans got a taste of what the future holds. Nathan Jones is a solid player with a bright future and will fit nicely next to Brock McLean to form a hard one-two midfield punch for years to come. Cale Morton doesn't look anything like a footballer, but he reads the play sensationally and has a future once he bulks up. Colin Garland and Clint Bartram continued to develop. Matthew Bate is a talent. The best performances though, perhaps a little disappointingly, came from the veterans. Cameron Bruce, probably the only player on the entire list that would get a game at Geelong, pieced together a fantastic season. Brad Green enjoyed a re-birth of sorts having a terrific year and will contend with Bruce for the best and fairest.

Obviously though changes will have to be made. Adam Yze and Jeff White have already been shown the door. Melbourne's next decisions will be the handling of its underachieving core of guys that should be in their prime (22-28 year olds). Guys like Brad Miller (25), Colin Sylvia (22), Matthew Whelan (28), Brent Moloney (24), Paul Wheatley (27), Nathan Carroll (27) and Daniel Bell (23). It's an extremely uninspiring bunch of players, and decisions will have to be made on all of them. The biggest enigma on the Melbourne list is Aaron Davey (24). He promised so much in the early stages of his career, but recently has delivered very little. He's pretty much regressed in the last 2 years. He's certainly at a crossroads. He has all the natural talent in the world and the capacity to win matches off his own boot but seemingly has a poor work ethic and lack of desire. His tackle count was down from 70 last year to 44 this year, displaying a poor work ethic. Melbourne should consider trading him while he'd still fetch a first round draft pick.

The veteran group and last semblance of anything that was mildly successful at Melbourne has been decimated. David Neitz has retired, Jeff White and Adam Yze shown the door. Ben Holland is gone. But who even knew he was still around. Amazingly Russell Robertson will be the oldest player on the list at the start of next season, sitting at an even 30.

The outlook for the Dees doesn't look much brighter. They'll be happy with the #1 and #17 picks, and there's little doubt those picks will be kept. What has to be depressing for Melbourne is that they've played all this youth this season, and the youth doesn't even look that good. Nathan Jones will be a solid player, not much more you suspect. Brock McLean can't get his act together. Cale Morton lacks the body of an AFL player. Aaron Davey is an underachiever. Jarred Rivers can't get on the field. The team doesn't have a genuine forward. The key for Melbourne is obviously going to be to recruit well. They've got the #1 pick this year, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have the same pick next year. Such is life at Melbourne Football Club these days.

2008
Best player: Cameron Bruce. Classy midfielder shone through the darkness. Pity he's signed through to waste the last years of his effectiveness at Melbourne.
Best match: Round 14, Melbourne 14.9 93 def. Brisbane 13.14 92 (MCG). Fairytale win, especially with the Jim Stynes factor.
Worst match: Round 19, Melbourne 5.11 41 def. by Geelong 24.13 157 (MCG). 61-0, astounding.
Key players: Brock McLean, Nathan Jones, Cameron Bruce, Brad Green.
All-Australians: No chance
Needs to lift: Aaron Davey. A matchwinner on his day, he needs to do it more often.
2009 forecast: 16th. The future isn't bright.
2008 grade: F

Hello Captain, Goodbye Coach

2008-09-01T20:07:00.003+10:00

It was a huge day for the Brisbane Lions today, probably their biggest since Grand Final day 2004. Jonathan Brown signing was the bigger surprise of the day. All signs pointed to Brown leaving the Lions for more money, security and perhaps a greater shot at a flag. He did not though, the Captain remained loyal to the only club he has known in his time in the league. Four years was the compromise that was expected, and the one that was reached. It's a fantastic deal for the Lions. They get their superstar for the remainder of his prime, and more than likely before he starts to genuinely decline. The deal with end with Brown 29 and almost 30. If Brown is still willing to play on the Lions would be able to offer him a 1 or 2 year deal at a reduced rate. Just a great deal all round for the Lions. It's not too bad for Jonathan Brown either. He certainly enhances his reputation as a true team player, someone that puts the team before his own personal interests. He gets a lengthy deal, gets to captain his team, and is part of a team with potential to contend in the near future.

The bigger story of the day has been the sudden retirement of Leigh Matthews, with a year still left on his contract. Matthews had been very unenthusiastic about his position as Brisbane coach, so the decision doesn't come as that great of a surprise. Given his age and lifelong dedication to football you've got to expect that Leigh Matthews is done. He'll exit being arguably the greatest all-round football person with a total of eight playing/coaching premierships. Good luck to him and what he chooses to do in life.

Michael Voss is now a virtual lock to take over as Lions coach. Whether or not this is a good thing remains to be seen. The ideal preparation for Voss would be to assistant coach West Coast for two years, then join the Lions with that experience under his belt. Lots of holes in this plan though, whose to say that the Lions top position will be vacant in 2011? Voss will learn on the job, and such is his legend he'll be given plenty of time to prove himself.

The Lions are the hardest team in the competition to peg. They could just as easily finish 4th as they could 14th. Last year in the mid-late portion of the season they were the best team in the competition. This year they lost to Carlton (at home), Richmond and Melbourne. They've got a supremely talented midfield - Jamie Charman is an elite ruckman, Simon Black is one of the ten best players in the comp, Luke Power is a great #2 guy, Travis Johnstone is one of the most skillful players going round, and Michael Rischitelli is a gun - and obviously a super forward line. They've got the pieces to really have a shot next year, and they'll be hoping Michael Voss is the one to take them to the next level.